A study on the impact of EU consumption on deforestation. GIULIANA TORTA European Commission DG ENVIRONMENT

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1 A study on the impact of EU consumption on deforestation GIULIANA TORTA European Commission DG ENVIRONMENT

2 Published on 2 nd July! pact_deforestation.htm /l-europe-importe-massivement-desproduits-lies-a-ladeforestation_ _3244.html NGOs press releases main media sites, twitter and other networks 2

3 Reasons for this study October 2008 Communication [COM (2008) 645] "Addressing the challenges of deforestation and forest degradation to tackle climate change and biodiversity loss" The COM indicates, among other actions, the following: "More generally on policy coherence, the Commission is committed to [ ]: studying the impact of EU consumption of imported food and non-food commodities (e.g. meat, soy beans, palm oil, metal ores) that are likely to contribute to deforestation. This could lead to considering policy options to reduce this impact". Responding to the Communication, the Environment Council, the European Parliament and the Economic and Social Committee all expressed strong support for such a study. 3

4 What is deforestation degradation Mining, illegal logging, unsustainable forest management,shifting cultivation, etc. Agricultural crops (timber minor) Pastures / livestock DEFORESTATION due to internal country consumption/land use and to external demand (exports) Infrastructure development natural hazards

5 Study objectives Stakeholder participation Objectives Task 2 : Impact Analysis comprehensive analysis of the impacts of EU consumption of imported food and non-food commodities and manufactured goods on deforestation Task 1: Data gathering and Study Implementation Methodology development Task 3: Policy Analysis Identification of areas where Community policies and where applicable legislation would need to be reviewed in order to support efforts to reduce deforestation Task 4: Policy Proposals specific suggestions for how the policies identified could be oriented to reduce EU impacts on deforestation Stakeholders ws other possible policy measures at other levels (e.g. EU Member State, multilateral, private sector) that could support the overall objective of reducing the loss of forest cover in third countries

6 FAO FRA 2010 Deforestation data ( ) Deforestationtransition Literature FAOSTAT land-use data ( ) FAOSTAT primary production data ( ) TRANSITION PATHWAYS Deforestation and subsequent land-use classes: Forest, Grass (pasture), Crop (cultivated), Other DEFORESTED LAND IN COMMODITIES from these landuse classes (agricultural and forest commodities) LANDFLOW Commodities linked to land-use classes FAOSTAT land resources in time series ( ) transition model eforestation/l and use changes Transition model deforestation/ land use changes LAND IN COMMODITIES from these land-use classes (agricultural and forest commodities) FAOSTAT Supply Utilisation Accounts (SUA) ( ) FAOSTAT Wood Balances (WB) ( ) FAOSTAT Trade Data ( ) National SUAs National WBs AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY TRADE MATRICES (physical) TSTRADE and GTAP MRIO INTERNATIONAL TRADE MATRICES including deforestationprone fossil fuels and ores (monetary) GTAP data ( ) OVERALL IMPACT ASSESSMENT Literature on land-use related sustainability indicators Assessment of generated indicators vs existing Add-on indicator Land-use and deforested land-use indicators Apparent consumption of agriculture and forest commodities Final Sector Consumption of products Consumption scenarios

7 What is new compared to other studies Global modelling, not case or country based A 'transition model' linking deforestation and land use changes An indicator: embedded/embodied deforestation in crops/products. Externality (like CO2 emissions, virtual water etc.) linking deforestation to the associated consumption of goods. raw commodities but also entire consumption sectors analysed, i.e.leather/textile 7

8 The limits of the study Data sets ( /10 for deforestation and apparent consumption; 2004 for final consumption analysis) reflecting FAO FRA/ FAOSTAT datasets limits (25% of deforestation remains unexplained) and modelling (GTAP limits) Forest degradation not quantified underestimation of illegal logging and unsustainable management practices Expert's assumption in building the transition model (attribution of weights to deforestation drivers/commodities production) Two-track modelling for apparent (LANDFLOW) and final consumption (GTAP) 8

9 Global deforestation - HOW MUCH: 239 million hectares of forest were lost between 1990 and 2008, an annual area of 13 million hectares (Mha). - WHERE: Major regional differences are present in this trend: South America is the hardest hit by deforestation (33% of global deforestation), followed by sub-saharan-africa (31%) and Southeast Asia (19%). 9

10 Causes of deforestation % 4% 27% 17% 52% 24% 26% 2% 17% 19% 60% 24% 2% 34% 24% 4% 17% 55% % 29% 2% Unexplained Natural hazards (esp. wildfire) Expansion of urban areas & infrastructure Industrial roundwood production (logging) Ruminant livestock production Crop production 10

11 Deforestation embodied in international trade A substantial part of the embodied deforestation remains in the country/region of production: - crops (two thirds), livestock (92%) and wood products (two thirds). The remaining part is exported to other regions. Oil crops (soybean and oil palm) and their derived products represent the largest share (63%) of this commodities export, followed by stimulants such as coffee and tea (11%), and fibre crops (8%). 11

12 Regional Trade flows (of crops): - main export regions are South America (64%), Southeast Asia (23%) and Sub-Saharan Africa (12%). - main import regions are: EU27 (39%), East Asia (21%), North Africa and West and Central Asia (16%). - For other commodities than agricultural crops, the export and import shares can be quite different. 12

13 deforestation and crops Soybean Maize Oil Palm Rice, Paddy Sugar cane Sorghum Groundnut Bean, Dry Cocoa Bean Cassava Millet Wheat Natural rubber Seed Cotton Other crops 1000 Ha Sub-Saharan Africa Central America South America South & East Asia Southeast Asia Rest of World Figure 3-6 Contribution of specific crops to deforestation associated with expansion of crop production, per crop

14 EU impact on deforestation deforestation associated with EU27 final consumption is 10% of worldwide deforestation embodied in commodities and products in 2004 ( ha). Consumption of oil crops (e.g. soybeans, palm oil) and derived products, as well as livestock products, had the main impact. 14

15 The land used by the EU27 for the production of its goods and services represents only half of the land associated with its consumption Mainly agricultural and food products, but also derived processed products such as furniture and clothing When aggregated per sector, food consumption dominates the impact on deforestation (60%). 15

16 Over the period , the EU27 imported almost 36% of all deforestation embodied in crop and livestock products traded between regions (9Mha of deforested land). The second ranked region in terms of net import of deforestation was Eastern Asia (including China and Japan), with 4.5 Mha over the same period. North America imported 1.9 Mha. 16

17 Main commodities /products into EU Soybean (cake and beans) from Brazil Meat products from Brazil Soybean (cake and beans) from Argentina From Nigeria and West Africa many crops (cocoa) Soybeans from Paraguay Palm oil from Indonesia Stimulants, fibers, rubber

18 Future trends: food sector - Average food consumption per capita in the EU27 is expected to stabilise but with a slightly growing EU27 population, additional land (and related land use) of 3 to 4 Mha will be needed by Slight behavioural changes in EU27 food consumption patterns, such as decreased meat consumption, could reduce the need for additional land by up to 10 Mha by A reduction in food waste could also significantly reduce the impact of EU consumption on deforestation. 18

19 Future trends: energy sector - Oil crops and the biofuel sector are expected to demand more land and could be the cause of additional deforestation. - For solid biomass, the study predicts an additional demand of 318 million m³ round wood from forests between 2010 and The bulk of this bioenergy will be in the form of wood pellets, increasingly being imported (EU demand for wood pellets is estimated to triple by 2020) 19

20 POLICY IDENTIFICATION Criteria have been developed to evaluate the relevance of policies to reduce the EU impact (at least one fulfilled): - Reduce the land use linked to the production of primary commodities at source; - Reduce the deforestation linked to the production of the identified primary commodities; - Reduce the embedded deforestation of products produced (efficiency of processing); - Contribute to the supply chain of commodities, products and services with no or lower deforestation impact; - Reduce EU consumption (in general, and more specifically of commodities, products and services having deforestation impacts at global scale) 20

21 IDENTIFIED POLICIES Climate and Renewable energy Common Agricultural Policy Forestry Strategy Biodiversity Strategy Sustainable Production and Consumption Trade, Investment Development Cooperation Research and Innovation 21

22 LIST OF POLICY PROPOSALS Out of 34, those scoring high are 5: - Extend the sustainability criteria for biofuels to other uses of the same crops (food, feed, products, materials); - Promote and strengthen FLEGT AP, and expand to other commodities - Mandatory labelling of the forest footprint of (food) products; - Increase the import tariffs of commodities that are associated with deforestation; - Attach sustainability criteria to the import of commodities that are associated with deforestation 22

23 Possibilities for political uptaking of the study results 7th Environment Action Programme (until 2020): amended after trilogue EC/EP/Council to include "considering the development of" an EU action plan on deforestation Overall frame "Resource Efficiency Roadmap" Sustainable Food Communication; study EU consumption impact on biodiversity; COM on responsible sourcing of minerals sustainability criteria for solid biomass REDD negotiations and informal working groups

24 NEXT STEPS Broader consultation needed with all stakeholders (MS, civil society, industry). Bilateral dialogues with third countries 1. meetings with experts and stakeholders in the last quarter of 2013 and during broad based public consultation via the web to seek additional views across the EU and beyond. The objectives will be to gather additional views to critically assess the results of the study and seek opinions on how to prioritise areas where future policy initiatives could be identified. You can signal similar initiatives/studies/contributions using the functional mailbox ENV DEFORESTATION on the study web page

25 Thank you for your attention