Contact: Linda Heath USDA Forest Service Northeastern Research Station PO Box 640 Durham, NH
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1 Submitted to an Interagency effort focused on the Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators of Sustainable Forest Management. This manuscript, authored by Linda Heath and James Smith, was produced as part of Linda s role as Lead for Criterion 5 (carbon cycle). There are three indicators in Criterion 5. They are being written for the 2003 National Report on Sustainable Forest Management. Criterion 5, Indicator 26 (Technically reviewed). Total forest ecosystem biomass and carbon pool, and if appropriate, by forest type, age class, and successional changes. Contact: Linda Heath USDA Forest Service Northeastern Research Station PO Box 640 Durham, NH Lheath@fs.fed.us Jim Smith USDA Forest Service Durham, NH jsmith11@fs.fed.us I. Analysis A. Indicator interpretation. 1. Rationale from the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) for the Montreal Process, as recorded in the Roundtable Report: This indicator measures the national carbon pool provided by forest ecosystems. Globally, forest ecosystems are one of the largest reservoirs of both biomass and carbon. Reports on trends in this indicator are important for determining national strategies in forest management as a means to help stabilise global climate. Stabilisation of global climate is, in turn, important to national strategies regarding sustainable forest management, as climate change can significantly disturb the ecological balances that have produced the kind and distribution of forest we have today. Global changes in climate could result in the reduction of area available for forests, and/or the reduced productivity of these forests in some countries, an increase in the extent of forests or their productivity in other countries, and a loss of forest biodiversity globally. 2. Clarification of the Indicator and additions to rationale. Forests provide a primary vehicle to sequester carbon from the atmosphere, because plants utilize carbon dioxide in the photosynthesis process. During this process, the carbon becomes part of the plant mass. Thus, managing forests to sequester (store) carbon reduces the net amount of carbon dioxide accumulating in the atmosphere. Less carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may help reduce the possibility of human-induced climate change. 1
2 Reduction of greenhouse gases through quantification, monitoring, and management is the goal of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Many nations are participating in this Convention. The scientific arm of this effort is called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). IPCC has published guidance ( IPCC, 1997) on estimation approaches to greenhouse gas inventories, including carbon from land use changes and forestry. The TAC expects Indicator 26 to conform to the IPCC Guidelines. The Guidelines allow for more appropriate country-specific values to be used in developing national greenhouse gas inventories. The main intent is to provide a calculation and reporting framework to accommodate users with different levels of data, with the final results of the framework presented in a comparable way. Thus, the estimates presented in this Indicator conform to the Guidelines. Carbon can also be viewed as a measure of productivity. Forests that are considered productive will feature a greater increase in carbon per year than forests of lower productivity. Productive soils may have a high percentage of organic matter, which means a high percentage of carbon. However, soils that are wet or in cold climates may also feature a high percentage of carbon, but be relatively unproductive in terms of vegetation. B. What data are used in quantifying this indicator? Carbon in biomass of forests has not been surveyed directly. However, converting forest inventory data to carbon with a biometrical approach using factors and models is accepted as a standard method (IPCC, 1997; Barford and others, 2001). U.S. forest inventory data come from the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory & Analysis (FIA) Program. Volume, area, and other forest characteristics are compiled in Smith and others (2001) for the years 1953, 1963, 1977, 1987, and The inventory years begin on the first calendar day of each year. More detailed data are available in databases for The databases used are the Eastwide (Hansen and others, 1992), Westwide (Woudenberg and Farrenkopf, 1995), and the RPA databases ( for FIA data currently available for Hawaii and Alaska are older and based on a less intensive survey. More detailed information is available on about two-thirds of the forest land area in the U.S. on a classification of forest called timberland. Timberland is forest land that is not administratively withdrawn from harvest and is productive. Any forest land, regardless of productivity, that is administratively withdrawn from harvest is called reserved forest. Volume or biomass has not been surveyed on the other one-third of forest land, called Other Forest Land. Approximately half of the Other Forest Land is in Alaska, and most of the remainder is in the western United States. Other Forest Land is defined as forests of low productivity, and they tend to be low in carbon, and unmanaged. Consequently, they do not contribute substantially to this indicator. Carbon for the Other Forest Land was estimated based on a function of carbon per hectare by forest type for timberland. All carbon pools, with the exception of soil carbon, are estimated using the FIA inventory data or imputed inventory data, along with inventory-to-carbon relationships, developed with information from ecological studies. Live tree volumes are transformed using equations given in Smith and others (2002) to estimate above-and belowground live tree carbon and standing dead 2
3 tree carbon. Forest type, forest areas, and age information are used with equations in Smith and Heath (2002) to estimate forest floor carbon. Carbon in understory vegetation is estimated using equations based on information given in Birdsey (1996). Soil organic carbon is based on a geographic coverage derived from the USDA Soil Conservation Service (1991) STATSGO database. These estimates are based on samples of soil organic carbon measured in the field. The soil carbon coverage was overlaid on the U.S. forest type map coverage from Zhu and Evans (1994), and soil carbon per hectare by forest type was calculated. For this indicator, soil carbon density (carbon per hectare) is assumed to remain constant over time. Down dead wood was estimated as a function of region, forest type, and live volume, based on decay rates and logging residue estimates. More details about the approach can be found in Heath and others (2002). C. How should the data be interpreted relative to the rationale from the TAC? This indicator reports trends in carbon pools by forest type, age class, and successional stage, periodically from the first year inventory data were collected using a modern design, 1953, to The date of the inventory is assigned to be the first day of the year (that is, January 1). More detailed results are presented for unreserved timberland for 1997, the most recent year a compiled database is available. Forest carbon pools for Alaska and Hawaii are presented for 1987 only due to limited availability of historical data. Carbon is presented in terms of units of megagrams per hectare (Mg/ha) or megatonnes (Mt), carbon equivalent. A megatonne equals one million metric tons, and a megagram equals a million grams, which is equivalent to a metric ton. 1. Overview Total carbon in forests of the conterminous U.S. is 50,554 Mt. About 46% is in coniferous forests, 48% is in broadleaved forests, 4.5% in mixed forests (oak-pine forest type), with a minor portion in nonstocked and chapparal forests (Figure 26-1). Plantations contain only about 6% of the total forest carbon. A little over half of the carbon is in the soil, 40% is aboveground, and 8% is estimated to be belowground in roots. Aboveground carbon includes carbon in all aboveground portions of live trees, understory vegetation, standing and down dead wood, and forest floor. Roots comprise belowground carbon. Soil carbon is estimated to a depth of one meter. Based on 1987 estimates (Birdsey, 1992), forest land of Alaska and Hawaii contains 14,019 Mt of carbon (Figure 26-2). Thus, forest land of the conterminous U.S. contains about 80% of the carbon of all U.S. forests. The trend of carbon pools from 1953 to 1997 for non-soil components of forest land of the conterminous U.S. is presented in Figure Carbon increased almost 46% over the period, from 16,613 Mt to 24,292 Mt. Most of the increase was due to carbon increases in vegetation, particularly live trees. For this analysis, soil carbon changed if area of forest type changed or if total forest area changed. Land use change effects on soil carbon densities are not included. Preliminary analysis suggests that the land use change effects are larger than the effects of forest type changes; therefore, the estimates presented here should be interpreted cautiously. Aboveground tree biomass for forest land of the conterminous U.S. in 1997 is presented in Table 26-1 by forest type. Total aboveground live and dead tree biomass is estimated at 28,505 Mt dry 3
4 weight biomass on 250,036 thousand hectares of forest land. The redwood forest type features the largest biomass density at Mg/ha, while nonstocked forests in the Eastern U.S. contain the least biomass, 8.2 Mg/ha. Soil carbon density by forest type is also presented in Table 26-1 by forest type. For this indicator, soil carbon density is assumed to remain constant over time. For context, global carbon stocks in the 1990 s in vegetation and soil carbon pools to a depth of 1 m were estimated to be 2,477,000 Mt on the total land area of 15,120 million ha (IPCC, 2000). Of this, forests (tropical, boreal, and temperate) held about 46% of the carbon stocks on 4,170 million ha. Temperate forests were estimated to contain 159,000 Mt carbon on 1,040 million ha (IPCC, 2000). Compared to these estimates, U.S. forests contain 7% of the forest land area in the world, and 4% of the carbon in forests. 2. Regional trends The trends of non-soil forest carbon from 1953 to 1997 by forest type are presented for the Eastern U.S. in Figure 26-4a and the Western U.S, excluding Alaska and Hawaii, in Figure 26-4b. Soil carbon is not included in these figures because land use effects are not yet included in the soil carbon estimates. The oak-hickory forest type contains more carbon than any other forest type, due to the combination of its reasonably high carbon density and its occupying the largest area (Table 26-1). The maple-beech-birch type increased over the period to contain the second highest amount of carbon in a forest type. Among forest types in the West, Douglas-fir contains the most carbon. The lower carbon amount for Douglas-fir in 1977 resulted from the lower amount of area recorded in the 1977 surveys. Over the period, carbon in the fir-spruce type increased while carbon in ponderosa pine decreased. Carbon in nonstocked forests in both the East and West decreased over the period, because the area of forests in nonstocked status declined. Forest carbon trends increased on forest land of the conterminous U.S. over the period for most regions (Figure 26-5). The exceptions to the general trend are the Pacific Northwest and Pacific Southwest regions, which feature relatively stable carbon pools. The Rocky Mountain region contains the most carbon, because it contains the largest forest land area, followed by the South Central and Northeast (NE) region. The North Central (NC) and NE regions gained the most carbon over the period, with the NC region gaining 1,840 Mt and the NE gaining 1,820 Mt over the period. The soil carbon pool is not included in the estimates by region so that simple increases or decreases of area of forest land do not affect the results. This type of change is not a transfer of carbon from the atmosphere to forests, but a transfer of carbon already sequestered from one sector (for example, agriculture) to another sector (forestry). Data on unreserved timberland of the conterminous U.S. feature enough details so that forest carbon pools can be estimated by age-class (Figure 26-6) and successional stage (Figure 26-7). Unreserved timberland contain about 85% of the forest carbon in the conterminous U.S. Almost 50% of forest carbon is in stands less than 60 years old, and about 80% is in stands less than 100 years old. About 6% of the carbon on unreserved timberland is in uneven-aged forests. However, due to the methods used in collecting and compiling the data, uneven-aged forests may be under-represented in the data, as compared to the true estimate. Stand-size class is used to 4
5 estimate the successional stage of forests. Almost 56% of forest carbon of unreserved timberland of the conterminous U.S. is in sawtimber stands (Figure 26-7). D. Limitations of data provided The data are compiled from a scientifically-based sample, designed to provide reliable volume and area data at a pre-determined level of precision. For instance, FIA field surveys were designed to provide forest area data within 3 percent of the true value for every million acres of forest, using a 67% confidence limit. Using a modeling approach to transform volumes to carbon adds elements of uncertainty into the models and conversion factors. (See Smith and Heath (2000), Smith and Heath (2001) and Heath and Smith (2000) for a discussion of uncertainty in the U.S. forest carbon budget.) The volume information is limited on Other Forest Land, and the uncertainty of modeled estimates, especially the changes in volume over time, is unknown. In particular, data have not been sampled in areas in the Western U.S. on which it is thought that volume and dead wood mass have increased relative to the 19 th Century forests due to fire suppression. It has been hypothesized that a large amount of carbon has been sequestered due to fire suppression on forest- and rangeland (Houghton and others, 1999), but these areas have not been surveyed in the past. Long-term land use history is also an important variable needed to estimate carbon in forests accurately, particularly soil carbon. Historical land use statistics have not yet been included in the soil carbon estimates. E. If current data are not adequate to measure the indicator, what options are available for remedy? The current data and modeling approach are adequate to provide a measure of the indicator. However, in the future, more forest carbon pools will be surveyed on all forest land. The FIA surveys are currently being updated to an annualized inventory (Gillespie, 1999), with a sample being conducted in a portion of every state in the U.S. every year. In addition, other attributes, such as soil carbon, down dead wood, and forest floor carbon, will be sampled in the new inventory design. Full implementation of these new inventories should be complete by the year II. Problems related to scientific, social/political, economic, and institutional concerns. Carbon is an issue related to the entire land base. FIA surveys the entire land base to estimate area of forests, and then measures many attributes of forested plots. Carbon is also an important aspect of cropland, rangeland, and wetlands. However, land areas of major land uses are surveyed by the USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service in their National Resource Inventory (NRI). (See for more information about the NRI.) The NRI is a statistically-based sample of land use and natural resource conditions and trends on U.S. nonfederal lands. The forest land areas as estimated by the NRI do not match the FIA-based inventories of forest areas and land use changes. To properly estimate carbon changes across the land base, the NRI and FIA differences must be reconciled and must include all lands of the United States. 5
6 III. Cross-cutting issues/relationships with other indicators. Fundamentally, forest carbon stocks are estimated by multiplying the area of forest land by the carbon density of the forest. (Carbon density is the average mass of carbon per area.) Aboveground carbon density is related to forest volume or biomass. Thus, the area and biomass used to calculate this indicator should be consistent with the estimates of area and forest characteristics in the other indicators. The main related indicators are Indicator 2, Extent of area by forest type and by age class or successional stage and Indicator 11, Total growing stock of both merchantable and nonmerchantable tree species on forest land available for timber production. Carbon information summarized by plantation should be consistent with data in Indicator 12, Area and growing stock of plantations of native and exotic species. Information about soil organic carbon should be consistent with Indicator 21, Area and percent of forest land with significantly diminished soil organic matter and/or changes in other soil chemical properties. This indicator is directly related to the other Criterion 5 indicators, Indicators 27 and 28. Indicator 27 is estimated directly by subtracting carbon pools from successive years and dividing by the difference between the years to produce annual changes in carbon. Indicator 28 is a measure of the woody material removed from forests as products. To derive the greatest benefit from retaining carbon stocks and/or reducing emissions, both forest and harvested wood components should be considered. Carbon as a productivity issue overlaps with Criterion 2, Maintenance of productive capacity of forest ecosystems, and Criterion 4, Conservation and maintenance of soil and water resources. Generally, forests of high productivity will exhibit a greater increase in carbon annually than forests of low productivity. The ability to understand carbon pools depends on knowledge of the carbon cycle, which should be discussed under Indicator 63, Development of scientific understanding of forest ecosystem characteristics and functions. Forest carbon pools should also be a consideration for Indicator 67, Ability to predict impacts on forests of possible climate change. Two other indicators that should be consistent with the information on which Indicator 26 is based are Indicator 60, Availability and extent of up-to-date data, statistics and other information important to measuring or describing indicators associated with criteria 1-7, and Indicator 61, Scope, frequency and statistical reliability of forest inventories, assessments, monitoring and other relevant information. These two indicators discuss the legal, institutional and economic framework for forest conservation and sustainable management and its capacity to measure and monitor changes in the conservation and sustainable management of forests. IV. Suggested guidance on use of the data. USDA Forest Service FIA data currently available were collected periodically by state over a number of years that do not necessarily correspond to the years listed in the figures. Thus, the carbon pool reported for a specific year (such as 1953 or 1997) does not strictly correspond to 6
7 that year, but it is the year associated with the compilation of the FIA data. Thus, the estimates should not be interpreted as corresponding exactly with the given year. Literature Cited Barford, C.C, S.C. Wofsy, M.L. Goulden, J.W. Munger, E.H. Pyle, S.P. Urbanski, L.Hutyra, S.R. Saleska, D. Fitzjarrald, and K. Moore Factors controlling long- and short-term sequestration of atmospheric CO 2 in a mid-latitude forest. Science 294: Birdsey, R.A Carbon storage for major forest types and regions in the conterminous United States, and Appendix 2. P. 1-25, and , in: Sampson, R.N., and D. Hair, eds. Forests and Global Change: Forest management opportunities for mitigating carbon emissions. Volume 2. American Forests. Washington, DC. 379 p. Birdsey, R.A Carbon Storage and Accumulation in United States Forest Ecosystems. USDA Forest Service, Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-59. Washington, DC. 51 p. Gillespie, A.J.R Rationale for a national annual forest inventory program. Journal of Forestry 97(12): Hansen, M.H., T. Frieswyk, J.F. Glover, J.F. Kelly The Eastwide Forest Inventory Database: user s manual. Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-151. USDA Forest Service, North Central Forest Experiment Station, St. Paul, MN. 48 p. Heath, L.S., and J. E. Smith An assessment of uncertainty in forest carbon budget projections. Environmental Science & Policy 3: Heath, L.S., J.E. Smith, and R.A. Birdsey Carbon Trends in U.S. Forest Lands: A Context for the Role of Soils in Forest Carbon Sequestration. In: Kimble, J.M, R.A. Birdsey, R. Lal, and L.S. Heath, eds. The Potential of U.S. Forest Soils to Sequester Carbon and Mitigate the Greenhouse Effect. Lewis Publishers, CRC Press, in press Houghton, R.A., J.L. Hackler, and K.T. Lawrence The U.S. carbon budget: contributions from land-use change. Science 285: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Land use, land-use change, and forestry: A special report of the IPCC. Watson, R.T, I.R. Noble, B.Bolin, N.H. Ravindranath, D.J. Verardo, and D.J. Dokken (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 377 p. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Revised 1996 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volumes 1-3. IPCC/OECD/IEA, Paris, France. 650 p. Smith, J.E, and L.S. Heath Estimators of forest floor carbon for United States forests. USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, in review. 7
8 Smith, J.E., L.S. Heath, and J.C. Jenkins Forest tree volume-to-biomass models and estimates for live and standing dead trees of U.S. forests. USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, in review. Smith, James E. and Linda S. Heath Identifying influences on model uncertainty: an application using a forest carbon budget model. Environmental Management 27(2): Smith, James E. and Linda S. Heath Considerations for interpreting probabilistic estimates of uncertainty of forest carbon. P In: Joyce LA and R. Birdsey, eds. The Impact of Climate Change on America's Forests, USDA Forest Service, General Technical Report RMRS- GTR p. Smith, W.B., J.S. Vissage, D.R. Darr, and R.M. Sheffield Forest Resources of the United States, Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-219. USDA Forest Service, North Central Research Station, St. Paul, MN, 191 pp. USDA Soil Conservation Service State Soil Geographic Data Base (STATSGO): Data users guide. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, National Resource Conservation Service. Misc. Pub. Number 1492, U.S. Government Printing Office. Woudenberg, S.W., and T.O. Farrenkopf The Westwide Forest Inventory Database: user s manual. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-137. USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station, Ogden, UT. 67 p. Zhu, Z. and D. L. Evans U.S. forest types and predicted percent forest cover from AVHRR data. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 60 (5):
9 Figure Forest carbon pool a (Mt) by broad forest types and regeneration status (natural or plantation) for all forest land of the conterminous United States, ,000 25,000 Carbon pool (Mt) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Aboveground Belowground Soil 0 N P N P N P N P Coniferous Broad- Mixture Nonstocked/ leaved Chaparral N=Natural regeneration, P=Plantation a Aboveground carbon pools are aboveground live vegetation, standing and down dead tree mass, and forest floor. Belowground C pools are live and dead coarse roots. Soil C is soil organic carbon to a depth of 1 meter, including the soil order Histosols. 9
10 Figure Forest carbon pools (Mt) of Alaska (a) and Hawaii (b), 1987 (Birdsey, 1992). (a) Alaska Soil Forest floor Understory Trees Carbon pool, Mt (b) Hawaii Soil Forest floor Understory 60 Trees Carbon pool, Mt 10
11 Figure Forest ecosystem non-soil carbon pools (Mt) for all forest land of the conterminous U.S., ,000 Carbon pool (Mt) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Year Abovegrd live tree Abovegrd standing dead tree Understory Down dead wood (incl stumps) Forest floor Belowground live tree (roots) Belowground dead wood carbon 11
12 Figure 26-4a. Total forest ecosystem non-soil carbon pools (Mt) by forest types for all forest land of the Eastern U.S., ,000 White-Red-Jack Spruce-Fir 5,000 Longleaf-Slash Carbon pool (Mt) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Loblolly-Shortleaf Oak-Pine Oak-Hickory Oak-Gum-Cypress Elm-Ash- Cottonwood Maple-Beech-Birch Aspen-Birch Years Other Eastern types Nonstocked-East 12
13 Figure 26-4b. Total forest ecosystem non-soil carbon pools (Mt) by forest types for all forest land of the Western U.S., excluding Alaska and Hawaii, ,000 Douglas Fir Ponderosa Pine 2,500 Western White Pine Carbon pool (Mt) 2,000 1,500 1, Fir-Spruce Hemlock-Sitka Spruce Larch Lodgepole Pine Redwood Other hardwoods Other Forest Types Pinyon-Juniper Years Chaparral Nonstocked 13
14 Figure Carbon of all non-soil forest ecosystem components (Mt) by regions for all forest land of the conterminous U.S., ,000 5,000 Carbon pool (Mt) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 NC NE PN PS RM SC SE Year Regions: NE=Northeast, NC=North Central, PN=Pacific Northwest, PS=Pacific Southwest, RM=Rocky Mountain, SE=Southeast, SC=South Central. Regions follow the regions in Smith and others (2001), with the exception of the States of ND, eastern SD, NB, and KS, which are compiled with the NC region. 14
15 Figure Forest ecosystem carbon pools (Mt) of unreserved timberland of the conterminous U.S. by age-class, Uneven refers to uneven-aged stands. 10,000 Carbon pool (Mt) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Abovegrd live veg C Dead mass C 0 Belowgrd roots < Age class Uneven Soil C (1 m) Figure Forest ecosystem carbon pools (Mt) of unreserved timberlands of the conterminous U.S. by successional stage a, ,000 25,000 Carbon pool (Mt) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Seedling/sapling Poletimber Sawtimber Stand size class Nonstocked Abovegrd live veg C Dead mass C Belowgrd roots Soil C (1 m) a Stand size class is being used to represent successional stage. Stand size class is determined by the size of the predominant stocking of all live trees present on the plot. Seedling and sapling trees are less than approximately 12.7 cm in diameter breast height (DBH). The DBH range in sawtimber trees is greater than 22.9 cm for softwoods and 27.9 cm for hardwoods. Poletimber trees are the intermediate size between seedlings and saplings, and sawtimber. 15
16 Table Aboveground live and dead tree biomass (Megagram, Mg=metric ton), soil organic carbon (Megatonne, Mt=million metric ton), and forest area (thousand hectares) by forest type for all forest land of the conterminous U.S., Aboveground live and dead tree Soil organic Forest Types biomass (dry weight) carbon (1 m) Forest area Mg/ha Mt Mg C/ha (thousand ha) White-Red-Jack ,795 Spruce-Fir ,079 Longleaf-Slash ,351 Loblolly-Shortleaf , ,293 Oak-Pine , ,766 Oak-Hickory , ,972 Oak-Gum-Cypress , ,256 Elm-Ash-Cottonwood ,498 Maple-Beech-Birch , ,694 Aspen-Birch ,278 Other Eastern types ,953 Nonstocked-Eastern US ,074 Douglas Fir , ,947 Ponderosa Pine , ,534 Western White Pine Fir-Spruce , ,845 Hemlock-Sitka Spruce ,586 Larch Lodgepole Pine ,043 Redwood Other hardwoods , ,410 Other Forest Types ,544 Pinyon-Juniper ,999 Chaparral ,099 Nonstocked- Western US ALL , ,036 16
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