SUMATRAN RHINO VIABILITY ANALYSIS WORKSHOP BRIEFING BOOK BANDAR LAMPUNG, SOUTH SUMATRA, INDONESIA NOVEMBER 1993 SUPPORTING ORGANIZATIONS:

Save this PDF as:
Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "SUMATRAN RHINO VIABILITY ANALYSIS WORKSHOP BRIEFING BOOK BANDAR LAMPUNG, SOUTH SUMATRA, INDONESIA NOVEMBER 1993 SUPPORTING ORGANIZATIONS:"

Transcription

1 l!! l ~! l!.j ', SUMATRAN RHNO POPULATON AND HABTAT VABLTY ANALYSS WORKSHOP BREFNG BOOK BANDAR LAMPUNG, SOUTH SUMATRA, NDONESA 1113 NOVEMBER 1993 PREPARED BY RONALD L. TLSON AND KATHY TRAYLORHOLZER MNNESOTA ZOO SUPPORTNG ORGANZATONS: NDONESANFOREST TECTON AND NATURE CONSERVATON (PHPA); UCN/SSC CAPTVE BREEDNG SPECALST GROUP; NTERNATONAL RHNO FOUNDATON (RF); MNNESOTA ZOO; NYZS/NTERNATONAL WLDLFE CONSERVATON PARK; CNCNNAT ZOO AND BOTANCAL GARDEN; THE HOWLETTS AND PORT L YMPNE FOUNDATON A Joint Endeavo of the ndonesian Foest Potection and Natue Consevation (PHPA) (j' ~C)\ & UCN/SSC Captive Beeding Specialist Goup ~fll ~,; '""«'' C.J>".y l'topopu~ ~

2 !.!,. ~. p The wok of the Captive Beeding Specialist Goup is made possible by geneous contibutions fom the following membes of the CBSG nstitutional Consevation Council: Consemtos ($ 10,000 and above) Austalian Species Management Pogam Chicago Zoological Society Colombus Zoological Gadens Denve Zoological Foundation Fossil Rim Wildlife Cente Fiends of Zoo Atlanta Geate Los Angeles Zoo Association ntenational Union of Diectos of Zoological Gadens Jacksonville Zoological Pale Lubee Foundation Metopolitan Toonto Zoo Minnesota Zoological Gaden New Yok Zoological Society Omaha's Heny Dooly Zoo Saint Louis Zoo White Oak Plantation Zoological Paks Boad of New South Wales Zoological Society of Cincinnati / Zoological Society of San Diego The WLDS Guadians ($5,000 $9,999) Cleveland Zoo Detoit Zoological Pale (5 yea commitment} King's sland Wild Animal Habitat Loo Paque Noth Caolina Zoological Pak John G. Shedd Aquaium Toledo Zoological Society Potectos ($1,000 $4,999) Audubon nstitute Caldwell Zoo Calgay Zoo Cologne Zoo El Paso Zoo Fedeation of Zoological Gadens of Geat Bitain and eland Fot Wayne Zoological Society Gladys Pote Zoo Japanese Association of Zoological Paks and Aquaiums Jesey Wildlife Pesevation Tust Kansas City Zoo The Living Deset M;uwell Zoological Pak Milwaukee County Zoo NOAHS Cente Noth of Cheste Zoological Society Oklahoma City Zoo Phoenix Zoo Paignton Zoological and Botanical Gadens Penscyno Wildlife Pak Philadelphia Zoological Gaden Pittsbugh Zoo Rivebanks Zoological Pak Royal Zoological Society of Anwcp Royal Zoological Society of Scotland San Fancisco Zoo Schocnbunn Zoo Sunset Zoo (10 yea commitment} The ZOO Uban Council of Hong Kong Washington Pak Zoo Wilhelma Zoological Gaden Woodland Pak Zoo Zoological Society of London Zoological Society of Wales Zuich Zoological Gaden Stewads ($500 $999) Aalbog Zoo AizonaSonom Deset Museum Stewads ($500 $999) continued) BanhamZoo Copenhagen Zoo Dutch Fedeation of Zoological Gadens Eie Zoological Pal: Fota Wildlife Pak Givslcud Zoo Ganby Zoological Society Howletts & Pot Lympne Foundation Knoxville Zoo National Geogaphic Magazine National Zoological Paks Boad of South Afica OdenseZoo Oana Pale Wildlife Tust Paadise Pak Pote Chaitable Tust RostockZoo Royal Zoological Society of Sou then Austalia Rottedam Zoo Species Suvival Committee of Japan Tiepalc. Rheine Twycoss Zoo Union of Geman Zoo Diectos Wellington Zoo Wold Paot Tust Yongn Famland Zoo de a Casa de Campo Madid Zoological Society of Wales Cuatos ($250 $499) Cotswold Wildlife Pak Empoia Zoo Roge Williams Zoo Thigby Hall Wildlife Gadens Topeka Zoological Pak Topical Bid Gadens Sponsos ($50 $249) Afican Safai Apenheul Zoo Belize Zoo Claws 'n Paws Damstadt Zoo Dehe Pak Zoo Fota Wildlife Pak Hancock House Publishes Kew Royal Botanic Gadens Nagoya Aquaium National Audubon Society Reseach Ranch Sanctuay i>aco Faunistico "La Tobiea Potte Pak Zoo Touo Pae Fance Wassenaa Wildlife Beeding Cente Suppotes ($25 S49) Alameda Pak Zoo Buuonwood Pak Zoo Chahinkapa Zoo DGHT Abcitsguppe Anuen ntenational Cane Foundation Janlin aux Oiseaux King Khalid Wildlife Reseach Cente MauiZoo Natal Paks Boad Ogle bay's Good Childen's Zoo Safai Pak Speedwell Bid Sanctuay Sylvan Heights Watefowl Ueno Zoological Gadens Wildwood Zoological Animal Exchange Zoo Consevation Outeach Goup

3 SUMATRAN RHNO POPULATON AND HABTAT VABLTY ANALYSS WORKSHOP TABLE OF CONTENTS Section 1 Oveview and Oganization fo Wokshop Poblem Statement & Agenda Section 2 Lette fom the Pesident Soehato of ndonesia Section 3 ndonesian Rhino Consevation Stategy (1993) Section 4 ndonesian Rhinoceos Consevation Action Plan Pioities (1993) SectionS UCN/SSC Asian Rhino Specialist Goup UCN/SSC Asian Rhino Action Plan (1989) UCN/SSC Asian Rhino Specialist Goup Repot to the UNEP Confeence (1993) Section 6 Oveview of Sumatan Potected Aeas and GS Analysis Oveview of ndonesia and Sumata Potected Aeas Gunung Leuse National Pak: Map, desciption and GS Data Rhino Poaching in Gunung Leuse National Pak KeinciSeblat National Pak: Map, desciption and GS Data Bebak Game Reseve: Map, desciption and GS Data Baisan Selatan National Pak: Map, desciption and GS Data Way Kambas Game Reseve: Map, desciption and GS Data Othe Potected Aeas of Sumata Section 7 Oveview of Votex and Population and Habitat Viability Analysis UCN/SSC CBSG Population and Habitat Viability Analysis Wokshops Votex: Simulation model of stochastic population changer. Lacy Votex: Compute simulation model fo population viability analysisr. Lacy Section 8 Asian Rhino Life Histoy Chaacteistics Section 9 TRAFFC: Wold Tade in Rhino HonA Review (1992) Section 10 Yayasan Mita Rhino Poposal fo Rhino Consevation in ndonesia Section 11 ntenational Studbook fo Sumatan Rhino (1993)

4 ,! j SUMATRAN RHNO POPULATON AND HABTAT VABLTY ANALYSS WORKSHOP. BREFNG BOOK f ~ i \ SECTON 1: WORKSHOP OVERVEW ~.,

5 SUMATRAN RDNO PHVA WORKSHOP Poblem Statement 1 Pesident Soehato of the Republic of ndonesia, in his lette of 25 januay 1990 to the Duke of Edinbugh, Pesident of the Wold Wildlife Fund fo Natue, stated: " 1 fully suppot the 'Pointsof Ageement' with its ecommendations to save the java and Sumata Rhinos. have equested the Ministe of Foesty to take the necessay steps and the Ministe of State fo Population and Envionment to coodinate ou effots in saving and enhancing ou Rhino population. " Peviously, the UCN/SSC CBSG, in conjunction with Depatment of Foest Potection and Natue Consevation of ndonesia (PHPA), coodinated a javan Rhino Population Viability Analysis Wokshop held in Bogo in june 1989 in which these Points of Ageement wee developed. As a followup, an ntenational Rhino Confeence was held in San Diego in May 1991, and an ndonesian Rhino Consevation Wokshop was conducted in Bogo in Octobe Exteme polaization between the ex situ and in situ consevation agendas pecluded the initiation of any implementation of these Points of Ageement. Out of this contovesy, the ndonesian Rhino Consevation Stategy, and its companion document, the ndonesian Rhinoceos Consevation Action Plan Pioities, was poduced in june These documents give pecise diection fo the implementation of consevation stategies that will fulfill the statements of Pesident Soehato of ndonesia. This Sumatan Rhino PHV A Wokshop is designed to detemine specific management stategies fo the feeanging populations of Sumatan hinos and how in situ pogams in Sumata might contibute to this pocess. The Sumatan hinoceos (Diceohinus sumatensis) was once found fom the foothills of the Himalayas in Bhutan and easten ndia, though Myanma, Thailand, and the Malay peninsula, and on the islands of Sumata and Boneo. Thee have also been unconfimed epots of the species in Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. n geneal this species has suvived much bette in its native habitats than the javan hino. This may be patly because it mainly inhabits the mountains and foests of highe elevations which wee not so subject to development and logging. The lagest numbe of the species D. sumatensis now suvives on the island of Sumata and it is possible that seveal hunded animals still exist. Howeve, the island is now in a phase of intense development esulting fom ndonesia's tansmigation pogam and the habitat available to the species is being apidly educed. n addition the shee size of the island, compaed to the available PHPA staff fo potecting the species, makes adequate potection almost impossible. Even in aeas whee thee is a stong pesence of PHPA staff, poaching is active.

6 2 An estimated Sumatan hinos ae living in seven o moe mostly disjunct potected aeas: living in KeinciSeblat National Pak (14,846 km 2 ), in Gunung Leuse National Pak (8,025 km 2 ), 2560 Baisan Selatan National Pak (3,568 km 2 ), pehaps in Bebak National Pak ~1,900 km 2 ); one was eputed to have been sighted in Way Kambas National Pak (1,300 km ), and a few may still emain in foests nea Togamba, Gunung Patah, Gunung Abongabong and LestenLukup. These numbes, fom the UCN sse Asian Rhino Action Plan fom 1989, ae estimates only, ae not based on quantitative methods, and ae thus not consideed eliable. Thee is little o no gene flow among these highly fagmented populations, poaching fom huntes with fieams and tappes with wie snaes is ongoing but undetemined in scope, and human encoachment continues to eode the edges of the potected aeas. Clealy, this species is citically endangeed. The ntenational Studbook fo Swnatan Rhinos as of 20 August 1993 lists 10 males and 14 females living in captivity, of which two males and thee females ae at Taman Safai ndonesia, Ragunan Zoo and the Suabaya Zoo. No offsping have yet been poduced. The Sumatan Rhino Tust, which was actively captuing isolated hinos on the westen edge of Keinci Seblat National Pak, has teminated its Memoandum of Undestanding with PHPA. Thus, thee is no in situ pogwn undeway in ndonesia othe than the small collection of Sumatan hinos being held at thee zoos. Clealy thee is a need to eevaluate the ole of how in situ pogams can contibute to a holistic consevation pogam fo the species in ndonesia. To povide diection to these issues, the goals of this wokshop ae designed to: 1) conduct a metapopulation and habitat viability assessment by utilizing a Geogaphic nfomation System (GS) fo all wild populations of Sumatan hinos; 2) fomulate management stategies fo each population with isk assessments to pevent extinction and achieve the objective of maintaining viable, selfsustaining populations within the histoic ange of this subspecies; and 3) pepae a epot of the analyses and esults of the meeting with ecommendations to the ndonesian Diectoate Geneal fo PHPA and the UCN/SSC Asian Rhino Specialist Goup. Wokshop Objectives 1) Estimate pobable populations of hinos in potected aeas of Sumata using GSbased habitat assessment techniques, the degee of fagmentation of these populations, and thei pobabilities fo longtem suvival with no intevention; 2) Detemine numbes of hinos and subpopulations equied fo vaious pobabilities of suvival and pesevation of genetic divesity fo specified peiods of time (i.e. 50, 100, 200 yeas) given known sizes of potected aeas; 3) Poject the potential expansion o decline of hino population numbes due to poaching, habitat alteation and diffeing management plans; 4) Evaluate possible ole of in situ captive popagation as a component of the above management options; 5) Evaluate cuent management, consevation and education effots in place in othe counties which could seve as models fo Sumatan hinos; 6) Recommend additional scenaios fo action and futue needs fo eseach. """

7 The combination of the above objectives fom the basis fo suppoting and efining the ndonesian Rhino Consevation Stategy aleady in place. The document will be pepaed in daft fom duing the wokshop, and will be eviewed and evised by all paticipants duing the wokshop to achieve consensus on its content befoe depatue. t will include specific ecommendations and pioities fo consevation management of both ex situ and in situ pogams. Once consensus is eached the document will be tanslated into Bahasa ndonesian fo distibution and implementation thoughout ndonesia. The esults of this wokshop will be efined and used as a model fo developing PHV As fo emaining extant populations elsewhee in Asia. Submitted by: Ronald L. Tilson, Ph.D. CBSG Sumatan Rhino PHVA Wokshop Coodinato 3.,,

8 AGENDA SUMAlRAN RHNO POPUlAllON AND HABTAT VABLTY ANALYSS (PHVA) WORKSHOP MARCO POLO HOTB., BANDAR LAMPUNG, SOUTH SUMATRA 1113 NOVEMBffi 1993 Sunday, 7 Novembe Wokshop paticipants and at1endees aive in Banda Lampung. Late aftenoon egistation. 18:Q019:00 Wokshop Coodinatos meeting (afte dinne} MondayWednesday, 810 Novembe Asian Bephant and ~VVinged Wood Duck PHVA Wo1cshops llusday, 11 Novembe 09:0Q12:00 Sumatan Rhino PHVA Wokshop convenes. Opening comments (Sutisna, Koma, Banda Lampung officials, Seal} Oveview of hino distibution and tlveats (Widodo, Santiapillai, Giffiths, van Stien} Suvey of Sumatan hinos in Keinci Seblat NP (Wells, Fanklin, Mega, Sukianto} 12:Q013:00 13:3014:30 14:3017:30 Lunch Pesentation of maplinked database and land use pat1ens (Tilson, Sukianto} PHVA oveview/initial modelling of hino populattons and GS (Seal, Widodo, Santiapillai} Woking goups: Potected aeas, votex models, in situ pogams (Koma, PHPA, YMR & RF} Discussion and data veification of woking goups 18:00 Dinne 20:00 Continue woking goups Rhino videos Fiday, 12 Novembe 08:3012:00 Status epots of woking goups (Koma, PHPA Chiefs, YMR & RF} Oveview of wild Sumatan hino management stategies (Koma, Seal, Santiapillai} 12:Cl013:00 Lunch 13:3016:30 Woking goups: Evaluation of management stategies (PHPA staff, YMR & RF} 18:00 Dinne 19:30 Continue woking goups Sabl"day, 13 Novembe 08:3012:00 Woking goup epots (PHPA staff, YMR & RF} Genetic management of metapopulations ntegation of management stategies (Seal, Tilson} 12:Q013:00 Lunch 13:30 Wokshop daft ecommendations: oveall and sitespecific (Wokshop Coodinatos} Wokshop wapup

9 , Wokshop Paticipants Sutisna Wataputa, Diecto Geneal of PHPA Koma Soemana, Diecto of Natue Consevation, PHPA Widodo Ramono, Chief SubDiectoate Species Consevation, PHPA Local govenment (8 povinces) Kanwil (8 paticipants) Balai/SubBalai (8 paticipants) PHPA (3 additional paticipants) Fiends of the ndonesian Rhino Foundation (2 paticipants) Nico van Stien, National Paks nvestment, ndonesia Philip Wells, Sumatan Rhino Suvey Poject Neil Fanklin, Sumatan Rhino Suvey Poject Mike Giffiths, Gunung Leuse National Pak Sukianto Lusli, W\NFKeinci Seblat National Pak Ulysses Seal, UCN SSC CBSG Chai R. Sukuma, UCN/SSC Asian Elephant SG Chai Chales Santiapillai, UCN/SSC Asian Elephant SG Executive Secetay Jim Jackson, Fossil Rim Wildlife Cente, Glenose, TX, USA Thomas Foose, ntenational Rhino Foundation James Dohety, AAZPA Sumatan Rhino SSP CoCoodinato Edwad Mauska, Cincinnati Zoological and Botanical Gadens Richad Jakobhoff, Auckland Zoo, Auckland, New Zealand Pete Stoud, Weibee Zoological Pak, Weibee, Austalia F.M. Lockye o C. Fuley, Howletts/Pot Lympne Zoo Paks Pisit na Patalung, Wildlife Fund Thailand Ronald 1ilson, Minnesota Zoo andiucn/ssc CBSG Kathy TayloHolze, Minnesota Zoo nvited paticipants: Mohammed Khan, UCN/SSC Asian Rhino SG Chai Simon Stuat, UCN/SSC Executive Office William Conway, NVZS/The Wildlife Consevation Cente Paul Galand, ASMP Atiodactyl Taxon Advisoy Goup Chai Gaeme Phipps, Taonga Zoo, Sydney, Austalia Dayl Mille, Peth Zoo, Peth, Austalia Michael Boklehust, Melboune Zoo, Melboune, Austalia David Langdon, Monato Zoo, Monato, Austalia Kuno Bleijenbeg, EEP Asian Elephant Coodinato Reinhat Fese, EEP Rhino Taxon Advisoy Goup Chai Jeemy Mallinson, Jesey Wildlife Pesevation Tust Robet Reece, AAZPA Rhino Taxon Advisoy Goup Chai James Dolan, AAZPA Sumatan Rhino SSP CoCoodinato Dale Tuttle, AAZPA Asian Elephant SSP Coodinato John Lukas, White Oak Plantation Nick Lindsay, JMSC Rhino Taxon Advisoy Goup Chai John Stonge, JMSC Asian Elephant Coodinato Yukio Kawaguchi, SSCJ Asian Elephant Coodinato Patick Andan Mahedi, AESG and ARSG, Malaysia Khyne U Ma, Yezin, Pyinnana, Myanma Anan Nalampoon, AESG, Thailand Bouaphanh Phanthaong, AESG, Lao PDR Michael Hutchins, AAZPA Executive Office Doug Myes, San Diego Zoo Mak Goldstein, Los Angeles Zoo Ted Beatty, Fot Woth Zoo Tey Maple, Zoo Atlanta Jo Gipps, London Zoo

10 ', ' SUMATRAN RHNO POPULATON AND HABTAT VABLTY ANALYSS WORKSHOP BREFNG BOOK ~! P" 1 :, ~ l f ; ~ i SECTON 2: LETER FROM THE PRESDENT OF NDONESA

11 ... '.: ~ ' PRESDEN REPUBLK NDONESA Jakata, 25 Januai 1990 Si Paduka;.,., Suat Si Paduka tanggal 24 Oktobe 1989 sungguh menggenbiakan hati saya; kaena ~elah dapat nenpebahaui pengenalan dan petukaan pikian dengan Si Paduka. Saya seenuhnya menyokong pokokpokok pesetujuan beseta ekoneidasinya tentang penyelamatan Badak Jawa dan Sunatea. Saya juga telah meninta kepada Mentei Kehutanan untuk nengambillangkahlangkah yang dipelukan dan kepada Mentei Negaa Kependudukan dan Lingkungan Hidup untuk nengkoodinasikan usahausaha kani dalam nenyelanatkan dan meningkatkan populasi badak. Dengan bantuan Si Paduka, saya behaap usaha kani tidak hanya tebatas pada upa.ya penyelanatan badak dai kepunahan, tetapi juga dapat nenunjukkan kepada dunia suatu contoh kejasana intenasional di bidang lingkungan hidup. Akhimya, pekenankan saya untuk nenyanpaikan ucapan Selanat Tahun Bau., PRESDE;;;;LK NDONESA, Si Paduka SOEHARTO PANGERA N EDNBURGH Pesiden "The Wold Wildlife Fund Fo Natues" CH1196 Gland

12 PRESD:::N REPUBLK NDCH:~/\ UNOFFCAL TRANSLATON You Royal Highness; Jakata, Januay?5~ _1990 n acknowledging you lette of Octobe 24th, 1989, it gives me geat pleasue to enew ou acquaintance and to exchange ideas with you. ~lly suppot the "Points of Ageement" with its ecommendations to save the Java and Sumata Rhinos. have equested the Ministe of Foesty to take the necessay steps and the Ministe of State fo Population and Envionment to coodinate ou effots in saving and enhancing ou Rhino population. With you coopeation, hope that ou endeavo will not only seve to save the Rhinos fom extinction, but also povide the wold with an example of intenational coopeation in the field of the envionment. Allow me to convey to you a Happy New Yea. His Royal Highness THE DUKE OF EDNBURGH PRESDENT OF TE REPUBLC OF NDONESA Sgd. REC: 2 3 FEV SOEHARTO DG 0 Pesident of he Wold Wildlife Fund fo Nau~sppo CH 1196 Gland F :N SWTZERLAND 00 U1C,. ACT; ~ MWt!!~N.S.

13 ~ j SUMATRAN RHNO POPULATON AND HABTAT VABLTY ANALYSS WORKSHOP i BREFNG BOOK, f l ' SECTON 3: NDONESAN RHNO CONSERVATON STRATEGY

14 '. '! SUMATRAN RHNO POPULATON AND HABT AT VABLTY ANALYSS WORKSHOP, BREFNG BOOK, ' ', SECTON 4: NDONESAN RHNOCEROS CONSERVATON ACTON PLAN RTES (1993)

15 ' 1 ' SUMATRAN RHNO POPULATON AND HABT AT VABLTY ANALYSS WORKSHOP BREFNG BOOK ~ '. ' l ; ~ ' i SECTON 5: UCN/SSC ASAN RHNO SPECALST GROUP '

16 . _ Asian Rhinos An Action Plan fo thei Consevation.... Compiled by Mohd. Khan bin Mon1in Khan Chaiman UCN/SSC Asian Rhino Specialist Goup ii ~.,. ~ J ~. ~ WWF,, c'j ~_

17 Contents Page Foewod. ili Acknowledgements.iv Section 1. ntoduction. 1 Section 2. The Asian Rhinos: Thee Species on the Bink of Extinction The Geat Onehoned Rhinoceos The Javan Rhinoceos The Sumatan Rhinoceos. 4 Section 3. The Geat Onehoned Rhinoceos: An Action Plan ntoduction.? 32 Objectives Geneal Recommendations Nepal: Specific Recommendations ndia: Specific Recommendations Conclusion 10 Section 4. The Lesse Onehoned o Javan Rhinoceos: An Action Plan ntoduction Objectives Geneal Recommendations ndonesia (Java): Specific Recommendations. ll 4.5 Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia: Specific Recommendations Conclusion 12 Section 5. The Asian Twohoned o Sumatan Rhinoceos: An Action Plan 12 Page 5.1 ntoduction Objectives Geneal Recommendations ndonesia: Specific Recommendations Malaysia: Specific Recommendations Thailand l5 5.7 Buma Conclusion l5 Section 6.Action Plan Summay l6 Appendix 1: Pinciples of Consen ation Biology fo the Asian Rhinos. 17 Peface? ntoduction. 17 Poblems of Small Populations.? Minimum Viable Population.!? Population Viability Guidelines fo Asian Rhino in the Wild. l9 Potectability of Rhinos and Thei Habitat. 20 Viable Populations of Asian Rhinos 20 Options fo Doomed Animals. 21 Population Guidelines fo Asian Rhino in Captivity 21 Mechanics fo Designation of Animals as Doomed. 21 Appendix 2: The Singapoe Poposals on the Sumatan Rllinoceos Consevation Pog.1mme 22 Appendix 3: Captive 1\lanagement Guidelines fo the Sumatan Rhinoceos Consevation Pogamme. 22 Refeences. 23,

18 1. ntoduction ' i The foundation fo this action plan was laid by Pofesso Ruedi Schenke~ and his v.ife Lotte, at the Bangkok meeting of the UCN/SSC Asian Rhino Specialist Goup (ARSG) in As the ftst ARSG Chaiman, be was was instumental in ceating the inteest fo the intensive suveys, studies. and consevation activities that have since been caied out. Today all thee species of Asian hinoceos ae among the aest species of animal in the wold. And yet, duing the last centuy the geate onehoned hinoceos was killed fo spot. The 1\lahaajah of Cooch Biha alone killed 207 hinos between 1871 and This gives an idea of the fome abundance of the species. Pehaps moe significantly than ovehunting, agicultual development to meet the needs of the apidly expanding human population esulted in extensive losses of hino habitat. These two pessues on the species bought it to the bink of extinction. By 1908 thee wee only a handful of animals emaining, mainly in Kazianga in Assam, ndia, and Chitawan in Nepal. n ode to save the species, Kazianga was made a foest eseve in 1908 and a wildlife sanctuay eight yeas late, and was essentially closed to the public until1938. As a esult of these and othe consevation activities, the geat onehoned hinoceos is now consideed to be the least theatened of the Asian hinos. Numbes have inceased and the species has been tanslocated successfully to establish new populations within its fome ange (though additional tanslocations would be most desiable). The total population is estimated to be moe than 1,700 animals, and the ndian and Nepalese authoities deseve much cedit fo binging the situation unde contol, though continuing stict consevation measues will be needed fo some time. The Javan hinoceos fomely occued though most of southeast Asia, but has disappeaed fom almost all of its fome ange in Assam, Buma, Thailand, Malaysia and Sumata, and is cuently esticted to Java. with scatteed populations still suviving in Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. The cause of decline is mainly attibutable to the excessive demand fo hino hon and othe poducts fo Chinese and allied medicine systems. The animals on Java ae esticted to the Ujung Kulon National Pak, whee. as a esult of stict potection, the population inceased fom about 25 animals in 1967 to 5054 animals in Howeve, moe ecent infomation is lacking, and the status of the species in the ndochinese counties is not yet adequately known. The Sumatan hinoceos occus moe widely than the othe two species in highly scatteed and fagmented populations. Little is known about the cuent status of the population esticted to nothen Buma. Most animals pobably occu in Peninsula Malaysia and Sumata. On Sumata thee ae pehaps animals, with viable populations possibly suviving in Gunung Leuse, Kcinci Seblat, Noth Aceh (GunungAbongabongand LestenLukup) andbaisan Selatan. Sizeable populations also occu on Peninsula Malaysia in Taman Negaa National Pak and Endau Rom pin. Small, but impotant populations also suvive in Sabah, Saawak and possibly Kalimantan. The ARSG held a meeting in Faze's Hills, Malaysia, in 1982, whee, fo the fist time, a citical analysis of Asian hino distibution, numbes and consevation equiements was caied out. This led to the Octobe 1984 meeting in Singapoe, at which a stategy fo the captive beeding of the Sumatan hinoceos in Malaysia, ndonesia, and Euopean and Noth Ameican zoos was endosed. Stong potests fom the public in Malaysia in fact pevented any animals fom being sent oveseas fom that county. This highlighted the need to develop a compehensive consevation action plan fo all thee species of Asian hino, in which captive beeding could be set within the the oveall consevation objectives fo each species. The ARSG theefoe met again in Jakata in 1986 and Kuala Lumpu in 1987, and this action plan is the esult. n addition to the decisions taken at these meetings, the plan has also benefitted fom much useful advice eceived fom ARSG membes and othes. Thee is now much to be done in the implementation of the vaious ecommendations. This action plan should be studied caefully, and should be evised and impoved as necessay in the yeas to come. 2. The Asian Rhinos: Thee Species on the Bink of Extinction This action plan is intended to ecommend both geneal stategies and specific measues to potect and peseve the thee species of Asian hino: the geat onehoned o ndian hino, Rhinoceos unicomis; the lesse onehoned o Javan hino, Rhinoceos sondaicus; and the Asian twohoned o Sumatan hino, Diceolzinus sumatensis. The thee species of hino in Asia ae among the most emakable animals on eath, and ae of geat cultual impotance in Asia. Tagically, all thee species ac now in a vey pecaious situation. They once anged v.idely acoss southen and southeasten Asia, but all ae now educed to small pockets. Although this decline is in pat elated to habitat shinkage and fagmentation, it seems likely that all these species have been declining fo many centuies, pincipally due to the excessive demand fo hino hon fo use in oiental medicine. This epesents one of the least sustainable uses of a natual esouce eve. and poaching of all thee species continues today. This action plan should theefoe be seen in the context of continuing attempts to close down the tade in hino poducts. Two of the species, the geat onehoned and the Javan, ac quite closely elated to each othe. Howeve, the Sumatan hinoceos (sometime called the haiy hino) is paticulaly distinct. The geat onehoned is a species of the open and mashy habitats of the Teai and the Bahmaputa Basins. The othe two species ae denizens of the ainfoest, and consequently. accuate infomation on thei status is difficult to obtain. 1

19 Potection of both animals and thei habit:tt i~ ncct.:s,;av fo consen ation pogammes fo Asian hinll. llc>w.:vc,,;uch potection is unlikely to be sufficient. The wmhncd l"'t:; sues o h;.tbitat destuction and poache acti\it\ ac both educing and fagmenting hino population.' i~ the \\ild. \Vh~.:n populations become small and faemcnlj. the\ become vulneable to extinction fo geneticand dcmog~q hic easons, in addition to the diect theats of hahitat distubance and poaching. l\locove, the smalk the population. the geate these genetic and dcmog~tphic thn:~tl; become. As a consequence, it becomes essential to m~tintain some Minimum Viable Population (l'vivp) size o sizes ll pestn e the species against the genetic and demogaphic pobkms. 1\VPs also imply minimum aeas necessay to accommodate populations of the specified sizes. Dt:temination of \\ h;.tt tvp :md aea ac equit:d is a ct:ntal pol km fo the t:mcging science of conscv;jtion biology. This action plan fo Asian hino has been fomulated with efeence to the pinciples of consevation biology (sec App~o:ndix 1). Thus. many of the goals. object ivcs and ecommendations ac oiented to the maintenance o attainment of genetically and demogaphically viabk: populations of hino. 2.1 The Geat Onehoned Rhinoceos The geat onchoned hinoceos once existcd acoss the entie nothen pat of the ndian subwntincnt fom Pakistan to the ndian Bumese bode, and including pats of Nepal and Bhutan. t may have also existed in Buma, southan China and ndochina. The species now exists in a few small population units geneally situated on the nothen bode of easten ndia and in Nepal. The past and pesent distibutions ac displayed in Figues a and 1 b. The geat onehoned hinoceos is the lea:;t theatened of the Asian species. Populations have inceased and hino have been successfully tanslocated to eestablish populations in aeas whee the species had been ex1eminated. The total estimated numbe is about 1,700 animals (sec Table ). Thee ae about 75 in captivity. The species has been intensely potected by the ndian and Nepalese wildlife authoities and the situation until ecently seemed unde contol. Howeve, the expanding population pessue adjacent to thcsc hino aeas, coupled with the geat value of its hon, has ecently esulted in J\st' ULANKA Figue la Appoxinalt: fnm1e di~tihui(ln of he J.:n at onehon~d hinoceos (shaded aea). NDA '. Gea onehoned hinoceo> (Photo: Pde Jackson) Figue lh Cuent distibution n the J!e;ot onehoned hinoceos. 1: Kazianga; 2: Laokho a; 3: Oang; 4: Pobitoa; 5: l\lanas; 6: Chiawan; 7: Dudhwa; 8: Dadia. :\oe: tiny pot kets also e is.twwh.e in Assam and in West Bengal, but ae no mapped. significant losses to poaches. Recent epots indicate that 238 hinos wee lost in ndia between 1982 and though this ate of attition has now been slowed down consideably. n both these counties the pogammes of potection and tanslocation should be continued. This is paticulaly so in 2

20 Table 1. Population estimates of the geat onehomed hinoceos County Location No of Habitat Availability Potection Potential Rhino Pesently Potentially Status Caying (Knz) (Kn1) Capacit)' \Vildlife Sanctuay >100 Bhutanflndia Manas National Pak >100 ndia Dudhwa ndia Kazianga 1, ?500 National Pak 1,080 theatened by ail. ay Laokhowa Wildlife Sanctuay? ndia Oang Wildlife Sanctuay >100 ndia 16 Wildlife Sanctuay 40 ndia Pobitoa ~ Pocke s in Assam 25? nsecue? ndia ~ ndia Pockets in West Bengal 32? nsecue? Royal Badia Wildlife Reseve?400!';epa?1,200 National Pak?400 Nepal Royal Chitawan Pakistan Lal Sohana 2?? National Pak? TOT.'.L 1, ~,A Table 2 Population estimates of the Javan hinoceos County Location No of Habitat Availability Potection Potential Rhino Pesently (Km 2 ) Potentially (Kn2) Status Caj'inJ:: Capacity ndonesia Ujung Kulon Cambodia Vaious?? Laos Vaious?? Vietnam Nam CatTien Small 350 numbes Vietnam Bugiamap Small 160 numbes Vietnam Vaious?? TOTAL Sll:4 + ndia whee thee emain many aeas which histoically had hino populations. These aeas should be potected and new populations established in them though tanslocations fom aeas whee populations now exist in sufficient numbes to be unaffected by animals being taken out of them. 761 National Pak?<100? Not known?? Not known?? National Pak?? Reseve?? Not knovm?? 2.2 The Javan Rhinoceos The pinciple suviving population of the Javan hinoceos is located on the Ujung Kulon peninsula, which foms the westenmost extemity of the island of Java. An estimated 50 animals now live in the aea. The species was once widespead thoughout the Oiental Realm fom Bengal eastwad to include Buma, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and southwads to the Malay Peninsula and the islands of Sumata and Java. About 150 yeas ago the species occued as thee discete populations. The ftst, belonging to the subspecies inennis (now almost cetainly extinct) was found fom Bengal to Assam and eastwads to Buma. The second subspecies annamiticus occued in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and the eastenmost pat of Thailand. The thid subspecies, the nominate fom, was found fom Tenasseim, though the Ka thmus into the Peninsula and Sumata and in the westen Ja an ninoc os (Photo: Alain Compost) half of Java. All these populations have disappeaed, except fo in Ujung Kulon and some scatleed emnants suviving in ndochina. The Javan hino has the distinction of being the aest lage mammal in the wold. Population estimates ac given in Table 2, and the past and pesent distibutions ac displayed in Figues 2a and 2b. The 50 o so J avan hinos in Ujung Kulon ac in a national pak and the population size is pobably limited to the 3

21 Figue 2a Appoximate fom1e distibution of the Ja an hinoceos (shaded aea). effective caying capacity of the aea. One dange to these animals comes fom disease, which could potentially wipe out the entie population. n , this theat became a eality when an unknown disease actually killed at least five animals in Ujung Kulon. n addition, any such small population of hinos faces a pemanent theat fom poaches. Thee ac no Javan hinos in captivity. Figue 2b Cuent distibuition of the Javan hinoceos.}: Ujung Kulon; 2: Nam Cal Tien; 3: Bugiamap. Note: the TKods mapped in Laos and Kampuchea efe to scatteed sightings, and it is not clea whethe any of these constitute substantial populations. t is suggested that the situation facing this species be looked at vey closely to sec if ecommendations to tanslocate some animals into othe aeas, such as \Vay Kambas o southen pat of Bukit Baisan Sclatan National Pak in Sumata should not be seiously consideed. A single small population is always extemely vulneable. t must be kept in mind that the Ujung Kulon peninsula is on the Sundaic edge volcanic line and that duing the Kakatau euption in 1883, the entie peninsula was affected by tidal waves and ash ains which destoyed much of its teestial \ifc. A second appoach is that the ndonesian authoities should also conside binging some animals into a captive beeding poject to be based at least patly in ndonesia. Belte exploation of the situation in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia also needs to take place. with the option of captive beeding again being consideed. Such infomation might become available as fieldwok on the koupey Bos sam cli consevation pogamme get undeway. 2.3 The Sumatan Rhinoceos The Sumatan hinoceos was once found fom the foothills of the Himalayas in Bhutan and easten ndia. though Buma, Thailand, and the Malay Peninsula, and on the islands of Sumata and Boneo. Thee have also been unconfimed epots of the species in Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. The past and pesent distibutions ae displayed in Figues 3a and 3b and population estimates ac given in Table 3.1n geneal this species has suvived much bette in its native habitats than the Javan hino. This may be patly because it mainly inhabits the mountains and foests of highe elevations which wee not so subject to development and logging. n contast the Javan hino is a species of the coastal plains and ive valleys. At pesent the species suvives in pockets in Buma, Thailand, the Malay Peninsula, Sumata and Boneo. Little is known of its status in Buma which holds the subspecies lasiotus. The nominate subspecies sumatensis is now epesented by animals in Thailand, Peninsula Malaysia and in Sumata. Thee has been little ecent news of animals in Thailand and its continuing occuence thee is now in doubt. n the Peninsula thee ae an estimated 100 animals suviving in seveal isolated pockets of which pehaps only two ae in potected aeas of sufficient size to guaantee long tem \iability. All these animals have to be closely potected. The lagest numbe of the subspecies swnatensis now suvives on the island of Sumata and it is possible that seveal hunded animals still exist. Howeve, the island is now in a phase of intense development esulting fom ndonesia's tansmigation pogamme and the habitat available to the species is being apidly educed. n addition the shee size of the island, compaed to the available staff fo potecting the species, makes adequate potection almost impossible. Even in aeas whee thee is a stong pesence of potection staff, poaching is active. This is evidenced by the fact that in a poject to captue animals fo a captive beeding pogamme in an aea whee numeous wildlife staff ac positioned, animals ae being caught with fesh snae wounds on thei legs. The hinos in Sumata ae too widespead and in too many pockets fo all of them to be potected adequately in the anges whee they still suvive. As a esult, they ae subject to. 4

22

23 Figue Ja Appoximate fome distibution o the Sumatan hinoceos (shaded aea). _,,..; Figue 3b Cuent distibution o the Sumatan hinoceos. 1: Lassai tact; 2: Tamanthi; 3: Schweudaung; 4: Phu Khieo; 5: Khao Soi Dao; 6: Tenasseim Range; 7: Kedah; 8: Ulu Selama; 9: Bubu Foest; 10: Kuala Balah; 11: Sungai Depak; 12: Sungai Yong; 13: Taman Negaa; 14: Sungai Lepa; 15: Ulu Atok; 16: Ulu &lum; 17: Sungai Dusun; 18: Kau Resene; 19: Dukit Gebok; 20: Endau Rompin; 21: Mesing Coast; 22: Gunung Belumut; 23: Lest en Lukup; 24: GunungAbongabong; 25: Gunung Leuse. 26: Togamba; 27: Bebak; 28: Keinci Seblat; 29: Gunung Patah; 30: Daisan Selatan; 31: Limbang; 32: Ketam; 33: Tabin; 34: Danum Valley; 35: Sabah bode. 6.1 Sun1atan hinoceos (Photo: Depatment o Wildlife and l"ational Paks, \lala) sia) heavy poaching pessue both fom huntes with fieams and fom tappes who usc wie snaes and othe taps th;j maim and kill animals. The total wold population is now thought to be between 500 and 900 animals (see Table 3) and the annual loss may be as much as 10 pecent of that population. Thee is evidence that beeding in the wild is taking place but the ate of such ecuitment to the population is not known. Pesently, thee ae 16 animals in captivity. The subspccieshanissoni is possibly the most endangeed of the subspecies and now exist in a few apidly d\l.indling pockets in easten Sabah. Thee may be less than thity animals still suviving in the state and the ate of poaching is believed to be high. The Sa bah state is at pesent engaged in a pogamme to captue these high isk animals and put them into the safety of a captive beeding pogamme. Recently it was discoveed that a small goup of this subspecies suvives in the uppe Lim bang catchment in Saawak. Effots ae now being made to monito this goup and potect them fom poaches. t is also possible that populations emain in easten Kalimantan. An extensive intenational coopeative pogamme fo the consevation of this species is aleady being im plementcd. Thee ac ongoing effots lo establish captive beeding centes fo the species in ndonesia and in Malaysia (both the Peninsula and in Sabah) whee the active tapping of animals is now being caied out. Captive beeding is also being planned in the United States and the United Kingdom, using animals of ndonesian oigin. The Peninsula?vlalaysian pogamme also calls fo the setting up of 'gene pools" whee the species will be allowed to beed in semiwild conditions in lage fenced aeas. All of these effots ae components of a global captive popagation pogamme being developed fo this species unde the geneal guidelines of the Singapoe Poposals (see Appendix 2) adopted by the Asian Rhino Specialist Goup (ARSG) and UCN in 1984 and i. accodance with the specific povisions of the national plans and bilateal ageements that have been fomulated. A majo guideline of note is that no mixing of animals fom the fou majo egions of thei ange (Buma, Peninsula, Sumata, and Boneo) be undetaken until thee has been adequate genetic investigation of any significant diffeences between these geogaphically disjunct populations.,

24 2.4 Conclusion Finally, it should be emphasised that membes of the UCN/ SSCAsian Rhino Specialist Goup should wok togethe fo the maximum benefit of all these species, and should cay out thei tasks and ageements in a manne that will encouage and engende futue and longtem coopeation. The impotance of especting absolutely the authoity in each county that is esponsible fo the consevation of wildlife in geneal, and the hino species in paticula, cannot be oveemphasised. Gea onehoned hinoceos (!'hoto:!'ee Jackson) 5. The Asian Twohoned o Stnnatan Rhinoceos: An Action Plan 5.1 ntoduction The Sumatan hinoceos is a spccic~ ol ;tinloc~l in hilly ami mountainous aeas.lt is much moc widdy settle ed, often in tiny inviable populations, than thc othe two species. As a n.:sult, it is moc difficult to make decision~ as to the no:.1 appopi;tlc pioities fo its con!.t.:\'atiun. l'!.lll.:i;tlly sinc ;1 nunhc of national and state guvcnmcnl!. ac involvcd. Although not yet as citically thcatcned as thc.bvan hinoeos, this species is pobably cxpcicncing 1 he most scious levcl of poaching fo its hon of all the Asian hinos. n some acas it is also theatened by habitat destuction. n view of these complexities, it has been felt hcstto h;mdlc the specific ccommendations fo each county in a slightlv diffccnt way fom thc pevious two specics. Development of captive popubtion!. in ;;oth Ameica and England, as well as in the countics of ongin. is consideed impotant fo seveal easons:. Thee ac significant isks ( c.g. diseasc qmlcmics, natual disastcs, etc) of having all the hinos in only a few places. Sumatntn hinoc'" o'> (l'hoto: l>epatm~nl of Wildlif~ and :\;tliunal l'a~' :'ol.ola~'ia) To ensue maximum secuity. the popul:ttion!.hould he distibutcd ;JS widely :ts pnssihl:.:. Fo longtem viability, the captive popubtion nccds to he lac th;m exisling Southcast i\si:u1 Ltcilitics ctn c:tsonably accommmbtc. Thee :.te appeci;thle csouccs and cxpcnisc in Nmth Ameican and Bit ish zoos 1 h;tt c;m he utilized n expedite the expansion of 1 he ct pt ive popubt ion Howeve, it should also he notcd th:tt lo " v;uit.:tv of easons the motalily among animals that h:tve hccn tans poted beyond thc bode~ of thci countio.:s is cxlcmclv high. Of the five animals nwvcd S<l b thn:c h:t\c died. a c;l pccent motality. This docs not comp:tc wcll with the oveall motality of the captue pogamme in which fivc animals have died out of 17 Gt pt ucs ( 2'>.1 pccc nl ). n Ltcl the motality falls to l.'i.1 pt.:ccnt (two moldlltcs out of H <tnimals) if the nwt:ditics of expoted animals ac cxduded fom the calculations. Theefoe, it is essen! i:tl 1 hat ct.:tain condition!. he sal islied v. hen anim:tls <tc to he tan~poted 1<1 foeign dcstin:t lions. Thesc ac: 1. Thee must be accuate and a~ complcte infomation on the animal/anim:tls ils possihk. This should include complete vetcin:tv ecods. 2. The animals should not only be in excellent health but should be fee fom any significant physical defomities o injuies. As fa as possible lhe animals should be in pefect condition. 3. The animals should be physically pepacd fo thei new homes and should be peconditioned. at least p:~tiallv. to the new diet egime befoe they ac mo\ cd. 12

25 5.2 Objectives 1. To develop populations of at least 7001,000 hinos in each of the majo egions of its ange: Sumata, Boneo, Peninsula Malaysia and adjacent mainland, and nothen Buma. 2. To peseve, manage and whee appopiate expand all populations that have the potential to incease to 100 animals o moe. 3. To detemine if the populations in each majo pat of its ange (listed unde objective 1 above) constitute valid subspecies o evolutionay significant units (ESUs ), j ustifying pesevation as sepaate entities by consevation pogammes. 4. To locate o establish additional viable populations, especially on the mainland and Boneo 5. To develop a captive population of 150 hinos distibuted in zoos woldwide: Southeast Asia, Noth Ameica, and Euope. Establish this captive population with at least 20 pais of foundes fom the wild. 6. To expeiment with the gene pool concept. 7. To continue effots to close down the tade in hino poducts. 5.3 Geneal Recommendations 1. Concentate initial in situ consevation effots on the seven, o so, populations consideed to be easonably viable accoding to cuent infomation and analysis (see Table 3). 2. Calculate the esouces cuently available and additionally equied to povide adequate potection fo these populations. 3. Ensue impoved legal potection status of all aeas v.ith viable, o potentially viable, populations (paticula attention to be given to KeinciSeblat in Sumata and Endau Rom pin in Peninsula Malaysia). 4. Conduct biochemical genetic studies, initially using blood and tissue fom captive animals, to investigate if thee is moe than one ESU in this species. 5. Oganise suveys as soon as possible in Kalimantan (highest pioity), Thailand, and nothen Buma to ascetain whethe appeciable populations of hino suvive thee. 6. Continue the captue of "doomed" animals to povide foundes fo the captive population and the gene pool expeiments, as well as stock fo possible tanslocation afte sufficient animals have been obtained fo the a situ pogammes. 7. Develop an expeimcntal"genc pool" in ode to lean as much as possible ab_9ut the management of the animals (initially at Sungai Dusun in Peninsula Malaysia). 8. Manage the captive animals as pat of the oveall consevation pogamme fo the species, and discouage all movements of captive hinos (including as gifts), unless tlus is endosed by UCN. Details on how the animals should be managed in captivity ae available fom the ARSG. Guidelines fo captive management ae given in Appendix mpove the effectiveness of law enfocement thoughout the species' ange with espect to antipoaching measues and tading in Sumatan hinoceos poducts. The stictest possible penalties should be applied to offendes. 5.4 ndonesia: Specific Recommendations The total population of the Sumatan hinoceos in ndonesia is estimated to be between , all in Sumata, with the possibility of a few existing in Kalimantan (sec Table 3). n ndonesia this species has been legally potected since A numbe of eseves have been set aside fo the consevation of wildlife, including this species, notably the Gunung Leuse, KeinciSeblat, and Baisan Selatan National Paks in Sumata. These ae all managed by the PHPA (Pelindugan Hutan dan Pelestian Alam), a Diectoate Geneal which comes unde the Ministy of Foesty. A pogamme of binging animals into captivity is cuently undeway fo doomed hinos in Sumata. This is being oganised by the Ameican Association of Zoological Paks and Aquaia (AAZPA), and the Howletts and Pot Lympne Zoo in Bitain. This pogamme is still in an ealy Phase, but it is envisaged to include captive beeding in ndonesia, Bitain and the United States. The goal is to ensue the suvival of viable populations of the Sumatan hino in ndonesia in its natual habitat. 1. Potection Bette potection is needed of the known viable hino populations in KeinciScblat, Gunung Leuse and Baisan Selatan National Paks in Sumata. Such impoved potection should include the following aspects: 13 an incease in antipoaching effots; appopiate foms of sustainable development in the buffezones aound these paks, to enable people to deive economic benefits fom the potected aeas; a public education pogamme on the impotance of these national paks and thei hinos; a taining pogamme fo all levels of staff woking in wildlife and potected aea management. This should include taining in captive management of hino; fomal gazettment of the national pak at KeinciSeblat.

26 . j 2. 1\lonitoing Monitoing should be done on as many hino populations as possible on a egula basis to assess the tends, distibution, movement and habitat pefeences of the species. Censusing should pefeably be caied out annually by eams of people following standadised methods. Suveys also need to be caied out to detemine the distibution and abundance of the species outside the potected aeas. n paticula, suveys should be caied out to assess the status of hino. if any, in Gunung Patah, GunungAbongabong, LestenLukup, and in Kalimantan (along the bode with Sabah, and nolhcn Saawak opposite the uppe Limbang catchment). 3. Captue and tanslocation t is impotant to identify aeas that ae destined to be conveted to othe land uses incompatible with wildlife consevation, and hence detemine whethe it is necessay to tanslocate hinos to anothe. safe aea o into the captive population. The taget aea must have adequate habitat to sustain a viable population of hino. Fo the management of captive animals in ndonesia. the pinciples outlined fo Malaysia, and in Appendix 3, apply. 4. Reseach Reseach on hino populations in the national paks and othe potected aeas should be caied out with a view to detemining thei numbe, beeding pefomance and habitat equiements. t is also necessay in ode to detemine the theats to the animals in each aea and to devise appopiate consevation action. 5. Tade t is clea that an illegal tade exists in Sumatan hino hon, fom Sumata to Singapoe and possibly othe counties. t is ecommended that the govenments concened make a conceted effot to bing the situation unde contol. This tade is pobably the most seious theat to the species at the pesent time. 5.5 Malaysia: Specific Recommendations The management of wildlife in Malaysia is govened by thee diffeent legislative measues. n the Peninsula, the Wildlife Potection Act of 1972 povides wildlife potection fo the 11 states. n Sabah and Saawak, the Fauna Consevation Odinance and the Wildlife Potection Odinance make necessay povisions fo wildlife administation espectively. T~e Sumatan hino is potected by law thoughout Malaysta. Of 20 knoyin populations in Malaysia, 16 ae consideed inviable and only fou (Taman Negaa, Endau Rompin, Tabin and Danum Valley) ae consideed easonably viable fo longtem genetic management. Habitat destuction though 1~ging, agicultual development, human settlemen~, and s~fting cultivation ae the main causes of the populatton decline. Poaching has been bought unde contol in the Peninsula but emains a seious poblem in Sabah. The goal is to maintain viable populations of the Sumatan hinoceos in the wild in Malaysia. The objectives of the action plan fo Malaysia ae: to potect and manage the hino and its habitat; to gathe infomation on the viability of the populations and exact habitat equiements fo hinos; to pomote scientific eseach and dissemination of infomation on captive individiuals; to build up the captive population so as to make animals available fo eintoduction.. Sabah a. Wildlife consevation and management in the state of Sabah is the esponsibility of the Wildlife Division of the Foesty Depatment. The cuent stength of the Division is inadequate fo effective potection and eseach to be conducted fo the hino in paticula and wildlife in geneal. As a longtem measue. the Wildlife Division should be stengthened in tems of staffing, funding and logistical suppot. b. The Fauna Consevation Odinance 1963 is the wildlife legislation fo the state of Sabah. Cuent penalties fo poaching of hinos and elevant povisions ae consideed inadequate to dete poaching o to ensue that offendes ae bought to book. t is theefoe ecommended that the odinance be eviewed to povide fo heavie penalties fo poaching of hinos, and the powes of wildlife offices be eviewed to enable them to cay out thei duties effectively. c. Cuently, only thee beeding populations of the Sumatan hino ae kno\ld in Sabah, in the Tabin Wildlife Reseve, the Danum Valley Consevation Aea, and the Ketam aea (although thee ae othe scatteed ecods fom southeasten Sabah). The status of these thee aeas needs to be e\iewed to detemine how much land and habitat needs to be potected. n addition, sufficient manpowe and facilities should be assigned to these two aeas. Public education pogammes should be instigated aound these aeas. and appopiate foms of buffezone development should be consideed. d. At least two of the known populations ae consideed to be easonably viable fo longtem genetic management (Tabin has appoximately 20, and Danum about 10 individuals). t is ecommended that suveys be conducted to detemine whethe futhe beeding populations exist, and to locate othe isolated individuals. e. t is ecommended that the captue of isolated o theatened hinos be continued fo captive beeding o tanslocation puposes. Beeding between individuals fom diffeent geogaphical egions (e.g. Peninsula Malaysia and Sabah) should be avoided (unless futhe studies show that thee ae no appeciable genetic diffeences between these aeas). 2. Saawak a. A detailed study of the hino population is needed in ode to demonstate that the aea should be declaed a national pak o a hino eseve. b. Constant monitoing of the Ulu Limbang population is 14

27 needed to detemine its tue extent. and its potection equiements. 3. Taman Nega.t and Endau Rom pin (Peninsula 1\tala~sia) a. These ae the two viable populations in Peninsula Malaysia. Constant suveillance should be caied out on these populations. As a matte of the highest pioity, the state govenments of Pahang and J ahae should be encouaged designate Endau Rompin as a National Pak. b. Extensive habitat evaluation should be caied out to detemine the caying capacity of the aeas. This infomation is impotant to detemine whethe these ae suitable sites fo the futue elease of animals tanslocated fom doomed populations. 4. Sungai Dusun Wildlife ReseYe (Peninsula Malaysia) a. The "gene pool" concept, in which hinos would be managed in a semiwild state, should be implemented at this site. The founde population may consist of five beeding females and at least two sexually matue bulls. 5. Malacca Zoo (Peninsula Malaysia) a. A captive beeding stock of at least two males and fou females should be established. b. TheARSG should pool all essential data fom attempts at captive beeding of the species (including fom attempts outside Malaysia) in ode to ensue that maximum possible use is made of the limited supply of animals. Such data would include aspects of physiology, pathology, paasitology, feeding, gowth and epoduction. The compute database facility at Malacca needs to be upgaded fo this pupose. This database would be of use to othe beeding facilities at Sungai Dusun, Tabin, Ragunan Zoo, Los Angeles Zoo and Howlelts and Pot Lympne Zoo. n this way, Malacca Zoo would act as a efeence cente fo the oveall captive beeding pogamme. 6. Othe aeas in Peninsula Malaysia a. Rhinos in isolated and theatened aeas will be captued fo the "gene pool" and captive beeding pogamme at Malacca zoo. When these facilities have eached the maximum holding capacity, the newly captued animals could be elocated in Taman Negaa and Endau Rom pin. t is also poposed that the Malaysian animals lagely be kept within the county fo the time being fo the following easons: That no mixing of animals fom the fou majo egions of thei ange (Buma, Peninsula. Sumata and B~~eo) b.e undetaken until thee has been adequate genetic mvesttgation of any significant diffeences between these geogaphically disjunct populations. That all the animals now cuently being caught ac pioitised fo the captive beeding and gene pool pogamme, which will equie between 10 and 20 animals. Once sufficient animals ae available fo the beeding pogammes in the Peninsula, and if it can be shown that they ae genetically simila to animals fom othe aeas, then futhe animals, if caught. could be consideed fo oveseas captive beeding pogammes. 5.6 Thailand The cuent status of the species in Thailand is obscue, and equies investigation. f any animals suvive, it is most unlikely that they do so in viable populations. As such, any animals would best be captued fo a captive beeding pogamme (pehaps in conjunction \\ith Peninsula Malaysia), pending eintoduction to a suitable site at a late date. Rhino poducts, almost entiely of impoted oigin, ac still available in Thailand. Although hinos ac stictly potected in Thailand, thee is cuently insufficient legal capacity to contol the impotation of hino poducts. The govenment of Thailand is stongly uged to take action on this. 5.7 Buma That the isolated subspecies lasiotus suvives in nothen Buma is confimed by the continuing appeaance of hino poducts of Bumese oigin in nothen Thailand. As the situation pemits, the status oft he species in nothen Buma should be investigated to detemine the necessay in situ and ex situ consevation equiements. 5.8 Conclusion The Sumatan hino is an instance of a species whee thee is still time to act to evese the cuent apid decline in the population. Cuent effots at all levels must theefoe be intensified if a "Javan hino" type cisis is to be avoided.. 15

28 , i. This chapte summaises Chaptes 3, 4, and 5 on the geat onehoned. Javan and Sumatan hinoceoses espectively. The goals fo each of the action plans ae highlighted as the following: 1. Peseve and manage the geat onehoned. Javan and Sumatan hinos as species and as components of thei ecosystems. 2. Theefoe. maintain viable populations in sitll of all EvolutionaySignificant Units(ESUs) of the thee species against the pessue of habitat destuction and poache activity. 6. Action Plan Summay 7. Encouage and assist effots to educe futhe the tade in hino hon. Specifically: Thee needs to be moe enfocement of laws against intenal tade in hino hon and poducts, paticulaly in Singapoe, Thailand, China, Hong Kong, and TaiY."<m. Use of substitutes fo hino hom needs to be pomoted Effots to pevent the illegal intenational commece in hino hon. Expot of hon fom ndia and Sumata needs paticula attention: The intenal tade of hon in Laos needs to be pohibited, J.! : 3. To achieve this goal, develop populations of 2,0003,000 individuals of each species. Ensue that fo each species thei populations ae distibuted acoss at least fi.e sepaate sanctuaies, each of which should be capable of accommodating a minimum of 100 hinos, pefeably moe. t is highly desiable to have two o moe sanctuaies that can accommodate at least hinos each, though this might no longe be feasible fo two of the species. 4. Fo Javan and Sumatan hino in paticula, Goal 3 will entail substantially expanding the existing population and establishing additional sanctuaies. Fo all thee species, a total population lage than the minimum (i.e. 2,000), and additional sanctuaies capable of accommodating easonably viable populations ( > 100), ae highly desiable. 5. "Doomed" hino (i.e. individuals which ae outside populations of easonable viability and which cannot be potected with available o acceptable levels of esouces) should be used fo captive popagation, "gene pools", o be tanslocated to othe natual sanctuaies whee they may be pat of viable and potectable populations. 6. Develop captive populations of at east150 hinos fo each of the thee species to einfoce the populations in the wild mplement public awaeness and education campaigns in the vicinity of in situ hino populations, to daw the attention of local communities to the impotance and aity of the hinos, and theeby to mobilise public opinion in suppot of thei consevation. 9. Continue wildlife management taining pogammes with a paticula emphasis on developing an indigenous capacity to monito and manage wild hino populations, to captue. tanslocate, and eintoduce hinos, and to maintain and beed them in captivity. 10. Continue potected aea management taining pogammes, with an emphasis on suvey techniques, antipoaching measues, and village extension wok. Devise methods wheeby villages can deive economic benefits fom the potected aeas. 11. As the situation pemits, investigate the status of the Javan hino in ndochina, and the Sumatan hino in nothen Buma, with a view to assessing what, if any, consevation activities should be undetaken.

29 Appendix 1: Pinciples of Consenation Biology fo the Asian Rhinos Peface This appendix is an attempt to apply pinciples of consevation biology to Asian hinos. As such it concentates on the genetic and demogaphic poblems of small and fagmented populations. The science of consevation biology is in ealy stages of evolution. Many aspects ae still contovesial o unvalidated. Moeove, genetics and demogaphics ae only two of the factos that must be consideed in developing consevation stategies and pogammes. Thus the conclusions of this appendix should not be consideed as absolute o defmitive. Howeve, it is impotant to be awae that these genetic and demogaphic poblems may vey well exist and to adhee to pinciples as discussed in this appendix as fa as possible. ntoduction Potection of both animals and thei habitat is necessay fo consevation pogammes fo Asian hino. Howeve. such potection may not be sufficient. The combined pessues of habitat destuction and poache activity ae both educing and fagmenting hino populations in the wild. When populations become small and fagmented, they become vulneable to extinction fo genetic and demogaphic easons (Figue 4) in addition to the poblems with habitat and fom poaches. Moeove, the smalle the population, the geate these genetic and demogaphic theats become. As a consequence, it becomes essential to maintain some minimum viable population (MVP) size o sizes to peseve the species against the genetic and demogaphic poblems. Detemination of what MVP is equied is a cental poblem fo the emeging science of consevation biology. This section of the Asian Rhino Action Plan is intended as an initial attempt to apply the pinciples of consevation biology to stategies and pogammes fo pesevation of Asian hino. t is possible though appopiate population viability analyses (PYA) to pescnbe the size of the population that will be equied to achieve some level of genetic and demogaphic secuity. As explained moe fully below, peliminay analyses suggest that minimum populations of 100 may be equied fo each sepaate wild population of hino to be genetically and demogaphically viable ove the next yeas. Howeve, it should be emphasised that a ecommended M VP is not necessaily the actual population now existing in a defmed aea of the natual ange of the species. nstead, the MVP epesents a minimum numbe that the aea cuently occupied by a given population must ultimately be able to sustain, assuming the hinos can be potected and hence penniued to gow in numbe to the caying capacity of the habitat. Thus, the MVP will by extension pescibe a minimum viable aea equied by this numbe of hinos fo each in situ population. Obviously, the size of this aea \\ill depend upon the density of hinos that an aea can accommodate. Poblems o Small Populations Small populations Jose genetic divesity apidly at both the population and the individual level. At the population level, genetic divesity is vital to pemit adaptation to continually changing envionments. At the individual level, genetic vaiation is equied to maintain the "vigo" of animals; loss of divesity in individuals is known as inbeeding and the phenomenon of decline in "vigo" (i.e., suvival and fecundity) is inbeeding depession. Consevation biologists have ecommended that genetically effective populations of 50 ae necessay fo the shotetem ( 510 geneations), mainly to counteact inbeeding depession. Genetically effective populations of 100 to 500 may be necessay O\'e the longe tem (10 o moe geneations) to maintain adaptability. Howeve, the population size of elevance is not meely the census numbe. Rathe it is the genetically effective size (N) which depends on how the animals ae actually epoducing to tansmit genes to the next geneation. Veygeneally. the genetically effective size of a population depends on: the numbe of animals actually epoducing; the sexatio of the epoducing animals; the elative lifetime numbe of offsping (i.e. family size) of animals in the population. Fo example, animals that do not epoduce at all do not contibute and theeby educe the genetically effective size of the population below the census numbe. Altenatively, if a few animals do most of the beeding, again the genetically effective size is educed. n natual populations, N < is almost always only a faction (2575%) of the census numbe (N). Thus, to achieve ann of 50,70200 actual animals might be equied. e A peliminay analysis of the population biology of Asian hinos suggests that the N.JN atio fo this species in the wild might be of the ode "0.5''. Theefoe, an MVP of 100 would be equied to achieve an N< of 50 fo each sepaate population of Asian hino. Demogaphically, small populations ae vey vulneable to natual disastes, disease epidemics, distonions of sex atios (i.e., all animals bon to the small numbe in the population being of one sex) and othe ecological vicissitudes. Consevation biology models suggest that populations smalle than 2550 total individuals ae seiously at isk due to demogaphic poblems of this natue. Minimum Viable Population Recognising the significance of these genetic and demogaphic poblems, the concept of Minimum Viable Populations (MVP) has become cental to modem consevation biology and stategies. MVPs ae citical to populations in the wild o in captivity. n the wild, MVPs ac imponant fo the size, shape, numbe, inteaction and secuity of eseves. n captivity, MVPs elate to the caying capacity that is developed fot he captive population and the numbe of foundes needed to establish it. MVPs depend on both the genetic and demogaphic objectives of a consevation stategy and on biological chaacteistics of the species unde consideation. Genetic and demogaphic objectives of elevance ae: the natue and amount of genetic divesity that is to be peseved and the length of time ove which this vaiation is to be maintained. 1. The kind and level of genetic divesity to be peseved. Obviously, the optimal objective is to etain all o as much of the divesity as possible. Howeve, with the esticted populations possible (in the wild o captivity) and limited esouces fo consevation, something less than all may have to be accepted at least fo some peiod of time, e.g. "the demogaphic winte". This tem has been ceated to denote that peiod of the next 200 to 500 yeas when human population gowth and development will continue and intensify its devastation of wildlands, destuction of wildlife, and geneal disuption of ecological systems and balances on the planet. n any case specifying the kind and level of divesity to be peseved will pescibe MVPs equied. Peseving ae alleles (i.e. specific vaieties of genes) will 17

30 j 100 l:::::::::~===~==~================ N=SOO 75 Pecentage of Genetic Divesity Peseved 50 Ne = 250 N.= 125 N 0 =50 Demogaphic and Envionmental Stochasticity 25 majo dange to suvival fo population sizes below 50 animals J Geneations Figue 4. Decline of genetic divesity fo vaious dtutive population sizes (N 0 ) possible fo a total population (N) of 250. \ i ; ' equie lage MVPs than meely maintaining aveage heteozygosity (some vaiation of any. non~pecific kinds). Peseving 95% of aveage heteozygosity will equie an MVP twice as lage as 90% will. Unfotunately, population geneticists ac not cetain o ageed how much divesity is enough but levels of at least 90% of aveage heteozygosity have been stongly suggested. 2. How long must this level of genetic divesity be peseved? The optimal answe is indefinitely, i.e. the species will have enough vaiation to continue to evolve as envionments change and to maintain adequate levels of vigo. But again, thee may have to be compomises. Hopefully, intensive pogammes will be needed only though the "demogaphic winte", which may in geneal continue fo 200 to 500 yeas. Howeve, the winte may vay on a speciesbyspecies and aeabyaea basis. Seveal eintoduction pojects using captive stock of species extinct in the wild ae in pogess even now. But these oppotunities ae likely to be limited and often tansient ove the next centuy o two. Biological chaacteistics of impotance ac: the geneation time of the species; the NJN atio of the populations; the numbe of foundes that establish a population; the epoductive ate o ecovey potential; and the degee of subdivision of the oveall population. 1. The geneation time of the species. Genetic divesity is lost geneation by geneation, not yea by yea. Thus some given peiod of time, e.g. 200 yeas, epesents moe geneations, hence moe oppotunity to lose divesity, fo a species like a tasie than it does fo a species like a hino. 2. The NJN of the population. Loss of divesity depends on population size. Howeve as discussed above, the population size of elevance is not simply the census numbe. Rathe, loss of divesity depends on the way in which membes of the population beed with one anothe to tansmit thei genes to the next geneation. Such factos as animals not epoducing at all, uneven numbes of the males and females epoducing, o some animals having many moe offsping than othes can geatly educe the genetically effective size fa below the actual census numbe of a population. Nomally N, is less, sometimes much less, than N; and hence MVPs must be lage than the population size pescibed by genetic calculations since these pesciptions ae always in tems of Ne. 3. The numbe of foundes that establish a population. Foundes ae animals out of the wild population that ac used to establish a captive o a new (including ecoveing) wild population; convesely, they could be animals fom captivity that ae used to eestablish a species in the wild. n geneal, the lage the numbe of foundes, the smalle the MVP needed fo some genetic objectives. Howeve thee is a point of diminishing etuns so that usually 2030 effective foundes may be adequate. To be effective, a founde must epoduce. Thus, if captue pogammes ac planned caefully. souce (e.g. wild) populations do not have to be decimated to ceate new (e.g. captive) ones. 4. The epoductive ate o eco,ey potential of the population. Much genetic divesity can be lost eithe as a population gows fom its foundation size to its caying capacity o duing ecovey fom peiodic eductions. n geneal, the highe the epoductive ate and hence gowth o ecovey to caying capacity, the less genetic divesity is lost. 5. The degee of subdivision o fagmentation in the population. f a species population is fagmented into a numbe of subdivisions which ae isolated fom one anothe, animals may not be able to move aound fo beeding and hence exchange of genetic mateial. Such situations can cause loss of genetic divesity. On the othe hand some subdivision may assist etention of some kinds of genetic divesity. The impotant point is that consevationists must analyse the genetic pocesses in the species unde 18

31 , ~=> lj ~ u ~ Figue 5. Managed mi~:ation among populations o hino. consideation and develop an appopiate management plan that may include atificial movement o manipulation of animals thus synthesising many sepaate smalle populations into a socalled metapopulation capable of geate longtem viability. Finally, it must be emphasised that thee is no single minimum viable population that applies to all speciesoto all situations fo any given species. Rathe, MVPs will vay depending on the objeetives of the pogamme and cicumstances of the species. ndeed, some consevation biologists ae ecommending that the tem MVP be eplaced by simply viable population (VP). But all consevationists agee that the kind of population viability analysis (PVA) descnbed in this section is citical to successful consevation stategies and pogammes fo endangeed species. Population Viability Guidelines fo Asian Rhino in the 'Wild Based on consideations of consevation biology, habitat destuction, and poache activity, it actually seems useful to distinguish thee categoies of Asian hino populations in developing action plans: 1. Reasonable Viability A minimum numbe of 100 hinos seems to be indicated by PV A fo a population be genetically and demogaphically viable fo peiods of time in the ode of 150 yeas. To maintain such populations, aeas of 100 km 2 o less will be equied in the poductive iveine habitats fequented by the geat onehomed hinoceos, and of 1000 km 2 o moe in the midmontane zones inhabited by the Sumatan hinoceos. Natually, aea equiements may also \'ay somewhat depending on the actual caying capacity of a paticula habitat. Longe tem viability ( > 10 geneations) will then equie that enough of the sepaate populations of 100 be maintained to achieve a metapopulation with ann< of pehaps500 fo each species. Because of NJN atio effects, such metapopulations fo each species will need to be 2,000 to 3,000 hinos. 2. Limited o Uncetain Viability Populations with fewethan these numbes of hinos, actually o potentially, may have shotetem viability and value fo the pesevation of the species. Atificial migation (i.e., managed movement) of hinos peiodically between smalle populations may effectively ende them a single lage population and would theeby enhance the viability of such emnant hino populations, as discussed futhe below (Figue 5). Howeve, the cost of such opeations will be high and thei success uncetain. Thee may be othe factos that ende a population smalle than the MVP guidelines fo longtem viability wothy of attempted pesevation. Uniqueness may be a consideation, e.g. the Saawak o Thai populations of Sumatan hino. ndeed, the entie matte of subspecies o beue "evolutionaily significant units" (ESUs) must be consideed when developing action plans. Smalle populations may also povide impotant eseach, educational o othe oppotunities. The Sungai Dusun Reseve fo Sumatan hino in Peninsula t.alaysia is a case in point. Howeve, ealistic costbenefit analyses need to be pefomed on each of the hino populations of limited viability to detemine if intensive and inteactive management is feasible in both logistic and economic tems. This costbenefit analysis should above all else demonstate that attempts to peseve these smalle emnants of hinos do not divet o dissipate esouces needed to potect the lage, easonably viable populations. 3. nviable o "Doomed" A "doomed" hino is defmed as an animal that is consideed to have no possibility of contnbuting to the suvival of the species in its cuent situation because: a. t is not pat of a population lage enough to be viable in genetic 19.

32 \' and demogaphic tems, and/o b. The animal cannot be potected fom habitat destuction o poache activity\\ith acceptable o available levels of esouces. Single animals o isolated goups that do not satisfy the MVP citeia and which cannot be potected fom habitat destuction o poache activity \\ith available o acceptable levels of consevation esouces ae "doomed". Potectability of Rhinos and thei Habitat Assessment of isks to viability fom habitat destuction and poache activity have been discussed peviously in van Sticn (1985b). Factos that need to be consideed in evaluating the potectability of hinos and thei habitat include: ecological situation, including the location of the aea in elation to othe places occupied by hino; Table 5. Population viability analyses (PVA) fo capti\ e populations of Sumatan hino. A Example of PV\ softwae output Effective population size (l',l and caying capacity nec~ssay fo maintaining the specified amount of genetic dh esityfo a sp~ified time peiod Yeas pe geneation: 15 Yealy% gowth ate: 1.03 Effective no. of foundes: 20 Estimated N./N atio: 0.5 Desied % heteozygosity etained 90 Length of time peiod: 225 yeas No. geneations duing peiod: Gen. gowth ate: Gen. expon. gowth: Effective Size equied to maintain desied amount of oiginal vaiation fo the specified length of time: Caying Capacity necessay to maintain desied amount of the oiginal \"dnation ove this time: t!. ', legal status, i.e. whethe o not the aea has been gazetted as a potected aea; land use plans and the stage of thei development; pessue to use the aea; altenatives available to use of land and thei cost; level of poaching; type of poaching: tappes in Sumata vesus Dyaks in Boneo; it \\ill be cheape to potect in Sumata; accessibility of the aea; pesent and futue manpowe to potect the hinos; cost of potection in elation to othe demand on esouces. Viable Populations of Asian Rhinos Cuently, five populations of geat onehomed hino, seven populations of Sumatan hino and possibly one population of Javan hino seem to satisfy the citeia fo minimum viable size, as well as pobable potectability (see Table 4). Table 4. Viable populations o the Asian hino 1 Species County /State Population ' Geat Onehoned Rhino ndia Kazianga Manas Oang Nepal Chitawan Badia Sumatan Rhino Peninsula Malaysia Taman Negaa Endau Rompin Sa bah Tabin Danum Valley ndonesia Gunung Lcuse Keinci Seblat Baisan Selatan Javan Rhino ndonesia UjungKulon B. Actual captive population sizes equied to pesen e 90% a> eage heteozyosity fo indicated numbe o yeas commencing with indicated numbe of effecti e foundes Geneation time Population gowth ate NJN atio Eledi>oe Fanles yeas Yeas C. Actual captive population sizes equied to peseve 90% aveage heteozygosity fo 225 yeas with indicated N.fN atios commencing with indicated numbe o effective oundes (assuming slow population gowth ate) Geneation time Population gowth ate NJN atio FlT.tM Funm S yeas N./N % D. Actual captive population sizes equied to peseve 90% aveage heteozygosity fo 225 yeas with indicated N.fN atios commencing with indicated numbe of effective foundes (assuming faste populalion gowth ate) Geneation time 15 yeas Population gowth ate 1.05 NJN atio 0.5 Effective Foundes N.fN

33 Thee is also the possibility that thee ac othe popu \at ions that can satisfy longtem viability citeia: e.g. Gunung Abongabong and LestenLukup in Cental Aceh (Sumata) o on Boneo in KalimantanSaawak fo Sumatan hino; in Dudhwa fo the geat on~honed hino; in ndochina fo Javan hino. But moe suveys must be conducted to secue infomation on these possibilities. Rhinos outside populations and aeas that do not satisfy the minimum viable size citeia will be of limited o uncetain viability and should be subjected to costbenefit analyses to detemine if they should be designated as inviable o "doomed". b. 1\ lodeation of envionmcnal stochasticity o vicissitudes. c. Management to maximise pesevation of genetic divesity. Consideing these factos, it appeas that establishment of a viable captive population should have pioity ove attempts at tanslocation of "doomed" hinos. Once a viable foundation fo a captive population is established, if thee ac moe ''doomed" hinos that need to be escued, pehaps tanslocation expeiments can be attempted if adequate habitat and esouces ae available. Options fo Doomed Animals Two options seem possible to attempt edemption of ''doomed" hinos: 1. Tanslocation Thee ac two vaiations of this option: a. Onetime movement of the animal to a lage and/o safe situation. b. Peiodic movement of animals among population emnants which ae too small to be viable by themselves but which might be managed by such atificial migation of genetic and demogaphic mateial to constitute a single lage population which could be viable. The latte vaiation has been poposed fo black hinos in Afica and geat on~ honed hinos in both Nepal and ndia. Howeve, the option may be much less applicable to Sumatan o Javan hino This kind of intensive management and atifical migation equies consideable infomation on the subpopulations, i.e. sexes, paentage, etc. Such infomation will be much moe difficult to collect on foestdwelles like the Sumatans than on lagely savanna animals like the black hino. The cost of moving many animals among a lage numbe of vey small populations and indeed of tying to potect numeous fagments also agues fo a minimum size fo such subpopulations. Although theoetically small populations of any size might be inteactively managed to ceate lage mctapopulations, the limited esouces available fo potection and manipulation of animals in the wild can be extended only so fa. Many poblems ac peceived and have aleady been obseved with tanslocations of hinos and othe vetebates. a. New animals may be disuptive to the social oganization of esident populations. b. Tanslocated animals may be disoiented in the new habitat and actually ty to epatiate themselves. c. Tanslocated animals may intoduce diseases and paasites. d. The habitats to which animals ac tanslocated may aleady be satuated unde pevailing conditions, e.g. poaching pessues as well as nonhuman aspects of the envionment. c. t may still not be possible to potect animals fom poaches. 2. Captive Popagation A numbe of clea advantages can be ecognised fo captive popagation. a. Potection fom poaches. Population Guidelines fo Asian Rhino in Capti\'ity Because of the limited space and esouces available in ex situ facilities, MVPs may have to be, and pobably can be, even moe pecisclydcfmed fo captive than fo wild populations. An objective fo captive popagation of aucmpting to peseve 90% of aveage heteozygosity fo 200 yeas ac common ecommendations of consevation biologists consideing caefully pinciples of population genetics (e.g. inbeeding) and demogaphy, as well as the likely peiod of time that human pessues will be most intense on v.ildlife. To achieve the objectives of peseving a significant faction (90%) of the wild gene pool fo an appeciable peiod of time (e.g. 200 yeas), a numbe of combinations of ultimate canying capacity, initial founde numbes, and population gowth ates \\.'ill poduce the desied esults. Table 5 povides some examples of the kinds of calculations that can geneate guidelines (using the Sumatan hino as an example). Despite some flexibility, the constaints imposed by the biological chaacteistics of the species will pescibe a citical minimum fo the numbe of foundes (i.e., animals out of the wild) that will be needed to establish the captive population. Consideing these factos fo Asian hino, a minimum of20 pais out of the wild ove the entie ange of the species (e.g., in the case of Sumatan hino, 11 pais out of Sumata, 5 out of Peninsula Malaysia, and 4 out of Boneo) seems necessay as a viable foundation fo the captive population, which itself will be distnbutcd ove Peninsula Malaysia. Sabah, ndonesia, Geat Bitain, and the United States. f and whee subspecies ac validated so that they should he peseved as sepaate entities, then a lage numbe of foundes may be needed to achieve the same genetic and demogaphic objectives. Mechanics fo Designation of Animals as noomed t will be the esponsibility of the counties of oigin to povide the infomation and the initial ecommendations to decide which animals should be consideed doomed and hence candidates fo captue. The UCN/SSC Asian Rhino Specialist Goup should eview and atify these decisions using the citeia delineated in this Appendix. Each county with Asian hinos should systematically analyse all known populations and submit ecommcndat ions fo"doomcd" o "not doomed" as soon as possible. Tables 13 epesent the kind of compilation of population and habitat sizes that can seve as the basis fo analysis. Such a systematic and compehensive analysis will in essence constitute the nucleus of a global masteplan fo consevation of all thee species. n the meantime, ugent cases that epesent both a need and an oppotunity fo captue to found the captive population should eceive immediate aucntion by the counties of oigin and then the UCN/SSCAsian Rhino Specialist Goup.. ~. 21

34 ~! 1 ' Appendix 2: The Singapoe Poposals on the Sumatan Rhinoceos Consevation Pog.tmme L The pimay goal is longtem suvival of the Sumatan hino as a species and a component of natual ecosystems. 2. A compehensive masteplan fo consevation oft he species will be developed, which will be collabo~tive and multinational in natue and which will identify and integate all of the actions necessay to achit:ve the pimay goal. 3. Development and ovesight of the masteplan will be the esponsibility of the UCN/SSC Asian Rhino Specialist Goup. a. Animals selected fo captue in the wild ac to be "doomed" individuals o come fom "doomed" populations o habitats~ that is, those whose futue longtem viability o contibution to the suvival of the species is detemined to be unsatisfactoy as measued hy objective citeia subject to continuing efinement. b. Cuently pesumed subspecies stocks will not be mixed, eithe in captive beeding o in the wild tanslocation, until futhe wok is done on thei taxonomy. ( 4. The consevation pogamme will include to follo~ing thee fundamental activities: a. Development of an education pogamme to enhance public awaeness and suppot fo the Sumatan hinoceos. b. Povision of pimay suppot fo a pogamme of consevation fo the Sumatan hinoceos as viable populations in sufficiently lage aeas of potected habitat. c. Establishment of a captive beeding pogamme fo the pesevation of the genetic divesity of the Sumatan hinoceos in the counties of oigin, including ndonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, and in Noth Ameica and Euope, using animals with no hope of suvival in the wild. The paties ae committed to contibute to each of these in each county as mutually ageed, with details subsequently ecoded in a bilateal memoandum of undestanding o simila document. 5. The following pinciples and actions ac to be obseved in the captive popagation pogamme: c. The zoo communities will povide suppot and technical assistance in field captue and tansfe opeations. d. Bilateal ageements will povide fo captive beeding pogammes in the counties of oigin as well as in the United States and United Kingdom. e. Animals sent aboad ;ll be on beeding lone fom the counties of oigin, o unde some similaly equitable owneship ageement of sufficient ime span to potect all inteests. f. All animals placed in captivity and thei futue pogeny will be managed coopeatively as pat of a "wold population" in the light of the pimay oveall goal of the pogamme. Decisions will be taken by consultation among the ownes and inteested paties with ovesight povided by the UCN/ SSC Asian Rhino Specialist Goup. g. Bilateal ageements will povide fo appopiate suppot, taining and technical assistance in captive beeding in the counties of oigin. Appendix 3: Captive Management Guidelines fo the Sumatan Rhino! l l ~! Because of the limited supply of animals, evey possible step must be taken to minimise motality. The following aspects should be taken into consideation: L Basic equiements. Thee should be lage enclosues, and public ac.:cess should be stictly limited. The paddock aea must have plenty of shade, and it is essential that the animals have a place whee they can wallow in mud. A holding pen should be connected to the paddock, constucted in such a way as to give the animals shelte fom advese weathe conditions. The holding pen should also have facilities that pemit veteinay cae to be pefomed. The diet should be kept as simila as possible to that in the wild; the species is a bowse and needs lage amounts of food, ich in fibe Beeding loans should take place within the same ESU (in this espect, taxonomic studies ac ugently equied). The epoductive ate is slow, and so it is theefoe ecommended that females be consideed fo longtem loans, and males fo shottem loans, taking into account the necessay geneic and demogaphic equiements. 3. Taining is an impotant aspect of the pogamme, and should include all aspects of veteinay cae and genetic analysis. The tained pesonnel should follow standadised pocedues fo the physical examination of animals; in paticula, body measuements and gowth ates should be ecoded; and all appopiate ecods should be sent on a yealy basis to the ntenational Studbook Keepe.

35 Refeences Andau, M.P Consevation of the Sumatan hinoceos in Sabah, Malaysia. Poceedings of the Fouth UCN/SSC Asian Rhino Specialist Goup Meeting. Rimba ndonesia 21( 4): Andau, M.P. and Payne, J The plight of the Sumatan hinoceos in Sabah. Repot pesented at the 8th Malaysian Foesty Confeence, Sandakan, Sa bah, August Andau, M.P. and Payne, J Consevation of the Sumatan hincoceos in Sabah, Malaysia. Repot pesented at the Meeting of the UCN /SSC Asian Rhino Specialist Goup meeting in Jakata, ndonesia, Octobe Blouch, RA Cuent status of the Sumatan hino and othe lage mammals in southen Sumata. A Wold Wildlife Fund epot. Bone, M.l979.A field study of the Sumatan hinoceos: Ecology, behaviou and consevation situation in Sumata. Ph.D. Dissetation, PhiliosophischNatuwissenschaftlichen, Fakultat of the Univesity of Basel, Switzeland. Caldecott, J.O. and Kavanagh, M Guidelines fo the use of tanslocation in the management of wild pimate populations. n: The babay macaque: a case study in consevation. Plenum, New Yok and London. Flynn, R. W. and Abdullah, M.T Distibution and status of the Sumatan hinoceos in Peninsula Malaysia. Biological Consevation 28: Foose, T J. and Thomas, W Captive popagation as pat of a consevation stategy fo Sumatan hino. Repot pesented at public foum on consevation of Sumatan hino, sponsoed by the Sabah Society, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Novembe Goves, C.P On the hinoceoses of Southeast Asia. Saugetiekunde Mitt. 15: Goves, C.P. and Kut F Diceoninus sumatensis. Mammalian Species 21: 16. The Ameican Society of Mammalogists. Khan, M Distibution and population of the Sumatan hinoceos in Peninsula Malaysia. Poceedings of the Fouth UCNJ SSC Asian Rhino Specialist Goup meeting. Rimba ndonesia 12( 4): Matin, E.B. and Matin, C Combatting the illegal tade in hinoceos poducts. Oyx 21: :tv1atin, E.B., Matin, C.B. and Vigne, L Consevation cisis the hinoceos in ndia. Oyx 21: Reynolds, RJ Asian hinos in captivity. ntenational Zoo Yeabook 2: Rooknaake, L.C. and Reynolds, RJ Additional data on hinoceoses in captivity. De Zoologische Ganen 55: Van Stien, NJ The Sumatwt o W(>/iomed Asiatic ilinoceos:a study of the liteatue. H. Veenman & Zonen, Wageningen, Nethelands. Van Stien, NJ. 1985a. The Sumatan ltinoceos in the Gunung Leuse National Pak, Sumata, ndonesia: its distibution, ecol O.[f', and consevation. Pivately published by the autho, Doom, Nethelands. Van Stien, NJ. 1985b. Repot on a pepaatoy mission fo the implementation of the "Singapoe Poposals" fo captive beeding of Sumatan hinoceos ( Diceoltinus sumatensis) as pat of a consevation stategy fo the species. UCN, Gland, Switzeland. Vigne, L. and Matin, E.B The Noth Yemen govenment and the hino hon tade. Swaa 10(4):

36 l ' l '. f l ' i l i SUMATRAN RHNO POPULATON AND HABTAT VABLTY ANALYSS WORKSHOP BREFNG BOOK SECTON 6: OVERVEW OF SUMATRAN TECTED AREAS AND GS ANALYSS

37 . 19 ndonesia Laacl ~ sq kml. 1,918,663 sq. km (ofiicii) Popul<tioa (19!~) 18U Nal Populatioa gmwth ate (19!72000) U ~cent bpe<ted a14imum populatioa (21 ~) 355 mioe1 Goss G1ioaal pn!cu<t (1917) us S450 pel c.a;im Rain OfeS1 (S4!1! GJH) sq. km Mootsooct lomt (see ~~~G Sl lj.740 sq. km Oosed bmoclleawdlcoaiienm~s foest (1980)t 1, sq. km At clef«utatioa me (1911S)t 6ol sq.l:m Aal cletocutatioa nne (lcm 1 taos) ~ 10 11JXXJ sq. l:m Ro.dwood pcociudioa" 173.S98.Dll OJ. m. RCMAMfwood e.qoom 1.131J)ll OJ. m Fvelwood aad dlcncoal pocluction" 133,9B',ooJ w. m Sawlog dlog ~ JXXJ m m Sawlog.dlog apots'" ma._,loomoj lxlj OJ. ll t (ltal~ flu (lftll ~!. ~ ' ndonesia is a huge achipelago extending fo 4500 km between the Asian and Austalian continents. Once moe o less completely coveed in topical ain and monsoon foests, ndonesia still etains well ove one million squae kilometes of such foests, moe than any othe nation in the egion. Woldwide, only Bazil has moe ain foest than ndonesia. Thee ae majo biogeogaphical diffeences between the diffeent pans of ndonesia, of which the most impotant ae between the westen and the easten ends. This diffeence is most clealy seen in the animals, which fom two goups, divided by Wallace's Line, which lies east of Boneo at the edge of the Sunda continental shelf and is one of the shapest zoogeogaphical fonties in the wold. The single most impotant family of topical timbe tees, the Dipteocapaceae, is found almost entiely in the lowland ain foests west of Wallace's Line, but in geneal this fontie is much less impotant fo plants than fo animals. Majo exploitation of the ndonesian ain foests fo timbe began in the 960s and is continuing today. The lowland ain foests of Sumata and Kalimantan have been paniculaly heavily logged and now, although vey lage aeas of foest cove emain, vey little is pistine. Exploitation has often been destuctive because Foest Depatment ules have been widely ignoed. Moeove, once oads have given access to fomely inaccessible aeas, fames have often moved in afte the timbe companies and then cleaed the elict, egeneating foest fo eithe pemanent o shifting cultivation. An exceptionally long and sevee dought in 9823 was followed in Kalimantan by foest fies, mostly stated inadvetently by these fames. Ove thity thousand sq. km wee buned, mostly compising logged foest containing a lot of dy debis, but thee ae epots of widespead egeneation. Foests have also been lost though convesion of land to plantation agicultue and to tansmigation schemes (see chapte 5). n ecent yeas the govenment has pogessively tightened enfocement of egulations concening foest exploitation and timbe pocessing. ndonesia pohibited log expots in 1980; all aponed timbe is now eithe sawn o convened to plywood, of which ndonesia is a majo wold supplie. Expon of aw attan was banned in ndonesian foests ae fabulously divese and ich in species. Seious damage, howeve, has been done ove the past quate centuy by the ampant timbe industy, especially to the west ndonesian dipteocap ain foests. Some wildlife is known to have been seiously affected, fo example clouded leopad, Sumatan hinoceos and elephant in Sumata. Exploitation is now stating to focus on the east ndonesian foests. n the late 1970s, F AO and UCN collaboated on a majo eview of the equiements fo adequate consevation. Reseves which exist, o wee poposed following this eview, cove 0 pe cent of the land aea and if effectively implemented should conseve most of the nation's heitage of species. n ndonesia thee is now a need to implement existing consevation plans and this will necessitate the stengthening of consevation institutions and a geate consevation awaeness amongst decision makes and the public. NTRODUCTON ndonesia compises a 4500 km long chain of islands stetching fom Sumata in the west to ian Jaya, the westen half of the island of New Guinea, in the east. This achipelago of 13,667 islands, of which about 1300 ae habitable, foms the geate pan of the phytogeogaphic egion technically temed Malesia. The thee islands of Sumata, Boneo and Java, togethe with intevening smalle ones, lie on the Sunda continental shelf and fomed pan of mainland Southeast Asia until geologically ecent times. To the west of Sumata, howeve, lie the Mentawai slands sepaated fom it by a deep ocean tench. New Guinea lies on the Sahul continental shelf and has had a land connection with Austalia. n contast Sulawesi and many of the Moluccan islands appea to have had no ecent connection with eithe continent and to have been islands fo a vey long time. The long ac of Sumata, Java and the Lesse Sundas has a spine of high mountains which in Sumata uns close to the westen coast and which contains many extinct and a few active volcanoes. The island of Boneo is mountainous in the cente and to the noth, and has a main ange sepaating Kalimantan fom Saawak and Sabah. Sulawesi is mountainous viu.ally thoughout. New Guinea contains some of the highest county in the southen hemisphee, with most of its mountain anges lying just to the noth of the island's nothwest!

38 NDONESA southcast axis. Much of this high county exceeds 4000 m and it culminates in ian Jaya, in the: 5039 m Gunung jaya (Mount Castcnz). n contast the easten half of Sumata, southen and easten Boneo, and southwesten Nev. Guinea ac lowlying and in pats swampy. The peoples oflndonesia ac divese in acial oigin, and the nation contains a ich mixtue of languages, cujues, eligions and customs. Thee is a cental govenment based in j akana (which as Batavia was capital of the fome Dutch East ndies), but the county is divided fo many administative puposes into povinces. The Foests ndonesia was once clothed in topical ain foests except fo the southen islands of easten java, Madua, Bali and the lesse Sunda islands which had topical monsoon foests. This bdt of seasoll2lly dy climate: and foests extends imo southc:n ian jaya, and nothwads into pats of southen Sulawesi. ndonesia contains moe: topical ain foest than any othe nation in the: AsiaPacific egion. All the: diffc:cnt topical ain foest fomations found in Malesia occu in ndonesia, and in fact fom thei geatest extent hee, as is descibed in the next section. Thee ac: majo egional diffeences in the: floistics of the: foests. The most impotant is tlut lowland ain foests of the: Sunda shelf islands, Sumata and Boneo, have an abundance of Dipteoc:apaa:ae. Animals show even stonge egional diffeences between westen and easten ndonesia, bounded by Wallace's line:. Some: key featues of the oiginal foest cove may be summaised by islands and island goups as follows: Suma1a (Sumaua) Lowland evegeen ain foest, dominated by diptc:ocaps, once occued thoughout the lowlands. Peat swamp foest and mangoves ac: extensive along the: eastc:n coast. The majo mountain spine has extensive montane ain foest, much of it still intact. n pats of the slightly dy cental intemontane valley and in the fa noth occu the only natual pine (Pinus mnlwsu) foests in ndonesia (FAO, 1982; Whitten et al., 1984). :Java Rain foests wee: pobably oiginally found in southwesten J._v; and in montane a.e.as, but ae now esticted to isolated montapatchcs. Teak, pobably intoduced by man, is extc:nsivdy planted in the seasonal lowlands in the cente and east. Naual monsoon foests, fomely extensive in nothen an.eastc:m java, ae now all heavily distubed. Whee fie is excluded the foest begins to change to lowc:t montane: foest, subalpine: foests and, on the highest mountain. tempeate hebaceous fomations. Extensive montane gassland have esulted fom foest destuction by fie. Limc:stone kast occus on the: southc:n and notheasten coasts most of which ae now planted with teak. Feshwate swamp foests and mangoves occu in a fcv. sma patches. Lesse S unda slan.ds ( N u.sa T enggaa) Savanna woodland with Camaina and Eucalyptus now cove most of these: islands. Evegec:n ain foest was neve extensive and only suvives ij) isolated patches in steep valleys on southfacing sides of mountail anges; elsewhee, thee ac: monsoon foests and extensive: gass lands. Timo ona: had extensive natual sandalwood (Sauaban album.,_ foests (FAO, 1982). The: montane: ain foests ac: not luxuiant and ac: chaactc:isecj by an absence of swathing byophytes, although some: have beads ol the lichen u~. Kalimanum Lowland evegeen ain foests occu up to about 1000 m; above them occu montane foests which, as is the case eveywhee in theegion, have abundant Fagaceae:, Lauaceae and Mynaa:ac:. Kalimantan has massive aeas of lowland ain foest as wc:ll ~ extensive: mangoves, peat and feshwate swamp foests, and thelagest heath foests (kc:angas) in Southeast Asia. Degadation is c:xtc:nsivc:, and thee ac: now bgc: ae.as of second ay foest, and lmpealll cylindica gasslands on land degaded by shifting cultivation and excessive foest exploitation. ~ Th Toau1 Rive in DumogaBcme Na1U1nal Pak, S~. pwidts wau fo iigation schmtes in tk fhlll.ty below. N. M. Collins

39 NDONESA, Sulawesi Extensive tacts of montane ain foests still occu. Tacts of lowl<tnd ain foests, except in the southwest peninsula, also occu extensively. Thee ae few dipteocaps; the main timbe species include Agalhis dammaa and ebony Diospyos spp. and the floa is less ich tlu.n on isl<tnds to the west. Sui<lwesi has the biggest tacts of foest ove ultabasic ocks in the topics (at the he:~d of the Gulf of Bone) with thei distinctive foest fomation, and also has lage aeas of kant limestone (especially in the southwest). Thee ae only small aeas of inland swamp foests. Mangoves occu in isol<tted patches in the south. Seasonal climates which once supponed monsoon foests occu, mainly in the south (Whitten tt al., 1987a). Table 19.1 ndonesian foest esouces Pennanmt foest Potection foest Natue: consevation foest Poduction foests Pemanent Limited Sub totals Olheland Foests fo alienation Alienated Aea (sq. km) 303, , , ,250 1,122, , ,010 %of Land aea Moluccas (Maluku) The Moluccan achipebgo is patly pehumid and patly seasonal so has both ain and monsoon foests, both lowbnd and montane. Othe fomations include small aeas of mangoves and feshwate swamps with extensive stands of sago (Metoxylon sagu). lianjaya Apat fom a belt of monsoon foest and savanna woodland in the fa south, the vegetation is one of the bgest expanses of pistine topical ain foest in Southeast Asia. Timbe tees include Ca[qphyllvm and /u.sia in the lowlands and AgtUhis and Aaucaia in the hills, whee they occu as dense stands. Lowe montane ain foests ae found at m, uppe montane foests up to m, above which subalpine foest and alpine heatblmd ae found. Feshwate swamp foests with sago palm and extensive mangove foests ae pesent, as well as huge tacts of peatswamp foest on the west coast, only discoveed in the 1980s. n the south is monsoon foest, savanna woodland with much Euazlypus, and gassland. The Fak Fak Mountains h2ve limestone foest and lage aeas of anthopogenic gassland. Beach foests have a ypicallndopacific stand floa and ae bette peseved than elsewhee in Malesia. Foest Resouces and Management Landuse planning in ndonesia depends upon a pocess of landuse classification at povincial level This pocess esulted in the publication of an account of ndonesian foest esouces in 1985 (Table 19.1). TheConsensusFoe.stumd UuPlan eveals that about 1.13 million sq. km of pemanent foest h2s been identified, and th2t a futhe 0.3 million sq. km of foest land is suitable fo convenion to nonfoest use. This is in addition to 0.49 million sq. km ale:~dy alienated. Since this assessment was undetaken, thee h2ve been impovements in the availability of data on slope, soil, climate and vegetation coveage that have enabled some finetuning. The Regional Physical Pbnning Pogamme fo Tansmigation (RePPPoT), funded by a loan fom the Wold Bank and bilateal aid fom the UK, has undetaken a complete: eclassification of ndonesia, based on available satellite imagey, aeial photogaphy and local infomation. At the time of witing, the data ae being dawn togethe and cannot be: pesented in detail (RePPPo T, 1990), but the geneal conclusions ae clea. Thee has been consideable agicultual encoachment into foest eseved fo consevation o timbe poduction puposes, and thee is an ugent need fo enfocement of consevation bws. At the same time, the new eview of land use potential is likely to ecommend that substantial aeasofbnd peviously classified as poduction foest is in fact suitable Sub t.otals Total 796,380 1,918,663 (Adapted fom Dcpan.amcn Kchuwun (1985), Bugess (1988) and Rd'PPoT (1990)) This figue idcludcs pzncd tanstial cscnes (CC Tab!<: 19.3), but D<K maine: esenocs. t diffes sli3blly fom tbe figue of 187,250 Q. km civm by Buqcss ( 1988), which C&QD()( be ccoocilcd wuh claa nai1ablc foe this atlti. fo alienation (i.e. convesion to othe uses), paniculaly to agicultual ueeaops. The official statistics esulting fom the RePPPo T study ae as yet unpublished, but the RePPPoT team bas geneously eleased a set of 1:2.5 million scale foest cove maps fo use in the pqmation of this atlas (see Map Legend). Using GS techniques it bas been possible to estimate foest cove statistics, detailed in Table t must be: emphasised that these data ae fo use only until the official RePPPoT epon is available:, but the data on these maps ae ex pected to be accuate within faily naow limits. Table 19.2 indicates 1,179,140 sq. km of topical moist foest in ndonesia, of which 1,148,400 sq. km ae ain foest. Rain foests occu thoughout the achipelago but the geatest extents ae in Kalimantan and ianjaya, e:~ch with ove a thidofamillionsq. km, and Sumata with almost a quane of a million. Monsoon foests ae much less extensive:, only found in the Lesse Sundas, Sulawesi and the Moluccas, with a total of just 30,740 sq. km. FAOUNEP (1981) estimated the closed boadleaved and con ifeous foest cove oflndonesia in 1980 at,138,950sq. km.ln 1987 FAO in Bangkok published a slightly adjusted figue of 1,134,970sq. km fo 1980, a figue of 1,134,730 sq. km fo 1985 and a pojected figue of 1,132,590 sq. km fo 1990 (FAO, 1987). As so often is the case, the mapped infomation is slightly moe geneous in tems of foest cove than data fom F AO would suggest. Nc:venbeless, the diffeence between the two sets of figues is small, only 4 pe cent. his encouaging to know that the RePPPo T poject h2s been able to poduce a set of eliable foest maps fo one of the bgest and most imponant ain foest aeas of the wold. The pesent extent of unlogged poductive foest emains in doubt. Lagescale logging began in 1967 and poduction figues show th2t some 435 million cu. m of timbe wee emoved ove the following 20 yeas. Bugess ( 1988) estimated that this epesents the poduce fom about 120,000 sq. km of poduction foest and th2t 524,000 sq. km of unlogged poduction foest emains as opeable: poduction foest and foest fo alienation (Table 19.). This figue does not include the 305,000 sq. km of limited poduction foest which is at pesent inaccessible and assumed to be: unlogged, although some will have been affected by shifting cultivation. 42

40 NDONESA Table 19.1 Estimates affoest extent Aea (sq. km) o/ocf land aea SUMATRA (472,610 sq. km) MOLUCCAS (69,230 sq. km) Rain foescs Rain foests Lowland 123, Lowland 44, Montane 32, Montane 1, lnland swamp 65, nland swamp Mangove 10, Mangove 1, Sub totals 230, Sub totals 47,14{) 68.1 Monsoon foests JAVA and BAL (138,580 sq. km) Lowland 8, Ramfoescs Montane Low12nd 7, Montane 5, Sub totals 8, nland swamp Mangove RAN JAYA (410,650 sq. km) Sub totals 13,74{) 9.9 Ram foests Lowland 232, Montane 54, LESSER SUNDAS (89,770 sq. km) nland swamp 49, Rain foesls Mangove 17, Lowland Montane nland swamp Sub un.als 354, Mangove Sub un.als NDONESA (1,918,663 sq. km)l Rain foests Lowland 783,170 4Q.8 Monsoon foescs Montane Lowland 12, nland swamp ' 179, Montane 1, Mangove 44, , Sub to.als 13, Sub to.als 1,148, Monsoon foescs KALMANTAN (534,890 sq. km) Lowland 29, Rainfoests Montane Lowland 298, Montane 25, Sub totals 30,74{) 1.6 nland swamp Mangove 1, GRAND TOTALS 1,179,14{) 61.5 Sub tot.als 397, SULAWES (184,84{) sq. km) Rainfoests Lowland 77, Montane 21, nland swamp 2, Mangove 2, Sub totals 104, Based oo analyses of Maps 19.1 to Sec Map l4cnd fo deuils of souces. M ouoon foests ' Tbc aeas of the egions an: estimated fom the maps and ae not official s~tistics. Lowland 8, Tbc tou.l aea of the county by this method is 1,900,570 sq. km, but fo calcubting the pea:n~ foest cove fo the whole tution luve adopted the offici:&! figue Sub tozals 8, fo total land aea, i.e SQ. km.

41 2: ~ "' ;;: 2 0 z+ " ~ :::: ~ L.LJ ~ V,). ~ ::::: _ ~ :c:: ~ """'), ::::, L.LJ ::X: V,) V,) ~, a: 5 en => z w a. \ \ ' <:: <:: ~ ~ 1: c::.. (.;) <:: c::. ' <;, ' ~ nnn1 11 n

42 Regional Resouces Sumata The population density on Sumata (59 people pe sq. km in 1980) is elatively high and lage aeas of ain foest have been cleaed fo agicultue o industial plantations (Whitten~~ al., 1984). On the flat lowlands of southen Sumata, fo example,!:he geat stands of ionwood Eusilkoxylon zwagm, a species of geat commecial im ponance poducing an exceptionally duable timbe, have been almost entiely destoyed. Relatively lage aeas of the shallowe peat swamp foests along the Malacca Stait ae being dained to povide famland fo new t2jlsdliga.nts (see chapte 5). About 230,660 5q. km, o 49 pe cent, of the oiginal foest cove emains (Table 19.2 and Map 19.1), but!:hee is no doubt that lage aeas ae degaded. n ecent yeas!:hee has been heavy logging in!:he lowlands east of the main mountain spine. Estimates fom 1975 indicated that 42 pe cent of Sumata was coveed wit:h pimay foest at th.at time (F AO/ UNEP, 1981), but the figue is cetainly much lowe now. Figue 19.1 damatically illustates!:he apid depletion of pistine lowland topical ain foest in Sumata (Map 19.1 shows logged as well as pistine foest). Sumata pobably continues to lose its natual vegetation faste than any othe pat of ndonesia. FJgU.e 19.1 Pistine foests in Sumata "This is based on cuu fom 1932 (Wbinm n a/., 1984), about 1980 {Whitman:, 19S4a) :and the mid1980s(laumonie t1 al., 1986)_ N«c thotlogc:d fotcstsaeadudc:d fom this~. ot >< included in M which theefo< shows moe cxtensm: ov~. NDONESA Java and Bali 1 ava, one of the most densely populated islands in the wold, has lost moe than 90 pe cent of its natual vegetation. Pimay foests emain only in mountainous egions at ele\ ations above 1400 m. Vitually all lowland ain foests have been eplaced by fams o plantation foests. At the end of 1980 closed boadleaved foest cove was estimated to be only 8 pe cent, 11,800 sq. km (FAOUNEP, 1981), although Map 19.2 indicates slightly moe, 13,740 sq. km o 9.9 pe cent. Lesse S U7ld4 slmuis Topical ain foests wee neve extensive and suvive only in small isolated patches, usually in steep valleys. Map 19.3 indicates 900 sq. km emaining. Seasonal monsoon foests wee moe widespead, and still cove 13,690 sq. km (15 pe cent of land aea). Closed boadleaved foests wee estimated by F AO to cove 25,250 sq. km (28 pe cent) at the end of 1980 (FAOUNEP, 1981), ove 10,000 sq. km moe than ou maps suggest. Much of the oiginal foest cove has been degaded by human activity to open $avann3 woodlands o conveted to agicultue. Kalimanum Kalimantan suppou the lagest expanse of uopical ain foest in Southeast Asia. t is less dc:nscly populated than othe pans of the achipelago and ou cbca indicate that almost theequane:s of the land suface was still unde natual vegeation in the second half of the 1980s, an estimated 397,320 5q. km (Map 19.4 and Table 19.2). FAO estimated only 353,950 5q. km of dosed foest in 1980, so thee is some discepancy between the cbcasets (FAOUNEP, 1981). The lowland foests b2ve been heavily logged since the late 1960s. n 1983a hugeaea(ove30,000sq. km)ofkalimantan, including 8000 sq. km of pimay foest, was destoyed by fie o dought (Malingeau ll al., 1985) (see case study). Much of the land officially classed as foest is seiously degaded and huge aeas of Jmpeauz gassland exist. Sulawesi Sulawesi has extensive tacts of pimay ain foest although lage aeas in the south and some pans of the cente and nonh of the island have been cleaed fo pemanent and shifting cultivation. Table 19.2 and Map 19.5 indicate foest cove ove about 60 pe cent of the island, vitually all of this being ain foest. The foest cove pe inhabitant is ge:"!te than in Sumata, java, Bali, o the Lesse Sundas. This is panly due to!:he high poponion of land on steep slopes which ae unsuitable fo agicultual development (Whitten e1 al., 1987a). Moluccas The Moluccas compise an achipelago of hundeds of islands anging in size fom Seam and Halmahea, c. 18,000sq. km each, to small, mostly uninhabited islets with an aea of only a few ha. The lagest tacts of topical ain foest occu in Halmahea and Scam. The small aeas of feshwate swamp foest have been patly eplaced by stands of sago palm intoduced fom ian and cultivated as an impotant sou~ of stach. The Moluccas have an estimated 56,070 sq. km of moist foest, coveing ove 80 pe cent of the land aea. Although Map 19.6 indicates monsoon foest on Bat jan sland and southen Halmahea, ecent epots indicate!:hat this may in fact be ain foest.

43 l">dones\ ~ ', ian Jaya ian Jaya, the eastenmost povince of ndonesia, shaes a common 736 km long bode with Papua New Guinea. The feshwate swamp foests include huge stands of native sago palm, managed and utilised as thei staple food by the indigenous people. The mangove foests ae second m extent only to those of the Sundabans foest of ndia and Bangladesh. They have ecently come unde theat of exploitation. and possible destuction, to pov1de wood ChipS (f'e!ocz, 1985). About 86 pe cent ( sq. km) of ian Jaya emams foested and clativelv und1stubed, because the population S low and concentated mamly m some pans of the mountams. Extensl\"C loggmg concessions have now been ganted and then ae plans fo substantial tansmigation schemes. Defoestation The annual ate of deioestaton m lndones1a was estimated at S SOO sq. km pe yea fo the vcas , and 6000 sq. km pe vca fo Moe ecentlv ate~ of 7000 sq km pe vea ha\ e been quoted :Repeuu. 19!1!\J, hut 11,000 sq. km pe yea tg!lil~. 1988, and even sq km pe vca (Mves, 1989 have been teaed Such defoestation :ues pla~e ndonesia second tn the v.old only to Baz!l Despte the h1gh ate of defoestation n the ndones1an ach1peiago. howeve. topcal am foests still occu cxtens\'eh on all the lage 1slands. Nevenhclc:ss, the: ac: a of the: OT!!nal \'e~etat1on cove ha~ been constdeablv educed. and mu, h of the ema1nmg lncst has been senously distubed hy loggm~ and shiiung agn:ulue A~>nculual Sl'tlitmm Tad1110nal sw1dden agncultuc wulun lage expanses oi am ioest S dat1vel\ hamless, m contast to smallholde agn:ultual sculement. wh1ch gadually makes m~oads 3t the: ioes: mag1ns. \\"hee the: la[[e 1s unplanned, 11 has become a mato facto connhutm~ tn the de.cadauon of ndonesia's foests All to<' the foest magms employs cude and exploitative agncultualt mques which. combmed w11h mappopnate soils. inevuablv lc;, foest and soil degadation (see chapte 4 ). Sh1ftmg cultivation is fa moe extens1ve than tad1110nal sw1.: and is now the dommant fom of landusc in most of Kalimantan!nan Jaya. and fequently m Sumata, Sulawesi and the Le Sundas. lndoncs1an Foesty Depatment Statistics ( 19856) 1 cae that appox1matelv one million families ac pacusmg shd culuvatlon on ~q. km of land. Howeve, the numbe ol 1 time sh1ftmg cultivatos m lndones1a undouhtcdlv fa cxcn:d~ llguc, and the nauonal Land Resouces Development Cc:me < mates the.~ea unde sh1ftmg cuhl\'atum m K<~hmantan.Jl"nc sq km Futhemoe. the aea ol foests afk~o:ted th ~hd agncultual actl\'lllcs m the ndonesian ach1pdago ~ mcc;j\ o~~ hh lw a::. much a~ 5000 sq. km pe vea t~o:hapte c; Tile some local es1stann: to suggestions that shifting culuvato~ espom1ble fu foest degadauon, paticulaly fom people. bchevc that the espon~c: will be attcm 1 11s to elocate famd cs lo. foest w11hout pm 1dmg them w11h an altenative means oi ~upp Th1~ S a vahd concen because a numbe of such mlllali\t' wl wee sponsoed b\ lndoncs1an agencie::. ll the past tc g v1l mcnt pugammcs. h.tve failed becausc thcv mvolved tocej ei 11on o hcc:just thn ponjcd nsuflicicnt land tu mjl poductivt\ n add1110n to the enomous spead ol unplanned ~mjllhoi agncultual sclllcmcnt. lndones1a ha~ undetaken ;, ~uh.tan pl~nned settlement pn ganmc wuhm the amtoesto Th 'T. mgatj<hl Pogamme. and 1ts 1mpact on the loest~. 1S desctihc: detad m chapte ~ Subst:m:1al ac2o. o! lndones1a s lowland foc:>t~ ha\t hcelj, \'Cted. o ac s.:hedulcd to be convened, to mdustna! tee ' plantauons such as ml palm and ubbe. The ecent eas~e~,~mc;,!jnd usc potentia! thou!!hout hc: ach1pclag(> ha~ Tld~catcd : manv moe aeas cuc:ntlv unde natual oes: ac suuabk lo, C<1nves on 1 RePPPoT. 1990, Ddocstat1un toaccomnhh.j~:, : Lo~:gtd(]7) Ql!d htavly d~:aded foest on Obi sland in tht unt s uudas, ndol'sl' D. Lauent

44 Legging The logging industy has devcloped fom almost nothing since about 1967, soon afte Pesident Suhato came to powe, though the goundwok had been laid sc:v~al yeas ealie. The new govenment awaded geneous timbe concessions to focign companies eage to exploit the vast, untapped stands of valuable hadwoods. By 1988 concessions had been established ove appoximately 534,000 sq. km {Bugess, 1988), slighdy in excess of ndonesia's potentially poductive lowland foests (soe Foest Resouces and Management, page 143). Thee has been pogessive eplacement offocign by loa! companies and an incease: in loa! pocessing of the timbe so that, instead of logs, sawn timbe and plywood have been expoted since Timbe concessions ae gnnted by the Foesty Depatment fo 20 yeas, which is substantially shote than the havest cycle of 35 yeas. This encouages some timbe companies to take a shottem THE GREAT FoREST FRE of BoRNEo, At the end of an uncommon (but not unpecedented) 18month long dought in the lagest foest fie in ecoded histoy buned a huge aea of East Kalimantan. The tow aea destoyed eithe by fie o by the dought itself was c. 33,000 sq. km, equal in size to thewholeoftaiwanothenethelands(figue 19.2), 17 to 20 times the aea of the much publicised Austalian bush fies of 1982, o about 1500 times the size of the aea buned by foest fies which aged in F20Ce at the end of n East Kalimantan, the povince which makes the geatest contibution to ndonesia's timbe poduction, the aea affected included appoximatdy 8000 sq. km ofunloggcd dyland pimay ain foest, 5500 sq. km of peat swamp foest, 12,000 sq. km of selectively logged foest and 7500 sq. km of shifting cultivation and settlements (M.alingcau a al., 1985). n them.alaysianstateofsabahafuthe 10,000sq. km of foest lands wee seveely damaged. The dought was associated with the El Nino Southen Oscillation Event. The fie stated duing the dought in the fidds of fames who had moved in afte logging, in many cases illegally. t was able to spead quickly in logged foest whee dead, dy emains of tees lineed the foest floo and also in peat swamp foest, whee the dy suface peat buned fiecely, destabilising tees which wee then toppled by the wind. n the peat swamps nea the Mahakam Rive coal seams at the suface also aught alight and assisted the fie's pogess. Besices damage to the foests, othe consequences of the Geat Foest FJ'C of Boneo included: Significant inceases in eosion (with associated damage to fisheies and educed navigability of ives). Disuption of the taditional lifestyles of local inhabitants though Joss of foest poducts. Destuction of wild animal populations. The same dought also esulted in fies in Sumata and Halmahea (.Moluccas). Anothe lesse dought in 1987 was followed by fies in Sumata and in south ~ntan. FtgUC 19.2 The location of foest aeas killed by dought and fies in Boneo, (S<MU: afte Malingc:au n ll., 1985) NDONESA view because: they believe it is not likcly that they will be able to take advantage of a second havest. Dipteocap foests ae exploited on a sc:lection system with a minimum felling diamete of 50 em dbh, but enfocement of concession tems has been difficult as thee ae insufficient staff to monito havesting in emote aeas. Felling bclow the legal gith limit is appac:ndy aely pactised, but the esidual stand is vey badly damaged because: of poo tcdmiques (Bugess, 1988). Concessions tc:nd to be ceamed fo the best tees so that the whole foest is logged long befoe the expiy of the cycle; this is thc:n followed by equests to clog befoe the cycle peiod has elapsed (Bugess, 1988). The Foest Depatment has pogessivcly tightened enfocement of the egulations, but huge aeas of foest have been desttuctivdy exploited and these: degaded aeas pose: a seious futue challal6e. A completdy unexpected haz2d oflogging is that the ain foest becomes vulneable to fies (soe case study below). LDgging in ndonma ~ bthind lmgt qwmilies of debis tluu tn'esetu a uiou.s fit isk dunng pmods of douglu. WWF/A Compost Thee is litde o no published infomation about the egenea tion of the doughtsticken and bunt foests; indeed thee was little infomation made available at the time of the dought itself. Thee ae now epots that ove 600 sq. km of fome natual foest land is being tuned ove to industial timbe plantations, mainly of Albizia, Gmelina and Eucalyptus. At the height of the dought vast aeas of foest appeaed to be dead. Only the biggest tees, such as Koompassia o.:alsa, emained in leaf. By 1989, howeve, P. Bugess, a foeste woking in the egion, noted that many of the dipteocaps wee tuning geen once moe. The aeas affected by dought and fie have not been excised fom.map 19.4 patly because of a lack of detailed data, but also because: egeneation appeas to be quite possible if the foest is given an oppotunity to ecove.

45 ,,. Taaj1ag Denlant C e e b e s S e a Makassa Stait Map 19.4 Kalimantan (ndonesia) Rain f1lests kjwtand mns.le" inllnd~ ::: === ll'llflom Cotlsevation east Non fofest Highttlal m:m t Only (J/ Of CM!f 50sQ.km e~ (N.D.) no llltl 1:4,000,000 ; o sp kilometes ~~~~~~ lilt miles lt:donesa Consequenus of defoestation Loss of ndonesia's topical ain fo ests h.as had sevee biological, social and physical consequences. n ndonesia, as elsewhee, caeless foest exploitation with cynical disegad of the ules laid down fo log extaction and oad constuction, h.as led to substantial soil eosion, with consequent silting of ives and iegulaity of ive flow. n the uplands of java dense populations, continually advancing into steepe uppe watesheds and moe maginal envionments, have had significant and destuctive effects on nutient outflow, total wate yield, peak stomfiows and steam sedimentation (sec also Bengkulu case sudy fo Sumata). On Java, paniculaly extensive eosion has occued, notably in aeas unde annual copping systems whee the soil is distubed and left exposed duing citical peiods (e.g. duing the tansition fom the dy to the wet seasons). A vaiety of govenment pojects and pogammes seek to pomote changes in fanning systems and land use in ode to limit envionmental degad2tion, but in many upland communities soil and wate consevation pnctices have been adopted only to the extent that they seve to impove yields in the shot tem. Eosion can also make a seious and expensive impact on iigation schemes. Fo example, in 1973 the Gumbaa iigation scheme was initiated in the Palu valley (Sulawesi) with the intention of supplying wate fo the development of S sq. km of ice fields. Twentythee yeas late, howeve, only SO sq. km wee being iigated and the iigation canals now have to be dedged evey yea when about 30,000 cu. m of soil is emoved. This excessive siltation esults lagely fom the activities of a logging company which has been active since 1978 (Whinen e al., 1987a). HEAVY FLooDs Fouow FoREST DESTRUCTON N BENGKULU VNCE, SUMATRA The convesion of foest into agicultual holdings, some of which have poved ephemeal and been abandoned, is a paticulaly seious cause of consevation poblems in Sumata. t is estimated that between 6S and 80 pe cent of the foests in the lowlands of Sumata have aleady been lost (see tgue 19.1). The mountain aeas have so fm been less seiously affected, but the disuption of continuous cove is aleady substantial in some cases (see KeinciSeblat case sudy), and pehaps 15 pe cent of thei total aea bas aleady been emoved. The lowland foests that ae so ich in both plants and animals ae being destoyed indisciminately in Bengkulu Povince and this h.as led to seious envionmental poblems affecting thousands of villages. The loss of lowland foests is nowhee moe seious than on eithe side of the D2in oad unning noth fom Bengkulu to MukoMuko. The scale of defoestation of such ich wildlife habitat is enomous, and thei destuction had been caied out with intenational involvement in eplacing topical ain foest by monoculues of oil palm and cocoa. These activities wee diectly esponsible fo floods which in 1988 in Bengkulu povince destoyed the possessions of thousands of people. Defoestation was followed by soil eosion and massive landslides and floods when the ains finally aived. n the absence of foests, flood contol measues have poved both expensive and athe ineffective. Souce: Chales Santiapillai

46 NDONESA Mangoves Mangoves ac estimated to cove 44, 130 sq. km in ndonesia (Table 19.2), epesenting a majo incease ove an ealie estimate of21, 700 sq. kn (UCN, 1983). They ae most extensive in ian Jaya, paticulaly aound Binuni Bay in the nothwest, but lage tacts and many smalle fomations occu scatteed thoughout the achipelago (Koesocbiono tl al., 1982; Soegiato and Polunin, 19&1; Pctocz, 1985 and Subagjo, 1987). ndonesian mangoves wee little affected by lagescale foest exploitation until1975 (UCN, 1983), but they ac pobably now the most theatened foests in the achipelago (Petocz, 1985). Some desuuction of mangoves has OCC\1T'ed as a esult of ovc<xj>loitation by taditional uses, but most desuuction esults fom convesion of the land fo agicultue, backish wate fishponds, salt ponds, and human settlement (Hanson and Koesocbiono, 1987). Fishponds ae paticulaly extensive in Sulawesi, Java and Sumata, extending to about 1850 sq. km by 1982 (Soemodihadjo, 1984). Since the mid1970s mangove foests in ndonesia have also been utilised fo wood chips, expoted to Japan fo the poduction of cellulose o pape. Thee is no evidence that the cae necessay to exploit the mangoves in a nondestuctive manne is being t2ken, and in consequence foest egeneation is poo. Biodivesity No othe county has esponsibility fo moe divese and unique species than does ndonesia. Although ndonesia occupies only 1.3 pe cent of the land suface of the globe it contains an estimated 10 pe cent of all plant species, 12 pe cent of mammals, 6 pe cent of eptiles and amphibians and 17 pe cent of bids. This is patly because it is situated at the heatland of the AsiaPacific humid opics, but also speads inw lage aeas of seasonal climate, so that both ain foest and monsoon elements occu. ndonesia's wildlife is influenced by both the geological supecontinents of Gondwanaland and Lauasia, each of which has contibuted a ich and distinctive biota, faily shaply delimited (espccially fo animals) at Wallace's Line. The small geologically isolated islands west of Sumata, paticulaly the MentavU slands, have developed a suite of endemic species, including fou pimates. New Guinea and Boneo ae pobably the individual islands with geatest ichness and divesity. nfomation on the nonndonesian pats of these geat islands may be found in chaptes 21 and 24 espcctivdy. ndonesia's floa is one of the ichest in the wold, encompassing most of the Males ian floistic egion, which has ove 25,000 species of floweing plants including about 0,000 tees (FAO, 1982). About.W pe cent of plants ae endemic at the geneic lcvd. Westen Malesia is the cente of divesity of dipteoc:aps, which fom me basis of me logging industy. About 262 of 386 species of dipteocaps ae found in Kalimantan, which is being heavily logged as a esult. On small plots of about one hecue Bomean ain foests ae uniqudy ich in tee species, only equalled by pats of Amazonia (Whitmoe, 1990). About 430 of ndonesia's 1500 species of bids, almost 200 of its 500 mammals, and a lage popotion of the 1000 eptiles and amphibians and unknown numbes of invetebates ae found nowhee dse. Even within ndonesia many ae vey localised. The pans of ndonesia lying on the Sund.a Shelf, i.e. Sumata, Java, Bali and Kalimantan, include some of the lage placental mammals, such as tige, hinoceos, elephant, oang utan, seow and banteng. n contast, the mamm:alilln fauna of ian Jllya, on the Sahul Shelf, is The conuquenas of 10al difot:stalitm an disastous fa soils. Eom on gmtk slopa, piley eosion cm ocaa, as hee ins!dawcti. N. M. Collins

47 , Jill., Jill chaacteised by masupial cuscuses (Phalanga spp.), uee kangaoos (Dn.dolagus spp.), and bandicoots (Echymipaa spp.), and the monoueme longnosed echidna (Zaglossus buijni). Othe than man, thee ac no pimates in Ausualia and New Guinea. Between these Sunda and Sahul goups of islands lies Wallacea, a biogeogaphical zone that includes Sulawesi, the Lesse Sundas and the Moluccas, which contain a cuious mixtue of Asian and Austalian fauna including bizae foms such as the babiusa and the anoas (Bubalus spp.), as well as macaques, tasies, squiels and cuscuses. Rodents and bats ae numeous and include a wealth of endemic foms such as the tue giant ats and wate ats of ian jaya as well as smalle nectaeating bats upon which many fuit uees ac dependent fo pollination. The bid life is extaodinay in its ichness and ange of fom and habitat. Among the endemics ae the bids of paause and bowa bids, the flightless cassowaies, divese families of honeyeatcs, kingfishes, pigeons, and vaious paots. The megapodes ae lage goundnesting bids that incubate thei eggs in soil wamed by hot spings o otting oganic matte. Othe spectacula species include bombills, many aptos and a wealth of foest specialists such as babets, pittas, pheasants, flycatches and whistles. Fou species of cocodiles occu in swampy and coastal aeas, some of which ac bed in special anches that bing evenue to ual people. The small islands off Floes ae home to the wold's lagest lizad, the Komodo dagon V aanus lunwdomsis. Flying and filled lizads, feshwate tutles, skinks, geckos and tee fogs fom ich a.ssanblages of species. nsect life is SpectaCUla, and includes the bidwings (Toides and Omidwpea spp.), which ae the lagest butteflies in the wold and some of the aest (Collins & Mois, 1985 ). Seveal species ae being eaed in buttefly fanns to supply zoos in Euope and Noth Ameica. Thee have aleady been extinctions, of which the Bali and Java subspecies of tige (Ptnllhea tigis baliaz and P. tigis sandaica) ae pobably best known. Unfotunately ndonesia bas the wold's longest list of venebflltes theatened with extinction, including 126 bids (Colla and Andew, 1988), 63 mammals and 21. eptiles (UCN, 1988). Most species ae theatened because they cannot suvive ain foest cleaance. A few examples may be given hee: 1 The most seious theat to the clouded leopad and othe lage mammals in Sumata is clea felling of foests fo convesion to agicultue o human settlements. At the tum of the centuy when much of Sumata was pincipally coveed with pimay ain foest, the clouded leopad pobably maintained continuous populations thoughout the island. Today this species, although still found in the eight povinces of Sumaua, occus only in a few isolated aeas (Santiapillai, 986). 2 Foest cleaance has also advesely affected the status of some bid populations. The last ecoded sighting of the Caeulean paadiseflycatche took place in 1978 on the uppe slopes of Mount Awu on Sangihe, an island located off the nonhen tip of noth Sulawesi (White and Buce, 1986). Vitually all of Sangihe has now been convened to coconut and nutmeg plantations o else is coveed by patches of seconday foest. Some pimay foest emains on Mount Sahendauman in the south of Sangihe, but even if a few flycatches emain in this small aea it is unlikely to be lage enough to ensue the suvival of the species (Whitten tt al., 1987b). The Javan wattled lapwing (Vanellus macopceus) is aleady believed to be extinct (MacKinnon, 1988). To those who appeciate ndonesia's incedible natual wealth, little moe needs be said to waant its pesevation and potection. To the vast numbe of ual ndonesian citizens, whose lives ae closely tied to the foests o depend upon the sea fo thei subsistence and livelihood, consevation of natual esouces has become a NDONESA go'll:ing impeative, so that the benefits they now enioy can be sustained into the futue. Those who seek to exploit the natual esouces on an industial scale emain to be pesuaded that the longtem wealth of the achipelago, and pehaps the welfae of the wold, is linked with sustainable utilisation of!his biological divesity. Consevation Aeas and nitiatives fo Consevation Conseving the nation's biological heitage pesents an exceptional challenge to ndonesia, but one that can be met. The Govenment has ecognised the ugent need fo consevation and, in view of the pogessive loss of its natual vegetation, is planning to incease substantially the aea of foest estate unde potection by the end of the centuy. With the pesent ate of change, any aeas left unpotected by that time ae not likely to emain intact. At pesent the achipelago has ove 320 consevation eseves coveing some 175,000 sq. km o 9.1 pe cent of land aea (Table 19.3). n addition to these gazetted aeas, thee ae seveal majo souces of poposals fo new potected aeas and extensions to existing aeas. 1 A futhe 185 aeas encompassing almost 30,000 sq. km have been ecommended by PHPA, and await a decision by the Ministy of Foesuy. Many of these aeas have been chosen because of thei wate catchment functions as well as to potect aeas of biological ichness (FAO, 1982; UCNUNEP, 1986). 2 Additional poposals have been made in an eightvolume National Consevation Plan poduced in 1982 by the govenment of ndonesia with FAO assistance (FAO, 1982). Objectivity to ensue consevation of all species and habitats was a majo tenet of the Plan. Howeve, pllctical consideations wee also taken into account and the candidate sites wee evaluated by quantifying the elationship between tb.ee factos: impotance in peseving geneic divesity, socioeconomic justification, and management viability. 3 Poposals in the Consevation Plan have been supplemented by the identification of key consevation sites in the Maine Consevation Plan (Salm and Halim, 1984), the ian Jaya Consevation Development Stlltegy (Petocz and Raspado, 1984) and the ndonesian wetland inventoy (Silvius tt al.~ 1987). These poposals togethe ecommend an additional200 aeas which have yet to be appoved. They total212,530 sq. km (11.1 pe cent of land aea). The existing and poposed potected aea system of the county offes excellent coveage of all habitat types. f the Govenment implements in addition most of the ecommendations included in the National Consevation Plan it will have one of the finest and most compehensive potected aea netwoks in Southeast Asia (UCN/ UNEP, 086). Thee is no need fo futhe suveys to identify moe new potected aeas; the pioity must now be the implementation of existing poposals and management plans (UCNUNEP, 1986). These have ecently been futhe efined by the identification of key eseves fo pioity action (RePPPoT, 1990). One of the majo constaints to implementation, howeve, is a lack of tained and motivated pesonnel. Staff ecuited fom the foesty sevice ae usually not tained in the theoy o pactice of potected aea management, and foest guads and pak wadens lack motivation and ae pooly paid. Thee is theefoe an ugent need fo manpowe development befoe consevation wok can begin. nceased funding is also needed. The total budget and evenues povided by the Ministy of Foesty fo consevation in ndonesia's fouth Five Yea Plan ( 19849) wee about US $12 million. Less than US$2 million wee allocated fo potected aea management. This is not sufficient to ensue that the county's eseves ae efficiently managed. nceased financial esouces must be mobilised if ndonesia's netwok of paks is to povide any meaningful potection to a biological heitage that is of majo global significance.

48 NDONESA HUMAN ENCROACHMENT N SUMATRA'S CONSERVATON.AREAS The KennciSeblat National Pak (Figue 19.3) is situated along the Baisan mountain ange in the southen half of Sumata. With a total aea of 14,847 sq. km it is the lagest consevation aea in Sumata. The impotance of KcinciSeblat lies in the fact that the foests potect the watesheds of two of Sumat.1's most impotant ives, the Musi and Batang Hai. ts stength so fa has been its shee size, but, given the cuent ate of defoestation, as a esult of human encoachment both fom within and outside the pak, it is one of the most seiously theatened paks in ndonesia. The main consevation poblem is the convesion of foest to agicultue by shifting and shifted cultivatos esident in the enclave, whose aea is 1460 sq. km. This enclave is inhabited by a population of about 273,000 people that is gowing at an annual ate of 3.6 pe can. Given the ichness of the volcanic soil, the pincipal activity of the human population in the enclave is agicultue. Paddy is cultivated c:xtcnsivcly on the plateau and Keinci Povince is selfsufficient in ice. Recent immigants into Keinci have extended thei activities beyond the bode of the enclave well into the pak, dea felling foests to cultivate paddy. When soil fetiliy deceases, othe cash cops such as cinnamon, cloves and coffee ae gown. Lage aeas of foests have so fa been eplaced bv cinnamon plantations Misuse of land is the most senous conse; vation poblem in Keinci and aleady the hills that bode the enclave have been completely defoested. The buffezone in Keinci coves about 500 sq. kn and consists of denuded hills and abandoned cleaings. The most impotant consevation measue that needs to be adopted hee is a complete ban on any futhe encoachment and the elocation of all illegal settles to aeas outside the pak. Hand in hand with this must be the estoation of all the deelict lands though efoestation pogammes using ndonesian species such as Paaseianthes (Albizia) falcauzia, Pinus melwsii and suian (T oona SUTnl ). The development of the buffe zone and the egulation of the landusc activities of the settles is vital to such measues. The cum:nt tends ae likely to esult in the gadual but c:ewn destuction of Sumata's most impotant consevation aea. Souce: Chales Santiapillai Figue 19.3 The: Kc:inci Sc:blat National Pak, Sumata tsnv,a Chlle' SJn!iJiiiJi' On Obi sland in M USUT Sundas, logging em 4S slo,m has ud to seve~ dama n tl fn.< cm. sulm!' i1 n.inn and n<< n(fih : n Lauen~

49 R~cualilm Paks l!'>:doses.~ Table 19.3 Consevation aeas of ndonesia Existing and poposed aeas, SO sq. km and ove and fo which we Sebolangit 544 ~ have location data, ae listed below. The emaining aeas ae Pocecud Fotst.s combined in a total unde Othe Aeas. Potected foests ac Bukit Balaiejang 167 included, but Foest Reseves have been excluded. Fo data on Bukit Dingin!Gunung Dempo 381 ASEAN sites and Biosphee eseves see chapte 9. Bukit Hitan!Sanggul!Dingin" 694 Bukit Nantiogan Hulu!Nanti Existing Poposed Komeung Hulu" 362 aea aea Gunung Meapi" 97 (sq. km) (sq. km) Gunung Patah/Bepagu 1Muaa Duakisim 917 ~ Gunung Singgaiang 97 NDONESA Sumata Huun Sinlah" 810 National Paks Kambang!Lubuk Niu 1,000 ~ Gunung Lcusc 8, (ext) Keinci Sebiat 14,847 Sub lotals 45,018 12,293 N mue Reseves OduAeas c. 18,419 c. 26,730. Bukit Balai" 136 Bukit Rimbang Balingbaling NDONESA Java Bukit Scbclah Batang Pangean 328 Bukit Tapan Naitmal Paks Baluan (Pan of Keinci Seblat) Dolak Sembdin" BomoTenggeSemeu" Dataan Tinggi Yang (Yang Plateau) Dolok Sibual Bual" Dolok Sipiok* 70 Gunung Gede Pangango 140 Gian Dui* Menpi Mebabu Gunung Sago Malin.ang so Meu Betii* 495 Gunung Salawah Agam Ujung Kulon lnd.apua * N lllute Reseoes ' (Pat of Keinci Scblat) Gunung Halimun 400 Kuala l.angsa* 70 Gunung Kawi!Kelud" 500 LembahAmi* 960 Gunung Lawu 60, Malampah AJahan Panjang 369 Gunung Masigit 90 Maninjau (Noth and South)" 221 Gunung Muia* 120 Sebeida* 340 Gunung Raung 600 Siak Kecil Gunung Sumbing 100 ~ Sibeu 1Taitai Balti" (c:xt) Gunung Tilu 80 Sibolga 201 Gunung Unggaan 55 Singkil Baat 650 Kawah Kamojang 75 Tanjung Datuk* 288 Nusa Baung 61 Game Rescves Nusa Kambangan Peluasan 221 Ai Sawan 1,400 Pegunungan Pembaisan* 130 Bentayan* 193 Segaa Anakan* 153 Bebak" 1,900 Tanjung Sedai 82 Bukit Batu Teluk Lcnggasana* Bukit Gedang Seblat" Waduk Gedeljati Gede los (Pan of Keinci Seblat) 488 Game Reseves Bukit Kayu Embun 1,060 Banyuwangi Selatan (Blambangan)" 620 Dangku* 291 Cikepuh" 81 Dolok Suungan 238 Gunung Sawai 54 ~ Gumai Pascmah" 459 Ci.kamuang 55 Kaang Gading & l.angkat Timu 158 Gunung Liman Wilis 450 Laut" Gunung Peahu" 250 Keumutan 1,200 Kaimunjawa 1,100 ~ fll Lingga Pulau Nias l!!ll/v" 480 Rawas Ulu Lakitan 2,134 Hunting Re~s Sumatea Selatan" 3,568 Gunung Pangasaman 340 Way Kambas* 1,300 Masigit Kaeunbi 124 H unzing Reseoes Receation Paks Benakat 300 Gunung Ciemai 120 1saq* 800 Padang Lawas 687 Sub totals 3,717 4,933 Senidang Rukit Kabu* 153 Othe A ta.< 1.7::!0 90:' ~

50 lndonesla NDONESA Lesse Sunda slands M.uaa Kayan 800 Muaa Kcndawangan 1,500 Nalonal Paks Muaa Scbuku'" 1,100 ~ Bali Baat 777 Muaa Uya 250 Komodo sland 407 Pamukan* 100 N aue Reseves Pantai Samainda 950 Gunuog Ambulombo* 50 Paaawcn l!ll* 62 Gunung Diauto {East Timo) SO Suogai K.ayan Sungai.Mcntaang 16,000 Gunung.Muna (Ala s.) 150 Taniung Dewa Ba.n 163 Gunung Olct Sangcngcs (Sumbawa s.) 350 Tanjung Pcnghujan 400 Rucng (Floes s.) 300 Ulu K.ayan* 8,000 Ulu Scmbakung* 5,000 Gl11nL Reuws Danau a LaloaPul.au Yaco (East Timo) 250 Gl11nL Reuws Gunung Talam.ailu (East Timo) 200 Danau Sintaun* 800 Gunung Wanggameti (Sumba s.)* 60 Gunung Penisen!Gunung Niut* 1,800 Hutan Dompu Complex (Sumbawa s.) 100 Kelompok Hutan Kahayan* 1,500 Loe (East Timo)* 102 Pleihai M.aupua * 364 Pul.au Mayo (Sumbawa s.)* 188 Pleihai Tanah Laut 3SO Pulau Panjang 100 Sungai Mahakam Danau Scmayam Pulau Sangiang (Sumbawa s.) 160 Kutai (PelWlSan)* 2,000 Rinjani (Lombok s.)* 410 Pocecwi Fueu Sungai Oee (East Timo) 300 Bukit Peai* 1,000 Tamboa Uta2 (Sumbawa s.)* 800 Bukit Rongga* 1,100 Tanjung Kcita Mese SO Gunung Asmansang* 280 Tanjung Rukuwau 60 Gunung Tunggal* 508 Timola (East Timo) so H Dlling Reseves Sub tol4ls 29,144 42,000 Dataan Bena* 114 Othe Aeas c. 21,008 c. 28,353 Tamboka Sdatan (Sumbawa s.) 300 NDONESA Sulawesi Poucud F uws Egonliwuli (East Floes)* 149 National Paks Gunung Mutis {West Timo)* 100 DumogaBone* 3,000 Gunung Timau {West Timo) SO Loe Lindu* 2,310 HadekewaLabelakang (East Floes) 125 Manupeu (Sumba s.)* NatuTe RtsDUS 120 Selah Legium Complex (Sumbawa s.)" 500 Bulusaaung" 57 Gunung Ambang 86 Receation Paks Gunung Soputan 80 Danau Sana 55 Kelompok Hutan Buol Tolitoli* 5,000 Lanikomiko* so Sub totals 3,027 3,027 LasoloSampaa* 450 Moowali" OtkAeas c. 2,925 c. 845 Pegunungan Pcuhumpenai" 900 NDONESA Kalimantan TangkokoDua Saudaa* 89 National Paks GameReuws Kutai* 2,000 Buton Utaa* 820 Tanjung Puting* 3,550 Danau Tempe 94 Gunung ManemboNembo* 65 Natue Resezxs Lanbu Sango* 200 Apa Besa* 900 Manbuliling* 100 Apu Kayan* 1,000 Manujaffapalang 125 Bukit Baka* 70S Maisa Complex* 940 Bukit!Uya* 1,100 Pegunungan Moowali/Pclantak* 5,000 Gunung Bemuang dan Kaimun* Pegunungan Palu dan Sckitamya 6,000 Gunung Bcatus 1,300 Polewai (Tenggaa)* 80 Gunung Beau* Rangkong 590 Gunung Lumut* 300!Uwa Opa* 1,500 Gunung Palung* 300 Tanjung Batikolo* 55 Hutan Kapu Sangkuilang* 2,000 Tanjung Peopa* 380 Kaimata* Long Ban gun" 3,500 Huning Reseves Meaus Hu1u Baabai* 2,000 Gunung Waunohai* 500 Muaa Kaman Sedulang* 625 Rom pi* J<i()

51 ~., R~cwztimz Paks Danau AUtado/Mahalano 300 Danau Towuti 650 Poucud F aas Gunung Kelabat* 57 Gunung Lompobatang* 200 Gunung Sojol* 70 Pegunungan Latimojong 580 TamposoSinansajang 150 Sub zotjlls 12,458 20,429 Othe Aeas c. 11,110 c. 19,097 NDONESA Moluccas Natimud Paks Manusda Wai Nua!Wai Mual" 1,890 Nalll~ Reseves AkeTajawi* Au T engga.~* 800 Gunung A.m2u* 450 Gunung Sahuai* 300 Gunung Sibela* 400 K2i Besa* 370 Pulau Nuswota* 75 Pulau Obi* 450 Sakeu* 1,04{) Taliabu* 700 Waya Bula* 600 Yamdena* 600 Gamt Reseves Gunung Gamkonoa* 320 Gunung Kelapat Muda* 1,450 Lolobau" 1,890 Pulau Baun* 130 Pulau Koboo 1,700 Wayabula* 450 Sub zoals 2,095 12,720 OthnA~s 110 8,885 (Sauut: UCN, 1990 and WCMC in Jiu.) Aea with moist foest witlun its boun<by. (ext) ~ extension NDONESA ian jaya NDONESA N aimwl Paks Gunung Loentz* 1,675 MambeamoPegunungan Foja 14,425 Nawu Reseves Gunung WaguaKote* SO KumbeMc:auke* 1,268 Loentz" 21,500 Pegunungan Afak* 450 Pegunungan Cyclops* 225 Pegunungan Fak Fak* 510 Pegunungan KU12wa* 1,180 Pegunungan Taiiilu Selatan 2,479 Pegunungan Tamau Utaa* 2,657 Pegunung2D Wandamen Wondiwoi* 795 Pegunungan Weyland Pulau Batanta Baat* 100 Pulau Biak Utaa* 110 Pulau Misool* 840 Pulau Salawati U taa 570 Pulau Supeioi* 420 Pulau Waigeo Baat* 1,530 Pulau Yapcn T cngah* 590 Sungai Kais* 1,220 Tcluk Binuni 4,500 Gamt Reseves Pegunung2D Jayawijaya 8,000 Pu.lau Dolok* 6,000 Dauu Bian* 500 Sungai Roufbe* 819 Tcluk Cendc:awasih* 825 Wasu* 3,040 Recuuitm Paks Beiot 124 Klamono* 100 Sub zolills 42,925 35,907 OthtAuas 3,102 1,338 GRAND TOTALS c. 198,060 c. 218,459 ~ i Refeences Bugess, P. F. (1988) Natual Fa~st Managmunt fa Sustainable Timba Poduction in tlu Asia/Pacific ugimt. Repon to TTO. 97 pp. Unpublished. Colla, N. J. and Andew, P. (1988) Bids lo U' 1 ach. The CBP wold checklist of theatened bids. Ttchnical Publication No.8. ntenational Council fo Bid Pesevation, Cambidge, UK. 303 pp. Collins, N. M. and Mois, M.G. (1985) Th~U7Wl Swallowtail Buuefi~s of tlu Wold. Tlu UCN R~d Daa Book. UCN, Cambidge, UK, and Gland, Switzeland. vii pp. + 8 pis. Depanamen Kehutanan (1985) Daft Longam Faesey Plan. jakana, ndonesia. FAO (1982) NationalConseDationPlanfo ndonesia. 8 vols. FAO, Bogo, ndonesia. (]ntoduction; 2Sumata; 3java and Bali; 4Lesse Sundas; SKalimantan; 6Su1awesi; 7Maluku and i2n:!\geneal topics.) FAO (1987) Special Study on Foest Managmtent, Affa~stJltion and Utili=ion of Fots/ Resouces in Liu D~l.opmmi R~gunu. Asia Pacifu: Region. Assessmmt of Foa! Resouces in Six COU111Ties. FAO, Bangkok, Thailand. 104 pp. FAO (1988)An lnuim RqKm on tlusiiluof Foest R~sauces in Liu D.;eloping Counci~s. FAO, Rome, taly. 18 pp + 15 tables. FAO (1990) FAO Y~book of Foat Poducts FAO Foesty Seies No. 13. FAO Statistics Seies No. 90. FAO, Rome. FAOUNEP (1981) Topical Fotst Rtsauces Assessm.nl Poju. Vol 3 of 3 vols. FAO, Rome, taly. 475 pp. Gillis, M. (1988) ndonesia: Public Policies, Resouce Management, and the Topical Foest. n: Public Policies and tlu M isus~ of Fa~sl Resouces. Repeno, R. and Gillis, M. (eds). Wold Resouces lnstiue/cambid!!e Univesiv Pess. UK. 432 pp.

52 NDONESA Hanson, A. J. and Koesoebiono (1977) Sading Coastal S1.1XZmplmuis ins um.ata: A Caustudy fa nugated Resouce Man.1ganau. Reseach epot No.4. Cente fo Natual Resouce Management and Envionmental Studies. Boga Agicuhual Univesity, lndonesta. UCN (1983) Global Scaus of Mangove Eosysums. Commission on Ecology Papas No. 3. UCN, Gland, Switzeland. 88 pp. UCN (1986) Platus in Danga. Wluu do~ Know? UCN, Gland, Switzeland, and Cambidge, UK. 461 pp. UCN (1988) 1988/UCN Red List oftheauned Animals. UCN, Gland, Switzeland, and Cambidge, UK. S4 pp. UCN (1990) 1989 Uniled Nations List of Ntuional Paks and Poucud Aeas. UCN, Gland, and Cambidge, UK. UCNUNEP (1986) Rt'Vinv of lu Poucud Aeas System in tlu!~malayan R~. MacKinnon, J. and Mackinnon, K., con suh:ants. JUCN, Gland, Switzeland, and Cambidge, UK. 284 pp. + maps section. Koesoebiono, Collie, W. L. and Bubidge, P. R. (1982) ndonesia: esouce use and management in the coastal zone. n: Soysa ~ al. (cds) Man, Ltnui and Sea (1982), Bangkok. pp Laumonie, Y., Punadjaja and Setiabudhi (1986) Sumata (Map in 3 sheets). lnstitut de a Cate lntenationale du Tapis VegcW! SEAMEOBOlROP. MacKinnon, J. (1988) FWd Guide o the Bids of]a:ja and Bali. Gadjah M.ada Univesity Pess, Yogyakau. 390 pp. Malinge:au, J. P., Stephens, G. and Fellows, L. (1985) Remote Sensing of Foest FJies: Kalimantan and Noth Boneo in Amhio 14: Myes, N. (1989) Defoestation Rates in Topical Foests and thei Climtmc Jmpliauions. Fiends of the Eath, London, UK. 116 pp. Petocz, R. G. and Raspado, G. (1984) Cmuemui.an and DevelDpmnu in ian Jaya: a Staugy fo Raio.al Resouces Utilisation. WWFUCN Repot. PHPA, Boga, ndonesia. Petocz, R. G. (1985) ian Jaya, the othe ide of New Guinea: Biological Resouus and Ratiozak fo a Compehensive Poucud Aea Design. Pape pesented at the Thid South Pacific National Paks and Reseves Confeence and Ministeial Meeting. Apia, Westen Samoa, 24 June3 July, pp +maps. Repetto, R. ( 1988) Tlu F aest fa the Tees? Guvemmnu Policies and tlu Misuse of Foest Resouces. Wold Resouces nstitute, Washington, DC, USA. RePPPoT (1990) Naional Oveview of tlu Regiocal Phyical Planning Pogamme fa Tansmigation. Oveseas Development NauaJ Resouces nstitute (ODNR), Chatham, UK. Salm, R. V. and Halim, M. (1984) Maine and Coastal Poucud Aeas in lndonesiil. UCNWWF Repot. WWF ndonesia Pogamme, Boga, ndonesia. Santiapillai, C. (1986) The Siatus and Conse aiio.n of he Clouded Leopad (Neofclis nebulosa diadi) in Sumaa. Repot to \\:'\\ 7 F and UCN. 13 pp. Silvius,.M ]., Steeman, A. P. J. M Beczy, E. T., Djuhasa, E. and Taufik, A. W. (1987) The /nddnls111n Wetwnd lnvnuoy. 2 vols. PHPA, AWB and EDWN, Boga, ndonesia. Soemodih.adjo, S. (1984) mpact of human activities on mangove ecosystems in ndonesia: An oveview.n: Poceedings ofclu MAB COMAR Regiocal Semina, Novembe 1316, 1984, Tokyo, Japan, pp Soemodih.adjo, S. (1987) ndonesia. n: Umali R., Zamoa, P. M., Gotoea, R. R., Jaa, R. R. and Camacho, A. S. Mangoves of Asio and the Pacific. Ministy of National Resouces, Manila. pp Soegiato, A. and Polunin, N. (1982) Tlu Maine Envicmmnu in ndonesia. Repot fothe Govenment of the Republic oflndonesia sponsoed by UCN and WWF. Univesity of Cambidge: De patment of Zoology, UK. White, C. M. N. and Buce, M.D. (1986) The Bids ofwallaua (Sul.awai, The Moluccas and Lesse Sunda slands, ndonesia). Bitish Onithologists' Union, London, UK. 524 pp. Whitten, A. j. (1987) ndonesia's tansmigation pogam and is ole in the loss of topical ain foests. Consevation BiDlogy 1: Whitten, A. j., Damanik, S. J., Anwa, J. and Hisyam, N. (1984) The Eology of Sumata. Gadjah M.acb Univesity Pess, Yogyakata, ndonesia. Whitten, A. 1., Muslimin Mustafa and Hendeson, G. S. (l987a) Tlu Eology ofsulawei. Gadjah Mada Univesity Pess, Yogyakana, ndonesia. m pp. Whitten, A. J., Bishop, K. D., Nash, S. V. and Clayton, L. (l987b) One o moe extinctions fom Sulawesi, ndonesia? Consevation Biowgy 1: 428. Whitmoe, T. C. (l984a) A vegetation map of M.alesia at scale 1:5 million.joumal of Biogeogaphy 11: Whitmoe, T. C. (1990) An ntoduction o Topical Rain Foests. Claendon Pess, Oxfod, UK. Authoship Roge Cox in London, Mak Collins at WCMC, with contibutions fom Tony Whinen in Cambidge, Adam Messe in Boga, D. Ketosasto of the Tansmigation Depatment in Jakata, John Makin in Chatham, UK, J. R. D. Wall in jakata, Genevieve Michon of BOlROP in Boga, Russell Betts and Chales Santiapillai of WWF in Jakata, Sinung Rahadjo and Effendy Sumadja of the Foest Potection and Natue Consevation Depatment, Ministy of Foesty in Jakata.

53 ',. 1! Maps Foest cove in ndonesia The Rcgioul Physical Planning Pognmme fo Tansmigmion (RePPPoT) began wok. in 1984 in association with the National Cente fo Coodination of Suveys and M2pping (BAKOSURT ANAL). The pogamme has now co:nplcted a apid econnaissance of ndonesia using c:xisti.ng epou, ai photogaphs and satellite o ada imagey with sdcctivc field checking. Reviews fo each of tbe eight egions have been published with omplete map eovcage at 1:250,000 sak in thee map themes: 1md systems and 1md suiu.biliy, Land use and land su.tus. A total of 693 thematic maps have ba:n pepaed. Ranote sensing imagey fo lddot=i.a used in pepaing the maps included ai photogaphy, Landsats 2, 3, 4 and 5, SPOT, and ada, including SAR and SLAR. Dates, sc:alc:s and a.c:as coveed vaied geatly and full details ac available fom BAKOSURTANAL and RePPPoT's cgioul eviews. The RePPPoT tc:am is now pepaing a N.uional ~of Lmu1 Rnovcd of Jndaa.aitz fo PlysiaU LmuJ Use P~. which will~ the esults fom the eight egions. This Owvinv will include 32 compiled maps at scales of 1:2 million o 1:4 million showing geology, agoclimatic zones, hydological zones, landfoms, soils, land cove, land su.tus, e~vionmc:ntal hazads, population distibution and aeas of potential development. Dau. used in the pepaation of the maps of ndonesia's foc:st cove and potcacd aeas in this atlas wen: zcucously povided by the RcPPPoT tc:am in the fom of hand<:oioued daft maps at :2.5 million scale. The lcgmd included eight fo"cst and eight nonfoest c:alqoics. The foest categoies wee hamoniscd with the scheme used in this atlas in the following w:~y (categoy in backets is RePPPoT title): lowland ain foest (lowland moist foest), inland swamp foest (swamp foest), Wigi'OYe (mangove and othe tidal foests), montmc ain foest (submontane and mootane foest). Rd'PPoT appa to have: ta1= m as the: uppe limit of lowland ain foest, ova most of the egion. Seasoaal (monsoon) foests have ba:n delineated fom data published in Whit moe (1984a) n this atlas, foest logged but left to qcucate eithe with o witbout silvicultual tatmcnt is oot distin&uisbed fom pistine foc:st. Thus, in ndonesia tbe atlas docs not distinguish sepaately the: aeas of =dy logged foest which wee identified by Rd'PPoT. Aeas which RcPPPoT showed as con vcned fom focsay to othe land uses ac of couse dealy identified. Some notes on the oigin and intcpeation of Maps 19.1 to 19.7 ac given below. ld each case the date of oigin of the bulk of the infomation is given in backets (tbcsc: being the publiation dates of RcPPPoT'l Rqional Review1), but W!ce a wide vaiety of sou.ccs make up the whole seies, it is impount to efe to the oigjna1 RcPPPoT egioul cview5 o BAKOSURTANAL itsclf if deu.ilcd infomation is needed. Map 19.1: Sumata (1988) The RePPPoT maps included no dau. fo Singkil Baat o fo the islands of Simeuluc, and Enggano, no fo the Riau and Lingga goups. Whitmoe (1984a) shows some lowlmd ain foest on nothen Simeuluc and cental Singkilbau, but none on Engpno, Riau and lingg;a, which ac believed to be l.agcly defoested. NDONESA Map 19.2: Java and Lesse Sundas ( 1989) The climate becomes inceasingly seasonal fom Java along the Lcssc: Sunda slands. Remaining foests on J:. "3 ac maked as ain foests since: they ac on mounu.in slopes and peaks, but much of the island 1.1."3S pobably oigiully clothed in monsoon foest. Map 19.3: LesseSimlias (1989) No dau. ac available fo the island of Roti. Whitmoe (1984a) indicates.some monsoon foest in the southwest of the island. No data ac: avail:.ble fo the Sa ba lslmds benve:n Tanimba. and uti, no fo the southenmost island in the Tanimba goup. The latte is believed to be defoested, but Baba. and uti have =monsoon foest {Whitmoe, 1984a). Map 19.4: Kalim.anlan (Cmcal, 1985; South, West and Ease, 1987) The main point to note bcc is that lubsuntial :tc2soffocst in the southeast wee killed o degaded by dought and fie in The aea affected is indicated in Figue 19.2, but much is now believed to be egeneating. Thee ae no dau. fo the Ammbas and Bunguan (Natuna) slands in the South China Sea, but Whitmoe (1984a) indicated small :tc2s oflowbnd ain foest in the centes of the main islands. Map 19.5: Sulawesi (1988) The DOW defoested Tabud and Sangihe Wands have been omitted fom this map to enable a lage scale to be used. No data ac available fo the wuthemmost Bangg:ai lslands. Bangpi itsclf is dcfoc:stcd, but Bangkulu and Labobo ac believed to have small patches of lowland ain foest {Whitmoe,!984a). Aopa SW2mp, in the sout.hc:ast ann of Sulawesi, is the best lc.aown aea of pcaawamp foest on the: island, foming pan of a national pak. t has been ovelain onto the RcPPPoT daa. Map 19.6: Moluccas (1989) See the oote on Bangpi lslands above. ln Scam some aeas malccd by RePPPoT as swamp f<lf'cst ac believed to be cultivated 1md and have been maked as web (afte Whitmoe 1984a). The Wand of Baaa is labelled as monsoon foest afte Whitmoe ( 1984a). R=t cpou indicate that the island in fact beas ain foest (T. C. Whitmoe, pesonal communication). Map 19.7: lia.njaya (1986) Monsoon foest indicated in the southeasten come of ian Jay:a by Whitmoe (1984a) is adjudged by RePPPoT to be open savanna woodland and is thcc{oc labelled as nonfoest on this map. The editos ac cspcci.ally gateful to the Diecto Geneal of Settlement Pcpaation,l. Djatiianto Kctosastofo use of dau. fom the RePPPoT poject; to BAKOSURT ANAL fo thei suppon; and to D David Wall, the RePPPoT team leade, and his canogaphes, fo thoi coopeation in poviding daft maps. ~,

54 i~. li "; "'! ": u. /. :J 0 ~~.#~ iq

55 NDONESA Sumata ** Not yet legally gazetted * Not mapped National Paks** 1. Sai san Selatan NP 365, Gunung Leuse NP 792, Keinci Seblat NP , Way Kamba.s NP 130,000 Natue Reseves Aceh Rafflesia ". Sebojadi NR Baingin Sati NR ~ 6. Satang Palupuh NR Batu Gajah NR* Batu Ginuit NR* Bukit Tapan NR 66, Bungamaskikim NR* Cawang /* Despatah!/* 12. Dolak Saut NR Dolak Sibual Bual NR* 5, Dolok Sipiok NR 6, Dolok Tinggi Raya NR Dusun Besa NR* , ndapua NR 221, Jantho NR 8, Kelompok Hutan Bakau Timu Jambi NR 6, ~ 20. Konak NR* Gua Ulu Tiangko NR* Gunung ndapua NR , 168. Kakatau NR 2, Lembah Anai NR Liang Balik NR* Manua NR* 1, Page Gunung // NR* Pulau Bekeh NR Pulau Buung NR Pulau Laut NR Rimbo Panti NR 2, Sibolangit NR Toba Pananj ung NR* Game Reseve~ 30. Bentayan GR* V 19, Bebak GR V 175, Bukit Gedang Seblat GR V 48, Bukit Kayu Embun GR V 106, Danau Pulau Besa/Oanau GR* V 25, Oangku GR V 29, Dolak Suungan GR V Gumai Pasemah GR V 45, Gunung Raya GR V 39, sausau Pasemah GR V 12, Kappi GR V 8, Kaang Gading & Langkat Timu Laut GR V 15, Keumutan GR V 120, Kluet GR V 23, Padang Sugihan GR V 75,

56 3. Rawas Ulu Lakitan GR 2. Sekundu and Langkat GR 1. Sumatea Selatan GR 42. Taitai Batti GR 43. way Kambas GR V V V V V 213, , ,800 56, , l""toai ne Paks ~4. Pulau Weh MP* Foest Pak~ 45. D. Mach. Hatta Gand FoP* V v 2, , Hunting Reseve~ 46. Benakat HR 47. Lingga saq HR 48. Nanuua HR 49. Semidang Bukit Kabu HR 50. Subanjeiji HR V V V V V ,000 10,000 15,300 65, Potected Foest~ 3. Bajang Ai Tausan PFo 52. Banda Bau PFo 3. Batang Maangin Baat/Menjuta Hulu PFo V V V 3. Batang Maangin Timu PFo V 30. Bentayan PFo V 53. Bukit Balaiejang PFo V 54. Bukit Balal PFo V 55. Bukit Dingin/Gunung Dempo PFo V 56. Bukit Hitam/Sanggul/Dingin PFo V 57. Bukit Kaba PFo* V 58. Bukit Mancung dan Sei Gemuuh PFo V 59. Bukit Nantiogan Hulu/Nanti Komeung Hulu PFo V 60. Bukit Raja Mandaa/Kau (Noth) PFo V 3. Bukit Reges/Hulu Sulup PFo V 61. Bukit Sebelah & Batang Pangean PFo* V 62. Dolok Sembelin PFo V 63. M Gunung Betung PFo Gunung Meapi PFo Gunung Patah/Bepagut/Muaa Duakisim PFo Gunung Sago/Malintang/Kaas PFo Gunung Singgalang PFo Gunung Sumbing/Masuai PFo Guah Sebolangit PFo* Hulu Bintuanan Complex PFo* Hutan Sinlah PFo* Kambang/Batanghai /Bayang Kui Utaa/Bukit Punggu PFo* Langsa Kemuning PFo Lembah Anai (Extension) PFo* Lembah Haau PFo Maninjau (Noth and South) PFo Meangin Baat dan Nunjuta Ulu PFo* Paaduan Gistana & Suoundings PFo Punguk Bingin PFo Sangi Ulu /Satang Tebo/Batang Tabi PFo Tanggamus PFo Tangkitebak/Kota Agung Utaa/Way Waya PFo V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V ,600 19,300 16,700 13,583 38,050 69,395 13,490 1, ,180 41, ,910 22,244 9,670 91,655 5,486 9, ,000 9,297 76,745 81, ,000 34,861 2,000 96,002 23,467 22,106 64,600 70,000 2,400 61,200 15, ,

57 ~ Receation Pak$ 81. Lau DebukOebuk RP 82. Lembah Haau RP* 83. Mega Mendung RP 84. Pulau Weh RP* 85. Rimbo Panti RP 86. Sibolangit RP Biosphee Reseves 2. Gunung Leuse National Pak 42. Sibeut (Taitai Batti) Game Reseve v v v v v v X X , , , Poposed National Paks 31. Bebak NP 87. Siak Oua NP 42. Sibeut NP (100,000) (100,000) (56,000).. Poposed Natue Reseve~ 88. Alu Melidi NR 89. Aneuk Laut NR 51. Bajang Ai Tausan (Utaa) NR* 52. Banda Bau Sibayak NR* 90. Bukit Balai NR* 91. Bukit Gabah NR* 92. Bukit Jambul NR* 58. Bukit Mancung /Sci Gemuuh NR* 93. Bukit Nanti Komeing Ulu* 94. Bukit Rancing NR* 95. Bukit Rimbang/Balingbaling NR 96. Bukit Sabaung Komeing NR* 61. Bukit Sebelah & Satang Pangean NR 97. Danau Bawah dan Pulau Besa NR 3. Oanau Gunung Tujuh NR 62. Dolok Sembelin NR 98. Giam Dui NR 99. Gunung Satan NR* 100. Gunung Dempo Utaa dan Selatan NR* 101. Gunung Duen NR* 102. Gunung Kubing ~R* 103. Gunung Manumbing NR* 104. Gunung Maas NR* 105. Gunung Paimisan NR* 106. Gunung Raja Basa NR* 107. Gunung Ratah NR* 66. Gunung Sago/Malintang NR 108. Gunung Salawah Agam NR* 109. Gunung Singgalang NR 110. Gunung Sulasih Talang NR* 111. Gunung T~yam NR* 112. Kalianda NR* 3. Kambang/Batanghai / Bayang NR 113. Kompleks Hutan Lunang NR 114. Kuala Jambu Aye/Ai NR 115. Kuala Langsa NR 72. Langsa Kemuning NR 116. Laut Tapus NR* 73. Lembah Anai (Extension) NR (250) (1,000) ( ) (250) (13,585) (4,200) (2,151) (1,500) (22,483) (8,640) (136,000) (1,523) (32,803) (25,000) (6,200) (33,910) (40,000) (3,430) (3,750) (14' 900) (3,480) (1,150) (12,950) (3,095) (5,000) (13,583) (5,486) (6,000) (9,658) (6,150) (3,350) (1,000) (100,000) (17,700) (3,000) (7,000) (1,000) (8,000) (96,002)

58 117. Malampah Alahan Panjang NR 75. Maninjau (Noth and South) NR 118. Mee Kakau NR* 42. Muaa Sibeut NR 119. Muaa Sungai Guntung NR 120. Natuna Besa NR 121. Pantai Saluma NR* 122. Peaian Pulau Weh & P. Beas NR 123. Pulau Baut dan Pulau Teang NR* 124. Pulau Bengkau NR 125. Pulau Jemu NR* 78. Punguk Bingin* 126. Rantau Pala Gajah NR 127. Rebang NR 128. Sebeida NR 129. Sei Papat Simandulang NR 130. Siak Kecil NR 131. Sibolga NR 132. Singkati Kehidupan NR 133. Singkil Baat NR 134. Tanjung Datuk NR 135. Pantai Kueng Raya MR* 136. Pulau Beuh MR* (36,919) (22,106) (10,950) (12,000) (26,000) (6,000) {400) (5.400) (1,600) (13,500) (120,000) (2.900) (35,000) (20,100) (5,000) (65,000) (28,800) Poposed Game Reseve 137. Ai Sawan GR 138. Bakau Muaa Kampa GR 139. Bakau Selat Oumai GR 140. Bukit Baka (Sumata) GR 141. Bukit Batu GR 142. Bukit Besa GR 143. Danau Belat/Besa Sekap GR 144. Danau Tanjung Padang GR 145. Keumutan Lama GR 71. Kui Utaa/Bukit Punggu GR* 146. Meangin dan Menjuto Ulu GR* 147. Peluasan Leuse (Bengkong) GR* 148. Pulau Alang Besa/ Sinebu GR 149. Pulau Bulan GR 150. Pulau Nias ///V GR 151. Pulau Selat Oumai 152. Pulau Simeulue GR 3. Sangi Ulu /Satang Tebo/Batang Tahi GR 3. Sangi Ulu GR 170. Saang Baung GR 171. Sembilang GR 42. Sibeut (Peluasan)GR* ( ) (70,000) (60,000) (18,000) (200,000) (10,000) (2,500) (55,000) (34,861) (80,815) (70,320) (15,000) (12,000) (47,949) (60,000) (26,750) (189,050) (361,200) (180,000) ( ) Poposed Hunting Reseve 153. Padang Lawas HR 154. Peanap HR 155. Pulau Bulan HR* Poposed Potection Foest 3. Satang Bunge PFo 3. Bukit Gedang Seblat (Southen 110. Gunung Sulasih Talang PFo* 157. Selawah Agam PFo* extension) PFo (68,700) (120,000) (12,000) (80,000) ( 40,000110) (6,150) (9,110) 1932

59 ~ Poeosed Receation Pak 158. Ai Kelebat/Danau Tees RP* 57. Bukit l<aba RP* 159. Gandi Muaa Takus RP 160. stana Sultan Siak RP 161. Komplek Hutan Way Cuup RP*!62. Pulau Pa~i Pa.jang RP 163. Pulau Penyengat RP 164. Pulau Tikus dan peaiannya Poeosed Cate9o~ Unknown 165. Lunang 166. Muaa Dua Kisam* 167. Sinlah* (3,230) (25.000) (5) (5) (20) (10) (10) RP* {300) (17.500) (91, 665) (81.000)..

60 ANNEX 1 Title (English title): Basic Foesty Act Definitions of potected aea designations, as legislated, togethe with authoities esponsible fo thei administation Date: 1967 Bief desciption: Povides fo potection, management and exploitation of foest lands Administative authoity: Ministy of Foesty Designations: Hutan Poduksi (Poduction foest) Foests which, because of thei natual condition o thei capacity, can give benefits in the fom of timbe and othe foest poducts. The emoval of foest poducts is egulated in such a way that it can be continued pemanently. Hutan Lindung (Potection foest) Foests whose natual condition is such that they exet a good influence upon soil, the suounding envionment and wate contol, and so must be maintained and potected. Among foests classified as potective foest, thee ae some fom which, because of thei natual condition, poducts can still be emoved within cetain limits, without detacting fom/diminishing thei potection. NATURE SANCTUARY Caga Alam (Natue eseve) No management o human intefeence is pemitted that changes the chaacte of soil, floa o fauna in any way o affects its pistine condition. Access is fo scientific puposes only and is subject to witten pemission of the Diectoate of Foest Potection and Natue Consevation (PHPA) {MacKinnon, 1982). Suaka Magasatwa (Game eseve) No activities ae pemitted that damage the floa, fauna o landscape o that could detact fom the value of the eseve. Povision is made, howeve, fo hunting in such an aea, subject to witten pemission of the Ministe of Foesty, and also fo development of foest industies subject to a pemit issued by the povincial goveno fo collection of foest poduce, gazing of livestock and fishing (FAO, 1977; MacKinnon, 1982; Scott, 1989). TOURST FOREST Taman Buu (Hunting pak) Managed specifically fo hunting and fishing (MacKinnon, 1982). Taman Wisata (Receation pak) Maintained fo outdoo eceation puposes (MacKinnon, 1982). Title (English title): Consevation of Living Resouces and thei Ecosystems Act Date: August 1990

61 Bief desciption: Concened with the maintenance of biodivesity and ecosystem function in the context of the sustainable utilisation of living natual esouces. authoity: Diectoate Geneal of Foest Potection and Natue Consevation (Diecto of Natue Consevation) Ad~inistative Designations: NATURE SANCTUARY A specific teestial o aquatic aea having potectio~ as its main function to peseve biodivesity of plants and animals, as well as thei ecosystems which also act as life suppot systems. Caga Alam (Natue eseve) A natue sanctuay which, because of its chaacteistic plants, animals and/o ecosystems, must be potected and allowed to develop natually. Activities pemitted ae eseach and the development of science, education and othe activities potecting beeding stock. Management shall be by the govenment in an effot to peseve the species divesity of plants and animals and thei ecosystems. Suaka Magasatwa (Game eseve) A natue sanctuay having high species divesity and/o unique animal species, in which the habitat may be managed, in ode to assue the continued existence of these species. Management shall be implemented by the govenment in an effot to peseve the divesity of plant and animal species and thei ecosystems. BOSPHERE RESERVE An aea of unique and/o degaded ecosystems, which need to be potected and conseved fo thei eseach and education value. Within the famewok of intenational consevation and fo those activities defined in Aticle 17, "sanctuay eseves" and othe specified aeas can be established as biosphee eseves. KAWASAN PELESTARAN ALAM (NATURE CONSERVATON AREA) A specific teestial o aquatic aea whee the main functions ae to potect life suppot systems, to peseve divesity of plant and animal species, as well as to conseve living natual esouces and thei ecosystems fo sustainable utilisation Taman Nasional {National pak) A natue consevation aea which possesses natual ecosystems. and which is managed though a zoning system fo eseach, science, education, suppoting cultivation, eceation and touism puposes Taman Hutan Agung (Gand foest pak) A natue consevation aea ceated to povide a collection of indigenous and/o intoduced plants and animals fo eseach, science, education, suppot cultivation, cultue, eceation and touism puposes Taman Wisata Alam (Natue eceation pak) A natue consevation aea mainly intended fo eceation and touism puposes

62 . Q} "0 0 c Q} o c L. 0 CD c 0 (/) Q) ::J c 0 ::l (/) Q}. "0 Cl> L "0 c c 0 CD Q_ Q) ::l Cl> 0 0. () c Ol E ~ Cl> CJ) Q). (/) Ol ~ c c..ij 0 Ol ::l ::l ~ 0 > < CD.J.J ~ z a_ (/') (/') 3: ~~~[]~ ~ DDf:j m < ~ 4 E 0 0 u, c.:y c "' c :2 >..D a. 0 ::2 11

63 GUNUNG LEUSER NATONAL PARK Aea: 586,500 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Suaka Magasatwa/Taman Nasional ZB No. 122/AGR ZB No. 317/ SK Mentan 697/Kpts/Um/12/1976 Location: Kabupatens Aceh Selatan, Aceh Tenggaa, Aceh Timu ' Desciption: Supeb undistubed foests fom sea level to bae mountain peaks with wide ange of habitat types on volcanic and limestones in wet and moist agiclimatic egions. The eseve contains the widest known ange of animals and plants in Sumata including many ae species such as elephants, hinoceos, oangutan, tiges, seow, etc. The eseve is one of the most impotant in Southeast Asia with geat potential fo natue touism, eseach, genetic esouces consevation, species consevation and watecatchment potection. Reasons fo Potection: Potection of floa and fauna Hydological potection foests Natue touism and eseach Theats: Logging pessues on adjacent lowland foests Agicultual encoachment and gowing enclaves Hunting and collection of attan Recommendations: Retain as Taman boundaies as pe Management Plan Bengkong extension. Nasional. and continue Revise to ty westen to add Refeences: van Stien, N.J Daft Poposed Gunung Leuse National Pak Management Plan 1978/ /83. lucn/wwf Repot of Poject Hoogewef, A Veslag van een Reis doo de Gajoe en Alas Landen. PPA Lapoan Suvey nventaisasi Suaka Alam Kluet. PB Telaah Kemungkinan Pengembangan dan Pembinasn Taman Nasional Gunung Leuse Selama Pelita. Bogo. PB Peliminay Management Plan Taman Nasional Leuse..

64 GUNUNG LEUSER NATONAL PARK Table 1. Amount of potected and nonpotected land unde the gid. Amount of Foest Amount of Non (Km2) foest HSA km km 2 Othe HSA 3. 6 km 2 0 km 2 Adjacent HL km km 2 Othe HL 3.4 km km 2 Nonpotected km km 2. Table 2. Vegetation cove within potected aeas (HSA/HL). A. HSA Vegetation type Total aeas Total Aea Montane km 2 Submontane km 2 Lowland km 2 Swamp km 2 Bush km 2 Agicultue km 2 Logged km 2 _ Vegetation type Aea (km 2 ) Submontane km 2 Lowland km 2 Nonfoest km 2 B. HL

65 ,. By: Michael Giffiths RHNO POACHNG N THE UPPER MAMAS VALLEY : OF GUNUNG LEUSER NATONAL PARK,.i This epot is based lagely on the expeiences and obsevations of the wite, who has spent almost one and a half yeas photogaphing fo the m~f ndonesia Pogamme in the Uppe Mamas aea. Additional infomation was obtained fom discussions with assistants of Nico van Stein, who woked on a hino eseach poject in the valley fom 1975 though These assistants have subsequently made tips to the aea, and thei obsevations on poaching ae incopoated hee. Use also has been made of van Stein s monogaph on "The Rhinos of Gunung Leuse National Pak". Rhino poaching in the uppe Mamas began almost 40 yeas ago, so we eally have no indication of what the oiginal population in the aea might have been. Duing the five yeas that van Stein was caying out his eseach in the uppe Mamas, hino poaching was effectively eliminated. n the ealy 1980s, howeve, hino poaching once again became ampant. nitially, poaching activities wee concentated aound the salt spings in the southen headwates, but as the hinos thee wee hunted out, the poaches began moving downsteam and tapping in aeas aound othe salt licks. ntemittent poaching continued in the southen headwates, howeve, paticulaly by amed huntes. By the late 1980s, the hino populations in the uppe egions of the uppe Mamas had been decimated, falling fom an estimated twelve animals to about five. At the same time, poaches began using a nothe entance oute into the Uppe Mamas valley, and fo at least two yeas they wee able to tap hinos thee without inteuption. Duing that peiod, they effectively wiped out the best hino population in the valley. Aound the beginning of 1990, the poaches moved upsteam and to the west, and began to tap the last known unmolested goup of hinos in the Mamas. Fou of thei taps wee discoveed and tiggeed by the autho's paty, but at least one hino was killed a female with a calf. n addition to tapping, seveal goups of amed huntes have enteed the valley with the intention of killing hinos. At least thee paties of amed huntes enteed the valley in When van Stein did his studies, thee wee an estimated 39 hinos in the Uppe Mamas. Today, thee ae only 13 at most. This is significant because it means the chances of the population building again ae becoming inceasingly emote. f the pesent ate of poaching goes unchecked, then we can expect to lose at

66 least anothe thee hinos by the end of 1991 almost 25 pecent of the emaining population. Conclusion Vey few people deive a living fom hunting hinos {pehaps six men in the west of the Alas). Theefoe, it is not a significant social poblem, but athe an ecological one. Amed huntes ae not consideed to be dependent on hinos fo making thei living. n fact, they may epesent a class athe bette off than most. f it is desied to stop hino poaching, it is also necessay to catch the pepetatos of these acts. These man ae a stoehouse of infomation, and if poaching is meely suspected though a seies of fea campaigns, then in time the poaches will etun and cay on with thei business. To be caught, thee must be poof of thei activities, and pehaps hee a peson's illegal pesence in the valley would be poof enough, since thee appeas to be no othe souce of wealth (such as otan, bids nests, o fish) othe than hinos that might attact people to the valley. Caeful monitoing of who entes and leaves the valley would ultimately bing dividends, but ideally evidence of man actively hunting in the valley would be moe convincing. Finally, if all the pawangs (maste huntes) ae known and thei activities stopped, then in time the knowledge they have gained of both the land and the techniques of tapping will be lost. With no tained appentices to cay on, this vicious cycle of death and ultimately extinction could be boken.

67 1 =~~=~~ ~=: ' 1 1 TAMAN NASONAL KERNC SEBLAT Vegetation cove ~, a 1 4 Agicultue ~ Bush ~ Vegetation ~~ D HSA Lowland D Montane ~ D Nonfoest T"Z Submontane Swamp Wate Aeas outside of the main HSAs ae fom a WCMC database which does not sepaate ~ between Bush and Agicultue ~ o between Montone and Submontane foest (thus the Non foest catogoy incldes both Bush and Agicultue) Map by Minnesota Zoo/COSG km ] '.

68 . KERNCSEBLAT NATURE RESERVE (27) Location: 1 30'2'40'S, 101' '00'10' 'SO'E; pat of the Bukit Baisan mountain chain. Sumata Baat, Jambi, Bengkulu and Sumata Selatan Povinces, Sumata. Aea: Aea of wetlands unknown; Natue Reseve 1,484,600 ha. Altitude: 503,000m (including the highest peak in Sumata). Biogeogaphical Povince: Wetland type: 11, 12, 14 & 22. Desciption and site: The KeinciSeblat Natue Reseve is situated in the Bukit Baisan mountain ange between Bengkulu and Padang. t incopoates the undistubed foests in the main wate catchment aeas fo the extensive settled egion of southen Sumata. The eseve includes some of the most outstanding sceney in Sumata, including a 3,000m high volcano (ndapua), numeous ives, many lakes and extensive montane and lowland foests. t is chaacteized by altenating high massifs and alluvial plains, poducing steep slopes with boad alluvial fans at thei base. Many lage ives, including the Batang, Musi and Teba, have thei headwates in this egion. The lagest lake in the eseve is Keinci Lake. This lies in a flatbottomed valley at an elevation of 783m; it is about 9.5 km long by 6 km wide, and 110m deep. The lake lies within the Keinci Enclave, a cultivated aea of 140,000 ha inside the eseve. Gunung Tujuh Lake, a cate lake at 1,996m elevation, is one of the last undistubed mountain lakes in Sumata. t is appoximately 1,000 ha in aea and 840m deep. Othe lakes include Danau Lamkat, Danau Sati, Danau Ladeh Panjang, Danau Dua, Danau Kecil, Danau Pauh and Danau Dipatjampat. Danau Bentu (Sangi Hulu), a high altitude foested bog, is of consideable botanical inteest. Climatic conditions: Humid topical to tempeate climate, depending on altitude. n the westen pat of the eseve, the ainfall eaches a peak in Apil and again in Novembe. The aveage tempeatue in the lowlands is 28 C. Pinciple vegetation: The main vegetation types within the eseve ae lowland ain foest, submontane ain foest, montane ain foest, cloud foest, iveine foest, swamp foest and highland bog foest. Land tenue: The site is state owned (PHPA); suounding aeas ae owned by the local people and the ndonesian Govenment. Consevation measues potection since 1929, (Caga Alam) in taken: The site has been affoded some and was designated as a Natue Reseve Consevation measues poposed: A poposal has been made to upgade the eseve to the status of National Pak; (Taman Nasional). A buffe zone management plan will be developed fo the Keinci Enclave. Land use: Natue eseve; ice is cul ti va ted in the Keinci Enclave. Thee ae numeous small settlements aound the peimete of the eseve.

69 Distubances and theats: The most seious theat is continuing expansion of the Keinci Enclave, as agicultual land encoaches futhe and futhe into the foest. Thee ae seven othe settlements with a total population of ove 1,100 people within the aea of the poposed National Pak. Logging is a poblem in the west coast lowlands, and the pesent levels of wadening and law enfocement ae inadequate. The intoduced aquatic weed Eichhonia cassipes has become a pest in Keinci Lake. Economic and social values: The eseve is of consideable geological, botanical and zoological inteest and has consideable potential fo outdoo eceation and touism. t is extemely impotant fo wateshed potection, and constitutes an impotant gene pool, paticulaly fo commecial timbe species and attans. Fauna: No infomation is available on the fishes. The eseve suppots an extemely ich avifauna, including six species of kingfishes (Alcedinidac), five species of honbills (Buceotidae), and seveal vey ae species such as Salvadoi 1 s Pheasant Lophua inonata and the scops owl Otus stesemanni (known fom only one specimen collected in this aea). The eseve is, howeve, of only limited impotance fo watefowl; species known to occu include Egetta intemedia, Gallinula chloopus and Callinago gallinago. The mammalian fauna is also vey ich. The eseve contains pobably the wold 1 S lagest continuous population of the Asian Twohoned Rhinoceos Diceohinus sumatensis, estimated at between 250 and 500 individuals. Othe vulneable o ae mammals include tige, Asian elephant, tapi, clouded leopad, siamang, dakhanded gibbon and seow (Panthea tigis, Elephas maximus, Tapius indicus, Neofelis nebulosa, Symphalangus syndactlus, Hylobates agilis and Capiconis sumatensis). The Sumatan Hae Nesolagus netschei (endemic to Sumata) may have its last efuge in the eseve. Reptiles include Vaanus salvato, Python eticulatus and Dyophis pasinnus. Fogs ae common eveywhee in the eseve. Special floal values: The foested bog at Danau Bentu (Sangi Hulu) is claimed to be the highest foested mash in westen ndonesia. Unfotunately, much of the bog has been destoyed fo ice cultivation duing the last decade. The exceptionally ich floa of the Natue Reseve includes the wold 1 s lagest flowe, Rafflesia anoldi, and the wold 1 s tallest flowe, Amophophallus titanum. Reseach and facilities: Vaious bief faunal and floal suveys have been caied out in the Natue Reseve, e.g. by FeyWyssling in 1933, Jacobs in 1958, Bone in 1973, Meye in 1977, and Ohsawa and Suhato in The eseve has been selected as a study aea fo a long tem eseach pogamme unde the 11 Topenbospogamme 11, a joint effot between seveal Dutch eseach institutes and univesities. The pogamme was scheduled to begin in Refeences: Blouch, 1985; UCN (in pep); MacKinnon and Atha, 1982a. Citeia fo inclusion: la, b, le, 2a, 2b. Souce: Macel J. Silvius.

70 ,, KERNCSEBLAT NATONAL PARK Table 1. Amount of potected and nonpotected land unde the gid. Amount of Foest Amount of Non (Km2) foest HSA km km 2 Othe HSA* 94.2 km km 2 Adjacent HL km km 2 Othe HL km km 2 Nonpotected km km 2 * Th1s 1ncludes seveal aeas along the coast and 1n the Notheasten cone of the gid which ae not pat of Keinci Seblat N.P. Table 2. Vegetation cove within the potected aeas (HSA/HL). A. HSA, Vegetation type Total Total Aea aeas Montane Submontane Lowland Bush Agicultue Logged 0 0 Wate Bodies B. Adjacent HL Vegetation type Aea (km2) Submontane km 2 Lowland km 2 Nonfoest km 2

71 1 "1 1 ' ' 1, _::==========================: =============::=;. ~ ~ SUAKA MARGASATWA BERBAK Vegetation cove D HSA Vegetation Agicultue Tl LiJ Logged Lowland 0 Nonfoested m Swamp ~~ ~ Wate Aeas outside of the main HSAs ae fom a WCMC database which does not sepeate between Bush and Agicultue o between Montone and Submontane foest (thus the ~Jon foest calogoy incldes both Bush and Agicultue) Wokinq dofl: Do n~l copy ' Map by Minnesota Zotl/CBSG 0 k 20 :.:.J ~0

72 , BERBAK GAME RESERVE Aea: 190,000 ha Elevation ange: Sea level 20 m Status: Suaka Magasatwa SK GB No.18 Stbl. 521 Location: Kabupaten Tanjung Jabung Desciption: Bebak is a lage coastal eseve consisting mostly of peat swamps and also in the moe backish aeas mangove foest. At pesent this eseve is the only potected aea of peat swamp in Sumata. Peat swamp is of geat botanical inteest as well as being of geat foesty impotance and it is extemely impotant that this habitat emains included within the eseve system. Mangove foest too is ae, theatened and undeepesented in eseves and of high consevation value. Unfotunately pats of the eseve have been excised fo a) timbe concessions and b) ice poduction. t is vital that no futhe losses occu and desiable that compensatoy extensions ae made. A small extension at the nothen end of the eseve has been poposed. n addition it may be possible to acquie an adjacent eseve in Sumatea Selatan povince to the south. The eseve may still contain a small population of hinoceos as well as tiges. Reasons fo Potection: Potection of excellent epesentative example of swamp foests and mangove typical of east coast. Theats: ~ llegal Bugis settlements alteing dainage and cleaing mangove Hunting and fishing Logging in eseve Upsteam effluents flowing though ives '.. Scoing: Genetic value: 250 Socioeconomic justifications: 13 Management viability: 10 Oveall pioity: 1 Recommendations: Pevent futhe incusion by coastal settles. Mak clea boundaies aound existing villages and develop eseve as pe existing management plan. Refeences: FAO Bebak Game Reseve Management Plan FO/NS/78/061, Field Repot 38, Bogo. PPA, Bogo Lapoan Suvey Aeal Cadangan Suaka Alam/Xutan Wisata di Hutan Lindung Bukit Tapan dan Oientasi Lapangan di Hutan Bakau Bebak di Popinsi Jambi. PB, Bogo Telaah Kemungkinan Pengembangan dan Pembinaan Suaka Magasatwa Bebak Selama Pelita.

73 BERBAK GAME RESERVE Table 1. Amount of potected and nonpotected land unde the gid. Amount of Foest Amount of Non (Km2) foest HSA km km 2 Othe HSA 97.3 km km 2 HL* km km 2 Nonpotected km km 2 * Th~s ~s we~ghted to foest because some wate may be ~ncluded in the amount of foest.. Table 2. Vegetation cove within potected aeas (HSA/HL). A. HSA B. HL Vegetation type Total aeas Total Aea Swamp km 2 Agicultue km 2 Logged km 2 Vegetation type Aea (km2) Swamp km 2 Nonfoest km 2.

74 1 ' 1 1 ~ ~~ ~ ' 1 = _,, Vegetation SUAKA MARGASATWA BARSAN SELATAN Vegetation cove Wit ~ Agicultue Bush D HSA Lowland D Nonfoest n~ Submontane [] ~ Swamp ~ Wate Aeas outside of the main HSAs ae fom a WCMC database which does not scpp. <Jte between Bush ond Agicultue o between Montane and Submontane foest (thus the Non foest cologoy i~cldeo:; both Bush and Agicultue) Map by Minncsoto Zo )/CE3SC: km ] ~~~~~~~"'"'"'~L>. c=_j L ~? 20 ~~ C:=~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

75 , SUMATERA SELATAN (PART) Aea: 66,000 ha of total 356,800 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Suaka Magasatwa, SK GB No. 391, Poposed National Pak Location: Kabupaten Bengkulu Selatan Desciption: This nothen potion of the SS eseve is the lagest continuous foest block in the eseve, the most compact in shape, and the least distubed by human activities and speading of landangs. The aea is ich in wildlife. Elephants ae known to be pesent nea Danau Ranau and hinoceos ae also thought to be pesent. Whilst the est of SS appeas too heavily damaged and distubed fo consideation as a National Pak, this nothen potion does meet moe of the citeia as a lage tact of undistubed wildeness. The Bengkulu potion of SS compises a full ange of attitudinal types fom sea level to about 1800 m and is cetainly an aea of high consevation inteest. Reasons fo Potection: Hydological potection foest ~otection of floa and fauna Receation potential Recommendations: Retain this valuable eseve and manage togethe with the lage potion in Lampung povince in accodance with FAO Management Plan unde new name of Baisan Selatan. Refeence: FAO Poposed KeinciSeblat National Pak, Management Plan , FO/NS/78/061, Field Repot 14, Boga.

76 SUMATERA SELATAN (pat) Aea: 290,800 ha of a total 356,800 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Suaka Magasatwa, SK GB No. 391 Poposed National Pak Location: Kabupaten Lampung Selatan/Lampung Utaa Desciption: Sumatea Selatan is the second lagest eseve in Sumata (afte Gunung Leuse). t uns down the southen end of the Baisan ange of mountains but these ae not so high as futhe noth and ove 70% of the eseve is classified as lowland foest. Since this is based on ich volcanic stata and in the wettest pat of the island, the foest is lush and divese. The vegetation types include cove, some mangove and NYQ foest, some swampy gassland, a small aea of feshwate swamp foest, much hilly Dipteocap foest and also montane elements. Faunistically the eseve contains a vey complete coveage of the southen Sumatan fauna. Elephants ae not uncommon, a few hino still occu, beas and tiges ae pesent, wild dogs ae common, dee and monkeys well epesented, and the foests contain a long list of bid species, including seveal species of honbill, agus pheasants, paots, etc. Feal buffalo have established themselves in the eseve. n addition the eseve has a long coastline which has a vaiety of coastal types including sandy, ocky, muddy and coal substates. Thee ae seveal tutle nesting aeas along the south coast of the eseve. Again despite the obvious impotance of the eseve, it has been much abused in the past few yeas. Timbe companies have opeated within the eseve in fou places. Thee ae illegal settlements in seveal aeas, bounday pessue by ladang cleaance is vey high eveywhee, oads cut the long thin eseve into many fagments. Reasons fo Potection: Potection of lage fauna and floa Hydological potection foest High visito potential Theats: Logging Road constuction Shifting agicultue Hunting Recommendations: development. Follow tho evised FAO Management Plan fo Refeences: PB, Boga Telaah Kemungkinan Pengembangan dan Pembinaan Taman Nasional Sumatea Seletan Selama Pelita. FAO (1981 ). Baisan Selatan Game Reseve, Management Plan FO/NS/78/061. PPA, Boga Lapoan nventaisasi Floa dan Monitoing Ekosistcm di Suaki Alam Sumatea Selatan.

77 BARSAN SELATAN NATONAL PARK Table 1. Amount of potected and nonpotected land unde the gid. Amount of Foest Amount of Non (Km2) foest HSA km km 2 Adjacent HL km km 2 Othe HL 17.3 km km 2 Nonpotected km km 2 Table 2. Vegetation Cove within potected aeas (HSA/HL). A. HSA Vegetation type Total aeas Total Aea Submontane km 2 Lowland km 2 Swamp km 2 Bush km 2 Agicultue km 2 B. HL Vegetation type Aea (km2) Submontane km 2 Lowland km 2 Nonfoest km 2

78 1 1 1 ' a SUAKA MARGASATW A WAY KAMBAS Vegetation Cove ' Vegetation 0 Agicultue Bush oest D HSA Lowland [ill. Swamp ~ Wate ' Vegetation cove outside of main HSA comes fom a sepeole database, which does not diff eeniale Lowland foest fom Swonp. 4' V Ef aii!llll ~ Map by Minnesolo Zoo/CBSG km =:J ~. ~. ~~A'~AL l =~:_:

79 WAY KAMBAS GAME RESERVE Aea: 123,500 ha Elevation ange: 0 50 m status: Suaka Magasatwa, SK GB No.14 LN No. 38. Location: Kabupaten Lampung Tengah Desciption: Way Kambas is a lage flat eseve on the east coast of Lampung, established in Dutch colonial times because of its geat ichness of wildlife including elephants, tapis, tiges, sunbeas, many dee, six species of monkeys, wild dog, cocodiles and ghavials and a wealth of bid species. About 200 species of bids have been ecoded in the eseve including some ae and endangeed species. Notable is the whitewinged wood duck fo which this eseve may now be the last known nesting site outside of Assam. Botanically the aea is of geat inteest as one of the few lowland aeas of Dipteocap foest included in a Sumatan eseve and the lagest aea of nonpeat feshwate swamp in any eseve. The eseve also potects some good examples of accediting coastal foests with mangove swamps, ~ beds, Casuaina foest, Baingtonia and Pandanus fomations and swampy Nibung (Oonchospema sp.) Despite these obvious consevation values the eseve has been teibly damaged by the issuing of timbe concessions inside the eseve heavy poaching and uncontolled influx of spontaneous tansmigants. Ove 75% of the eseve constituting all the dy foest has been selectively logged. Some aeas so heavily logged that they have egessed into annually bunt gassland. Although official logging has ceased thee ae still lage numbes of small scale opeatos emoving logs by afting them down the ives to the coast. The Javan hinos which wee epoted to occu in the aea ae cetainly extinct now, thee ae vey few ecods of tiges being seen in ecent yeas, beas have become scace and elephants geatly educed. Many illegal settlements occu along the coast and paticulaly in the Way Penet aea inside the eseve with a total of about ten thousand people living inside the eseve. Despite this damage thee ae still elephants and abundant monkeys and tapis. Thee ae still some patches of foest which have only been lightly logged and could ecove to some semblance of thei oiginal fom. Reasons fo Potection: Theats: Logging Hunting ~ Fies Agicultual encoachment. Recommendations: Potection of ae fauna and floa. Despite the damage this aea still meits vey high consevation pioity and effots should be made to edess the disastous patten of exploitation of the last two decades and offe fim potection to this valuable aea. The existing FAO Management Plan should be followed. Refeence: FAO Way Kambas Management Plan FO/NS/78/061, Field Repot 5, Bogo.

80 WAY KAMBAS GAME RESERVE Table 1. Amount of potected and nonpotected land unde the gid. Amount of Foest Amount of Non (Km2) foest HSA 435 km km 2 HL 10.3 km km 2 Nonpotected km km 2 * Th~s ~s only UNC totally enclosed by HSA o HL. A. HSA B. HL Vegetation type Total aeas Total Aea Lowland km 2 Swamp km 2 Bush km 2 Agicultue km 2 3 Vegetation type Aea (km2) Foest 10.3 km 2 Agicultue 61.6 km 2 Table 2. Vegetation cove within potected aeas.

81 Lingga sag Aea: 80,000 ha Elevation ange: c m Status: Taman Buu Location: Kabupaten Aceh Tengah Desciption: The foested hills ae less lush than in Gunung Leuse and some natual pine occus at highe altitudes. The aea has excellent and vaied sceney suitable fo eceation puposes and good numbes of dee, pigs and small bids and mammals as well as some potected species such as elephant and tige. Reasons fo Potection: Oiginally fo hunting puposes Hydological potection foest Potection of fauna and floa Theats: Ovehunting Recommendations: The aea is not eally ideal fo hunting, cannot be popely contolled as a Hunting Reseve and has valuable wildlife esouces which should be potected fom hunting. Recommend change of status fom Taman Buu to Suaka Magasatwa. Develop modest visito facilities. Refeences: PPA Telaah Kemungkinan Pengembangan Taman Buu Lingga saq, Daeah stimewa Aceh. PPA Studi Blok Buu di Aceh.

82 Aea: ha Elevation ange: m Status: Potection Foest/Poposed Caga Alam Location: Kabupaten Daii Desciption: Excellent foested hills on limestone with a wealth of wildlife and some impotant mineal caves and saltlicks used by elephants and othe wildlife. Othe potected species include oangutans 1 sianangs 1 gibbons 1 tiges 1 seows and fomely hinoceos. The aea contains hot wate spings 1 beautiful watefalls and mineal seeps that attact lage numbes of butteflies including Togonoptea bookiana. Reasons fo Potection: Hydological potection foest Pesevation of ae fauna and floa Theats: Logging Ladangs Dolak Sembelin Recommendations: This supeb aea is pobably of geat impotant to the elephant populations of South Gn. Leuse and is also the site of fome oangutan eseach. t should be given much bette potection than cuently and should be aised in status to eaga Alam. Refeence: MacKinnon 1 J n seach of the Red Ape. Collins 1 London. Sibolga Aea: ha Elevation ange: m Status: Poposed Suaka Magasatwa Location: Kabupaten Tapanuli Tengah Desciption: Steep foested limestone hills of majo :.mpotance as a wate souce fo suounding aea but also having inteesting wildlife including seow 1 gibbons 1 tige 1 dee and pigs. Reasons fo Potection: Hydological potection foest Pesevation of endemic fauna and floa including seveal potected species Theats: Cutting of fiewood Hunting Peipheal ladang cleaance Recommendations: Suvey fo suitability as Suaka Magasatwa

83 Lembah Anai Aea: 96,002 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Potection Foest/Poposed Caga Alam Location: Kabupatens Tanah Data/Padang Paiaman Desciption: Hilly potection foests on volcanic hills of Baisan Range. The aea is not easily accessible. Thee ae still tiges in the foests which also habo seveal pimate species and a wealth of bids. Reasons fo Potection: Hydological potection foests Potection of floa and fauna Theats: Hunting of tige.. Recommendation: Although of modeate consevation inteest the aea is cuently not theatened and equies no management o development. t should emain as Hutan Lindung. Lembah Haah Aea: 23,476 ha Elevation anges: m Status: Potection Foest/Poposed Caga Alam Location: Kabupaten Limapuluh Kota Desciption: Potection foests on the limestone hills along the povincial bode with Riau. The foests ae scenic of impotance as wate catchments and contain valuable potected wildlife such as tiges and seow. Reasons fo Potection: Hydological potection foest. Theats: Ladang encoachment Hunting Cutting of fiewood and timbe Recommendations: Pocess aea as eaga Alam and combine with extension aga Alam Lembah Haah. Refeence: PPA, Bogo Studi Pengembangan/Rencana Pengelolaan Caga Alam dan Wisata Lembah Haah, Sumatea Baat.

84 D. Maninjau Utaa/Selatan Aea : 22,106 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Potection Foest/Poposed eaga Alam Location: Kabupatens Agam and Padang Paiaman Desciption: Attactive foests on the hills suounding the beautiful esot lake Danau Maninjau. Siamangs call fom the foest ove the lake and tiges ae still epoted to occu. Reasons fo Potection: Hydological potection foests Aesthetic value Potection of floa and fauna Theats: Few Bukit Sebelah and Batang Pangean. Aea: 22,803 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Poposed eaga Alam (Potection Foest) Location: Kabupaten Sawahlunto Desciption: Foested limestone hills on eithe side of the main oad south fom Muaa and Sijunjung. The foests ae athe distubed with extensive ladang encoachment. Tall foests contain such species as Shoea, Litsea, Scoodocapus and Koompassia. The foests have a vaied wildlife with dee, monkeys, tiges, elephants and many bids. Reasons fo Potection: Hydological potection foest. Theats: Ladang encoachment Hunting Logging Recommendations: The foest shape is so iegula that pope contol as a eseve would be vey difficult. The aea does not scoe well enough to meit tansfe fom cuent status as Hutan Lindung. Refeence: PPA, Boga Alan/Hutan Wisata Sumatea Baat). Lapoan Suvey Bukit Sebelah dan Aeal eadangan Suaka Kuantan (Popinsi

85 ,,. Bajang Ai Tausan Utaa Aea: 81,865 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Potection Foest/Poposed Caga Alam Location: Kabupaten Padang Paiaman Desciption: Hilly lowland and montane foests on volcanic soils with tall divese foests and a wealth of wildlife including elephants and tiges, many pimates and the vey ae endemic Sumatan hae Nesolagus netschei. The hills ae a vital catchment aea fo the fetile Padang coastal plain. Reasons fo Potection: Hydological potection foest Pesevation of ae fauna and floa Theats: Cutting of fiewood and timbe Hunting and tapping of wildlife (pimates) Ladang encoachment in lowlands Recommendations: Although of modeate consevation value the cuent status of Hutan Lindung is pobably sufficient to potect this aea. f the aea continues to be damaged unde this status it may eventually be necessay to upgade it to Caga Alam. Keumutan (Bau) Aea: 120,000 ha Elevation ange: c.20 m Status: Caga Alam, SK Mentan 350/Kpts/Um/6/79 Location: Kabupaten Kampa Desciption: Extensive peat swamp foests with a small aea of dy land foest. The distict is ich in wildlife including elephant, tige, tapis, beas, gibbons, eptiles, bids, etc. The southen tip of the eseve is opened up with ice sawahs but othewise the aea is faily undistubed. Reasons fo Potection: Pesevation of fauna and floa. This is the best epesentative example of inland lowland swamp foests in the povince and ichest in species due to poximity of dy land foests. Theats: Agicultual expansion in eseve Hunting Logging potential Recommendations: Retain as Caga Alam and ty to extend boundaies in the nothwest to include the emaining foest in the old Keumutan eseve (see aea 10). Refeence: PPA, Boga Lapoan Pengembangen Suaka Magasatwa Popinsi Riau, Sumatea. Penelaahan Aeal Kemunkinan Keumutan di Kabupatcn Kampa,

86 Danau Bawah dan P. Besa Aea: 25,000 ha Elevation ange: Sea level Status: eaga Alam Location: Kabupaten Kampa Desciption: The aea is peat swamps with two lakes and an island in one of the lakes. The floa is an excellent example of the extensive Shoea and Ramin swamp foests with attactive setting and a ich wildlife including cocodiles, tiges, tapis, pimates and many bids. Reason fo Potection: Potection of floa and fauna Aesthetic inteest Theats: Land cleaance fo tansmigation Logging Recommendation: This is an attactive and inteesting example of peat swamps and lakes, well woth keeping. Refeence: PPA, Boga Lapoan Suvai Aeal eadangan Suaka Alam/Hutan Wisata Kelompok Hutan Bukit KembangBukit Baling Baling dan Kelompok Hutan Danau Pulau Besa Danau Bawah (Popinsi Daeah Tingkat Riau). Sebeida Aea: 120,000 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Poposed eaga Alam Location: Kabupaten ndagii Hulu Desciption: Tall foested lowland hills and plains on the southen povincial bounday. The floa is extemely ich and thee is also a divese fauna including tige, tapi, seow, elephant, cocodiles, pimates and many bids. The aea is patly encoached upon by ladangs and much of the aea is planned fo logging. Reasons fo Potection: Theats: Ladang encoachment Logging plans ovelap Potection of floa and fauna. Recommendations: This aea is vey ich and of geat consevation inteest. Evey effot should be made to get as much as possible of this foest block as a eaga Alam. The oiginal poposed aea of only 15,000 ha is too small. Refeence: PPA, Bogo. (1977). Lapoan suvai penjajagan wilayah Hutan Sebeida di Kabupaten ndagii Hulu, Popinsi Riau.

87 .,, ' Bukit Baling Baling Aea: c.146,000 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Poposed Caga Alam Location: Kabupaten ndagii Hulu Desciption: Some of the few hills in the povince including some limestone. The oiginal poposal includes lage cultivated, occupied o distubed foest. Only about half of this aea is suitable fo a eseve. The aea contains tige, tapi, seow, dee, siamangs, gibbons, monkeys and a ich bid fauna. Reasons fo Potection: Hydological potection foest Pesevation of fauna and floa Theats: Ladang encoachment Hunting Logging Recommendations: Much of this aea would make a vey inteesting and valuable eseve. Recommend suvey to find moe suitable boundaies that exclude the human distubance. Refeence: PPA, Boga Lapoan Suvai Aeal Cadangan Suaka Alam/Hutan Wisata Kelompok Hutan Bukit KembangBukit Baling Baling dan Kelompok Hutan Danau Pulau Besa Danau Sawah (Popinsi Daeah Tindkat Riau). Peanap Aea: c.120,000 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Poposed Taman Buu Location: Kabupnten ndagii Hulu Desciption: Foe!Jted olling plains at the southen bode of the povince of some agicultual potential, some foesty inteest and unknown consevation impotance. The aea pesumably habos the usual lowland fauna including tiges, elephants, tapi, beas, pimates and bids. ' Reasons fo Potection: Theats: Logging plans Shifting agicultue Hunting Potection of floa and fauna. Recommendation: The aea is clealy of some consevation value but futhe suvey is needed to detemine whethe these ae enough to justify eseve status.

88 Siak Kecil Aea: c.100,000 ha Elevation ange: c.20 m Status: Poposed Taman Buu/Suaka Magasatwa Location: Kabupaten Bengkalis Desciption: Vey inteesting system of small lakes used by false ghavial cocodiles Thomistoma schlegeli. Also good habitat fo elephant, tige, tapi and othe wildlife and heavily used by wate bids. Reasons fo Potection: Potection of beeding aea of ae cocodile species. Potection of floa and fauna including endangeed species such as tapi and elephant. Theats: Logging Distubance by oil exploation Recommendations: This a vey inteesting aea of lakes vey impotant to the suvival of false ghavial cocodiles elephants and also used by tiges. t would make an excellent swamp eseve and should be made lage than the oiginal poposed of c.40,000 ha. t should be given Suaka Magasatwa status and not used fo hunting. Ai Sawan Aea: c.140,000 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Poposed Suaka Magasatwa Location: Kabupaten ndagii Hulu Desciption: A lage almost undistubed foested aea on a belt of impoveished and agicultually useless soil. The foest is slightly stunted and theefoe of educed timbe inteest but is botanically inteesting and habos valuable wildlife such as tige, tapi, elephant and pimates. Reasons fo Potection: Pesevation of floa and fauna. Recommendations: Because the aea is of low use fo agicultue o logging but has a high consevation value, its establishment as a eseve would seem tho most sensible land use. Recommend suvey fo suitable boundaies and pocess as Suaka Magasatwa.

89 , Batang Meangin Baat/Menjuta Ulu Aea: 64,600 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Hutan Lindung SK GB No.44 Poposed Suaka Magasatwa Location: Kabupatens Keinci/Muaa BungoTebo Desciption: This aea to the south of Danau Keinci is.lagely montane but does contain a small aea of lowland foest. The poposed aea has aleady been heavily encoached by agicultual cleaing though about 30,000 ha of foest emain intact. The aea is adjacent to the Buki t Tapan eseve and would also come within the boundaies of the poposed Keinci National Pak. The aea is known to suppot hinoceos, tapi and tige, so is clealy valuable fo consevation in its own ight as well as being an impotant potection foest. Reasons fo Potection: Hydological potection foest Potection of ae fauna including tiges, tapis and hinoceos Theats: Agicultual encoachment Geothemal potential,_. Recommendations: Pocess as Suaka Magasatwa. Cultivated aeas inside eseve should be maked and declaed buffe zones. The eseve should be included in the poposed Keinci Seblat National Pak as pe existing Management Plan. Refeences: FAO Poposed KeinciSeblat National Pak Management Plan FO/NS/78/061 Field Repot 14, Boga.

90 Gumai Pasemah Aea: 45,883 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Suaka Magasatwa, SK Mentan No.408/Kpts/Um/6/1976 Location: Kabupaten Lahat Desciption: This old colonial potection foest was ecently declaed a eseve because of its floal, faunal and histoic value. About half the eseve is montane but the lowe slopes ae still faily well foested though encoached well within the eseve boundaies on the nothen side. The aea is epoted to contain many inteesting animal species including elephants, tige, siamangs, seow, agus pheasants and honbills. Of botanical inteest ae the Rafflesia flowes and of histoical inteest ae some caved ocks and statues. Reasons fo Potection: Hydological potection foest Potection of fauna and floa Aesthetic inteest Histoic sites Theats: Shifting agicultue Hunting Recommendations: Retain as Suaka Magasatwa but impove levels of potection and management. sausau Pasemah Aea: 12,114 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Suaka Magasatwa SK Mentan No. 69/Kpts/Um/2/1978 Location: Kabupaten Lahat/LOT Desciption: This is anothe ecently declaed eseve that wasfomely a potection foest. The aea of the eseve is not lage enough to contain such lage animals as elephants but is nevetheless an inteesting example of wet lowland ainfoest and contains many inteesting animals such as tiges, beas, tapi, seow, siamangs, agus pheasants and honbills. The vegetation is dominated by Dipteocapaceae, Fagaceae, and Lauaceae tees. Reasons fo Potection: Hydological potection foest Potection of fauna and floa Theats: Shifting agicultual encoachment Hunting Cutting of timbe..., Recommendations: Retain as Suaka Magasatwa and impove potection.

91 Gunung Raya Aea: 39,500 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Suaka Magasatwa SK Mentan No.SS/Kpts/Um/1/197 Location: Kabupaten Ogan Komeing Ulu Desciption: This aea in the southenmost tip of the povince again potects both montane and lowland ainfoest. The eseve is bodeed by agicultue on the westen side but is bodeed to the south and east by potection foests on the othe side of the povince bounday in Lampung and thus faces less pessue than othe eseves in South Sumata. The aea is again dominated by Dipteocapaceae, Fagaceae, Lauaceae and epoted to contain many inteesting ochids. Most of the chaacteistic fauna of Sumata have been epoted fo the aea including elephant, tapi, beas, seow, dee, siamang, agus pheasants and seveal species of honbill. Reasons fo Potection: Hydological potection foest Potection of floa and fauna Theats: Agicultual encoachment on west side Recommendations: Retain as Suaka Magasatwa..

92 Rawas Hulu Lakitan Aea: 213,437 ha Elevation ange: m Status: Suaka Magasatwa SK Mentan No.424/Kpts/Um/7/1979 Location: Kabupaten Rawas Hulu Desciption: This lage aea composed of two old potection foests was ecently declaed a eseve. The eseve contains a lage potion of montane foest but ove half of the eseve is lowland, making this a vey impotant and valuable addition to the montanedominated Sumatan eseve system. The eseve etains its impotant potection foest functions but is also the home fo many endangeed species including tiges, elephants and hinoceos. The eseve foms the southen end of a lage continuous block of eseves and potection foests aound the valley of lake Keinci and is planned eventually to be incopoated into a Keinci National Pak that will cove pats of fou povinces. Reasons fo Potection: Hydological potection foest Potection of ae fauna and floa including elephant, tige and hinoceos Theats: Shifting agicultue Hunting Timbe cutting Collection of attan Recommendations: Retain this supeb eseve and include in the poposed KeinciSeblat National Pak as pe existing Management Plan. Refeences: PPA, Boga Lapoan Suvey Reconnaissance Daeah Musi Rawas Ulu Lakitan dsk dan Bentayan Dangku dsk Popinsi Sumatea Selatan. FAO Poposed KeinciSeblat National Pak Management Plan FO/NS/78/061, Field Repot 14, Boga..,

93 i j,. t.. i,! SUMATRAN RHNO POPULATON AND HABTAT VABLTY ANALYSS WORKSHOP BREFNG BOOK SECTON 7: OVERVEW OF VORTEX AND POPULATON AND HABTAT VABLTY ANALYSS

94 , Captive Beeding Specialist Goup Species Suvival Commission UCN The Wold Consevation Union U.S. Seal, CUSG Chaiman POPULATON and HABTAT VABLTY ANALYSS WORKSHOPS ' O~jectives and Pocess, The PHVA wokshop povides population viability assessments fo each population of a species o subspecies as decided in aanging the wokshop. The assessment fo each species will undetake an in depth analysis of infomation on the life histoy, population dynamics, ecology, and population histoy of the individual populations. nfomation on the demogaphy, genetics, and envionmental factos petinent to assessing the status of each population and its isk of extinction unde cuent management scenaios and peceived theats will be assembled in pepaation fo the PHVA and fo the individual populations befoe and duing the wokshop. An impotant featue of the wokshops is the elicitation of infomation fom the expeto; that is not eadily available in published fom yet which may of decisive impotance in undestanding the behavio of the species in tht' wild. This infomation will povide the basis fo constucting simulation models of each population which will in a single model evaluate the deteministic and stochastic effects and inteactions of genetic, demogaphic, envionmental and catastophic factos on the population dynamics and extinction isks. The pocess of fomulating infomation to put into the models equies that assumptions and the data available to suppot the assumptions be made explicit. This pocess tends lead to consensus building on the biology of the species. as cuently known, and usually leads to a basic simulation model fo the species that can seve as fo continuing discussion of management altenatives and adaptive management of the species o population as new infomation is obtained. t in effect povides a means fo conducting management pogams as scientific execises with continuing evaluation of new infomation in a sufficiently timely manne to be of benefit to adjusting management pactices.. These wokshop execises ae able assist the fomulation of management scenaios fo the espective species and evaluate thei possible effects on educing the isks of extinction. t is also possible though sensitivity analyses to seach fo factos whose manipulation may have the geatest effect on the suvival and gowth of the population(s). One can in effect apidly exploe a wide ange of values fo the paametes in the model(s) to gain a pictue of how the species might espond to changes in management. This appoach may also he used to assist in evaluating the infomation cnntihutiun of poposed and nngning eseach studies to the consevation management of the species Johnny Cake Ridge Road, Apple Valley, MN 55124, CSA tel bx 612: (home) 9801 Pillsbuy Ave. S., Bloomington, \1' 55120, USA tel Ln:

95 PHV A Wokshop Pepaation 2 nfomation and Expetise Shot eviews and summaies of new infomation on topics of impotance fo consevation management and ecovey of the individual populations ae also pepaed duing the wokshop. Of paticula inteest ae topics addessing: (2) the need fo molecula taxonomic, genetic heteozygosity, site specific adaptations, and the effects of seed banks on the ate of loss of heteozygosity, (3) the ole of disease, pedation, and competition in the dynamics of the wild population, in potential eintoductions o tanslocations, and in the location and management of captive populations, ( 4) the possible ole of inbeeding in the dynamics and management of the captive and wild population(s), (1) factos likely to have opeated in the decline of the species o its failue to ecove with management and whethe they ae still impotant, (5) the potential uses of epoductive technology fo the consevation of the species whethe though genome banking o tansfe of genetic mateial between subpopulations, (6) techniques fo monitoing the status of the population duing the management manipulations to allow thei evaluation and modification as new infomation is developed, (7) the possible need fo metapopulation management fo long tem suvival of the species, (8) fomulation of quantitat;ve genetic and demogaphic population goals fo ecovey of the species and what level of management will be needed to achieve and maintain those goals, (9) cost estimates fo each of the activities suggested fo futheing consevation management of the species.

96 PHVA Wokshop Pepaation 3 Pepaation and Documentation Needs nfomation to be included in biefing book: 1. Bibliogaphy pefeably complete as possible and eithe on disk o in clean copy that we can scan into a compute file. jill ' ~, 2. Taxonomic desciption and most ecent aticle(s) with infomation on systematic status including status as a species, possible subspecies, and any geogaphically isolated populations. 3. Molecula genetic aticles and manuscipts including systematics, heteozygosity evaluation, paentage studies, and population stuctue. 4. Desciption of distibution with numbes (even cude estimates) with dates of infomation, maps (1 :250,000 o bette if needed) with latitude and longitude coodinates. 5. Potection status and potected aeas with thei population estimates. Location on maps. Desciption of pesent and pojected theats and ates of change. Fo example, gowth ate (demogaphic analysis) of local human populations and numeical estimates thei use of esouces (development plans) fom the habitat. 6. Field studies both published and unpublished agency and oganization epots (with dates of the field wok). Habitat equiement;, habitat status, pojected changes in habitat. nfomation on epoduction, motality (fom all causes), census, and distibution paticulaly valuable. s the species subject to contolled o uncontolled exploitation? Collecting? 7. Life histoy infomation paticulaly that useful fo the modelling. ncludes: size stage infomation, stage tansitions, age of fist epoduction, mean seed poduction and gemination ates, occuence and suvival of seed banks, life expectancy, stage motalities, adult motality, dispesal, and seasonality of epoduction. 8. Published o daft Recovey Plans (National o egional) fo the wild population(s). Special studies on habitat. easons fo decline, envionmental fluctuations that affect epoduction and motality, and possible catastophic events. 9. Management masteplans fo the captive population and any genome banks. 11. Colo pictues (slides okay) of species in wild suitable fo use as cove of biefing book and final PYA document.

97 PHV A Wokshop Pepaation 4 Plans fo the Meeting: 1. Dates and location. Who will oganize the meeting place and take cae of local aangements? Should povide living quates and food fo the 3 days in a location that minimizes outside distactions. Plan fo meeting and woking ooms to be available fo the evening as well as the day. Thee full days and evenings ae needed fo the wokshop with aival the day befoe and depatue on the 4th day. 2. Aveage numbe of paticipants about 30 usually with a coe goup of about 15 esponsible fo making pesentations. Obseves (up to 20) welcome if facilities available but thei aangements should be thei own esponsibility. Essential that all with an inteest in the species be infomed of the meeting. Paticipants to include: (1) all of the biologists with infomation on the species in the wild should be invited and expected to pesent thei data, (2) policy level manages in the agencies with management esponsibility, (3) NGOs that have paticipated in consevation effots, (4) education and PR people fo local pogams, (5) botanical gaden o hebaium biologists with knowledge of the species, (6) expets in plant population biology and needed aeas of biological expetise and (7) local scientists with an inteest in the species. 3. Pepaation of biefing document. 4. Funding (cost analysis available) pimaily fo tavel and pe diem duing the meeting, pepaation of biefing document and the PYA epot, and some pesonnel costs. CBSG costs ae fo pepaation of the documents, completion of the modelling and epot afte the meeting, tavel of 34 people, and thei pe diem. We estimate that each PHV A Wokshop costs CBSG $10,000 to $15,000 depending upon the amount of wok equied in pepaation and afte the wokshop to complete the epot. 5. Pepaation of agenda and secuing of commitments to paticipate, supply infomation, and make pesentations needs to have one peson esponsible and to keep in close contact with CBSG office on pepaations. 6. Meeting facilities need to include meeting oom fo goup, beak away aeas. blackboad, slide pojecto, ovehead pojecto, electical outlets fo 3+ computes, pinte (paallel pot BM compatible), and photocopying to poduce about copies pe day. Have food bought in fo lunches. Allow fo woking goups to meet at night.

98 SSC MSSON To peseve biological divesity by developing and executing pogams to save, estoe and wisely manage species and thei habitats. PHV A WORKSHOPS Guidelines Evey idea o plan o belief about the Species can be examined and discussed Eveyone paticipates & no one dominates Set aside (tempoaily) all special agendas except saving the Species Assume good intent Yes and. Stick to ou schedule. begin and end pomptly Pimay wok will be conducted in subgoups Facilitato can call 'timeout' Ageements on ecommendations by consensus Plan to complete and eview daft epot by end of meeting Adjust ou pocess and schedule as needed to achieve ou goals

99 , POPULATON AND HABTAT VABLTY ASSESSMENT CBSG/SSC!UCN thanks the 'Host Agency' fo the invitation to paticipate in this Wokshop on the consevation of the 'SPECES'. SSC MSSON: To peseve biological divesity by developing and executing pogams to save, estoe and wisely manage species and thei habitats. Captive Beeding Specialist Goup (CBSG) woks as a pat of the UCN Species Suvival Commission (SSC) to assist escue of species. CBSG has conducted Population and Habitat Viability Assessment (PHVA) wokshops fo >50 species in 22 counties at the equest of host counties. Values of the Wokshops ae in: * binging togethe all goups esponsible fo the saving and management of the species to build a consensus on actions needed fo the ecovey of the species; * binging togethe expets whose knowledge may assist escue of the species; * assembling cuent infomation on status of the species and the theats to its suvival; * poviding an objective assessment of the isk of extinction of the species based upon cuent infomation~ * using simulation models to test altenative management actions fo escue of the species and its ecovey; * poducing an objective epot which can be used as a basis fo the policy and implementation actions that ae needed to save the species. These Wokshops have helped chat a couse fo saving of many species; we hope that this Wokshop will be a help to ou colleagues in thei wok to save the 'Species'..,

100 PHVA Wokshop Pepaation PHVA DATA NEEDS 7 MAP OF POPULATON(S) DSTRBUTON AND FRAGMENTATON CENSUS AND CHANGES DURNG PAST 1050 YEARS AVERAGE AGE OF FRST REDUCTON (FEMALE & MALE) OLDEST AGE (SENESCENCE) MONOGAMOUS OR POLYGYNOUS NBREEDNG CATASTROPHES & THREATS ALL MALES N BREEDNG POOL? MAXMUM YOUNG DUCED PER YEAR PORTON OF ADULT FEMALES REDUCNG PER YEAR MORTALTY: 0 1 JUVENLES ADULT FREQUENCY & SEVERTY OF CATASTROPHES STARTNG POPULATON SZE (AGE DSTRBUTON F KNOWN) CARRYNG CAPACTY AND JECTED CHANGES HARVESTS PORTON OF YOUNG (LTTER/CLUTCH SZES) SUPPLEMENTATON ANNUAL RATES AND STANDARD DEVATONS F POSSBLE

101 PHV A Wokshop Pepaation VORTEX Simulation model of stochastic population change Witten by Robet Lacy Chicago Zoological Pak Bookfield, L Stochastic simulation of population extinction Vesion 5.1, 13 Apil 1991 Life table analyses yield aveage longtem pojections of population gowth (o decline), but do not eveal the fluctuations in population size that would esult fom vaiability in demogaphic pocesses. When a population is small and isolated fom othe populations of conspecifics, these andom fluctuations can lead to extinction even of populations that have, on aveage, positive population gowth. The VORTEX pogam (ealie vesions called SMPOP and VORTCES) is a Monte Calo simulation of demogaphic events in the histoy of a population. Some of the algoithms in VORTEX wee taken fom a simulation pogam, SPGPC, witten in BASC by James Gie of Noth Dakota State Univesity (Gie 1980a, 1980b, Gie and Baclay 1988). Fluctuations in population size can esult fom any o all of seveal levels of stochastic (andom) effects. Demogaphic vaiation esults fom the pobabilistic natue of bith and death pocesses. Thus, even if the pobability of an animal epoducing o dying is always constant, we expect that the actual popotion epoducing o dying within any time inteval to vay accoding to a binomial distibution with mean equal to the pobability of the event (p) and vaiance given by Vp = p * (1 p) N. Demogaphic vaiation is thus intinsic to the population and occus in the simulation because bith and death events ae detemined by a andom pocess (with appopiate pobabilities). Envionmental vaiation (EV) is the vaiation in the pobabilities of epoduction and motality that occu because of changes in the envionment on an annual basis (o othe timescales). Thus, EV impacts all individuals in the population simultaneously changing the pobabilities (means of the above binomial distibutions) of bith and death. The souces of EV ae thus extinsic to the population itself, due to weathe, pedato and pey populations, paasite loads, etc. VORTEX models population pocesses as discete, sequential events, with pobabilistic outcomes detemined by a pseudoandom numbe geneato. VORTEX simulates bith and death pocesses and the tansmission of genes though the geneations by geneating andom numbes to detemine whethe each animal lives o dies, whethe each adult female poduces boods of size 0, o 1, o 2, o 3, o 4, o 5 duing each yea, and which of the two alleles at a genetic locus ae tansmitted fom each paent to each offsping. Motality and epoduction pobabilities ae sexspecific. Fecundity is assumed to be independent of age (afte an animal eaches epoductive age). Motality ates ae specified fo each peepoductive age class and fo epoductiveage animals. The mating system can be 8...

102 . PHVA Wokshop Pepaation specified to be eithe monogamous o polygynous. n eithe case, the use can specify that only a subset of the adult male population is in the beeding pool (the emainde being excluded pehaps by social factos). Those males in the beeding pool all have equal pobability of siing offsping. 9 ~ i Each simulation is stated with a specified numbe of males and females of each peepoductive age class, and a specified numbe of male and females of beeding age. Each animal in the initial population is assigned two unique alleles at some hypothetical genetic locus, and the use specifies the seveity of inbeeding depession (expessed in the model as a loss of viability in inbed animals). The compute pogam simulates and tacks the fate of each population, and outputs summay statistics on the pobability of population extinction ove specified time intevals, the mean time to extinction of those simulated populations that went extinct, the mean size of populations not yet extinct, and the levels of genetic vaiation emaining in any extant populations. Extinction of a population (o metapopulation) is defined in VORTEX as the absence of eithe sex. (n some ealie vesions of VORTEX, extinction was defined as the absence of both sexes.) Recolonization occus when a fomely extinct population once again has both sexes. Thus, a population would go "extinct" if all females died, and would be ecolonized if a female subsequently migated into that population of males. Populations lacking both sexes ae not consideed to be ecolonized until at least one male and at least one female have moved in. A population caying capacity is imposed by a pobabilistic tuncation of each age class if the population size afte beeding exceeds the specified caying capacity. The pogam allows the use to model tends in the caying capacity, as linea inceases o deceases acoss a specified numbes of yeas. The use also has the option of modelling density dependence in epoductive ates..e., one can simulate a population that esponds to low density with inceased (o deceased) beeding, o that deceases beeding as the population appoaches the caying capacity of the habitat. To model densitydependent epoduction, the use must ente the paametes (A, B, C, D, and E) of the following polynomial equation descibing the popotion of adult females beeding as a function of population size: Popotion beeding= A+ BN + CNN + DNNN + ENNNN, in which N is total population size. Note that the paamete A is the popotion of adult females beeding at minimal population sizes. A positive value fo B will cause inceasing epoduction with inceasing population sizes at the low end of the ange. Paametes C, D, and E dominate the shape of the density dependence function at inceasingly highe population sizes. Any of the values can be set to zeo (e.g., to model density dependence as a quadatic equation, set D = E = 0). To detemine the appopiate values fo A though E, a

103 PHV A Wokshop Pepaation use would estimate the paametes that povide the best fit of the polynomial function to an obseved (o hypothetical) data set. Most good statistical packages have the capability of doing this. Although the polynomial equation above may not match a desied density dependence function (e.g., Logistic, BevctonHolt, o Ricke functions), almost any density dependence function can be closely appoximated by a 4thode polynomial. Afte specifying the popotion of adult females beeding, in the fom of the polynomial, the use is pompted to input the pecent of successfully beeding females that poduce litte sizes of 1, 2, etc. t is impotant to note that with density dependence, pecents of females poducing each size litte ae expessed as pecents of those females beeding, and the use does not explicitly ente a pecent of females poducing no offsping in an aveage yea. (That value is given by the polynomial.) n the absence of density dependence, the use must specify the pecent of females failing to beed, and the pecents poducing each litte size ae pecents of all beeding age females (as in ealie vesions of VORTEX). Read the pompts on the sceen caefully as you ente data, and the distinction should become clea. VORTEX models envionmental vaiation simplistically (that is both the advantage and disadvantage of simulation modelling}, by selecting at the beginning of each yea the population agespecific bith ates, agespecific death ates, and caying capacity fom distibutions with means and standad deviations specified by the use. EV in bith and death ates is simulated by sampling binomial distibutions, with the standad deviations specifying the annual fluctuations in pobabilities of epoduction and motality. EV in caying capacity is modelled by sampling a nomal distibution. EV in epoduction and EV in motality can be specified to be acting independently o jointly (coelated in so fa as is possible fo discete binomial distibutions). Unfotunately, aely do we have sufficient field data to estimate the fluctuations in bith and death ates, and in caying capacity, fo a wild population. (The population would have to be monitoed fo long enough to sepaate, statistically, sampling eo, demogaphic vaiation in the numbe of beedes and deaths, and annual vaiation in the pobabilities of these events.) Lacking any data on annual vaiation, a use can ty vaious values, o simply set EV = 0 to model the fate of the population in the absence of any eavionmental vaiation. VORTEX can model catastophes, the exteme of envionmental vaiation, as events that occu with some specified pobability and educe suvival and epoduction fo one yea. A catastophe is detemined to occu if a andomly geneated numbe between 0 and 1 is less than the pobability of occuence (i.e., a binomial pocess is simulated). f a catastophe occus, the pobability of beeding is multiplied by a seveity facto specified by the use. Similaly. the pobability of suviving each age class is multiplied by a seveity facto specified by the use. VORTEX also allows the use to supplement o havest the population fo any numbe of yeas in each simulation. The numbes of immigants and emovals ae specified by age and sex. VORTEX outputs the obseved ate of population gowth (mean of N[t]/N[t1]) 10.

104 PHVA Wokshop Pepaation 11 sepaately fo the yeas of supplementation/havest and fo the yeas without such management, and allows fo epoting of extinction pobabilities and population sizes at whateve time inteval is desied (e.g., summay statistics can be output at 5yea intevals in a 100yea simulation). VORTEX can tack multiple subpopulations, with usespecified migation among the units. (This vesion of the pogam has peviously been called VORTCES.) The migation ates ae enteed fo each pai of subpopulations as the popotion of animals in a subpopulation that migate to anothe sub population (equivalently, the pobability that an animal in one migates to the othe) each yea. VORTEX outputs summay statistics on each subpopulation, and also on the metapopulation. Because of migation (and, possibly, supplementation), thee is the potential fo population ecolonization afte local extinction. VORTEX tacks the time to fist extinction, the time to ecolonization, and the time to eextinction. Oveall, VORTEX simulates many of the complex levels of stochasticity that can affect a population. Because it is a detailed model of population dynamics, it is not pactical to examine all possible factos and all inteactions that may affect a population. t is theefoe incumbent upon the use to specify those paametes that can be estimated easonably, to leave out of the model those that ae believed not to have a substantial impact on the population of inteest, and to exploe a ange of possible values fo paametes that ae potentially impotant but vey impecisely known. VORTEX is, howeve, a simplified model of the dynamics of populations. One of its atificialities is the lack of density dependence of death ates except when the population exceeds the caying capacity. Anothe is that inbeeding depession is modelled as an effect on juvenile motality only; inbeeding is optimistically assumed not to effect adult suvival o epoduction. VORTEX accepts input eithe fom the keyboad o fom a data file. Wheneve VORTEX is un with keyboad enty of data, it ceates a file called VORTEX.BAT that contains the input data, eady fo esubmission as a batch file. Thus, the simulation can be instantly eun by using VORTEX.BAT as the input file. By editing VORTEX.BAT, a few changes could easily be made to the input paametes befoe eunning VORTEX. Note that the file VORTEX.BAT is ovewitten each time that VORTEX is un. Theefoe, you should ename the batch file if you wish to save it fo late use. By using data file input, multiple simulations can be un while the compute is unattended. (Depending on the compute used, the simulations can be elatively quick a few minutes fo 100 uns o vey slow.) Output can be diected to the sceen o to a file fo late pinting. would ecommend that VORTEX only be used on a (o faste) compute with a math copocesso. t should un on slowe machines, but it might be hopelessly slow. The pogam can make use of any extended memoy available on the compute (note: only extended, not expanded, memoy above 1MB will be used), and the exta memoy will be necessay to un analyses with the Heteosis inbeeding depession option on populations

105 PHV A Wokshop Pepaation 12 of geate than about 450 animals. To use VORTEX with expanded memoy, fist un the pogam TUNE, which will customize the pogam EX286 (a Dos Extende) fo you compute. f TUNE hangs up DOS, simply eboot and un it again (as often as is necessay). This behavio of TUNE is nomal and will not affect you compute. Afte TUNEing the Dos Extende, un EX286, and then finally un VORTEX. TUNE needs to be un only once on you compute, EX286 needs to be un (if VORTEX is to be used with extended memoy) afte each ebooting of the compute. Note that EX286 might take extended memoy away fom othe pogams (in fact it is bette to disable any esident pogams that use extended memoy befoe unning EX286); and it will elease that memoy only afte a eboot. f you have anothe extended memoy manage on you system (e.g., HMEM.SYS), you will have to disable it befoe using EX286. VORTEX uses lots of files and lots of buffes. Theefoe, you may need to modify the CONFG.SYS file to include the lines FLES=25 BUFFERS=25 in ode to get the pogam to un. VORTEX is not copy potected. Use it, distibute it, evise it, expand upon it. would appeciate heaing of uses to which it is put, and of couse don 1 t mind acknowledgement fo my effots. James Gie should also be acknowledged (fo developing the pogam that was the base fo VORTEX) any time that VORTEX is cited. A final caution: VORTEX is continually unde evision. cannot guaantee that it has no bugs that could lead to eoneous esults. t cetainly does not model all aspects of population stochasticity, and some of its components ae simply and cudely epesented. t can be a vey useful tool fo exploing the effects of andom vaiability on population pesistence, but it should be used with due caution and an undestanding of its limitations. Refeences Gie, J. 1980a. Ecology: A simulation model fo small populations of animals. Ceative Computing 6: Gie, J.W. 1980b. Modeling appoaches to bald eagle population dynamics. Wildlife Society Bulletin 8: Gie, J.W. and J.H. Baclay Dynamics of founde populations established by eintoduction. Pages in T.J. Cade, J.H. Endeson, C.G. Thelande, and C.M. White, eds. Peegine Falcon

106 PHV A Wokshop Pepaation 13 Populations: Thei Management and Recovey. The Peegine Fund, Boise, daho. Lacy, R.C, Flesness, N.R., and Seal, U.S Pueto Rican paot population viability analysis. Repot to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Sevice. Captive Beeding Specialist Goup, Species Suvival Commission, UCN, Apple Valley, Minnesota. ' ', ' Lacy, R.C. and T.W. Clak Population viability assessment of the easten baed bandicoot in Victoia. Pages in T.W. Clak and J.H. Seebeck (eels.), The Management and Consevation of Small Populations. Chicago Zoological Society, Bookfield, llinois. Lindenmaye, D.B., V.C. Thomas, R.C. Lacy, and T.W. Clak Population Viability Analysis (PVA): The concept and its applications, with a case study of Leadbeate's Possum, Gymnobelideus leadbeatei McCoy. Repot to the Foest and Timbe nquiy (Resouce Assessment Commission), Canbea, Austalia. 170 pp. Maguie, L.A., R.C. Lacy, R.J. Begg, and T.W. Clak An analysis of altenative stategies fo ecoveing the easten baed bandicoot in Victoia. Pages in T.W. Clak and J.H. Seebeck (eels.), The Management and Consevation of Small Populations. Chicago Zoological Society, Bookfield, llinois. Seal, U.S. and R.C. Lacy Floida panthe population viability analysis. Repot to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Sevice. Captive Beeding Specialist Goup, Species Suvival Commission, UCN, Apple Valley, Minnesota. Seal, U.S. and R.C. Lacy Floida Key Dee (Odocoileus viginianus claviwn) population viability assessment. Repot to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Sevice. Captive Beeding Specialist Goup, Species Suvival Commission, UCN, Apple Valley, Minnesota.

107 Wild/. Res., 1993, 20, 4565 ~ VORTEX: A Compute Simulation Model fo Population Viability Analysis j,, ' Robet C. Lacy Depatment of Consevation Biology, Chicago Zoological Society, Bookfield, llinois 60513, U.S.A. Abstact Population Viability Analysis (PYA) is the estimation of extinction pobabilities by analyses that incopoate identifiable theats to population suvival into models of the extinction pocess. Extinsic foces, such as habitat loss, ovehavesting, and competition o pedation by intoduced species, often lead to population decline. Although the taditional methods of wildlife ecology can eveal such deteministic tends, andom nuctuations that incease as populations become smalle can lead to extinction even of populations that have, on aveage, positive population gowth when below caying capacity. Compute simulation modelling povides a tool fo exploing the viability of population~ subjected to many complex, inteacting deteministic and andom pocesses. One such simulation model, VORTEX, has been used extensively by the Captive Beeding Specialist Goup (Species Suvival Commission, UCN), by wildlife agen.:ies, and by univesity classes. The algoithms, stuctue, assumptions and applications of VORTEX ae descibed in this pape. VORTEX models population pocesses as discete, sequential events, with pobabilistic outcomes. VoRTEX simulates bith and death pocesses and the tansmission of genes though the geneations by geneating andom numbes to detemine whethe each animal lives o dies, to detemine the numbe of pogeny poduced by each female each yea, and to detemine which of the two alleles at a genetic locus ae tansmitted fom each paent to each offsping. Fecundity is assumed to be independent of age afte an animal eaches epoductive age. Motality ates ae specified fo each peepoductive agesex class and fo epoductiveage animals. nbeeding depession is modelled as a decease in viability in inbed animals. The use has the option of modelling density dependence in epoductive ates. As a simple model of density dependence in suvival, a caying capacity is imposed by a pobabilistic tuncation of each age class if the population size exceeds the specified caying capacity. VORTEX can model linea tends in the caying capacity. VORTEX models envionmental vaiation by sampling bith ates, death ates, and the caying capacity fom binomial o nomal distibutions. Catastophes ae modelled as spoadic andom events that educe suvival and epoduction fo one yea. VoRTEX also allows the use to supplement o havest the population, and multiple subpopulations can be tacked, with usespecified migation among the units. VoRTEX outputs summay statistics on population gowth ates, the pobability of population extinction, the time to e.'ttinction, and the mean size and genetic vaiation in extant populations. VoRTEX necessaily makes many assumptions. The model it incopoates is most applicable to species with low fecundity and long lifespans, such as mammals, bids and eptiles. t integates the inteacting effects of many of the deteministic and stochastic pocesses that have an impact on the viability of small populations, poviding oppotunity fo moe complete analysis than.is possible by othe techniques. PVA by simulation modelling is an impotant tool fo identifying populations at isk of extinction, detemining the ugency of action, and evaluating options fo management. \. ntoduction Many wildlife populations that wee once widespead, numeous, and occupying contiguous habitat, have been educed to one o moe small, isolated populations. The causes of the oiginal decline ae often obvious, deteministic foces, such as ovehavesting, /93/010045$10.00

108 46 R. C. Lacy habitat destuction, and competition o pedation fom invasive intoduced species. Even if the oiginal causes of decline ac emoved, a small isolated population is vulneable to additional foces, intinsic to the dynamics of small populations, which may dive the population to extinction (Shaffe 1981; Soule 1987; Clak and Seebeck 1990). Of paticula impact on small populations ae stochastic pocesses. With the exception of aging, vitually all events in the life of an oganism ac stochastic. Mating, epoduction, gene tansmission between geneations, migation, disease and pedation can be descibed by pobability distibutions, with individual occuences being sampled fom these distibutions. Small samples display high vaiance aound the mean, so the fates of small wildlife populations ae often detemined moe by andom chance than by the mean bith and death ates that enect adaptations to thei envionment. Although many pocesses affecting small populations ae intinsically indeteminate, the aveage longtem fate of a population and the vaiance aound the expectation can be studied with compute simulation models. The use of simulation modelling,.often in conjunction with othe techniques, to exploe the dynamics of small populations has been temed Population Viability Analysis (PV A). PYA has been inceasingly used to help guide management of theatened species. The Resouce Assessment Commission of Austalia (1991) ecently ecommended that 'estimates of the size of viable populations and the isks of extinction unde multipleuse foesty pactices be an essential pat of consevation planning'. Lindenmaye eta/. (1993) descibe the use of compute modelling fo PYA, and discuss the stengths and weaknesses of the appoach as a tool fo wildlife management. n this pape, pesent the PV A pogam VORTEX and descibe its stuctue, assumptions and capabilities. VORTEX is pehaps the most widely used PYA simulation pogam, and thee ae numeous examples of its application in Austalia, the United States of Ameica and elsewhee.. The Dynamics of Small Populations The stochastic pocesses that have an impact on populations have been usefully categoised into demogaphic stochasticity, envionmental vaiation, catastophic events and genetic dift (Shaffe 1981). Demogaphic stochasticity is the andom nuctuation in the obseved bith ate, death ate and sex atio of a population even if the pobabilities of bith and death emain constant. On the assumption that biths and deaths and sex detemination ae stochastic sampling pocesses, the annual vaiations in numbes that ae bon, die, and ae of each sex can be specified fom statistical theoy and would follow binomial distibutions. Such demogaphic stochasticity will be impotant to population viability only in populations that ae smalle than a few tens of animals (Goodman 1987), in which cases the annual fequencies of bith and death events and the sex atios can deviate fa fom the means. The distibution of annual adult suvival ates obseved in the emnant population of whooping canes (Gus ameicana) (Miande eta/. 1993) is shown in Fig.. The innemost cuve appoximates the binomial distibution that descibes the demogaphic stochasticity expected when the pobability of suvival is 92 7% (mean of 45 nonoutlie yeas). Envionmental vaiation is the nuctuation in the pobabilities of bith and death that esults fom fluctuations in the envionment. Weathe, the pevalence of enzootic disease, the abundances of pey and pedatos, and the availability of nest sites o othe equied micohabitats can all vay, andomly o cyclically, ove time. The second naowest cuve on Fig. shows a nomal distibution that statistically fits the obseved fequency histogam of cane suvival in nonoutlie yeas. The diffeence between this cuve and the naowe distibution descibing demogaphic vaiation must be accounted fo by envionmental vaiation in the pobability of adult suvival. Catastophic vaiation is the exteme of envionmental vaiation, but fo both methodological and conceptual easons ae catastophic events ae analys.cd sepaately fom the moe typical annual o seasonal fluctuations. Catastophes such as epidemic disease,. i

109 VoRTEX: A Model fo Population Viability Analysis ! 1' ' i 0.10 U: "' &vlvaf Fig. 1. Fequency histogam of the popotion of whooping canes suviving each yea, The: boadest cuve: is the: nom1al distibution that most closely fits the oveall histogam. Statistically, this cuve fits the data pooly. The second highest and second boadest cuve is the nomal distibution that most closely fits the histogam, excluding the five leftmost bas (7 outlie 'catastophe' yeas). The naowest and tallest cuve is the nomal appoximation to the binomial distibution expected fom demogaphic stochasticity. The diffeence between the tallest and second tallest cuves is the vaiation in annual suvival due to envionmental vaiation. huicanes, lagescale fies, and Ooods ae outlies in the distibution of envionmental vaiation (e.g. five leftmost bas on Fig. 1). As a esult, they have quantitatively and sometimes qualitatively diffeent impacts on wildlife populations. (A foest fie is not just a vey hot day.) Such events often pecipitate the final decline to extinction (Simbeloff 1986, 1988). Fo example, one of two populations of whooping cane was decimated by a huicane in 1940 and soon afte went extinct (Doughty 'i89). The only emaining population of the blackfooted feet (Mustela nigipes) was being eliminated by an outbeak of distempe when the last 18 feets wee captued (Clak 1989). Genetic dift is the cumulative and nonadaptive fluctuation in allele fequencies esulting fom the andom sampling of genes in each geneation. This can impede the ecovey o acceleate the decline of wildlife populations fo seveal easons (Lacy 1993). nbeeding, not stictly a component of genetic dift but coelated with it in small populations, has been documented to cause loss of fitness in a wide vaiety of species, including vitually all sexually epoducing animals in which the effects of inbeeding have been caefully studied (Wight 1977; Falcone 1981; O'Bien and Evemann 1988; Ralls el of. 1988; Lacy el a/. 1993). Even if the immediate loss of fitness of inbed individuals is not lage, the loss of genetic vaiation that esults fom genetic dift may educe the ability of a population to adapt to futue changes in the envionment (Fishe 1958; Robetson 1960; Selande 1983). Thus, the effects of genetic dift and consequent loss of genetic vaiation in individuals and populations have a negative impact on demogaphic ates and incease susceptibility to envionmental petubations and catastophes. Reduced population gowth and geate Ouctuations in numbes in tun acceleate genetic dift (Cow and Kimua 1970). These synegistic destabilising effects of stochastic pocess on small populations of wildlife have been descibed as an 'extinction votex' (Gilpin and Soule 1986). The size below which a population is likely to be dawn into an extinction votex can be consideed a 'minimum _

110 \ 48 R. C. Lacy ; viable population' (MVP) (Seal and Lacy 1989), although Shaffe (1981) fist defined a MVP moe stingently as a population that has a 99% pobability of pesistence fo 1000 yeas. The estimation of MVPs o, moe geneally, the investigation of the pobability of extinction constitutes PVA (Gilpin and Soule 1986; Gilpin 1989; Shaffe 1990). Methods fo Analysing Population Viability An undestanding of the multiple, inteacting foces that contibute to extinction votices is a peequisite fo the study of extinctionecolonisation dynamics in natual populations inhabiting patchy envionments (Gilpin 1987), the management of small populations (Clak and Seebeck 1990), and the consevation of theatened wildlife (Shaffe 1981, 1990; Soule 1987; Mace and Lande 1991). Because demogaphic and genetic pocesses in small populations ae inheently unpedictable, the expected fates of wildlife populations can be descibed in tems of pobability distibutions of population size, time to extinction, and genetic vaiation. These distibutions can be obtained in any of thee ways: fom analytical models, fom empiical obsevation of the fates of populations of vaying size, o fom simulation models. As the pocesses detemining the dynamics of populations ae multiple and complex, thee ae few analytical fomulae fo descibing the pobability distibutions (e.g. Goodman 1987; Lande 1988; Bugmann and Gead 1990). These models have incopoated only few of the theatening pocesses. No analytical model exists, fo example, to descibe the combined effect of demogaphic stochasticity and loss of genetic vaiation on the pobability of population pesistence. A few studies of wildlife populations have povided empiical data on the elationship between population size and pobability of extinction (e.g. Belovsky 1987; Bege 1990; Thomas 1990), but pesently only odeofmagnitude estimates can be povided fo MVPs of vetebates (Shaffe 1987). Theatened species ae, by thei aity, unavailable and inappopiate fo the expeimental manipulation of population sizes and longtem monitoing of undistubed fates that would be necessay fo pecise empiical measuement of MVPs. Retospective analyses will be possible in some cases, but the function elating extinction pobability to population size will diffe among species, localities and times (Lindenmaye et a/. 1993). Modelling the Dynamics of Small Populations Because of the lack of adequate empiical data o theoetical and analytical models to allow pediction of the dynamics of populations of theatened species, vaious biologists have tuned to Monte Calo compute simulation techniques fo PVA. By andomly sampling fom defined pobability distibutions, compute pogams can simulate the multiple, inteacting events that occu duing the lives of oganisms and that cumulatively detemine the fates of populations. The focus is on detailed and explicit modelling of the foces impinging on a given population, place, and cime of inteest, athe than on delineation of ules (which may not exist) that apply geneally to most wildlife populations. Compute pogams available to PVA include SPGPC (Gie J980a, 1980b), GAPPS (Hais eta/. 1986), RAMAS (Feson and Ak~akaya 1989; Akpkaya and Feson 1990; Feson 1990), FOR POP (Possingham et a/ ), ALEX (Possinghan et a/. 1992), and SMPOP (Lacy et a/. 1989; Lacy and Clak 1990) and its descendant VORTEX. S!MPOP was developed in 1989 by conveting the algoithms of the pogam SPGPC (witten by James W. Gie of Noth Dakota State Univesity) fom BASC to the c pogamming language. StMPOP was used fist in a PV A wokshop oganised by the Species Suvival Commission's Captive Beeding Specialist Goup (UCN), the United States Fish and Wildlife Sevice, and the Pueto Rico Depatment of Natual Resouces to assist in planning and assessing ecovey effots fo the Pueto Rican cested toad (Peltophyne lemu). SMPOP was subsequently used in PVA modelling of othe species theatened _...

111 VORTEX: A Model fo Populalion Viabilily Analysis 49 ' ~,! ' with extinction, undegoing modification with each application to allow incopoation of additional theatening pocesses. The simulation pogam was enamed VORTEX (in efeence to the extinction votex) when the capability of modelling genetic pocesses was implemented in n 1990, a vesion allowing modelling of multiple populations was biefly named VORTCES. The only vesion still suppoted, with all capabilities of each pevious vesion, is VORTEX Vesion 5.1. VoRTEX has been used in PVA to help guide consevation and management of many species including the Pueto Rican paot (Amazona vi/lata) (Lacy el a/. 1989), the Javan hinoceos (Rhinoceos sondaicus) (Seal and Foose 1989), the Floida panthe (Felis concolo coyi) (Seal and Lacy 1989), the easten baed bandicoot (Peameles gunnii) (Lacy and Clak 1990; Maguie et a/. 1990), the lion tamains (Leontopithecus osalia ssp.) (Seal et a/. 1990), the bushtailed ockwallaby (Peloga/e penicillata penicillala) (Hill 1991), the mountain pygmypossum (Buamys pavus), Leadbeate's possum (Gymnobelideus leadbealei), the longfooted potooo (Poloous /ongipes), the oangebellied paot (Neophema chysogaste) and the helmeted honeyeate (Lichenoslomus melanops cassidix) (Clake/ a/. 1991), the whooping cane (Gus ameicana) (Miande el a/. 1993), the Tana Rive cested mangabey (Cecocebus galeilus ga/eius) and the Tana Rive ed colobus (Colobus badius ujomilatus) (Seal el a/. 1991), and the black hinoceos (Diceos biconis) (Foose el a/. 1992). n some of these PV As, modelling with VORTEX has made clea the insufficiency of past management plans to secue the futue of the species, and altenative stategies wee poposed, assessed and implemented. Fo example, the multiple theats to the Floida panthe in its existing habitat wee ecognised as pobably insumountable, and a captive beeding effot has been initiated fo the pupose of secuing the gene pool and poviding animals fo elease in aeas of fome habitat. PYA modelling with VORTEX has often identified a single theat to which a species is paticulaly vulneable. The small but gowing population of Pueto Rican paots was assessed to be secue, except fo the isk of population decimation by huicane. Recommendations wee made to make available secue shelte fo captive paots and to move some of the bids to a site distant fom the wild flock, in ode to minimise the damage that could occu in a catastophic stom. These ecommended actions wee only patly implemented when, in late 1989, a huicane killed many of the wild paots. The emaining population of about 350 Tana Rive ed colobus wee detemined by PYA to be so fagmented that demogaphic and genetic pocesses within the 10 subpopulations destabilised population dynamics. Ceation of habitat coidos may be necessay to pevent extinction of the taxon. n some cases, PV A modelling has been eassuing to manages: analysis of black hinos in Kenya indicated that many of the populations within sanctuaies wee ecoveing steadily. Some could soon be used to povide animals fo eestablishment o supplementation of populations peviously eliminated by poaching. Fo some species, available data wee insufficient to allow definitive PVA with VORTEX. n such cases, the at!empt at PVA modelling has made appaent the need fo moe data on population tends and pocesses, theeby helping to justify and guide eseach effots. Desciption of VORTEX Oveview The VORTEX compute simulation model is a Monte Calo simulation of the effects of deteministic foces, as well as demogaphic, envionmental and genetic stochastic events, on wildlife populations. VORTEX models population dynamics as discete, sequential events that occu accoding to pobabilities that ae andom vaiables, following usespecified distibutions. The input paametes used by VORTEX ae summaised in the fist pat of the sample output given in the Appendix. VORTEX simulates a population by stepping though a seies of events that descibe an annual cycle of a typical sexually epoducing, diploid oganism: mate selection, _

112 50 R. C. L.cy epoduction, motality, incement of age by one yea, migation among populations, emovals, supplementation, and then tuncation (if necessay) to the caying capacity. The pogam was designed to model longlived species with low fecundity, such as mammals, bids and eptiles. Although it could and has been used in modelling highly fecund vetebates and invetebates, it is awkwad to use in such cases as it equies complete specification of the pecentage of females poducing each possible clutch size. Moeove, compute memoy limitations often hampe such analyses. Although VORTEX iteates life events on an annual cycle, a use could model 'yeas' that ae othe than 12 months' duation. The simulation of the population is itself iteated to eveal the distibution of fates that the population might expeience.. Demogaphic Stochasticity VORTEX models demogaphic stochasticity by detemining the occuence of pobabilistic events such as epoduction, litte size, sex detemination and death with a pseudoandom numbe geneato. The pobabilities of motality and epoduction ae sexspecific and pedetemined fo each age class up to the age of beeding. t is assumed that epoduction and suvival pobabilities emain constant fom the age of fist beeding until a specified uppe limit to age is eached. Sex atio at bith is modelled with a usespecified constant pobability of an offsping being male. Fo each life event, if the andom value sampled fom the unifom Q1 distibution falls below the pobability fo that yea, the event is deemed to have occued, theeby simulating a binomial pocess. The souce code used to geneate andom numbes unifomly distibuted between 0 and was obtained fom Maie (1991}, accoding to the algoithm of Kikpatick and Stoll (1981). Random deviates fom binomial distibutions, with mean p and standad deviation s, ae obtained by fist detemining the integal numbe of binomial tials, N, that would poduce the value of s closest to the specified value, accoding to. N=p(lp)ls 2 N binomial tials ae then simulated by sampling fom the unifom 01 distibution to obtain the desied esult, the fequency o popotion of successes. f the value of N detemined fo a desied binomial distibution is lage than 25, a nomal appoximation is used in place of the binomial distibution. This nomal appoximation must be tuncated at 0 and at to allow use in defining pobabilities, although, with such lage values of N, s is small elative to p and the tuncation would be invoked only aely. To avoid intoducing bias with this tuncation, the nomal appoximation to the binomial (when used) is tuncated symmetically aound the mean. The algoithm fo geneating andom numbes fom a unit nomal distibution follows Latou (1986). VORTEX can model monogamous o polygamous mating systems. n a monogamous system, a elative scacity of beeding ;nales may limit epoduction by females. n polygamous o monogamous models, the use can specify the popotion of the adult males in the beeding pool. Males ae andomly eassigned to the beeding pool each yea of the simulation, and all males in the beeding pool have an equal chance of siing offsping. The 'caying capacity', o the uppe limit fo population size within a habitat, must be specified by the use. VoRTEX imposes the caying capacity via a pobabilistic tuncation wheneve the population exceeds the caying capacity. Each 2nimal in the population has an equal pobability of being emoved by this tuncation. Envionmental Vaiation VORTEX can model annual fluctuations in bith and death ates and in caying capacity as might esult fom envionmental vaiation. To model envionmental vaiation, each,_ '

113 .,, j J l,, _. ' VoRTEX: A Model fo Population Viability Analysis 51 demogaphic paamete is ass;gned a distibution with a mean and standad deviation that is specified by the use. Annual fluctuations in pobabilities of epoduction and motality ae modelled as binomial distibutions. Envionmental vaiation in caying capacity is modelled as a nomal distibution. The vaiance acoss yeas in the fequencies of biths and deaths esulting fom the simulation model (and in eal populations) will have two components: the demogaphic vaiation esulting fom a binomial sampling aound the mean fo each yea, and additional fluctuations due to envionmental vaiation and catastophes (see Fig. and section on The Dynamics of Small P0pulations, above). Data on annual vaiations in bith and death ates ae impotant in detemining the pobability of extinction, as they influence population stability (Goodman 1987). Unfotunately, such field infomation is aely available (but see Fig. 1). Sensitivity testing, the examination of a ange of values when the pecise value of a paamete is unknown, can help to identify whethe the unknown paamete is impotant in the dynamics of a population. Catastophes Catastophes ae modelled in VORTEX as andom events that occu with specified pobabilities. Any numbe of types of catastophes can be modelled. A catastophe will occu if a andomly geneated numbe between zeo and one is less than the pobability of occuence. Following a catastophic event, the chances of suvival and successful beeding fo that simulated yea ae multiplied by seveity factos. Fo example, foest fies might occu once in 50 yeas, on aveage, killing 25% of animals, and educing beeding by suvivos by 50% fo the yea. Such a catastophe would be modelled as a andom event with 0 02 pobability of occuence each yea, and seveity factos of 0 75 fo suvival and 0 50 fo epoduction. Geneic Pocesses Genetic dift is modelled in VORTEX by simulation of the tansmission of alleles at a hypothetical locus. At the beginning of the simulation, each animal is assigned two unique alleles. Each offsping is andomly assigned one of the alleles fom each paent. nbeeding depession is modelled as a loss of viability duing the fist yea of inbed animals. The impacts of inbeeding ac detemined by using one of two models available within VORTEX: a Recessive Lethals model o a Heteosis model. n the Recessive Lethals model, each founde stats with one unique ecessive lethal allele and a unique, dominant nonlethal allele. This model appoximates the effect of inbeeding if each individual in the stating population had one ecessive lethal allele in its genome. The fact that the simulation pogam assumes that all the lethal alleles ae at the same locus has a vey mino impact on the pobability that an individual will die because of homozygosity fo one of the lethal alleles. n the model, homozygosity fo diffeent lethal alleles ae mutually exclusive events, wheeas in a multilocus model an individual could be homozygous fo seveal lethal alleles simultaneously. By vitue of the death of individuals that ae homozygous fo lethal alleles, such alleles would be emoved slowly by natual selection duing the geneations of a simulation. This educes the genetic vaiation pesent in the population elative to the case with no inbeeding depession, but also diminishes the subsequent pobability that inbed individuals will be homozygous fo a lethal allele. This model gives an optimistic eflection of the impacts of inbeeding on many species, as the median numbe of lethal equivalents pe diploid genome obseved fo mammalian populations is about thee (Ralls et a/. 1988). The expession of fully ecessive deleteious alleles in inbed oganisms is not the only genetic mechanism that has been poposed as a cause of inbeeding depession. Some o._

114 52 R. C. Lacy most of the effects of inbeeding may be a consequence of supeio fitness of heteozygotes (heteozygote advantage o 'heteosis'). n the Heteosis model, all homozygotes have educed fitness compaed with heteozygotes. Juvenile suvival is modelled accoding to the logaithmic model developed by Moton et a/. (1956): lns=a BF in which Sis suvival, F is the inbeeding coefficient, A is the logaithm of suvival in the absence of inbeeding, and B is a measue of the ate at which suvival deceases with inbeeding. B is temed the numbe of 'lethal equivalents' pe haploid genome. The numbe of lethal equivalents pe diploid genome, 2B, estimates the numbe of lethal alleles pe individual in the population if all deleteious effects of inbeeding wee due to ecessive lethal alleles. A population in which inbeeding depession is one lethal equivalent pe diploid genome may have one ecessive lethal allele pe individual (as in the Recessive Lethals model, above), it may have two ecessive alleles pe individual, each of which confe a 50% decease in suvival, o it may have some othe combination of ecessive deleteious alleles that equate in effect with one lethal allele pe individual. Unlike the situation with fully ecessive deleteious alleles, natual selection does not emove deleteious alleles at heteotic loci because all alleles ae deleteious when homozygous and beneficial when pesent in heteozygous combination with othe alleles. Thus, unde the Heteosis model, the impact of inbeeding on suvival does not diminish duing epeated geneations of inbeeding. Unfotunately, fo elatively few species ae data available to allow estimation of the effects of inbeeding, and the magnitude of these effects vaies consideably among species (Falcone 1981; Ralls eta/. 1988; Lacy eta/. 1993). Moeove, whethe a Recessive Lethals model o a Heteosis model bette descibes the undelying mechanism of inbeeding depession and theefoe the esponse to epeated geneations of inbeeding is not wellknown (Bewe eta/. 1990), and could be detemined empiically only fom beeding studies that span many geneations. Even without detailed pedigee data fom which to estimate the numbe of letha! equivalents in a population and the undelying natue of the genetic load (ecessive alleles o heteosis), applications of PV A must make assumptions about the effects of inbeeding on the population being studied. n some cases, it might be consideed appopiate to assume that an inadequately studied species would espond to inbeeding in accod with the median (3 14 lethal equivalents pe diploid) epoted in the suvey by Ralls et a/. (1988). n othe cases, thee might be eason to make moe optimistic assumptions (pehaps the lowe quatile, 0 90 lethal equivalents), o moe pessimistic assumptions (pehaps the uppe quatile, 5 62 lethal equivalents). Deteministic Pocesses VORTEX can incopoate seveal deteministic pocesses. Repoduction can be specified 10 be densitydependent. The function elating the popotion of adult females beeding each yea to the total population size is modelled as a fouthode polynomial, which can povide a close fit to most plausible densitydependence cuves. Thus, eithe positive population esponses to lowdensity o negative esponses (e.g. Allee effects), o moe complex elationships, can be modelled. Populations can be supplemented o havested fo any numbe of yeas in each simulation. Havest may be culling o emoval of animals fo tanslocation to anothe (unmodelled) population. The numbes of additions and emovals ae specified accoding to the age and sex of animals. Tends in the caying capacity can also be modelled in VORTEX, specified as an annual pecentage change. These changes ac modelled as linea, athe than geometic, inceases o deceases. _

115 ~! ) '. ' VoRTEX: A Model fo Population Viability Analysis 53 Migation among Populations VORTEX can model up to 20 populations, with possibly distinct population paametes. Each paiwise migation ate is specified as the pobability of an individual moving fom one population to anothe. This pobability is independent of the age and sex. Because of betweenpopulation migation and managed supplementation, populations can be ecoloniscd. VORTEX tacks the dynamics of local extinctions and ecolonisations though the simulation. Output VORTEX outputs () pobability of extinction at specified intevals (e.g., evey 10 yeas duing a 100yea simulation), (2) median time to extinction if the population went extinct in at least 50% of the simulations, (3) mean time to extinction of those simulated populations that became extinct, and (4) mean size of, and genetic vaiation within, extant populations (sec Appendix and Lindenmayc et a!. 1993). Standad deviations acoss simulations and standad eos of the mean ae epoted fo population size and the measues of genetic vaiation. Unde the assumption that extinction of independently eplicated populations is a binomial pocess, the standad eo of the pobability of extinction (S ) is epoted by VORTEX as SE(p)=l(px(lp)ln), in which the fequency of extinction was p ove n simulated populations. Demogaphic and genetic statistics ac calculated and epoted fo each subpopulation and fo the metapopulation. Availability of the VORTEX Simulation Pogam Vo"RTEX Vesion 5.1 is witten in the C pogamming language and compiled with the Lattice 80286C Development System (Lattice nc.) fo use on micocomputes using the MSDOS (Micosoft Cop.) opeating system. Copies of the compiled pogam and a manual fo its use ae available fo nominal distibution costs fom the Captive Beeding Specialist Goup (Species Suvival Commission, UCN), Johnny Cake Ridge Road, Apple Valley, Minnesota 55124, U.S.A. The pogam has been tested by many wokes, but cannot be guaanteed to be eofee. Each use etains esponsibility fo ensuing that the vogam docs what is intended fo each analysis. Sequence of Pogam flow () The seed fo the andom numbe geneato is initialised with the numbe of seconds elapsed since the beginning of the 20th centuy. (2) The use is pompted fo input and output devices, population paametes, duation of simulation, and numbe of inteations. (3) The maximum allowable population size (necessay fo peventing memoy ove now) is calculated as Nmax=(K +3s) X(l +L). in which K is the maximum caying capacity (caying capacity can be specified to change linealy fo a numbe of yeas in a simulation, so the maximum caying capacity can be, geate than the initial caying capacity), s is the annual envionmental vaiation in the caying capacity expessed as a standad deviation, and L is the specified maximum litte size. t is theoetically possible, but vey unlikely, that a simulated population will exceed the calculated Nmox f this occus then the pogam will give an eo message and abot..!

116 54 R. C. Lacy (4) Memoy is allocated fo data aays. f insufficient memoy is available fo data aays then Nmax is adjusted downwad to the size that can be accommodated within the available memoy and a waning message is given. n this case it is possible that the analysis may have to be teminated because the simulated population exceeds Nma: Because Nmax is often sevealfold geate than the likely maximum population size in a simulation, a waning it has been adjusted downwad because of limiting memoy often will not hampe the analyses. Except fo limitations imposed by the size of the compute memoy (VORTEX can use extended memoy, if available), the only limit to the size of the analysis is that no moe than 20 populations exchanging migants can be simulated. (5) The expected mean gowth ate of the population is calculated fom mean bith.and death ates that have been enteed. Algoithms follow cohot lifetable analyses (Ricklefs 1979). Geneation time and the expected stable age distibution ae also estimated. Lifetable estimations assume no limitation by caying capacity, no limitation of mates, and no loss of fitness due to inbeeding depession, and the estimated intinsic gowth ate assumes that the population is at the stable age distibution. The effects of catastophes ae incopoated into the lifetable analysis by using bith and death ates that ae weighted aveages of the values in yeas with and without catastophes, weighted by the pobability of a catastophe occuing o not occuing. (6) teative simulation of the population poceeds via steps 726 below. Fo exploatoy modelling, 100 iteations ae usually sufficient to eveal goss tends among sets of simulations with diffeent input paametes. Fo moe pecise examination of population behaviou unde vaious scenaios, 1000 o moe simulations should be used to minimise standad eos aound mean esults. (7} The stating population is assigned an age and sex stuctue. The use can specify the exact agesex stuctue of the stating population, o can specify an initial population size and equest that the population be distibuted accoding to the stable age distibution calculated fom the life table. ndividuals in the stating population ae assumed to be unelated. Thus, inbeeding can occu only in second and late geneations. (8) Two unique alleles at a hypothetical genetic locus ae assigned to each individual in the stating population and to each individual supplemented to the population duing the simulation. VORTEX theefoe uses an infinite alleles model of genetic vaiation. The subsequent fate of genetic vaiation is tacked by epoting the numbe of extant alleles each yea, the expected heteozygosity o gene divesity, and the obseved heteozygosity. The expected heteozygosity, deived fom the HadyWeinbeg equilibium, is given by... H,= L.(p/), in which p 1 is the fequency of allele i in the population. The obseved heteozygosity is simply the popotion of the individuals in the simulated population that ae heteozygous. Because of the stating assumption of two unique alleles pe founde, the initial population has an obseved heteozygosity of 0 at the hypothetical locus and only inbed animals can become homozygous. Popotional loss of heteozygosity by means of andom genetic dift is independent of the initial heteozygosity and allele fequencies of a population (assuming that the initial value was not zeo} (Cow and Kimua 1970), so the expected heteozygosity emaining in a simulated population is a useful metic of genetic decay fo compaison acoss scenaios and populations. The mean obseved heteozygosity epoted by VORTEX is the mean inbeeding coefficient of the population. (9) The use specifies one of thee options fo modelling the effect of inbeeding: (a) no effect of inbeeding on fitness, that is, all alleles ae selectively neutal, (b) each founde individual has one unique lethal and one unique nonlethal allele (Recessive Lethals option), o (c) fistyea suvival of each individual is exponentially elated to its inbeeding coefficient (Heteosis option). The fist case is clealy an optimistic one, as almost all diploid.

117 . VoRTEX: A Model fo Popula1ion Viabilily Analysis 55, (13) populations studied intensively have shown deleteious effects of inbeeding on a vaiety of fitness components (Wight 1977; Falcone 1981). Each of the two models of inbeeding depession may also be optimistic, in that inbeeding is assumed to have an impact only on fistyea suvival. The Heteosis option allows, howeve, fo the use to specify the seveity of inbeeding depession on juvenile suvival. (10) Yeas ae iteated via steps 1125 below. () The pobabilities of females poducing each possible litte size ae adjusted to account fo density dependence of epoduction (if any). (12) Bith ate, suvival ates and caying capacity fo the yea ae adjusted to model envionmental vaiation. Envionmental vaiation is assumed to follow binomial distibutions fo bith and death a~es and a nomal distibution fo caying capacity, with mean ates and standad deviations specified by the use. At the outset of each yea a andom numbe is dawn fom the specified binomial distibution to detemine the pecentage of females poducing littes. The distibution of litte sizes among those females that do beed is maintained constant. Anothe andom numbe is dawn fom a specified binomial distibution to model the envionmental vaiation in motality ates. f envionmental vaiations in epoduction and motality ae chosen to be coelated, the andom numbe used to specify motality ates fo the yea is chosen to be the same pecentile of its binomial distibution as was the numbe used to specify epoductive ate. Othewise, a new andom numbe is dawn to specify the deviation of age and sexspecific motality ates fo thei means. Envionmental vaiation acoss yeas in motality ates is always foced to be coelated among age and sex classes. The caying capacity (K) of the yea is detemined by fist inceasing o deceasing the caying capacity at yea 1 by an amount specified by the use to account fo linea changes ove time. Envionmental vaiation in K is then imposed by dawing a andom numbe fom a nomal distibution with the specified values fo mean and standad deviation. Bith ates and suvival ates fo the yea ae adjusted to model any catastophes detemined to have occued in that yea. (14) Beeding males ae selected fo the yea. A male of beeding age is placed into the pool of potential beedes fo that yea if a andom numbe dawn fo that male is less than the popotion of beedingage males specified to be beeding. (15) Fo each female of beeding age, a mate is dawn at andom fom the pool of beeding males fo that yea. The Size of the litte poduced by that pai is detemined by compaing the pobabilities of each potential litte size (including litte size of 0, no beeding) to a andomly dawn numbe. The offsping ae poduced and assigned a sex by compaison of a andom numbe to the specified sex atio at bith. Offsping ae assigned, at andom, one allele at the hypothetical genetic locus fom each paent. (16) f the Heteosis option is chosen fo modelling inbeeding depession, the genetic kinship of each new offsping to each othe living animal in the population is detemined. The kinship between a new animal, A, and anothe existing animal, B is in which fij is the kinship between animals i and j, M is the mothe of A, and P is the fathe of A. The inbeeding coefficient of each animal is equal to the kinship between its paents, F=fMP and the kinship of an animal to itself isfaa=0 5x(l+F). [See Ballou (1983) fo a detailed desciption of this method fo calculating inbeeding coefficients.] {17) The suvival of each animal is detemined by compaing a andom numbe to the suvival pobability fo that animal. n the absence of inbeeding depession, the suvival f pobability is given by the age and sexspecific suvival ate fo that yea. f the Heteosis model of inbeeding depession is used and an individual is inbed, the suvival pobability is multiplied by ebf in which b is the numbe of lethal equivalents pe haploid genome.

118 56 R. C. Lacy f the Recessive Letha s model is used, all offsping that ae homozygous fo a lethal allele ae killed. ( 18) The age of each animal is incemented by, and any animal exceeding the maximum age is killed. (19) f moe than one population is being modelled, migation among populations occus stochastically with specified pobabilities. (20) f population havest is to occu that yea, the numbe of havested individuals of each age and sex class ae chosen at andom fom those available and emoved. f the numbe to be emoved do not exist fo an agesex class, vo~tex continues but epots that havest was incomplete. (21) Dead animals ae emoved fom the compute memoy to make space fo futue geneations. (22) f population supplementation is to occu in a paticula yea, new individuals of the specified age class ae ceated. Each immigant is assigned two unique alleles, one of which will be a ecessive lethal in the Recessive Lethals model of inbeeding depession. Each immigant is assumed to be genetically unelated to all othe individuals in the population. (23) The population gowth ate is calculated as the atio of the population size in the cuent yea to the pevious yea. (24) f the population size (N) exceeds the caying capacity (K) fo that yea, additional motality is imposed acoss all age and sex classes. The pobability of each animal dying duing this caying capacity tuncation is set to (N K)l N, so that the expected population size afte the additional motality is K. (25) Summay statistics on population size and genetic vaiation ae tallied and epoted. A simulated population is detemined to be extinct if one of the sexes has no epesentatives. (26) Final population size and genetic vaiation ae detemined fo the simulation. (27) Summay statistics on population size, genetic vaiation, pobability of extinction, and mean population gowth ate, ae calculated acoss iteations and pinted out. Assumptions Undepinning VoRTEX ll is impossible to simulate the complete ange of complex pocesses that can have an impact on wild populations. As a esult thee ae necessaily a ange of mathematical and biological assumptions that undepin any PYA pogam. Some of the moe impotant assumptions in VORTEX include the following. () Suvival pobabilities ae density independent when population size is less than caying capacity. Additional motality imposed when the population exceeds K affects all age and sex classes equally. (2) The elationship between changes in population size and genetic vaiability ae examined fo only one locus. Thus, potentially complex inteactions between genes located on the same chomosome (linkage disequilibium) ae ignoed. Such inteactions ae typically associated with genetic dift in vey small populations, but it is unknown if, o how, they would affect population viability. (3) All animals of epoductive age have an equal pobability of beeding. This ignoes the likelihood that some animals within a population may have a geate pobability of beeding successfully, and beeding moe often, than othe individuals. f beeding is not at andom among those in the beeding pool, then decay of genetic vaiation and inbeeding will occu moe apidly than in the model.._ : J

119 , t ~ j, ' ~ ~.,, VoRTEX: A Model fo Population Viability Analysis 57 (4) The lifehistoy attibutes of a population (bith, death, migation, havesting, supplementation) ae modelled as a sequence of discete and theefoe seasonal events. Howeve, such events ae often continuous though time and the model ignoes the possibility that they may be aseasonal o only patly seasonal. (5) The genetic effects of inbeeding on a population ae detemined in VORTEX by using one of two possible models: the Recessive Lethals model and the Heteosis model. Both models have attibutes likely to be typical of some populations, but these may vay within and between species (Bewe et al. 1990). Given this, it is pobable that the impacts of inbeeding will fall between the effects of these two models. nbeeding is assumed to depess only one component of fitness: fistyea suvival. Effects on epoduction could be incopoated into this component, but longetem impacts such as inceased disease susceptibility o deceased ability to adapt to envionmental change ae not modelled. (6) The pobabilities of epoduction and motality ae constant fom the age of fist beeding until an animal eaches the maximum longevity. This assumes that animals continue to beed until they die. (7) A simulated catastophe will have an effect on a population only in the yea that the event occus. (8) Migation ates among populations ae independent of age and sex. (9) Complex, intespecies inteactions ae not modelled, except in that such community dynamics might contibute to andom envionmental vaiation in demogaphic paametes. Fo example, cyclical nuctuations caused by pedatopey inteactions cannot be modelled by VORTEX. Discussion Uses and Abuses of Simulation Modelling fo PVA Compute simulation modelling is a tool that can allow cude estimation of the pobability of population extinction, and the mean population size and amount of genetic divesity, fom data on divese inteacting pocesses. These pocesses ae too complex to be integated intuitively and no analytic solutions pesently, o ae likely to soon, exist. PVA modelling focuses on the specifics of a population, consideing the paticula habitat, theats, tends, and time fame of inteest, and can only be as good as the data and the assumptions input to the model (Lindenmaye e/ a/. 1993). Some aspects of population dynamics ae not modelled by VORTEX no by any othe pogam now available. n paticula, models of singlespecies dynamics, such as VORTEX, ae inappopiate fo use on species whose fates ae stongly detemined by inteactions with othe species that ae in tun undegoing complex (and pehaps synegistic) population dynamics. Moeove, VORTEX docs not model many conceivable and pehaps impotant inteactions among vaiables. Fo example, loss of habitat might cause seconday changes in epoduction, motality, and migation ates, but ongoing tends in these paametes cannot be simulated with VORTEX. t is impotant to stess that PVA does not pedict in geneal what will happen to a population; PVA foecasts the likely effects only of those factos incopoated into the model. Yet, the use of even simplified compute models fo PVA can povide moe accuate pedictions about population dynamics than the even moe cude techniques available peviously, such as calculation of expected population gowth ates fom life tables. Fo the pupose of estimating extinction pobabilities, methods that assess only deteministic factos ae almost cetain to be inappopiate, because populations nea extinction will commonly be so small that andom pocesses dominate deteministic ones. The suggestion by Mace and Lande (1991) that population viability be assessed by the application of simple ules (e.g., a taxon be consideed Endangeed if the total effective population size is below 50 o the

120 58 R. C. Lacy total census size below 250) should be followed only if knowledge is insufficient to allow moe accuate quantitative analysis. Moeove, such peliminay judgments, while often impotant in stimulating appopiate coective measues, should signal, not obviate, the need fo moe extensive investigation and analysis of population pocesses, tends and theats. Seveal good population simulation models ae available fo PVA. They diffe in capabilities, assumptions and ease of application. The ease of application is elated to the numbe of simplifying assumptions and invesely elated to the flexibility and powe of the model. t is unlikely that a single o even a few simulation models will be appopiate fo all PVAs. The VORTEX pogam has some capabilities not found in many othe population simulation pogams, but is not as flexible as ae some othes (e.g., GAPPS; Hais et a/. 1986). VORTEX is usefiendly and can be used by those with elatively little undestanding of population biology and extinction pocesses, which is both an advantage and a disadvantage. Testing Simulation Models Because many population pocesses ae stochastic, a PVA can neve specify what will happen to a population. Rathe, PVA can povide estimates of pobability distibutions descibing possible fates of a population. The fate of a given population may happen to fall at the exteme tail of such a distibution even if the pocesses and pobabilities ae assessed pecisely. Theefoe, it will often be impossible to test empiically the accuacy of PVA esults by monitoing of one o a few theatened populations of inteest. Pesumably, if a population followed a couse that was well outside of the ange of possibilities pedicted by a model, that model could be ejected as inadequate. Often, howeve, the ange of plausible fates geneated by PVA is quite boad. Simulation pogams can be checked fo intenal consistency. Fo example, in the absence of inbeeding depession and othe confounding effects, does the simulation model pedict an aveage longtem gowth ate simila to that detemined fom a lifetable calculation? Beyond this, some confidence in the accuacy of a simulation model can be obtained by compaing obseved fluctuations in population numbes to those geneated by the model, theeby compaing a data set consisting of tens to hundeds of data points to the esults of the model. Fo example, fom 1938 to 1991, the wild population of whooping canes had gown at a mean exponential ate,, of 0 040, with annual fluctuations in the gowth ate, SD (), of (Miande et a/. 1993). Lifetable analysis pedicted an of Simulations using VORTEX pedicted an of into the futue, with a SD () of The lowe gowth ate pojected by the stochastic model eflects the effects of inbeeding and pehaps imbalanced sex atios among beedes in the simulation, factos that ae not consideed in deteministic lifetable calculations. Moeove, lifetable analyses use mean bith and death ates to calculate a single estimate of the population gowth ate. When bith and death ates. ae fluctuating, it is moe appopiate to aveage the population gowth ates calculated sepaately fom bith and death ates fo each yea. This mean gowth ate would be lowe than the gowth ate estimated fom mean lifetable values. When the simulation model was stated with the 18 canes pesent in 1938, it pojected a population size in 1991 (N±SD== 151 ± 123) almost exactly the same as that obseved (N== 146). The lage vaiation in population size acoss simulations, howeve, indicates that vey diffeent fates (including extinction) wee almost equally likely. The model slightly undeestimated the annual fluctuations in population gowth [model SD () ==0 112 v. actual SD () =0 141). This may eflect a lack of full incopoation of all aspects of stochasticity into the model, o it may simply eflect the sampling eo inheent in stochastic phenomena. Because the data input to the model necessaily deive fom analysis of past tends, such etospective analysis should be viewed as a check of consistency, not as poof that the model coectly descibes cuent population dynamics. Poviding anothe confi _

121 j VORTEX: A Model fo Population Viability Analysis 59 i ~! ' / mation of consistency, both deteministic calculations and the simulation model poject an ovewinteing population of whooping canes consisting of 12% juveniles (less than yea of age), while the obseved fequency of juveniles at the winteing gounds in Texas has aveaged 13%. Convincing evidence of the accuacy, pecision and usefulness of PYA simulation models would equie compaison of model pedictions to the distibution of fates of many eplicate populations. Such a test pobably cannot be conducted on any endangeed species, but could and should be examined in expeimental nonendangeed populations. Once simulation models ae detemined to be sufficiently desciptive of population pocesses, they can guide management of theatened and endangeed species (see above and Undenmaye eta/. 1993). The use of PYA modelling as a tool in an adaptive management famewok (Clak et a/. 1990) can lead to inceasingly effective species ecovey effots as bette data and bette models allow moe thoough analyses. Diections fo Futue Development of PV A Models The PYA simulation pogams pesently available model life histoies as a seies of discete (seasonal) events, yet many species beed and die thoughout much of the yea. Continuoustime models would be moe ealistic and could be developed by simulating the time between lifehistoy events as a andom vaiable. Whethe continuoustime models would significantly impove the pecision of population viability estimates is unknown. Even moe ealistic models might teat some lifehistoy events (e.g., gesta_tion, lactation) as stages of specified duation, athe than as instantaneous events. Most PYA simulation pogams wee designed to model longlived, low fecundity (Kselected) species such as mammals, bids and eptiles. Relatively little wok has been devoted to developing models fo shotlived, highfecundity (selected) species such as many amphibians and insects. Yet, the viability of populations of selected species may be highly affected by stochastic _phenomena, and selected species may have much geate minimum viable populations than do most Kselected species. Assuing viability of Kselected species in a community may also affod adequate potection fo selected species, howeve, because of the often geate habitataea equiements of lage vetebates. Populations of selected species ae pobably less affected by intinsic demogaphic stochasticity because lage numbes of pogeny will minimise andom fluctuations, but they ae moe affected by envionmental vaiations acoss space and time. PYA models designed fo selected species would pobably model fecundity as a continuous distibution, athe than as a completely specified discete distibution of litte o clutch sizes; they might be based on lifehistoy stages athe than timeincement ages; and they would equie moe detailed and accuate desciption of envionmental fluctuations than might be equied fo modelling Kselected species. The ange of PYA compute simulation models becoming available is impotant because the diffeent assumptions of the models povide capabilities fo modelling divese life histoies. Decause PYA models always simplify the life histoy of a species, and because the assumptions of no model ae likely to match exactly ou best undestanding of the dynamics of a population of inteest, it will often be valuable to conduct PYA modelling with seveal simulation pogams and to compae the esults. Moeove, no compute pogam can be guaanteed to be fee of eos. Thee is a need fo eseaches to compae esults fom diffeent PYA models when applied to the same analysis, to detemine how the diffeent assumptions affect conclusions and to cossvalidate algoithms and compute code. Acknowledgments James W. Gie made available his simulation pogam, SPGPC, which povided many of the algoithms on which the fist vesion of VORTEX (StMPOP) was based. thank Ulysses S. Seal, Thomas J. Foose, Jon Ballou, Nathan R. Flesness, Tim W. Clak, Gay Dackhousc, _

122 60 R. C. Lacy David Lindenmaye, Simon Benne!!, and many of the staff of the Depatment of Consevation and Envionment, Victoia, Austalia, fo many helpful comments on VORTEX and PYA. Tim W. Clak, David Linden maye and two anonymous eviewes povided valuable citiques of dafts of this pape. Refeences Ak~akaya, H. R., and Feson, S. (1990). 'RAMAS/Space Use Manual. Spatially Stuctued Population Models fo Consevation Biology.' (Applied Biomathematics: Setauket, New Yok.) Ballou, J. (1983). Calculating inbeeding coefficients fom pedigees. n 'Genetics and Consevation: 1\ Refeence fo Managing Wild Animal and Plant Populations'. (Eds C. M. SchonewaldCo11, S. M. Chambes, B. MacBydc and W. L. Thomas.) pp (Benjamin/Cummings: Menlo Pak, Califonia.) Belovsky, G. E. (1987). Extinction models and mammalian pesistence. n 'Viable Populations fo Consevation'. (Ed. M. E. Soule.) pp (Cambidge Univesity Pess: Cambidge.) Bege, J. ( 1990). Pesistence of diffeentsized populations: an empiical assessment of apid e11tinctions in bighon sheep. Consevation Biology 4, 918. Bewe, ll. A., Lacy, R. C., Foste, M. L., and Alaks, G. (1990). nbeeding depession in insula and ccn1al populalions of Peomyscus mice. Jounal of Heedity 81, Bogmann, M. A., and Gead, V. A. (1990). A stagestuctued, stochaslic model fo giant kelp Macocystis pyifea. Maine Biology 105, Clak, T. W. (1989). 'Consevation Biology of the Blackfooted Feet. Special Scientific Repot.' (Wildlife Pesevation Tust ntenational: Philadelphia.) Clak, T. W., and Seebeck, J. H. (Eds) (1990). 'Management and Consevation of Small Populations.' (Chicago Zoological Society: Bookfield, 111inois.) Clak, T. W., Waneke, R. M., and Geoge, G. G. (1990). Management and consevation of small populations. n 'Management and Consevation of Small Populations'. (Eds T. W. Clak and J.. Seebeck.) pp (Chicago Zoological Society: Bookfield, llinois.) Clak, T. W., Back house, G. N., and Lacy, R. C. (1991). Repot of a wokshop on population viability assessment as a tool fo lheatened species management and consevation. Austalian Zoologist 27, Cow, J. F., and Kimua, M. (1970). 'ntoduction to Population Genetics Theoy.' (Hape and Row: New Yok.) Doughty, R. W. (1989). 'Retun of the Whooping Cane.' (Univesity of Texas Pess: Austin.) Falcone, D. S. (1981). 'ntoduction to Quantitative Genetics.' 2nd Edn. (Longman: New Yok.) Feson, S. (1990). 'RAMAS/Stage. Genealized Stagebased Modeling fo Population Dynamics.' (Applied Bioma1hena1ics: Setauket, New Yok.) Feson, S., and Ak~kaya, H. R. (1989). 'RAMAS/Age Use Manual. Modeling Fluctuations in Agestuctued Populations.' (Applied Biomathematics: Setauket, New Yok.) Fishe, R. A. (1958). 'The Genetical Theoy of Natual Selection.' 2nd Edn. (Dove: New Yok.) Foose, T. J., Lacy, R. C., lleu, R., and Seal, U. S. (1992). Kenya black hinoceos population and habitat viabilily assessmcnl. (Captiv.: Beeding Specialist Goup, SSC, UCN: Apple Valley, Minnesota.) Gilpin, 1\1. E. (1987). Sp:llial stuctue and population vulneability. n 'Viable Populations fo Consevation'. (Ed. M. E. Soule.) pp (Cambidge Univesity Pess: Cambidge.) Gilpin, M. E. (1989). Population viability analysis. Endangeed Specil!s Update 6, Gilpin, M. E., and Soule, M. E. (1986). Minimum viable populations: pocesses of species extinction. n 'Consevation Biology: the Science of Scacity and Divesity'. (Ed. M. E. Soule.) pp (Sinaue: Sundeland, Massachusetts.) Goodman, D. (1987). The demogaphy of chance extinction. n 'Viable Populations fo Consevation'. (Ed. M. E. Soule.) pp (Cambidge Univesity Pess: Camb.idge.) Gie, J. W. (1980a). A simulation model fo small populations of animals. Ceati\ e Computing 6, Gie, J. W. ( 1980b). Modeling appoaches fo bald eagle population dynamics. Wild fiji! Socil!ty Bulletin 8,

123 ' i..! l. VORTEX: A 1\lodcl fo Population Viability Analysis 61 Hais, R. U., Metzge, L. H., and Bevins, C. D. (1986). 'GAPPS. Vesion 3.0.' (Montana Coopeative Reseach Unit, Univesity of Montana: Missoula.) Hill, F. A. R. (1991). A eseach ecovey plan fo the bushtailed ock wallaby Petogale pencillata (Gay 1825). Repot to Austalian N:!tional Paks and Wildlife Sevice. (Depatment of Consevation and Envionment: Melboune.) Kikpatick, S., and Stoll, E. (1981). A vey fast shiftegiste sequence andom numbe geneato. Jounal of Computational Physics 40, 517. Lacy, R. C. (1993). mpacts of inbeeding in natual and captive populations of vetebates: implications fo consevation. Pespectives in Biology and Medicine. (1,1 pess.) Lacy, R. C., and Clak, T. W. (1990). Population viability assessment of eastem baed bandicoot. n 'The Management and Consevation of Small Populations'. (Eds T. W. Clak and J. H. Seebeck.) pp (Chicago Zoological Society: Bookfield, llinois.) Lacy, R. C., Flesncss, N. R., and Seal, U. S. (1989). 'Pueto Rican Paot Population Viability Analysis.' (Captive Beeding Specialist Goup, SSC, UCN: Apple Valley, Minnesota.) Lacy, R. C., Petie, A.M., and Waneke, M. (1993). nbeeding and outbeeding depession in captive populations of wild species. n 'The Natual Histoy of nbeeding and Outbeeding'. (Ed. N. W. ThonhilL) (Univesity of Chicago Pess: Chicago.) (n pess.) Lande, R. (1988). Demogaphic models of the nothen spotted owl (Stix occidentalis cauina). Oecologia 75, Latou, A. (1986). Pola nomal distibution. Byte August 1986, Lindenmaye, D. 13., Clak, T. W., Lacy, R. C., and Thomas, V. C. (1993). Population viability analysis as a tool in wildlife management: a eview with efeence to Austalia. Envionmental Management. (n pess.) Mace, G. M., and Lande, R. (1991). Assessing extinction theats: towad a eevaluation of UCN theatened species categoies. Consevation Biology 5, Maguie, L. A., Lacy, R. C., Begg, R. J., and Clak, T. W. (1990). An analysis of altenative stategies fo ecoveing the easten baed bandicoot. n 'The Management and Consevation of Small Populations'. (Eds T. W. Clak and J. H. Seebeck.) pp (Chicago Zoological Society: Bookfield, llinois.) Maie, W. L (1991). A fast pseudo andom numbe geneato. D. Dobb's Jounal May 1991, Miande, C., Lacy, R. C., and Seal, U. S. ( 1993). Whooping cane consevation viability assessment wokshop. (Captive Beeding Specialist Goup, SSC, UCN: Apple Valley, Minnesota.) Moton, N. E Cow, J. F. and Mulle, H. J. (1956). An estimate of the mutational damage in man fom data on consanguineous maiages. Pocudings of the National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A. 42, O'Bien, S. J., and Evemann, J. F. (1988). nteactive influence of infectious diseases and genetic divesity in natual populations. Tends in Ecology and Ev:Jiution 3, Possingham, H. Davies, 1., and Noble,. R. (1991). 'An Evaluation of Population Viability Analysis fo Assessing the Risk of Extinction.' (Resouce Assessment Commission: Canbea.) Possingham, H. P., Davies, 1., Noble,. R., and Noton, T. W, (1992). A metapopulation simulation model fo assessing the likelihood of plant and animal extinctions. Mathematics and Computes in Simulation 33, Ralls, K., Ballou, J. D., and Templeton, A. R. (1988). Estimates of lethal equivalents and the cost of inbeeding in mammals. Consevation Biology 2, Resouce Assessment Commission (1991). Foest and timbe inquiy. Dat epot. Vol. 2. July (Austalian Govenment Publishing Sevice: Canbea.) Ricklefs, R. E. (:979). 'Ecology.' 2nd Edn. (Chion: New Yok.) Robcnson, A. ( 1960). A theoy of limits in atificial selection. Poceedings of the Royal Society of London JSJB, Seal, U. S., and Foose, T. J. (1989). Javan hinoceos population viability analysis and ecommendations. (Captive Beeding Specialist Goup, SSC, UCN: Apple VaJiey, Minnesota.) Seal, U. S. and Lacy, R. C. (1989). Floida panthe population viability anajysis. (Captive Beeding Specialist Goup, SSC, JUCN: Apple Valley, Minnesota.) Seal, U. S., Ballou, J. D., and Padua, C. V. (1990). Leontopithecus population viability analysis wokshop epot. (Captive Beeding Specialist Goup, SSC, UCN: Apple Valley, Minnesota.) Seal, U.S., Lacy, R. C., Medley, K., Seal, R., and Foose. T. J. (1991). Tana Rive Pimate Reseve Consevation Assessment Wokshop. (Captive: Beeding Specialist Goup, SSC, UCN: Apple Valley, Minnesota.) _

124 Selande, R. K. (1983). Evolutionay consequences of inbeeding. n 'Genetics and Consevation: A Refeence fo Managing Wild Animal and Plant Populations'. (Eds C. M. SchonewaldCox, S. M. Chambes, B. Macllyde and W. L. Thomas.) pp (Benjamin/Cummings: Menlo Pak, Califonia.) Shaffe, M. L. (1981). Minimum population sizes fo species consevation. BioScience 31, Shaffe, M. L. (1987). Minimum viable populations: coping with uncetainty. n 'Viable Populations fo Consevation'. (Ed. M. E. Soule.) pp (Cambidge Univesity Pess: Cambidge.) Shaffe, M. L. (1990). Population viability analysis. Consevation Biology 4, Simbeloff, D. A. (1986). The poximate causes of extinct.on. n 'Pallens and Pocesses in the Histoy of Life'. (Eds D. M. Raup and D. Jablonski.) pp (SpingeVelag: Belin.) Simbeloff, D. A. (1988). The contibution of population and community biology to consevation science. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 19, Soule, M. E. (Ed.) (1987). 'Viable Populations fo Consevation.' (Cambidge Univesity Pess: Cambidge.) Thomas, C. D. (1990). What do eal population dynamics tell us about minimum population sizes? Consevation Biology 4, Wight, S. (1977). 'Evolution and the Genetics of Populations. Vol. 3. Expeimental Results and Evolutionay Deductions.' (Univesity of Chicago Pess: Chicago.). 62 R. C. Lacy Appendix. Sample Output fom VORTEX Explanatoy comments oe added in italics VORTEX simulation of genetic and demogaphic stochasticity TEST Fi Dec 20 09:21: population(s) simulated fo 100 yeas, 100 uns VORTEX fist lists the input paametes used in the simulation: HETEROSS model of inbeeding depession with 3 14 lethal equivalents pe diploid genome Migation matix: Fist age of epoduction fo females; 2 fo males: 2 Age of senescence (death): 10 Sex atio at binh (poponion males): Population 1: Simulation label and output file name i.e. 1% pobability of migation fom Population to 2, and fom Population 2 to Polygynous mating; pe cent of adult males in the beeding pool. Repoduction is assumed to be density independent (EV = SD) pe cent of adull females poduce littes of size pe cent of adult females poduce littes of size pe cent of adult females poduce littes of size 2 EV is envionmental vaiation (EV = SD) pe. cent motality of females between ages 0 and (EV = 3 00 SD) pe cent motality of females betwc:<:n ages and (EV=3 00 SD) pe cent annual motality of adult females (2<=agc<=10) (EV=20 41 SD) pe cent motality of males between ages 0 and (EV=3 00 SD) pe cent motality of males between ages 1 and (EV=3 00 SD) pe cent annual motality of adult males (2<=age<= 10)..

125 ! 1,_ l ' { t \ l VoRTE.x: A Model fo Population Viability Analysis EVs have been adjusted to closest values possible: fo binomial distibution. EV in epoduction and motality will be: coelated. Fequency of type: catastophes: 000 JM= cent with multiplicative: effect on epoduction and multiplicative: effect on suvival Fequency of type 2 catastophes: pe cent with multiplicative effect on epoduction and multiplicative effect on suvival nitial size of Population : (set 10 eflect stable age distibution) Age Caying capacity= 50 (EV =0 00 SD) with a pe cent decease fo 5 yeas. Animals havested fom population, yea to yea 10 at 2 yea intevals: females yeas old female: adults (2<= age<= 10) males yeas old male: adults (2<=age<= 10) Animals added to population, yea 10 though yea 50 at 4 yea intevals: females yeas old females 2 yeas old males yeas old males 2 yeas old nput vafues ae summaised above, esults follow. VORTEX now epots lifetable calculations of expected population gowth ate. Total 5 Males 5 Females Deteministic population gowth ate (based on females, with assumptions of no limitation of mates and no inbeeding depession): = lambda=0 999 R0=0997 Geneation lime fo: females= 5 28 males= 5 28 Note that the deteministic lifetable calculations poject appoximately <eo population gowth fo this population. Stable age distibution: Age class females males Ratio of adult (>=2) males to adult (>=2) females: Population 2: nput paametes fo Population 2 wee identical to those fo Population 1. Output would epeat this infomation fom abo\'e. Simulation esults follow. Population 63 _ i f:

126 64 R. C. Lacy Yea 10 N[Extinct] = 0, P[E] = N[Suviving] = 100, P[S] = 000 Population size= 4 36 (O OSE, 1 01 SD) Expected heteozygosity= (0 001 SE, SD) Obseved heteozygosity= (0 000 SE, SD) Numbe of extant alleles= 8 57 (0 15 SE. 50 SD) Population summaies given, as equested by use, at 10yea intevals. Yea 100 N(Extinct] = 86, P[E] =0 860 N(Suviving] = 14, P[S] = Population size= 8 14 (1 27 SE, 4 74 SD) Expected heteozygosity= (0 035 SE, SD) Obseved heteozygosity= (0 071 SE, SD) Numbe of extant alleles= 3 14 (0 35 SE. 29 SD) n 100 simulations of 100 yeas of Population!: 86 went extinct and 14 suvived. This gives a pobability of extinction of ( SE), o a pobability of success of ( SE). 99 simulations went extinct at least once. Median time to fist extinction was 5 yeas. o those going extinct, mean time to fist extinction was 7 84 yeas ( 36 SE, SO). 123 ecolonisat ions occued. Mean time to ecolonisation was 4 22 yeas (0 23 SE, 2 55 SD). 110 eextinctions occued. Mean time toeextinction was yeas (2 81 SE, SD). Mean final population fo successful cases was 8 14 (1 27 SE, 4 74 SD) Age Adults Total Males Females Duing yeas of havest and/o supplementation mean gowth ate () was ( SE, SD) Without havest/supplementation, pio to caying capacity tuncation, mean gowth ate () was ( SE, SD) Population gowth in the simulation ( = ) was depessed elativt to the pojected gowth ate calculated fom the life table ( = 0 001) because of inbeeding depession and occasional lack of available mates. Note: 497 of 1000 havests of males and 530 of 1000 havests of females could not be completed because of insufficient animals. Final expected heteozygosity was Final obseved heteozygosity was Final numbe of alleles was Population ( SE SO) ( SE, SD) 3 14 (0 35SE, 1 29SD) Simila esults fo Population 2, omitted fom this Appendix, would follow. Yea 10 Mctapopulation Summay N(Extinet] = 0, P(E] =0 000 N[Suviving] = 100, P[S] = Population size= 8 65 (0 16 SE, 1 59 SD) Expected heteozygosity= (0 000 SE, SD) Obseved heteozygosity= 000 (0 000 SE, SD) Numbe of extant alleles= (0 20 SE, 1 96 SD) _

127 ! VoRTEX: A Model fo Population Viability Analysis 65 ' Metapopulation summaies au given at /0yca intenoals. Yea 100 N(Extincl) = 79, P(E) = N(Suviving)= 21, P(S]=0 210 Population size= (1 37 SE, 6 28 SD) Expected heteozygosity= (0 025 SE, SD) Obseved heteozygosity= (0 050 SE, SD) Numbe of extant alleles= 3 57 (0 30 SE, 36 SD) n 100 simulations of 100 yeas of Metapopulation: 79 went extinct and 21 suvived. This gives a pobability of extinction of ( SE). o a pobability of success of (00407 SE). 97 simulations went extinct at least once. Median time to fist extinction wa~ 7 yeas. Of those going extinct, mean time to fist extinction was yeas (2 05 SE, SD). 91 ecolonisat ions occued. Mean time to c:colonisation was 3 75 yeas (0 5 SE, 1 45 SD). 73 ec:xtinctions occued. Mean time toeextinction was yeas (1 06 SE, 9 05 SD). Mean final population fo successful cases was (137 SE, 6 28 SD) Age Adults Total 5 19 Males 5 19 females Duing yeas of havest and/o supplementation mean gowth ate () was ( SE, SD) Without havest/supplementation, pio to caying capacity tuncation, mean gowth ate () was ( SE, SD) Final expected heteozygosity was ( SE, SD) Final obseved heteozygosity was (00499 SE SD) Final numbe of alleles was 3 51 (0 30 SE. 36 SD) Manuscipt eceived 4 Mach 1992: evised and accepted 13 August 1992, ' t

128 ! (, i i t l i l i l SUMATRAN RHNO POPULATON AND HABTAT VABLTY ANALYSS WORKSHOP BREFNG BOOK SECTON 8: ASAN RHNO LFE HSTORY CHARACTERSTCS

129 NOTE: THS DATA FORM S FOR THE ]AVAN RHNO Captive Beeding Specialist Goup Species Suvival Commission ntenational Union fo the Consevation of Natue and Natual Resouce~ U.S. Seal, CBSG Ch1iman POPULATON VABLTY ANALYSS DATA FORM HAMHALS Species: Rhinoceos sondaicus (Desmaest). Javan Rhinoceos. i Species distibution: Ujung Kulon National Pak (Java); Vietnam 1989; Cambodia, Malaya, Buma? Histoically in Malaya, Buma, Thailand, ndochina, Java, Sumata, pats of nothen ndia. Most unconfimed until sightings in Vietnam. Study taxon (subspecies): ~ ~ sondaicus ~ ~ annamiticus in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos. R. ~ inemis in Assam. Study J.>Opulation location: Ujung Kulon National Pak. 30,000 hectaes = 300 k.tl. Metapopulation ae thee othe sepaate populations? Ae maps available?: (Sepaation by distance, geogaphic baies?) Only one population known in ndonesia. Specialized equiements (Tophic, ecological): Bowse. Pefes coastal foest zones and swamps in the pak. 190 plants (179 dicots) with 4 compising 44% of diet (Spondia pinnata, Amomum ~. Leea sambucina, & Dillenia excelsa). Age of fist epoduction fo each sex (popotion beeding): a)ealiest: Female 7 ys; Male 7; 55 M in captivity. (Both ndian) b)mean: Females 8.Ys in captivity (up to 20.vs) Hales 10 ys Gestation peiod (days o weeks): 16 months Litte size (N, mean, SD, ange)(at bith?, weaning?): 1 Bith Season: Unlikely. None fo ndians. Bith fequency ( intebith inteval): 49 yeas fo Javan. 8 9 yeas suggested by Amman. Vey long. 34 yeas fo ndian with one at 18 months follmdng loss of calf at a few da_l"s. Repoductive lifespan (Male & Female, Range): 30 ys? G = 16 y (F); = 19 y (H) (ndians in captivity). (G = geneation time) Life time epoduction (Mean, Male & Female): 4 8. Adult sex atio:.64 : 1 based upon 17 sexed animals (6: 11). Adult body weight of males and females: 1500 kg Johnny Cake Ridge Road, Apple Valley, MN tel. (612) ~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!~!!!!~

130 P V A Data Fom Social stuctue in tems of beeding (andom, paibonded, polygyny, polyandy, etc; beeding male and female tunove each yea?): 39,. Solitay, females with young to about 3 }'eas. No pai bonding. Hale teitoy may ovelap seveal females. Popotion of adult males and females beeding each yea:?. 113 of adult females ( 4 cal \'es pe }'ea; assuming 70 animals, 83% adults and sex atio 0.64:1.0. Estimated fom footpints difficult and little validation. f this age stuctue is coect, this is a dying population. Dispesal distance (mean, sexes): Hay move 1520 km in a da_y. Higations (months): Nove between feeding aeas. Aea 1.'ith 5 deaths eoccupied by a male and female. Tei to ial ity (home ange, season): Said to not hafe a stable home ange. Female teitoy said to be km2 and males 12.5 to 21 li.m2. Bith sex atio: 1:1 Bith weights (male and female): Ovulation induced o spontaneous: Pobably spontaneous. mplantation immediate o delayed (duation): Pobabl_F immediate. (About 3 weeks). Estous cycles (seasonal, multiple o single, post patum): Pobably multiple and nonseasonal. b_l. lactation. Duation of lactation: Postlactational estus: Post patum possible but inhibited About 1218 months (ndian). PobablJ at about 18 months postpatum. Age of dispesal: Hales 39.4 i:. 4.8 months; Females 34.1 (ndian). This h'oul d be shotly befoe bith of next calf. Maximum longevity: Feas. Population census most ecent. Date of last census. Reliability estimate.: :\bout 50 ( census)70 (extapolation) in Ujung Kulon. Apil %? See attached tables. Census and extapolation methods. 1989: 57 (52 62) with no young detected. (Santiapillai, ~idodo, & Bam bang). Pojected population (5, 10, 50 yeas).: Population has been stable fo 10 )~as. Would be difficult to detect a change of 10% in any one (! 5 animals). No calves wee detected this yea. Past population census (5, 10, 20 yeas dates, eliability estin1ates):,1bou t yea.. '.,.,..,, ~

131 ,..! P V A Data Fom J035 (lloogen.ef, 1970). 13 J;illed :!128 (Schenkel) 5470 (PPA; Ammann) (Sadjudin). Population sex and age stuctue (young, juvenile, & adults) time of yea.: Altenate scenaios: 0 1 = (2.2) 1 6 = Adult= Fecundity ates (by sex and age class): Adult females 0.11 calf pe yea. This implies geatly educed epoductive ates (about 1 calf pe 8 yeas) as compaed to the ndian and othe hinos potected and in good habitat. Capable of 1 calf evey 3 yeas. An altenative scenaio is 1 calf pe 4 yeas but a high infant motality ate. Motality ates and distibution Uncetain but: nfant Juvcniie Adult (by sex and = 5 20% = 2 4 % = 8 9% 40 age) (neonatal, juvenile, adult); Population density estimate. Aea of population. Attach maked map.: 50 animals in 30,000 hectae (300 knt) Ujung Aulon Pak. 1 pe 600 hectae. /loh'el e pehaps onl_ 1/3 of habitat is suitable. Souces of motality% (natual, poaching, havest, accidental, seasonal?).: Disease. Poaching. 1 in 1985 and 1 in Habitat capacity estimate (Has capacity changed in past 20, 50 yeas?).: Banteng (Bos ja~ anicus) population inceasing. Vegetation changes occuing. Pesent habitat potection status.: National Pai::. Pojected habitat potection status (5, 10, 50 yeas).: Pak to emain potected? Envionmental vaiance affecting epoduction and motalit) (ainfall, pey, pedatots, disease, sno~ cove?).: 5 bodies (4 adults and 1 calf) found in Diagnosis uncetain. Data on sex and ages~ Volcano dctidt.l Poaching. Disedse. Rainfall: s pedigee infomation available?:.\'0 Attach Life Table if dvailable. See attached tables.

132 P V A Data Fom Date fom completed: June 6, 1989 Coespondent/nvestigato: 41. Name: Addess: U. S. Seal CBSG c/o Minnesota Zoo Johnny Cake Road Apple Valley, Minnesota USA Telephone: Refeences: Fax: Nadelli, F., \ LS. Ramona, & T. Foose Poject to conseve the Javan hinoceos Rhinceos sondaicus Desm. Sadjudin, Schnekel, R. and H. Schnekel Amman, Hatman Lauie, A ndian Rhino SSP Analyses. Rockwell, R C. Santiapillai, S. R. widodo, and P. D. Bambang Comments: 10 animals ecoded in captivity duing past 150 yeas (Reynolds. 1Q61). None now o in ecent past. One lived 21 yeas. Potected since the tun of the centuy in Ujung Kulon. Poaches and huntes took 16 in , pehaps 2025 in Estimated that 42 animals taken between 1930 and 1970, i. e. about 1 pe yea. Population appeas to have been stable in numbes fo past 10 yeas. ntebith inteval is suggested to be about 8 yeas (~ould be 3 yeas in gowing pop.) Gowth ate pehaps 4% now but was 10% fom 1967 to Deaths in wee in one aea suggesting disease. These obsevations suggest that the population may be at caying capacity of about GO animals. l ~!,,.,.,.,

133 ! ' SUMATRAN RHNO POPULATON AND HABTAT VABLTY ANALYSS WORKSHOP BREFNG BOOK, i i i ~ ~ ' '! SECTON 9: TRAFFC: WORLD TRADE N RHNO HORNREVEW ',

134 1 ntenat ion a 1 Thla epot w publiahed with the kind suppot of ~~~ ~ c~ National Westminste Bank

135 Published by TRAFFC ntenational, Cambidge, UnitcJ Kingdom. With financial suppot fom WWF UK (Wold \Vide Fund Fo Natue) TRAFFC ntenational and the People's Tust fo Endangeed Species. All ights eseved. All mateial appeaing in this publication is copyighted and may be epoduced with pemission. Please cedit: TRAFFC ntenational Headquates of the TRAFFC Netwok, the wildlife tade monitoing pogamme of WWF and UCN. The views of the autho expessed in this 1 :1 l 1 l.1 publication do not necessaily eflect those of the TRAFFC Netwok, WWF o JUCN. The designations of geogaphical entities in this publication, and the pesentation of the mateial, do not imply the expession of any 1 1 opinion whatsoeve on the pat of TRAFFC o its suppoting oganizations concening the legal status of any county, teitoy, o aea, o of its authoities, o concening the delimitation of its fonties o boundaies. SBN Cove dawing by Byan Poole. Pinted on ecycled pape. 7 '..1 ') l l 1 'l 1 1

136 :._t., ~...".::=:.._,.,, "'t lllltlllt~ 4! THE WORLD TRADE N RHNO HORN: A REVEW Nigel LeadeWilliams' t \ The People's Tust fo Endangeed Species povided financial suppot fo the compilation of the data pesented in this publication. ~.1 'Lage Animal Reseach Goup Depa.ftment of Zoology Cambidge Univesity

137 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The autho would like to thank the People's Tust fo Endangeed Species fo thei financial suppon while this eview was compiled and John Beddington fo his encouagement. Richad Luxmooe of WCMC and Jogen Thomsen of TRAFFC kindly povided access to data and epints. The manuscipt was eviewed constuctively by Jogen Thomsen, Esmond Badley Manin, Kistin Nowell, Tom Milliken and 1'.lanin Books. Alison Rosse povided much suppon while the manuscipt was pepaed. Finally, the autho would like to acknowledge Esmond Badley Manin's pioneeing wok in unavelling the inticacies of the tade in hino hon.,., _.., _

138 THE WORLD TRADE N RHNO HORN: A REVEW NTRODUCTON Rhinos ae amongst the wold's most endangeed lage mammals. Two species of hinos in Asia (Javan Rhinoceos sondaicus and Sumatan Diceohinus sumatensis) and one subspecies in Afica (nothen white Ceatotheium simum cottom) teete on the edge of extinction. Ove the past two decades, the fomely numeous black hino Diceos bicomis has plummeted fom an estimated to and has become locally extinct ove lage aeas of Afica. By contast the southen white hino C. s. simum is cuently well conseved in limited aeas of its ange in southen Afica, as is the ndian hino Rhinoceos unicomis in ndia and Nepal. Howeve, with total wold populations in only the low thousands, the continued suvival of southen white and ndian hinos is by no means guaanteed (Cumming et al. 1990: Khan!989).. Whllt Rhinos 1n Kugn Natto.al Pak. 011t of llu f('4' hi~o populations not lt dtdi!'!t. Rhino numbes have declined fo two main easons. Fist, loss of hino habitat has been especially seious in the ainfoests and floodplains of Asia, but is less of a poblem in Afican savannas. Second, hino hons ae used in medicines and as dagge handles, and othe hino poducts such as skin and blood ae used to a lesse extent. As a esult of high demand fo hino hons, unpotected populations of hinos have been exploited unsustainably and the tade in thei poducts has lagely been esponsible fo educing hinos to thei pesently endangeed status. Theefoe, when the Convention on ntenational Tade in Endangeed Species of Wild Fauna and Roa (CTES) enteed into foce in 1975, hinos wee among the fist species included on the CTES Appendices. n July 1975, thee species (Sumatan, Javan and ndian) and one subspecies (nothen white) wee placed on Appendix. while one species (black) was placed on Appendix. n Febuay 1977, both the black and southen white hino wee placed on Appendix. theefoe pohibiting intenational commecial tade in the whole family of hinos and thei poducts. This eview has two aims. The fist is to collate the available infomation on volumes and pices of hino hom on wold makets and to detemine if the quality of the available data on the hino hom tade is compaable to that on ivoy. Recently, the voy Tade Review Goup (TRG) has been vey successful in documenting volumes and pices of ivoy on wold makets as pat of the ;; ~ ~ ~ ~

139 THE WORLD TRADE N RHNO HORN: A REVEW intenational effot to achieve moe successful consevation of Afican and Asian elephants (Cobb 1989). ndeed, the data on volumes of ivoy taded ove time ae moe complete than data on elephant numbes, due lagely to the difficulties of censusing elephants in ainfoests. Estimates of wold hino numbes ae even less complete and less accuate than those of elephants. Thee species of hino (Javan, Sumatan and black) ae pimaily solitay and live in foested o wooded habitats which make accuate total counts difficult. The main conclusion fom this section of the eview, unfotunately, is that data on volumes and pices of hino hom on wold makets ae much less complete than data fo ivoy. Two majo factos ae esponsible fo the diffeence in data quality between hino hon and ivoy. Fist. hino hom has not been diffeentiated fom othe types of hon and animal poducts in the customs statistics of most poducing, entepot and consuming nations even when the tade was legal, wheeas ivoy appeas as a sepaate commodity. Second, by 1977 all species of hinos and thei poducts wee placed on CTES Appendix, and many of the poducing and consuming nations had instituted thei own tade bans o became paties to CTES. Thus, most tade in hino hom became illegal, so by definition should not have appeaed in declaed customs statistics (though it does in one case, as discussed below). The second aim of the eview is to compile ou pesent knowledge on the extent of the hino hom tade, in ode to question whethe policies attempting to halt the hino hom tade, followed ove the last 15 yeas, have succeeded, o ae likely to succeed. Since cites was fomulated and all species of hinos wee placed on Appendix, it has been hoped that successful consevation of hinos would be achieved most costeffectively by halting the tade in hom. While being affoded the supposed benefit of an intenational tade ban, unpotected populations of the most widely distibuted subspecies of black hino have continued to be oveexploited fo thei hons, to the extent that black hinos have the dubious distinction of showing the fastest known ate of decline of any species of lage mammal. The fate of the widely distibuted Sumatan hino in Asia has been less well documented. Howeve, successes in hino consevation have been achieved o consolidated, fo example, the continued incease in numbes of southen white and ndian hino$ in southen Afica, and ndia and Nepal, espectively. Othe effots have begun to show signs of success. fo example, the initial ecovey of two of the fou subspecies of black hinos in Kenyan and in South Afican and Namibian sanctuaies, espectively and of nothen white hinos in Zaie. The ecipe fo success of these endeavous has involved the ounding up of staggles, concentating esouces in small aeas, and once the population has built up sufficiently, making tanslocations to unoccupied habitats in aeas of fome ange (eviewed in LeadeWilliams 1992). Affoding potection to hinos costs money and the cucial questions ae whethe hinos could contibute to the costs of thei consevation though a legal tade in hom, and whethe a legal tade in hom would educe the consideable pessues on unpotected populations of hinos that have esulted fom the illegal tade in thei hom. f this eview stimulates futhe infomed debate on this topic, then it will have achieved its second aim.. \ ~, 2

140 ''.. ' :~,~"., '. ". ~ THE WORLD TRADE N RHNO HORN: A REVEW j '* ', RESEARCH FOR THE REVEW Most of the available infonnation on the hino hom tade has been gatheed as a esult of the pioneeing wok of E.B. Manin and his colleagues since 1979, and thei esults have been pesented in numeous anicles and seveal books. Duing the couse of this eview all the aticles and books in the efeence list wee ead, the files of the Wold Consevation Monitoing Cente and TRAFFC wee examined, and the athe qualitative infonnation on volumes and pices of hino hom in wold tade wee collated. Many of the aticles in the efeence list eciculate the same infonnation but in a slightly diffeent fonn. This appoach has pesumably been adopted to canvas suppot amongst diffeent audiences fo attempts to halt the tade in hino hom, but it means that many of the aticles ead have not been quoted in the body of this epot The available data that have been compiled fo this epot ae all shown in tenns of volume in kg and pice in USS/kg, not coected fo inflation. Some pice data has been coected fo inflation whee indicated in vaious Figues, with a base of 00% in 1980 (as was done fo the Japan data set shown in LeadeWilliams et a/. 1990). Whee the tenns wholesale and etail pice appea, Matin's definitions fo his own wok have been followed. Namely, wholesale pice is that paid by deales and lage phamacy shops and etail pice is that chaged to the consume. Volumes of hom can be conveted to appoximate numbes of hino supplying that hom using the following mean weights: black hino: 2.88kg; white hino: 4.00kg: ndian hino: 0.72kg; Javan hino: 0.68kg; Sumatan hino: 0.27kg (Madn 1983e), making the assumption that hom weights have not changed ove time.. 3

141 THE WORLD TRADE N RHNO HORN: A REVEW THE USES AND HSTORY OF THE TRADE N RHNO HORN ihl' l_. 1itl''t L"t.'tlt_J, n! Lht' tlf htnt.l ho1n ~~'.1 :~cu: =~~: \'.,t n:. lht: Chin..~. ucn:1~ 21H B.C. ::011 \ D 1\Linn and \l.ttlt. 1'1~:. But, 1 u!'/':'' Dun~ 111.: \ln~.md Ch111~ d~ ll;t,j~' :h~ Chn''''' :anc.:d hnn h<>m' :\1., t>c:ju!!ll>: c"up' plall'' hoi\ h.nd ll~lllln:' l<!llllp lwn Jnnk1.,: 1 ~"cl' had th:.jjjc.:j.1ch.uli,j~t tll b~1ng cbk ll d~t.:. t alk.do1j PL'hOn'. 111 an a::c.: \ hell llich pol\1>11' Cl"e. l!l,[illf llll';b ll TJdlliO:al dagg,j o Jtlmb;us at' poduc~d '' tt. ijinp ho11 h.jndll 111 emtn 4 m:ach<=~ Hul\ c1 c. "c'tt'nt'' on~ be~~~~ L'd that hmo hon "a' u'ed pmail~ a' an apho J,lac :lu th' m~ th ",,, c.:\piuokd 111 til.:.:al~ 1980, 1Pake and \la111n 1 P9. \bun and \la ~). Some h1noll!ln j, ndet:d con,uned "'.n aphod1s1ac hut th:' '' lm1ted to ll'e b~ the Gujaati. in ndia Rh1no hom ha' haj \ L' fa moe imponam U'e' 111 tem' of h lume tadc.:d in ece111 t!mt:' F1'L hon and uthe hno podlkt> >LH:h ;1, blood.,1.111 and c.ne. i.l~ <ill 1mponan1 o.:on"'liluent mt;dtonal med1cin' <Jnd poton' w,ed to educe fe1 e'. heada~he, a,d othe 1llnes'e' 111 the Fa E;!,L Such mo.:dicme> ae u'ed pnmanly by the Chine:. but abc1 b~ Bume,e. Thais and :\epaji,_ n contast. the Japanese and Koean' <tlso leaned to u,e hm, hon n medtcn.:. though c;,i~ ~ultu;i lnk' wth the Chmc,t:. blt do not U>e othe hno podlch. Rh1.o hon "geneal!~ 'old in the Fa East in one of two fom fist a., '"a'' hon b~ tal.itw.d phj:nao.:hh 11 ho m;tke u the ncdu.:uw fo individual cu,tomc. fom hon' held 111 thct,hop, ;~nd '~cond "'a t un,tttucnt tn n;uh;~c"lucu nedcme~. An mponam pomt s that '"Fe'" ta,;m.' hc n 1' bclle\ ed mo.: eliio.:;~cjou~ than '"Wate" (Afican hon and that Asian hon 1s ~on,dcabl~ moe e\pen't'c 1 :\(m ell t! ai Thus both Afncan and Asian hmo hon is used widely thoughout the a East both b~ 111d1gcnous people but pan1culaly by the estdem Chmese commun111es found m mo,t F:: Easten countne' (Manin 1983dL n addition..:onfiscatons n Los Angeles. San Fan.:>CO and Bu,,eb aue,tto the us of hino hon by Chnese communities 111 We,ten ccumnes. Second. Yemen, ha\ e w;ed Afncan hino hom 'ince at least the eighth cemu~ to make handles fo t;tdmon:l dagge> (jambias). Dagges ae imponam status symbols in the cul:ual life of Yemeni men. n comast to othe matenab used fo dagge handles such a> wate buffalo Bubalus bubalts hom. hino hom handles imp~o\c in appeaance and luste with age. Theefoe.! is the qualty of h:no hon that inteests the makes of dagges athe than any f;f~maton wth hinos pe!>c 1 Vasco a. 1989b 1 The beauty of caned hno hon. "hethc as cup' o dagge handle>. cannot be disputed. Th~ phamacologjcal efficacy of hno hon as an aphod!siac can. as with all othe ty P~' of aphodisia~. only be guessed at. Ho\l.evc. its p>~ cholog:cal \ aluc may \1 ell be all 1mponant and has some basis both in the shape of hino hons and 111 the long counsh1p and staying pd" e of copulaung him>eeo,es. \\ hich take up1\ ads of one hou fom imomjss1on to

Solar in Wetlands. Photo credit: a k e.org/blog/2012/08/15mw solar field near philadelphia.html

Solar in Wetlands. Photo credit:  a k e.org/blog/2012/08/15mw solar field near philadelphia.html Sola in Wetlands Photo cedit: http://www.l a k e.og/blog/2012/08/15mw sola field nea philadelphia.html Ceated by: Jessica son Isabel Molina Allie Ziegle Sam Zuckeman Patnes: Vemont Depatment of Envionmental

More information

Estimating Fish Abundance - Mark Recapture Method

Estimating Fish Abundance - Mark Recapture Method Estimating Fish Abundance - Mak Recaptue Method Autho: Doug Lason Gade level: 7 th 9 th (see basic questions) o 10 th 12 th (see advanced questions) Class size: 15 30 Goup size: 3-5 Setting: compute lab

More information

Annual Review APPLICATIONS AND STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF MINIMUM SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE-BASED CRITERION TESTING IN A TOXICITY TESTING PROGRAM

Annual Review APPLICATIONS AND STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF MINIMUM SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE-BASED CRITERION TESTING IN A TOXICITY TESTING PROGRAM Envionmental Toxicology and Chemisty, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 113 117, 000 Pinted in the USA 07-78/00 $9.00.00 Annual Review APPLICATIONS AND STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF MINIMUM SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE-BASED

More information

Enterprise Systems and Revenue Recognition: The Missing Link FINANCIAL EXECUTIVE BENCHMARKING SURVEY. Enterprise Systems Edition

Enterprise Systems and Revenue Recognition: The Missing Link FINANCIAL EXECUTIVE BENCHMARKING SURVEY. Enterprise Systems Edition - Entepise Systems and Revenue Recognition: The Missing Link FINANCIAL EXECUTIVE BENCHMARKING SURVEY Entepise Systems Edition TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summay... 2 The Impact of Revenue

More information

SANITARY ENGINEERING ASSISTANT, 7866 SANITARY ENGINEERING ASSOCIATE, 7870 SANITARY ENGINEER, 7872

SANITARY ENGINEERING ASSISTANT, 7866 SANITARY ENGINEERING ASSOCIATE, 7870 SANITARY ENGINEER, 7872 8-8-86 SANITARY ENGINEERING ASSISTANT, 7866 SANITARY ENGINEERING ASSOCIATE, 7870 SANITARY ENGINEER, 7872 Summay of Duties : Pefoms pofessional sanitay and envionmental engineeing wok in connection with

More information

Oregon and Washington). The second major study used for this report is "Parks and Recreation Information

Oregon and Washington). The second major study used for this report is Parks and Recreation Information Chapte 2 AN ECONOMIC ESTIMATE FOR SPORTFISHING ON SAN FRANCISCO BAY Jennife Cohen Intoduction San Fancisco Bay is a valuable esouce because it povides people with eceational and aesthetic pleasue, sustains

More information

1100-WFW-Lake Alfred, Florida 33850

1100-WFW-Lake Alfred, Florida 33850 New Lette No. 43 CS-1972-4 Febuay 18, 1972 1100-WFW-Lake Alfed, Floida 33850 Edito: W. F. Wadowski Havesting and Handling Section Univesity of Floida Agicultual Reseach and Education Cente P. 0. Box 1088

More information

Suite 206, 5102-St A ye, Vellowknife, NT XIA 3S8 Phone (867) Fax (867)

Suite 206, 5102-St A ye, Vellowknife, NT XIA 3S8 Phone (867) Fax (867) NORTHWEST TERRITORIES HYDRO CORPORATION Suite, 5-St A ye, Vellowknife, NT XIA S8 Phone (87) 7-5084 Fax (87) -5 Heidi Wiebe, Plan Delopment Lead Sahtu Land Use Planning Boad P.O. Box 5 Fot Good Hope, NT

More information

The Research of Risk Management in Two Non-Independent IT System

The Research of Risk Management in Two Non-Independent IT System J. Sevice Science & Management, 00, 3, 8-85 doi:0.436/jssm.00.30 Published Online June 00 (http://www.scirp.og/jounal/jssm) 8 The Reseach of Risk Management in Two Non-Independent IT System Zhe in,, unfei

More information

Bay Area, is now in agricultural production (see Figures 1 and 2). Oat hay and its fermented derivative,

Bay Area, is now in agricultural production (see Figures 1 and 2). Oat hay and its fermented derivative, - Chapte 2 AGRCULTURE N THE NAPA MARSH AND TS MPACT ON THE NORTH BAY ECONOMY Deboah A. Reagan ntoduction Appoximately one half of the Napa Mash, once one of the lagest wetland systems in the San Fancisco

More information

Fuzzy evaluation to parkour social value research based on AHP improved model

Fuzzy evaluation to parkour social value research based on AHP improved model ISSN : 097-7 Volume 0 Issue BTAIJ, 0(), 0 [0-] Fuzzy evaluation to pakou social value eseach based on AHP impoved model Yulian Guo *, Xiaojun Guo and Xigui Sun Institute of Physical Education, Jilin Univesity,

More information

Fisheries Management with Uncertainty. Importance of Marine Fisheries. Signs of Overharvest

Fisheries Management with Uncertainty. Importance of Marine Fisheries. Signs of Overharvest Fisheies Management with Uncetainty Context The Ovehavest Poblem Potential fo Recovey Management fo MSY Poposed Solutions Maine Reseves can incease yield Impotance of Maine Fisheies Immense social and

More information

THE VALUE OF GRID-SUPPORT PHOTOVOLTAICS IN PROVIDING DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM VOLTAGE SUPPORT 2. OBJECTIVE

THE VALUE OF GRID-SUPPORT PHOTOVOLTAICS IN PROVIDING DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM VOLTAGE SUPPORT 2. OBJECTIVE THE VALUE OF GRID-SUPPORT PHOTOVOLTAICS IN PROVIDING DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM VOLTAGE SUPPORT T. Hoff and H. J. Wenge Pacific Enegy Goup Walnut Ceek, Califonia USA B. K. Fame Pacific Gas and Electic Company

More information

Re-Designing a Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty Program via Linkage

Re-Designing a Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty Program via Linkage Re-Designing a Custome Satisfaction and Loyalty Pogam via Linkage Pesented by: Lezlee Danne Roche Diagnostics IIR Linking Custome Satisfaction to Custome Pofitability Febuay 16-18, 2005 Agenda Roche Diagnostics

More information

Health Links Assessment

Health Links Assessment Health Links Assessment ORGANIZATION INFORMATION This section is used to captue infomation about you oganization and employee population. Oganization Name Website Mailing Addess Name of Pimay Contact Email

More information

POSITIVE METALLURGICAL RESULTS FOR THE TAMPIA GOLD PROJECT

POSITIVE METALLURGICAL RESULTS FOR THE TAMPIA GOLD PROJECT 30 Mach 2016 Highlights POSITIVE METALLURGICAL RESULTS FOR THE TAMPIA GOLD PROJECT Gold minealisation is fee milling and non-efactoy Appoximately 70% of all gold epots to high gade sulphide float concentate

More information

QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH REGARDING PERFORMANCE MEASURES FOR INTERMODAL FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION

QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH REGARDING PERFORMANCE MEASURES FOR INTERMODAL FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH REGARDING PERFORMANCE MEASURES FOR INTERMODAL FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PREPARED FOR: PREPARED BY: The Minnesota Depatment of Tanspotation Division of Tanspotation

More information

5.5 Alternative 3: Nonstructural Flood Protection

5.5 Alternative 3: Nonstructural Flood Protection Combined Altenatives: Impacts and Mitigation 5.5 Altenative 3: Nonstuctual Flood Potection Nonstuctual Flood Potection (Altenative 3) would not esult in geogaphically boad-scale flood damageduction duing

More information

Out-of-Merit-Order Dispatch

Out-of-Merit-Order Dispatch Out-of-Meit-Ode Dispatch A Maket Cleaing Engine Co-Optimisation Study By Lu Feiyu Senio Maket Analyst Oiginal Publication Date: Januay 2005 A Maket Cleaing Engine Co-Optimisation Study About the Autho

More information

10.2% 2.5% FY19 to FY21

10.2% 2.5% FY19 to FY21 POWER PRICES FALLING OVERALL RESIDENTIAL FY19 to FY21 10.2% Rising 2.5% FY19 to FY21 GR FY19 to FY21 2.1% PO L Falling CHEME PR NS IC E E Rising ES Falling WIRES P AND RI S E S CE TION PRI CE ERA N E S

More information

Theoretical Investigation on Condensing Characteristics of Air and Oil Vapor Mixtures

Theoretical Investigation on Condensing Characteristics of Air and Oil Vapor Mixtures Pudue Univesity Pudue e-pubs Intenational Refigeation and Ai Conditioning Confeence School of Mechanical Engineeing 2008 Theoetical Investigation on Condensing Chaacteistics of Ai and Oil Vapo Mixtues

More information

An Energy-Economy Model to Evaluate the Future Energy Demand-Supply System in Indonesia

An Energy-Economy Model to Evaluate the Future Energy Demand-Supply System in Indonesia An Enegy-Economy Model to Evaluate the Futue Enegy Demand-Supply System in Indonesia Maste Thesis Executive Summay Agus Sugiyono 7493627 Moi Laboatoy Industial Administation Depatment Faculty of Science

More information

Production Planning under Hierarchical Workforce Environment

Production Planning under Hierarchical Workforce Environment , July 2-4, 2014, London, U.K. Poduction Planning unde Hieachical Wokfoce Envionment Sujan Piya, Nas Al-Hinai Abstact In a make-to-ode system, odes ae scheduled fo poduction based on the ageed due date

More information

MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION OF PLANNING ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CO 2 MITIGATION STRATEGIES INCLUDING ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL RISK

MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION OF PLANNING ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CO 2 MITIGATION STRATEGIES INCLUDING ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL RISK MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION OF PLANNING ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CO 2 MITIGATION STRATEGIES INCLUDING ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL RISK Jee-Hoon Han and In-Beum Lee * Depatment of Chemical Engineeing POSTECH

More information

Multi-year Expert Meeting on Transport, Trade Logistics and Trade Facilitation:

Multi-year Expert Meeting on Transport, Trade Logistics and Trade Facilitation: Multi-yea Expet Meeting on Tanspot, Tade Logistics and Tade Facilitation: Second session: Tade facilitation ules as a tade enable: options and equiements Geneva, 1 3 July 2014 ENABLING TRADE THROUGH TRADE

More information

Whakatu Arterial Link Planning Assessment. June 2014

Whakatu Arterial Link Planning Assessment. June 2014 Planning Assessment Pepaed Fo: Hastings Distict Council Pivate Bag 9002 Hastings June 2014 Pepaed By Envionmental Management Sevices Limited PO Box 149 NAPIER E N V I R O N M E N T A L M A N A G E M E

More information

TRAINING NEEDS ANALYSIS and NATIONAL TRAINING STRATEGIES

TRAINING NEEDS ANALYSIS and NATIONAL TRAINING STRATEGIES TRAINING NEEDS ANALYSIS and NATIONAL TRAINING STRATEGIES How to ensue the ight taining at the ight time to the ight people? Deliveing Good Govenance Tools fo Local and Cental Authoities Pinciples of Taining

More information

THE EFFECT OF SHEAR STRENGTH NORMALISATION ON THE RESPONSE OF PILES IN LATERALLY SPREADING SOILS

THE EFFECT OF SHEAR STRENGTH NORMALISATION ON THE RESPONSE OF PILES IN LATERALLY SPREADING SOILS Eathquake Geotechnical Engineeing Satellite Confeence XVIIth Intenational Confeence on Soil Mechanics & Geotechnical Engineeing 2-3.. 29, Alexandia, Egypt THE EFFECT OF SHEAR STRENGTH NORMALISATION ON

More information

Fig. 1; Study Area, Source (PPC), Meteorological Stations (Souda and Airport) and Modeling Domain.

Fig. 1; Study Area, Source (PPC), Meteorological Stations (Souda and Airport) and Modeling Domain. ON THE SENSITIVITY OF AERMOD TO SURFACE PARAMETERS UNDER VARIOUS ANEMOLOGICAL CONDITIONS Geoge Kavounis, Despina Deligiogi and Kostas Philippopoulos National and Kapodistian Univesity of Athens, Depatment

More information

FDSS Training Manual

FDSS Training Manual FDSS Taining Manual Febuay 2003 Instuctions fo Using the Fontline Decision Suppot System Developed by W.E. Upjohn Institute fo Employment Reseach 300 South Westnedge Avenue Kalamazoo, MI 49007 www.upjohn.og

More information

SURVEY OF MOVING CAR OBSERVER AND MKJI 1997 APPLICATIONS AGAINST THE TRAFFIC FLOW SECTION IN MERAUKE REGENCY

SURVEY OF MOVING CAR OBSERVER AND MKJI 1997 APPLICATIONS AGAINST THE TRAFFIC FLOW SECTION IN MERAUKE REGENCY Intenational Jounal of Civil Engineeing and Technology (IJCIET) Volume 9, Issue 10, Octobe 2018, pp. 876 882, Aticle ID: IJCIET_09_10_088 Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/ijciet/issues.asp?jtype=ijciet&vtype=9&itype=10

More information

Business Law Curriculum Coordination at Berkeley Law (Boalt Hall) For last several (~10) years

Business Law Curriculum Coordination at Berkeley Law (Boalt Hall) For last several (~10) years Univesity of Califonia, a, Bekeley eley The Bekeley Tansactional Pactice Poject Pof. Eic L. Talley UC Bekeley etalley@law.bekeley.edu Competencies / Skills Suvey; 2014 1 Backgound Business Law Cuiculum

More information

Optimal Pricing under The Consumer Segmentation in Dual Channel Supply Chain

Optimal Pricing under The Consumer Segmentation in Dual Channel Supply Chain Intenational Confeence on Engineeing Management, Engineeing Education and Infomation Technology (EMEEIT 015) Optimal Picing unde The Consume Segmentation in Dual Channel Supply Chain Xiaoyu Zhu1, a *,

More information

Integrating conflict analysis in drought risk management: Some hints from the Mediterranean area

Integrating conflict analysis in drought risk management: Some hints from the Mediterranean area Integating conflict analysis in dought isk management: Some hints fom the Mediteanean aea Raffaele Giodano Wate Reseach Institute National Reseach Council, Italy Macela Bugnach Iene Pluchinotta Faculty

More information

CARPATHIAN JOURNAL OF FOOD SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

CARPATHIAN JOURNAL OF FOOD SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CARPATHIAN JOURNAL OF FOOD SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY jounal homepage: http://chimie-biologie.ubm.o/capathian_jounal/index.html GAME ANALYSIS OF APPLICATION OF HAZARD ANALYSIS AND CRITICAL CONTROL POINT SYSTEM

More information

Castor. subwatershed report card

Castor. subwatershed report card subwateshed epot cad JANUARY 2014 SOUTH CONSERVATION South Nation Consevation woks with patnes to conseve, estoe, and manage natual esouces in local watesheds. Wateshed monitoing helps us bette undestand

More information

Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Wetlands Impacts

Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Wetlands Impacts Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Wetlands Impacts James Mois Diecto, Belle W Bauch Institute fo Maine & Coastal Sciences Univesity of South Caolina 1979-2000 Sep 2007 Souce: National Snow and Ice Data Cente

More information

( τα ) = Product of transmittance and absorptance

( τα ) = Product of transmittance and absorptance Poceedings of the 010 Intenational Confeence on Industial Engineeing and Opeations Management Dhaka, Bangladesh, Januay 9 10, 010 Design of a Diect Gain Passive Sola Heating System Md. Tanbiuj Jaman, Md.

More information

*** NOTICE *** PUBLIC NOTICE UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA DEVELOPMENT AND DISPOSAL PLANS GAKONA, ALASKA

*** NOTICE *** PUBLIC NOTICE UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA DEVELOPMENT AND DISPOSAL PLANS GAKONA, ALASKA *** NOTICE *** PUBLIC NOTICE UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA DEVELOPMENT AND DISPOSAL PLANS GAKONA, ALASKA The Univesity of Alaska ( Univesity ) is seeking public comments egading the development of land fo mateial

More information

Self-assessment for the SEPA-compliance of infrastructures

Self-assessment for the SEPA-compliance of infrastructures Self-assessment fo the SEPA-compliance of infastuctues Based on Tems of Refeence established by the Euopean Cental Bank as published in the 5 th Pogess Repot of SEPA (July 2007) and available on the website

More information

Aquatic Vegetation of Wilkins Lake (DOW ) Aitkin County, Minnesota

Aquatic Vegetation of Wilkins Lake (DOW ) Aitkin County, Minnesota Aquatic Vegetation of Wilkins Lake (DOW 01-0102-00) Aitkin County, Minnesota July 27 and 28, 2005 Pepaed by: Kevin Mott Minnesota Depatment of Natual Resouces Aquatic Plant Management Pogam 1601 Minnesota

More information

An Evaluation of Negative Selection in an Artificial Immune System for Network Intrusion Detection

An Evaluation of Negative Selection in an Artificial Immune System for Network Intrusion Detection An Evaluation of Negative Selection in an Atificial Immune System fo Netwok Intusion Detection Abstact This pape investigates the ole of negative selection in an atificial immune system (AIS) fo netwok

More information

Fisheries Management with Uncertainty. Importance of Marine Fisheries. Signs of Overharvest

Fisheries Management with Uncertainty. Importance of Marine Fisheries. Signs of Overharvest Fisheies Management with Uncetainty Context The Ovehavest Poblem Potential fo Recovey Management fo MSY Poposed Solutions Maine Reseves can incease yield Impotance of Maine Fisheies Immense social and

More information

Journal of Chemical and Pharmaceutical Research, 2014, 6(6): Research Article

Journal of Chemical and Pharmaceutical Research, 2014, 6(6): Research Article Available online www.jocp.com Jounal of Chemical and Phamaceutical Reseach, 014, 6(6):854-859 Reseach Aticle ISSN : 0975-7384 CODEN(SA) : JCPRC5 Pefomance evaluation of phamaceutical entepise human esouces

More information

A Note on Void Ratio of Fibre-Reinforced Soils

A Note on Void Ratio of Fibre-Reinforced Soils TECHNICAL NOTE A Note on oid Ratio of Fibe-Reinfoced Soils Sanjay Kuma Shukla 1 Mohamed A. Shahin *2 Hazim Abu-Taleb 3 Abstact This technical note extends the concept of void atio, pesented taditionally

More information

The impact of technology innovation on green chemistry and lowcarbon

The impact of technology innovation on green chemistry and lowcarbon vailable online www.jocp.com Jounal of Chemical and Phamaceutical Reseach, 214, 6(6):539-543 Reseach ticle ISSN : 975-7384 CODEN(US) : JCPRC5 The impact of technology innovation on geen chemisty and lowcabon

More information

Development projects, migration and malaria in the GMS

Development projects, migration and malaria in the GMS Development pojects, migation and malaia in the GMS Biegional Meeting on Healthy Bodes in the GMS 5-7 August 2013, Bangkok, Thailand D. Deye Gopinath MD MPH Wold Health Oganization Lao PDR gopinathd@wpo.who.int

More information

Reporting Checklist for Nature Neuroscience

Reporting Checklist for Nature Neuroscience Coesponding Autho: Manuscipt Numbe: Manuscipt Type: Yuki Oka NNA5991A Aticle Repoting Checklist fo Natue Neuoscience # Main Figues: 7 # Supplementay Figues: # Supplementay Tables: 0 # Supplementay Videos:

More information

Inventory Strategy of Dual-Channel Supply Chain from Manufacturer's Perspective

Inventory Strategy of Dual-Channel Supply Chain from Manufacturer's Perspective Intenational Jounal of Management and Fuzzy Systems 2018; 4(2): 29-34 http://www.sciencepublishinggoup.com/j/ijmfs doi: 10.11648/j.ijmfs.20180402.14 ISSN: 2575-4939 (Pint); ISSN: 2575-4947 (Online) Inventoy

More information

Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy

Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy Nethelands Scientific Council fo Govenment Policy W 69 Cop poduktion potential of ual aeas within the Euopean Communities V : Qualitative suitability assessment fo foesty and fuit cops H.A.J. van Lanen,

More information

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE TUESDAY, JULY 3, 2012, AT 10:00 A.M. EDT

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE TUESDAY, JULY 3, 2012, AT 10:00 A.M. EDT FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE TUESDAY, JULY 3, 2012, AT 10:00 A.M. EDT Chis Savage o Adiana Stoica M3-2 (12)-5 Manufactuing and Constuction Division CB12-121 (301) 763-4832 Full Repot on Manufactues Shipments,

More information

ITTO FD IMPACT OFINCREASEDUTILISATION OFLESSER-USED SPECIES (LIJS) (CAMEROIJNREPORT) !?^ V \ ~ ,, \

ITTO FD IMPACT OFINCREASEDUTILISATION OFLESSER-USED SPECIES (LIJS) (CAMEROIJNREPORT) !?^ V \ ~ ,, \ ITTO FD 33195 IMPACT OFINCREASEDUTILISATION OFLESSER-USED SPECIES (LIJS) (CAMEROIJNREPORT) It. *,^:!!?^ V, * * **>. ^66' \* ". a, **.,. tv \ ~,, \ ~., I,, *\, t DC,, *... t'*..,*- *-.-,.., '.,,.,. -...,,.-~,.

More information

Spatial-economic-ecological model for the assessment of sustainability policies of the Russian Federation

Spatial-economic-ecological model for the assessment of sustainability policies of the Russian Federation Spatial-economic-ecological model fo the assessment of sustainability policies of the Russian Fedeation Poject 213091 D4 Desciption of a set of the sustainability indicatos coupled with the constucted

More information

MICHIGAN WETLAND MITIGATION AND PERMIT COMPLIANCE STUDY. FINAL REPORT December 18, 2000

MICHIGAN WETLAND MITIGATION AND PERMIT COMPLIANCE STUDY. FINAL REPORT December 18, 2000 MICHIGAN WETLAND MITIGATION AND PERMIT COMPLIANCE STUDY FINAL REPORT Decembe 18, 2000 Pepaed By Robet P. Zbiciak Land and Wate Management Division Michigan Depatment of Envionmental Quality P.O. Box 30458

More information

FUZZY LOGIC BASED UAV ALLOCATION AND COORDINATION

FUZZY LOGIC BASED UAV ALLOCATION AND COORDINATION FUZZY LOGIC BASED UAV ALLOCATION AND COORDINATION James F. Smith III, ThanhVu H. Nguyen Code 57, Naval Reseach Laboatoy, Washington, DC, 0375-530, USA james.smith@nl.navy.mil Keywods Abstact decision suppot

More information

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT PROJECT UPDATE

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT PROJECT UPDATE WEDGETAIL MINING LIMITED ABN 85 003 257 556 Gound Floo, 24 Outam St West Peth WA 6005 Postal: PO Box 117, West Peth WA 6872 Phone: +61 8 9488 8800 Fax: +61 8 9481 0288 Website: www.wedgetail.net.au ASX

More information

Water Management of Heat Pump System for Hot Water Supply in a Medium Size Hospital

Water Management of Heat Pump System for Hot Water Supply in a Medium Size Hospital Wate Management of Heat Pump System fo Hot Wate Supply in a Medium Size Hospital Chih-Chiu Shen, Jau-Huai Lu, and Wu-Hui Chuo Abstact A heat pump system has been used in this study to eplace a natual gas

More information

ASSESSMENT OF MATERIAL BEHAVIOUR AND STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY OF ENGINEERING STRUCTURES BASED ON R6 PROCEDURE

ASSESSMENT OF MATERIAL BEHAVIOUR AND STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY OF ENGINEERING STRUCTURES BASED ON R6 PROCEDURE DOI: 10.2478/adms-2013-0017 P. G. ossakowski ielce Univesit of Technolog, Facult of Civil Engineeing and Achitectue, Chai of Stength of Mateials and Concete Stuctues, Tsiąclecia Państwa Polskiego 7, 25-314

More information

A Research on The Basic Theories of Systematic Risk Transmission in Enterprise Value Chain

A Research on The Basic Theories of Systematic Risk Transmission in Enterprise Value Chain Reseach on The Basic Theoies of Systematic Risk Tansmission in Entepise Value Chain Deng Mingan Jin Daoming (School of Management, Wuhan Univesity of Technology, Hubei Povince, P.R.China, 430070) (E-mail:

More information

The relationship between risk management and strategic performance of the organization (case study: selected university of the Semnan province)

The relationship between risk management and strategic performance of the organization (case study: selected university of the Semnan province) Intenational Academic Institute fo Science and Technology Intenational Academic Jounal of Business Management Vol. 2, No. 11, 2015, pp. 1-9. ISSN 2454-2768 Intenational Academic Jounal of Business Management

More information

Concentric Induction Heating for Dismantlable Adhesion Method

Concentric Induction Heating for Dismantlable Adhesion Method Concentic Induction Heating fo Dismantlable Adhesion Method Keywods «Induction heating», «Inteio constuction», «High fequency invete», «Allove method», «Dismantleable adhesion» Abstact A dismantlable (=dismantle-able)

More information

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2011, AT 10:00 A.M. EST

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2011, AT 10:00 A.M. EST FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2011, AT 10:00 A.M. EST Chis Savage o Adiana Stoica Manufactuing and Constuction Division (301) 763-4832 Full Repot on Manufactues Shipments, Inventoies and Odes

More information

Numerical Analysis of Current Attachment at Thermionic Cathode for Gas Tungsten Arc at Atmospheric Pressure

Numerical Analysis of Current Attachment at Thermionic Cathode for Gas Tungsten Arc at Atmospheric Pressure Tansactions of JWRI, Vol.38 (2009), No. 1 Numeical Analysis of Cuent Attachment at Themionic Cathode fo Gas Tungsten Ac at Atmospheic Pessue YAMAMOTO Kentao*, TASHIRO Shinichi** and TANAKA Manabu*** Abstact

More information

SCHEDULING FOR YARD CRANES BASED ON TWO-STAGE HYBRID DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING

SCHEDULING FOR YARD CRANES BASED ON TWO-STAGE HYBRID DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING TRASPORT ISS 648-442 / eiss 648-3480 208 Volume 33(2): 408 47 doi:0.3846/648442.206.255993 SCHEDULIG FOR YARD CRAES BASED O TWO-STAGE HYBRID DYAMIC PROGRAMMIG Zhan Bian, Qi Xu 2, a Li 3, Zhihong Jin 4

More information

Agricultural Trade Developments and Future Prospective in China

Agricultural Trade Developments and Future Prospective in China Agicultual Tade Developments and Futue Pospective in China D. Zuo Changsheng Deputy Diecto Geneal Agicultue Tade Pomotion Cente Ministy of Agicultue, P. R. China Contents I. Agicultual Development II.

More information

Policy implications of managing reservoir water for multiple uses of irrigation and fisheries in southeast Vietnam

Policy implications of managing reservoir water for multiple uses of irrigation and fisheries in southeast Vietnam Wate Utility Jounal 13: 69-81, 2016. 2016 E.W. Publications Policy implications of managing esevoi wate fo multiple uses of iigation and fisheies in southeast Vietnam L.D. Tan 1,2, D. Zilbeman 2*, S. Schilizzi

More information

THE FUTURE IS HERE BUSINESS PLANNING CONFERENCE REGISTRATION FORM 2018 BUSINESS PLANNING CONFERENCE AGENDA

THE FUTURE IS HERE BUSINESS PLANNING CONFERENCE REGISTRATION FORM 2018 BUSINESS PLANNING CONFERENCE AGENDA REGISTRATION FEE REGISTRATION FORM Ealy Bid Membe Rate (befoe August 10th) $699 Membe Rate (afte August 10th) $799 Complete this egistation fom and etun to MHEDA by fax at 847-362-6989 o egiste online

More information

Citation 京都大学経済学部 Working Paper (1993), 21.

Citation 京都大学経済学部 Working Paper (1993), 21. Title Job design, delegation, and analysis coopea Autho(s) Itoh, Hideshi Citation 京都大学経済学部 Woking Pape (1993), 21 Issue Date 1993-10 URL http://hdl.handle.net/2433/37916 Right Type Reseach Pape Textvesion

More information

Analysis of Electric Stress in High Voltage Cables Containing Voids

Analysis of Electric Stress in High Voltage Cables Containing Voids Analysis of Electic Stess in High Voltage Cables Containing s Pashant S. Patel M.E. Electical (Powe System), Electical Engg. Dept. Paul Institute of Engg.and Tech., Limda, Waghodia Vial S. Chaudhai Assistant

More information

19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, December 2011

19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, December 2011 19th Intenational Congess on Modelling and Simulation, Peth, Austalia, 12 16 Decembe 2011 http://mssanz.og.au/modsim2011 Challenging touism theoy though integated models: how multiple model pojects stengthen

More information

Catalogue no X. Wholesale Trade. August 2008

Catalogue no X. Wholesale Trade. August 2008 Catalogue no. 63-008-X Wholesale Tade August How to obtain moe infomation Fo infomation about this poduct o the wide ange of sevices and data available fom Statistics Canada, visit ou website at www.statcan.ca,

More information

GHG Emissions Reduction by Improving Efficiency of Utilities Transport and Use and Cross-Sectorial Energy Integration

GHG Emissions Reduction by Improving Efficiency of Utilities Transport and Use and Cross-Sectorial Energy Integration 19 A publication of CHMICAL NGINRING TRANSACTIONS VOL. 63, 2018 Guest ditos: Jeng Shiun Lim, Wai Shin Ho, Jiří J. Klemeš Copyight 2018, AIDIC Sevizi S..l. ISBN 978-88-95608-61-7; ISSN 2283-9216 The Italian

More information

Mobile Application Testing in Pakistan: A Survey

Mobile Application Testing in Pakistan: A Survey MUHAMMAD SAQIB NAWAZ*, ZAFAR IQBAL**, MUHAMMAD IKRAMULLAH LALI***, AND RAZA UL MUSTAFA** RECEIVED ON 23.06.2016 ACCEPTED ON 22.11.2016 ABSTRACT Reseach egading MAT (Mobile Application Testing) in Pakistan

More information

Distribution and Risk Assessment of Soil Heavy Metals in the Main Grain Producing Area of China

Distribution and Risk Assessment of Soil Heavy Metals in the Main Grain Producing Area of China Distibution and Risk Assessment of Soil Heavy Metals in the Main Gain Poducing Aea of China Mei Shan* 1,, Xun Wang 3 1 College of Resouces and Envionment, Shandong Agicultual Univesity, Taian, Shandong

More information

Available online at ScienceDirect. Procedia Engineering 122 (2015 )

Available online at   ScienceDirect. Procedia Engineering 122 (2015 ) Available online at www.sciencediect.com ScienceDiect Pocedia Engineeing 122 (2015 ) 151 157 Opeational Reseach in Sustainable Development and Civil Engineeing - meeting of EURO woking goup and 15th Geman-Lithuanian-Polish

More information

Analysing the economic impacts of a plant disease incursion using a general equilibrium approach

Analysing the economic impacts of a plant disease incursion using a general equilibrium approach Analysing the economic impacts of a plant disease incusion using a geneal equilibium appoach Glyn Wittwe, Simon McKidy and Ryan Wilson 1 Abstact This study uses a dynamic multi-egional computable geneal

More information

The 23 rd. Corresponding author: Tel ,

The 23 rd. Corresponding author: Tel , The 3 d Confeence of the Mechanical Engineeing Netwok of Thailand Novembe 4 7, 009, Chiang Mai Eos Compaison of aious Flow elocity Convesion Methods fo Tubulent Flow in Cicula Pipe Khajonsak Jeenkhajon

More information

OPTIMIZATION OF FILLER METALS CONSUMPTION IN THE PRODUCTION OF WELDED STEEL STRUCTURES

OPTIMIZATION OF FILLER METALS CONSUMPTION IN THE PRODUCTION OF WELDED STEEL STRUCTURES DOI: 10.1515/adms 016 0003 K. Pańcikiewicz, L. Tuz, Z. Żuek, Ł. Rakoczy AGH Univesity of Science and Technology in Kakow, Faculty Metals Engineeing and Industial Compute Science, Depatment of Physical

More information

Reliability and Availability Analysis Methodology for Power System Protection Schemes

Reliability and Availability Analysis Methodology for Power System Protection Schemes Reliability and Availability Analysis Methodology fo Powe System Potection Schemes Andé dos Santos Instituto Supeio Técnico, Univesidade de Lisboa Lisboa, Potugal Rede Eléctica Nacional S.A. Sacavém, Potugal

More information

south of and including the Oakland Airport, has been disturbed or destroyed since 1983 (Kelly, 1986, pers.

south of and including the Oakland Airport, has been disturbed or destroyed since 1983 (Kelly, 1986, pers. Chapte 3 THE ALAMEDA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DSTRCT SEASONAL WETLANDS N UNON CTY: A QUESTON OF ACTON Alex Battaglia " ntoduction The south San Fancisco Bay and its magins ae chaacteized by shallow wate, educed

More information

FORECASTING PRODUCTIVITY AND GROWTH WITH INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFs) PART 2: DRIVING THE DRIVERS AND INDICES

FORECASTING PRODUCTIVITY AND GROWTH WITH INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFs) PART 2: DRIVING THE DRIVERS AND INDICES FREDERICK S. PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES EXPLORE UNDERSTAND SHAPE WORKING PAPER 25.5.24.b FORECASTING PRODUCTIVITY AND GROWTH WITH INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFs) PART 2: DRIVING THE DRIVERS AND

More information

Quick Reference: Amplifier Equations

Quick Reference: Amplifier Equations Quick efeence: Amplifie Equations 1.0 Intoduction Befoe deeloping a deep familiaity with the aious chaacteistics of amplifies, it s common to spend a fai amount of time flipping back and foth though you

More information

Optimization of the Brass Melting

Optimization of the Brass Melting ARCHIVES of FOUNDRY ENGINEERING DOI: 10.2478/afe-2014-0051 Published quately as the ogan of the Foundy Commission of the Polish Academy of Sciences ISSN (2299-2944) Volume 14 Issue 3/2014 5 10 Optimization

More information

Preventing Pollution at Hot Mix Asphalt Plants

Preventing Pollution at Hot Mix Asphalt Plants Peventing Pollution at Hot Mix Asphalt Plants A Guide to Envionmental Compliance and Pollution Pevention fo Asphalt Plants in Missoui MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES 1-800-361-4827 http://www.dn.state.mo.us

More information

The impact of velocity on thermal energy storage performance of tube type thermocline tank

The impact of velocity on thermal energy storage performance of tube type thermocline tank Available online www.jocp.com Jounal of Chemical and Phamaceutical Reseach, 2014, 6(6):1620-1624 Reseach Aticle ISSN : 0975-7384 CODEN(USA) : JCPRC5 The impact of velocity on themal enegy stoage pefomance

More information

CASUAL ENQ: UGBPS/TECH-17134/BMD/WAB-CASUAL/22/2011 GAS BASED POWER STATION - UTRAN UTRAN , DIST

CASUAL ENQ: UGBPS/TECH-17134/BMD/WAB-CASUAL/22/2011 GAS BASED POWER STATION - UTRAN UTRAN , DIST CASUAL ENQ: UGBPS/TECH-1713/BMD/WAB-CASUAL/22/2011 GAS BASED POWER STATION - UTRAN UTRAN 39 105, DIST. SURAT, GUJARAT, INDIA P&T EXTENSTION NO: (0261) 299153/299851, FAX: 0261-299180 Email: utantps@gebmail.com

More information

AN IDEA BASED ON HONEY BEE SWARM FOR NUMERICAL OPTIMIZATION (TECHNICAL REPORT-TR06, OCTOBER, 2005) Dervis KARABOGA

AN IDEA BASED ON HONEY BEE SWARM FOR NUMERICAL OPTIMIZATION (TECHNICAL REPORT-TR06, OCTOBER, 2005) Dervis KARABOGA AN IDEA BASED ON HONEY BEE SWARM FOR NUMERICAL OPTIMIZATION (TECHNICAL REPORT-TR06, OCTOBER, 2005) Devis KARABOGA kaaboga@eciyes.edu.t Eciyes Univesity, Engineeing Faculty Compute Engineeing Depatment

More information

Evaluating the Effectiveness of a Balanced Scorecard System Implemented in a Functional Organization

Evaluating the Effectiveness of a Balanced Scorecard System Implemented in a Functional Organization Evaluating the Effectiveness of a Balanced Scoecad System Implemented in a Functional Oganization Chi-Bin Cheng, Depatment of Infomation Management, Tamkang Univesity, Taiwan Bao-Guang Chang, Depatment

More information

INTERGOVERNMENTAL IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK: North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan

INTERGOVERNMENTAL IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK: North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan INTEGOVENMENTAL IMPLEMENTATION FAMEWOK: Noth Yukon egional Land Use Plan Goal ecommendations Action Steps esults Expected Stat Date GOAL 1: Sustainable Development Pomote Sustainable Development by ensuing

More information

MANAGEMENTS' ROLE IN DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATION SYSTEM

MANAGEMENTS' ROLE IN DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATION SYSTEM Annals of DAAAM fo 2012 & Poceedings of the 23d Intenational DAAAM Symposium, Volume 23, No.1, ISSN 2304-1382 ISBN 978-3-901509-91-9, CDROM vesion, Ed. B. Katalinic, Published by DAAAM Intenational, Vienna,

More information

GUIDE FOR THE DESIGN OF CRANE-SUPPORTING STEEL STRUCTURES

GUIDE FOR THE DESIGN OF CRANE-SUPPORTING STEEL STRUCTURES GUIDE FOR THE DESIGN OF CRANE-SUPPORTING STEEL STRUCTURES THIRD EDITION R.A. MACCRIMMON NIAGARA FALLS, ONTARIO 2.4. Fatigue The calculated fatigue stess ange at the detail unde consideation, to meet the

More information

Quantifying the First-Flush Phenomenon: Effects of First-Flush on Water Yield and Quality

Quantifying the First-Flush Phenomenon: Effects of First-Flush on Water Yield and Quality Quantifying the Fist-Flush Phenomenon: Eects of Fist-Flush on Wate Yield and Quality D. B. Matinson* and T.H. Thomas** *Depatment of Civil Engineeing, Univesity of Potsmouth, Potland Building, Potland

More information

Predicting future changes in climate and evaporation by a stepwise regression method

Predicting future changes in climate and evaporation by a stepwise regression method Sustainability of Wate Resouces unde Inceasing Uncetainty (Poceedings of the Rabat Symposium S1, Apil 1997). IAHS Publ. no. 24, 1997. 339 Pedicting futue changes in climate and evapoation by a stepwise

More information

machine design, Vol.6(2014) No.3, ISSN pp

machine design, Vol.6(2014) No.3, ISSN pp machine design, Vol.6(2014) No.3, ISSN 1821-1259 pp. 85-90 CALCULATION OF RADIAL STIFFNESS FOR SINGLE-ROW BALL BEARING WITH FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS Ivana ATANASOVSKA 1 * - Radivoje MITROVIC 2 - Sonja STEFANOVIC

More information

Managing Accounting Information Quality: An Australian Study

Managing Accounting Information Quality: An Australian Study Association fo Infomation Systems AIS Electonic Libay (AISeL) ICIS 2000 Poceedings Intenational Confeence on Infomation Systems (ICIS) Decembe 2000 Managing Accounting Infomation Quality: An Austalian

More information

RETRACTED ARTICLE. The Fuzzy Mathematical Evaluation of New Energy Power Generation Performance. Open Access. Baoling Fang * , p 2

RETRACTED ARTICLE. The Fuzzy Mathematical Evaluation of New Energy Power Generation Performance. Open Access. Baoling Fang * , p 2 Send Odes fo Repints to epints@benthamscience.ae 238 Open Fuels & Enegy Science Jounal, 2015, 8, 238-243 Open Access Fuzzy Mathematical Evaluation of New Enegy Powe Geneation Pefomance Baoling Fang * Weifang

More information

Resource manager for an autonomous coordinated team of UAVs

Resource manager for an autonomous coordinated team of UAVs Resouce manage fo an autonomous coodinated team of UAVs James F. Smith III, ThanhVu H. Nguyen Naval Reseach Laboatoy, Code 574, Washington, D.C., 20375-5000 ABSTRACT A ecently developed fuzzy logic esouce

More information