TERMS OF REFERENCE Individual Contractor. Phnom Penh Cambodia and Home Based Expected Place of Travel:

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1 TERMS OF REFERENCE Individual Contractor 1. Assignment Information Assignment Title: International Senior Forest Economist Cluster/Project: Policy and Advocacy Unit Post Level: Senior Specialist Contract Type: Individual Contractor (IC) Duty Station: Phnom Penh Cambodia and Home Based Expected Place of Travel: NA Contract Duration: 35 days, and from December 25, 2016 to May 15, 2. Project Description Over the last two decades, Cambodia achieved remarkable economic growth and graduated from a low- to a lower middle-income country (World Bank 2016). Poverty rates declined from 53 percent in 2004 to 18 percent in While economic growth is leading to new opportunities for increased income and shared prosperity, the situation is still fragile. Some 30 percent of the population is still considered near poor, and could fall back into poverty (World Bank, 2005 and 2014). Additionally, many of the drivers of growth lean heavily on the country s natural resources, which have been negatively impacted by the expanding economy. Economic Land Concessions (ELCs), Social Land Concessions (SLCs), hydropower dams, mining and road building in rural areas have helped fuel the recent economic growth. ELCs for around 2.6 million ha have been granted, 80 percent of them are in forests and 14 percent in protected areas 1. While ELCs and the other activities have rendered economic benefits, they have often come at the expense of Cambodia s natural resources, particularly forests. Forest cover declined from 73% in 1965 to 57 percent in 2011, and to 50 percent in 2014 (RGC 2015), mainly due to their conversion to agriculture or rubber plantations within ELCs. They have also been degraded from unsustainable and illegal logging practices. Presently, there are only around 9 million ha of forests remaining in Cambodia. These are principally comprised of tropical lowland forests, found mainly in the northeast; closed forests, near the Gulf of Tonkin; and closed deciduous forest in the northwest. Within these geographic areas there are four forest types; evergreen (34 percent), semi-evergreen (12 percent), deciduous -- including dry dipterocarp forests (44 percent) and others (10 percent) comprised of regeneration, stunted forests, mangroves, inundated forests, tree plantations and bamboo 2. Cambodia s forests provide wood for commerce and households and play an important role in maintaining the environment and livelihoods of rural communities, where 80 percent of the population lives 3. Fuelwood use, estimated at 5.5 million tons annually, is considered very high. About 2.9 million tons of fuelwood is used for household purposes each year, with the remainder going to industry, primarily garment factories 4. With essentially no source of sustainable wood in the country, wood needed for commercial applications, as well as cooking and heating is rapidly being depleted. Should this situation remain unchecked, both industries and millions of rural families will be negatively impacted. 1 Forest Trends Conversion Timber, Forest Monitoring, and Land-Use Governance in Cambodia. 95 p. 2 MAFF Readiness Plan Idea Note (R-PIN) GERES.

2 Forests protect watersheds, reduce soil erosion, mitigate storm flow and slow the sedimentation of reservoirs, all of which can jeopardize hydro projects. With six large hydro projects already on line in Cambodia, one near completion, and another 12 planned, ensuring good upland management of forests is becoming even more critical to ensure the long-term sustainability of these investments 56. Forested watersheds also help shield croplands in basins from excessive runoff and flooding where most of the population is centered. With 33 percent of GDP in agriculture, one of the highest worldwide, good upstream management of watersheds to protect livelihoods and croplands downstream is also important for the economy. Cambodia s forests are habitats for biodiversity, home to millions of people and contribute to the regulation of greenhouse gasses (GHGs). The country is working toward a national strategy for addressing climate change mitigation in the forest sector with financial assistance from the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) and just received US$5 million in additional financing. The country s forests also have both economic and spiritual value to forest communities. Such groups frequently rely on forests to supplement their food supply, to provide wood for local construction, and for non-timber forest products (NTFPs), such as medicinal plants, bamboo, mushrooms and resins. When forests are destroyed or degraded this puts these vulnerable rural people at heightened risk. As logging concessions are not presently active, wood supply in the country comes mainly from conversion timber from ELCs and hydropower projects, community forestry, imports and confiscations 7. With the possible exception of community forestry, none of these sources is sustainable or managed and timber from hydro projects is finite and unreliable. Given the current moratorium on ELCs, forest concessions, and the government s commitment to halt illegal logging and the lack of sustainable management, overall domestic timber supply is becoming constrained. Identifying, promoting and developing financially viable and sustainable forest production models is an important issue for which the government needs recommendations. 3. Scope of Work As an international consultant, the Senior Economist will provide guidance to the national data collection consultant in the development of data capture spreadsheets, variables to assess, gap filling methods, calculations, and other items to develop a study on financial and economic analysis of around 3 to 5 production models in the forest sector, for example, certified plantations, small and large fuelwood production in native forests, timber production from native forests and ELCs. The analysis would be made to show investment returns with and without carbon credits. The consultant will liaise closely with United Development Programme (UNDP), the Forest Investment Programme (FIP) team, Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC), and other stakeholders. (i) (ii) Planning and Staging: Together with the national consultant, meet with the key stakeholders and UNDP, FIP, RGC, Industry, and NGOs to define the specific production models to include in the financial analysis. Review and provide advice on the preliminary data set developed by the data collection consultant for overall integrity, quality and gaps. Critically analyze the preliminary analysis in order to determine any shortcomings in data or techniques and make recommendations for improvements. Production and Cost Summary: For each production model, identify and list the project inputs, participants, processes, outputs. For each of these activities, help the data consultant to 5 International Rivers Cambodia in 6 Hydroworld Technical Working Group on Forestry Reform Report on Forestry Reform.

3 summarize and improve information on the market costs of the inputs, for labor, management, equipment fixed and operating costs, land, loans, or other relevant expenses. Similarly, estimate the value of the products produced by each component at market prices. Collect information in the field required for the estimates through review of project records, interviews with stakeholders and beneficiaries. Information for plantation should be organized and collected according to species, site variables/quality, location (such as district and province), among others. (iii) (iv) Preliminary financial Analysis In cooperation with the data consultant, based on the production and cost summary, calculate financial returns for each production model with and without carbon credits and based on market costs and prices using cash flow analyses and capital budgeting criteria, such as New Present Value (NPV), Land Expectation Value (LEV), Financial Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Benefit-Cost Ratio (B:C ratio). Calculate the IRR for each model and for discrete activities required to show meaningful financial analyses that support the project objectives. Final Financial Analysis and presentation In cooperation with the data consultant, quality control and update the financial analysis for the various production models. Verify results in the field with stakeholders and co-present the findings in a workshop/meeting. 4. Expected Outputs and Deliverables All written outputs to be developed in English in WORD and data tables and analyses in EXCEL. N Deliverables/Outputs Estimated Duration to Complete 1 Inception report representing methodologies for the financial analysis, production models, data sources, data capture tables and a work plan. 2 Production and Cost Summary with excel data tables including information on the market costs of the inputs, for labor, management, equipment, fixed and operating costs, land, loans, or other relevant expenses along with estimated value of the products produced at market prices. 3 Preliminary Financial Analysis with excel data tables Based on the production and cost summary, calculate financial returns for each project component based on market costs and prices using cash flow analyses and capital budgeting criteria, such as New Present Value (NPV), Financial Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Benefit-Cost Ratio (B:C ratio) and Land Expectation Value (LEV). Calculate the IRR for the various production models to show meaningful financial analyses. 4 Technical report of the financial evaluation and presentation of the report. The report shall include summary of methods, tables showing results, and references. The report should highlight best and worst Target Due Dates 5 days January 31, 10 days March 20, 10 days March 31, 10 days April 31, Review and Approvals Required Senior Policy Advisor, UNDP

4 returns and compare the findings to comparable findings from other countries and situations. Total # of Days: 35 days 5. Institutional Arrangement Overall management for the implementation of the exercise will be under responsibility of the Senior Policy Advisor, through the Environmental Policy Specialist who will coordinate with the RGC and the FIP team for overseeing the study and providing technical inputs. While the reporting is to be developed with autonomy and independence on the part of incumbent, it will be subjected to quality assurance of the UNDP Cambodia Country Office and the FIP team and potentially a peer review of UNDP regional office is considered if necessary. 6. Duration of the Work Person-days for the total assignment is 35 days. Assignment is expected to start from December 25 th 2016, and final reports submitted by May 15 th. 7. Duty Station The duty station for this assignment is home country and Phnom Penh with at least 2 trips to Cambodia with a minimum number of stays in Phnom Penh for 20 days. Travelling costs in Phnom Penh will be covered by the consultant. Selected individual contract(s) who is expected to travel to the Country Office (CO) to undertake the assignment in the country (Cambodia) is required to undertake the Basic Security in the Field (BSIF) training ( prior to travelling. CD ROMs must be made available for use in environments where access to technology poses a challenge. 8. Minimum Qualifications of the Individual Contractor Education: A minimum of a Master s Degree in Forest or Natural Resource Economics or other related discipline. A PhD degree is a plus. Experience: At least 10 years of progressively responsible experience in the field of forest economics, Prior working experience in financial and economic evaluations of forestry operations. Experience working in Asia and Cambodia is an asset. Competencies Demonstrated abilities in financial and economic analyses in the forestry sector assessed by a sample analysis Language Fluency in English Requirement: Other Requirements: Sample financial and economic analyses in forestry sector

5 9. Criteria for Evaluation of Level of Technical Compliance of Individual Contractor Technical Evaluation Criteria A minimum of a Master s Degree in Forest or Natural Resource Economics or other related discipline. A PhD degree is a plus. At least 10 years of progressively responsible experience in the field of forest economics, Prior working experience in financial and economic evaluations of forestry operations. Experience working in Asia and Cambodia is an asset. Demonstrated abilities in financial and economic analyses in the forestry sector assessed by a sample analysis Obtainable Score Total Obtainable Score: Payment Milestones This is a fixed out-put based contract price regardless of extension of the herein specific duration. The consultant will be paid on a lump sum basis under the following installments. N Outputs/Deliveries Payment Schedule Payment Amount 1 Upon satisfactory completion of Deliverable n.1 February 5, 20 % 2 Upon satisfactory completion of Deliverable n.2 and n.3 March 31, 40% 3 Upon satisfactory completion of Deliverable n.4 May 10, 40%

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