Options for Forest Management for Coping with Climate change in South Asia. Prof N H Ravindranath Indian Institute of Science Bangalore -12

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1 Options for Forest Management for Coping with Climate change in South Asia Prof N H Ravindranath Indian Institute of Science Bangalore -12

2 Forests and South Asia (Total area = 76 Mha; 19% of land area) 70,000 60,000 50, Area ('000 ha) 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - B anglades h India Nepal P akis tan S ri L anka

3 Why worry about climate change and Forests Forest accounts for nearly 4 billion ha globally and nearly 20% in south Asia. Forests provides a number of services biodiversity raw materials for industry livelihoods to large number of forest dependent and rural communities Forests are critical for protection of from floods, cyclones - e.g., MANGROVES Forests provide large mitigation potential Climate change could impact biodiversity & mitigation potential Adaptation requires long-term planning.

4 Outline for presentation 1. Climate change projections. 2. Projected impacts of Climate change on forests. 3. Adaptation options / strategies / policies. 4. Options for Forest management under changing climate

5 Temperature Rise Rainfall Projections

6 IPCC 2007; IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST ECOSYSTEMS Observed discernable impact of climate change on forests and forest functions literature A-third of the known biodiversity is likely to face the risk of extinction Likely changes structure and functions such as diversity, maintenance, productivity, carbon sequestration, water cycling, etc., projected Enhanced natural disturbances such as fires, pests and extreme climatic events

7 ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE IMPACTS ON FOREST ECOSYSTEMS IN INDIA Hadley Centre climate model HadRM3 regional climate model outputs GHG Scenarios A2 (740 ppm) and B2 (575 ppm CO 2 ) Vegetation model for assessing climate impacts BIOME 4; Equilibrium model Initiated dynamic global vegetation model based assessment.

8 BIOME MODEL BASED IMPACTS ON FOREST BIOMES (B2 SCENARIO)

9 IBIS - Impact of climate change on forest types under climate change scenario SRES A2 ( ) 1: tropical evergreen forest / woodland, 2: tropical deciduous forest / woodland, 3. temperate evergreen broadleaf forest / woodland, 4: temperate evergreen conifer forest / woodland, 5: temperate deciduous forest / woodland, 6: boreal evergreen forest / woodland, 7: boreal deciduous forest / woodland, 8: mixed forest / woodland, 9: savanna, 10: grassland / steppe, 11: dense shrubland, 12: open shrubland, 13: tundra, 14: desert, 15. polar desert / rock / ice

10 PERCENTAGE OF GRIDS UNDER DIFFERENT FOREST TYPES UNDERGOING CHANGE under A2 & B2 GHG SCENARIOS Western Ghat semi-evergreen Western Ghat evergreen forest Mangrove Spruce Khair forest Deodar Hardwoods Conifers mix Deciduous forest Salai forest Mixed conifer Blue-Pine(Kail) Fir SCRUB Miscellaneous forest Up-land Hardwoods Chir-pine Teak Sal Fir-Spruce Bamboo Forest Khasi pine Depterocarpus (Gurjan) Hollong % grids undergoing change A2 B2

11 Impact of climate change on forest in Pakistan Shifts in forest types; Cold and temperate conifers will show a northward shift, pushing against the cold conifer/mixed woodland, The average NPP increase of different biomes, over the base year of 1990 is estimated as 12% in the year 2020 and 19% in the year (calculated) under the climate change scenarios.

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13 Mitigation and adaptation options exist in forest sector

14 Why Adaptation? When uncertainty in Impact Assessment Impacts will be irreversible; e.g., loss of biodiversity Inertia in response to changing climate Long gestation period in development & implementation of adaptation practices Waiting for full knowledge high risk Large ecological, economic and social implications Focus on win win adaptation options

15 Potential Adaptation practices Anticipatory planting of species - along latitude and altitude - promote assisted natural regeneration Promote mixed species forestry - species differ in temperature tolerance. Develop and implement fire protection and management practices. Adopt thinning, sanitation and other practices. Promote in situ and ex situ conservation of genetic diversity. Develop drought and pest resistance in commercial tree species. Adopt sustainable forest management practices.

16 Adaptation Policies Incorporate adaptation practices in forest planning: short term and long term. Promote forest conservation: since biodiversity rich forest are less vulnerable due to varying temperature tolerance. Halt forest fragmentation to promote migration of species. Link protected areas and create corridors to promote migration. Promote community forestry. Capacity building to develop and implement adaptation strategies.

17 Limitations Limitations of reliable regional climate projections Limitations of dynamic vegetation models specific to tropical forests Limitations of data on vegetation, soil, water, etc parameters for modeling Absence of adaptation models. Absence of long term monitoring studies Development and Adoption of DGV models to assess transient responses not assessed

18 Impact of Climate Change on other Natural Ecosystems 1. Inland Wetlands 2. Mangroves 3. Coral reefs 4. Montane grasslands 5. Animal species; habitats of mammals and other species 6. Mountain ecosystems Limited or no studies in south Asia Based on published studies & IPCC conclusions all natural ecosystems likely to be adversely impacted

19 Research NETWORK; Impacts and Adaptation & Mitigation 1. Ecological research on plant and animal species and communities in relation to climate variability and change 2. Dynamic vegetation modeling of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems, biodiversity and adaptation 3. Impact of climate change on mitigation potential, carbon sinks and adaptation 4. Assessment of Adaptation practices, strategies and policies 6. Policy Analysis Research and Support for Climate Negotiations