Tropical Forests and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Current Knowledge and Potential Future Scenarios

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1 Tropical Forests and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Current Knowledge and Potential Future Scenarios Simon L. Lewis 1 Oliver L. Phillips 1, Tim R. Baker 1, Yadvinder Malhi 2, Jon Lloyd 1 1 Earth & Biosphere Institute, School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK 2 School of Geography & the Environment, University of Oxford, UK

2 Tropical Forests and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Current Knowledge and Potential Future Scenarios Simon L. Lewis 1 Oliver L. Phillips 1, Tim R. Baker 1, Yadvinder Malhi 2, Jon Lloyd 1 Talk Outline 1. Overview Global Carbon Cycle Global Carbon Cycle over 1990s 3. Future scenarios

3 Tropical Forests: why are they important? Tropical forests cover ~10 % Earth s land surface BUT, contain ~40% of the globe s biomass carbon They are very productive systems, cycling large quantities of carbon with the atmosphere via photosynthesis and respiration Tropical forests contain 50-70% of Earth s species.

4 Therefore, Relatively small changes across the tropical forest biome may have large effects on the global carbon cycle, and hence the rate and magnitude of climate change. and Global environmental changes that alter tropical forests may have large effects on Earth s biodiversity.

5 Overview: Human-induced Global Carbon Cycle, direct carbon fluxes caused by human activity indirect carbon fluxes caused by human activity fossil fuel combustion ~283 Pg C land-use change ~180 Pg C net increase in atmospheric CO 2 ~174 Pg C net carbon flux from atmosphere to oceans ~129 Pg C residual carbon flux to terrestrial biosphere ~160 Pg C Cumulative totals, 1 Pg = 1 x10 15 g = 1 Giga-tonne = 1 billion metric tonnes

6 Overview: Annual Carbon fluxes over the 1990s direct carbon fluxes caused by human activity indirect carbon fluxes caused by human activity fossil fuel combustion 6.3 ± 0.4 Pg C a -1 land-use change 1-2 Pg C a -1 net increase in atmospheric CO ± 0.1 Pg C a -1 net carbon flux from atmosphere to oceans 2.1 ± 0.7 Pg C a -1 residual carbon flux to terrestrial biosphere 2-3 Pg C a -1 Annual totals, Pg = 1 x10 15 g

7 How big was the tropical Carbon sink in the 1990s? Atmospheric CO 2 measurements and atmospheric transport models show the tropics, as a whole, to be neutral or a net source of C Therefore, as Land-use change - tropical deforestation - contributes 1-2 Pg C a -1 Natural sink in terrestrial tropics thought to be 0-2 Pg C a -1

8 Long-term monitoring plots Plot Tropical Forest

9 Distribution of change in total vegetation biomass carbon from 59 plots across South America over late 20 th century. No. plots Biomass change / Mg C ha -1 yr ± 0.22 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 8

10 Changes within 50 South American plots 2.5 Interval 1 Interval Annual rate, % 0.5 P<0.001 P< s 1990s Annual rate, % Stand BA growth Stand BA mortality Stem recruitment Stem mortality 0.0 Biomass Growth Biomass Mortality Relative increase = 2 to 5 % a -1

11 The most parsimonious explanation is that an increase in plant resource availability (CO 2?) is increasing net primary productivity Net C sink Accelerated growth Mortality increasing, but lagging behind the accelerated growth

12 Change in biomass carbon across forest plots across three continents over the late 20 th century. 1 Mg C ha-1 a Africa S. Am Australia 0.5 % a -1 increase in biomass carbon. If tropical Asia is acting similarly, total tropical forest sink of 1 Pg C a -1

13 The Future Will remaining tropical forest become a C source in the future? Balance between photosynthesis and respiration Biodiversity change Will large-scale tropical forest collapse occur? The drought route The fire route

14 Will remaining forest become a C source? If higher atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are increasing forest growth causing the sink, this cannot continue indefinitely, as other factors will limit growth Rising temperatures may increase respiration costs and will eventually decrease photosynthesis rates Biodiversity changes may reduce, shut down, or reverse the sink.

15 biomass decrease? biodiversity changes increasing forest dynamics faster growth

16 Stand BA growth Stand BA mo rtality Stem recruitment Stem mortality Annual rate, % biomass decrease biodiversity changes increasing forest dynamics faster growth 2.5 Interval 1 Interval s 1990s 0.0 Biomass Growth

17 biomass decrease biodiversity changes 2.5 increasing forest dynamics faster growth Annual tree turnover, % Year

18 biomass decrease biodiversity changes increasing forest dynamics Growth rate difference, mm a Increasing genera No change genera Decreasing genera Laurance et al. 2004, Science faster growth

19 biomass decrease biodiversity changes Aboveground biomass ha Turnover (stem dynamics), % a-1 increasing forest dynamics Tropical forests to become a major C source? faster growth

20 Tropical Forest Collapse: the drought route First GCM model to include dynamic vegetation and a carbon cycle responsive to it, showed massive die-back of the E. Amazon, due to drought, later this century. Resulting large flux of carbon further accelerates warming and droughts, a potential dangerous feedback.

21 Tropical Forest Collapse: the fire route Tropical forests can burn if they get dry Rapid carbon losses As the world warms-up and dries-out more forest can potentially burn. Potential dangerous feedback: with warmer and more frequent and severe dry periods more forest would likely burn, thus further increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and resulting warmer and periodically drier conditions.

22 Conclusions Tropical forests are a C source from deforestation, and probably a C sink in remaining forest, both 1-2 Pg C a -1. Even remote tropical forests are responding to global environmental changes, which may be having marked effects on Earth s biodiversity. Biodiversity changes alongside a warming and periodically drying world suggest that it is unlikely that the worlds remaining tropical forest will continue to be a significant carbon sink over the 21 st century. Plausible mechanisms exist that show forest-human action-climate feedbacks may greatly accelerate the rate of climate change over the coming decades.

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