Regeneration / Young Stand Models

Transcription

1 Many of the standard growth and yield models that are currently in use start with stands that have passed the regeneration phase of development (i.e., they start with stands with ages of 15 or 20 years and older) and predict their development up to maturity simulated stand development established stand models

2 To add regeneration to these models has required the development of separate regeneration/young-stand models to predict stand development up to 15 or 20 years. simulated stand development young stand models established stand models

3 A fully developed regeneration/young-stand model will have the following capabilities: 1. It can predict the number, species and initial sizes of new trees entering the stand after any natural or man caused disturbance; 2. For the newly established natural regeneration and for planted regeneration, it can predict the development and mortality of the trees, the competing vegetation and their interaction up to an age/size where the tree and/or stand attributes can be passed on to a standard growth and yield model that will continue to grow the stand to rotation age;

4 A fully developed regeneration/young-stand model will have the following capabilities (cont d): 3. It can allow the user to treat the stand through the control of competing vegetation (by any method desired) or through precommercial thinning (again, by any method desired), and then predict the resulting development of the trees, the competing vegetation and their interaction up to an age/size where the tree and/or stand attributes can be passed on to a standard growth and yield model.

5 Precommercial thinning

6 Competing vegetation control

7 To date, four regeneration/young-stand models have been developed and have seen fairly wide usage in the Pacific Northwest: 1. The regeneration establishment and small tree growth models in the FVS (PROGNOSIS) growth and yield system. 2. The SYSTUM-1 regeneration/young-stand model which has been developed to interface with either the ORGANON or CACTOS growth and yield models. 3. The RVMM regeneration/young-stand model which has been developed to interface with either the ORGANON, FVS (PROGNOSIS), or SPS growth and yield models. 4. The CONIFERS regeneration/young-stand model which has been developed to interface with either the ORGANON, FVS (PROGNOSIS), or CACTOS growth and yield models.

8 FVS (PROGNOSIS) Regeneration Establishment and Small Tree Growth Models The regeneration approach taken by the FVS (PROGNOSIS) growth and yield system uses two models: A regeneration establishment model A small tree growth model

9 Regeneration establishment model: Predicts the species, height and expansion factors for the trees regenerated after disturbance and Adds the new trees to the tree list of the main FVS (PROGNOSIS) growth and yield system. Small tree model (trees with dbh < 3.0"): Projects the regeneration trees (i.e., projections are not done by the regeneration establishment model itself) Passes any trees that attain dbh>3.0 to the large tree model in FVS (PROGNOSIS)

10 FVS (PROGNOSIS) Regeneration Establishment Model There are two major steps in the model: 1. Predict whether a 1/300 acre plot in the stand will be stocked or not (i.e., at least one seedling on the plot), using a logistic equation. 2. For stocked plots, predict the number of trees per acre that will be on the plot, the species of the trees on the plot, and the height of each tree on the plot.

11 Probability of stocked plot FOR Logistic model Probability of stocked plot PM 1.0 exp[ ( 1 X X k X k ) 1 0 X

12 FVS (PROGNOSIS) Young Stand Model For stands that have been actually treated before input into the PROGNOSIS/FVS model, Regeneration is predicted 10 and 20 years after the initialization of the run [most variants of FVS (PROGNOSIS) have a 10 year growth cycle]. For stands that have received hypothetical (simulated) treatments within the FVS (PROGNOSIS) model, Regeneration is predicted both 10 and 20 years after disturbance. Regeneration is added to the existing tree list at each cycle, and the FVS (PROGNOSIS) model then fills in the missing dbh's and crown ratios for the trees. The inputted regeneration trees are then grown using the small tree (dbh < 3.0") model.

13 FVS (PROGNOSIS) Young Stand Model Precommercial thinning is done within the FVS (PROGNOSIS) model itself using FVS (PROGNOSIS) standard thinning routines. Cover of non-tree species (i.e., competing vegetation) on each plot is predicted in the COVER model (Moeur 1985). Currently, there is no interaction between the competing vegetation and the development of the regeneration. Currently, five variants of FVS (PROGNOSIS) have regeneration establishment models: Southeast Alaska & Coastal British Columbia, Central Idaho, Eastern Montana, Kootenai, Kaniksu & Tally Lake, and Northern Idaho.

14 SYSTUM-1 SYSTUM-1 (Ritchie and Powers 1993) was developed using existing data located in inland northern California and southwestern Oregon. The model can be used to predict the early development (ages 3 to 20 years) of even-aged plantations of regeneration (composed of ponderosa pine, sugar pine, incense- cedar, Douglas-fir and/or white fir) and their associated competing vegetation created after clearcutting. The model includes the interaction between regeneration and competing vegetation. Treatments built into the model include precommercial thinning and reduction of percent cover of the competing vegetation.

15 SYSTUM-1: Single-tree/distance-independent growth and yield model. To run the model requires the following information: 1. A tree list 2. Stand information 3. Competing vegetation measurements for each plot

16 SYSTUM-1: Single-tree/distance-independent model 1. A tree list with the following recorded for each tree: a. Plot number b. Species c. Total height d. DBH e. Crown ratio f. Expansion factor Ideally, the tree list should come from an inventory of the stand with all values measured. However, if dbh and/or crown ratio are not measured on all (or any) of the trees, then SYSTUM-1 will predict and fill in the missing values.

17 SYSTUM-1: Single-tree/distance-independent model 2. Stand information: a. Site index b. Stand age c. Aspect d. Slope e. Elevation

18 SYSTUM-1: Single-tree/distance-independent model 3. Competing vegetation measurements for each plot: a. Percent cover for each of up to 6 competing vegetation species b. Average height for each of up to 6 competing vegetation species

19 RVMM - Regional Vegetation Management Model Developed for 2 zones of northwest Oregon and western Washington: Coast Ranges (Shula et al. 1998a): Forks, WA south to Coos Bay, Or Cascade Mountains (Shula et al. 1998b): Concrete, WA south to Oakridge, OR In both zones: 98 fixed area, permanent research plots established Each plot re-measured after 2 yrs

20 RVMM - Regional Vegetation Management Model Predicts early development (ages 0 to 20 years) of even-aged plantations of Douglas-fir created after clearcutting. Includes the interaction between regeneration and competing vegetation (hardwood trees, shrubs and herbs).

21 RVMM: Single-tree/distance-independent model To run the model requires the following information: 1. A tree list 2. Stand information 3. Non-tree competing vegetation measurements

22 RVMM: Single-tree/distance-independent model Outputs from RVMM include: 1.A stand summary table 2.Graphs of tree attributes over diameter 3.The creation of an ORGANON input file 4.The creation of an FVS input file 5.The creation of a SPS input file The last three output options allow the user to interface RVMM with either the ORGANON, FVS, or SPS growth and yield models for "older" stands (i.e., stands > 20 yrs old).

23 CONIFERS (Ritchie 1999) Developed using permanent, research quality regeneration plots located in 109 stands in southwest Oregon and northern California Predicts early development (ages 2 to 26 years) of even-aged plantations of mixed or pure species regenerated after clear cutting Primary coniferous tree species: Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine; secondary coniferous tree species white fir, sugar pine and incense-cedar Primary hardwood trees species: tanoak, Pacific madrone and golden chinkapin; with secondary hardwood tree species Oregon white oak and California black oak.

24 CONIFERS (Ritchie 1999) Primary shrub species are deerbrush, snowbrush, greenleaf manzanita and white leaf manzanita Secondary shrub species: Ribes, California hazel and ocean spray Model simulates interaction between regeneration and competing vegetation Treatments built into the model include precommercial thinning and release from competing vegetation.

25 CONIFERS: Single-plant/distance-independent growth and yield model; i.e., it grows not only a sample of single trees but also a sample of single shrubs. To run the model requires the following information: 1. A tree list 2. Stand productivity measure 3. Minimum shrub measurements for each plot 4. Alternative plant-level shrub information

26 CONIFERS: Single-plant/distance-independent growth model Outputs from CONIFERS include: 1. Plot level and stand level summary tables 2. The creation of an ORGANON input file 3. The creation of a FVS input file 4. The creation of a CACTOS input file The last three output options allow the user to interface CONIFERS with either ORGANON, FVS or CACTOS growth and yield models for "older" stands (i.e., stands >20 yrs old).

27 CONIFERS: Single-plant/distance-independent growth model To run the model requires the following information: 1. A tree list with the following recorded for each tree: a. Plot number b. Species c. Total height d. DBH (recommended) e. Crown ratio (recommended) f. Crown width (recommended) g. Expansion factor Ideally, the tree list is from measured values. If dbh, crown width, and/or crown ratio are not measured on any trees, then CONIFERS will fill in the missing values.

28 CONIFERS: Single-plant/distance-independent growth model To run the model requires the following information: 2. Stand productivity alternatives: a. Site index of Douglas-fir or ponderosa pine b. Optionally, site water holding capacity and mean annual precipitation

29 CONIFERS: Single-plant/distance-independent growth model To run the model requires the following information: 3. Required minimum shrub measurements for each plot: a. Plot number b. Shrub species c. Percent cover for the shrub species d. Average height for the shrub species

30 CONIFERS: Single-plant/distance-independent growth model To run the model requires the following information: 4. Alternate, plant-level shrub input: a. Plot number b. Shrub species c. Total height d. Basal diameter (recommended) e. Crown width (recommended) f. Expansion factor

31 FVS (PROGNOSIS) Regeneration Establishment and Small Tree Growth Models The regeneration establishment model found in FVS (PROGNOSIS) (Ferguson and Crookston 1984 and 1991; Ferguson et al. 1986) was developed from data collected on 12,128 1/300-acre plots located in northern Idaho and western Montana.

32 FVS (PROGNOSIS) Regeneration Establishment Model The intent of the model is to predict both planted and natural regeneration at a future date after application of any of the following harvest cutting and site preparation: Regeneration harvests: 1. Clearcut 2. Seedtree 3. Shelterwood 4. Selection Site preparation treatments: 1. None 2. Mechanical 3. Burn

33 The information needed to run the regeneration model include: 1. Habitat type of the plot 2. Aspect of the plot 3. Slope of the plot 4. Elevation of the stand 5. Topographic position of the plot 6. Geographic location of the stand 7. Residual overstory basal area on the plot 8. Residual overstory species composition on the plot 9. Time since disturbance of the plot 10. Site preparation method used on the plot 11. Year of planting for the stand 12. Species planted in the stand 13. Number of trees per acre planted in the stand 14. Percent survival at the end of the cycle for the stand 15. Seedling age at time of planting for the stand

34 SYSTUM-1: Single-tree/distance-independent model SYSTUM-1 also allows the user to generate a tree list in two ways. In both methods, the user inputs certain values concerning the stand to be generated and from these values the heights and expansion values for the trees on each plot are determined.

35 SYSTUM-1: Single-tree/distance-independent model Method 1: Generates a tree list for any stand age between 3 and 20 years. It requires the following inputs: a. Either the maximum and minimum tree heights by species, or (preferably) the average tree height and the standard deviation of tree heights by species b. Number of sample trees to generate for each species c. The expansion factor for each sample tree

36 SYSTUM-1: Single-tree/distance-independent model Method 2: Generates a 3-yr-old stand (authors consider it unreliable) It requires the following inputs: a. Aspect, slope and elevation of the plot b. Number of sample trees to generate for each species c. The expansion factor for each sample tree

37 SYSTUM-1: Single-tree/distance-independent model SYSTUM-1 will also generate the percent cover and average height of the cover given the following input: 1. The age of the competing vegetation 2. The site class (high/110, medium/80, low/50) 3. The species of the competing vegetation Disclaimer: Actual measurements are considered more reliable than generating the values

38 SYSTUM-1: Single-tree/distance-independent model Outputs from SYSTUM-1 include: 1. A stand summary table 2. Graphs of average stand attributes over stand age 3. The creation of an ORGANON input file 4. The creation of a CACTOS input file The last two output options allow the user to interface SYSTUM-1 with either the ORGANON or CACTOS growth and yield models for "older" stands (i.e., stands over 20 years of age).

39 To date, four regeneration/young-stand models have been developed and have seen fairly wide usage in the Pacific Northwest: 1. The regeneration establishment and small tree growth models in the FVS (PROGNOSIS) growth and yield system. 2. The SYSTUM-1 regeneration/young-stand model which has been developed to interface with either the ORGANON or CACTOS growth and yield models. 3. The RVMM regeneration/young-stand model which has been developed to interface with either the ORGANON, FVS (PROGNOSIS), or SPS growth and yield models. 4. The CONIFERS regeneration/young-stand model which has been developed to interface with either the ORGANON, FVS (PROGNOSIS), or CACTOS growth and yield models.

40 A fully developed regeneration/young-stand model will have the following capabilities: 1. Predict the number, species and initial sizes of new trees (recruitment) 2. Predict early stand vegetation dynamics: i. Development and mortality of trees ii. iii. Change in competing vegetation cover Interaction of crop trees and competing vegetation 3. Implement silvicultural treatments: i. Control of competing vegetation ii. Precommercial thinning

41 General format: INPUT: (GENERATE for bare ground) tree list competing vegetation cover MODEL: tree growth competing vegetation dynamics effects of competing vegetation cover effects of precommercial thinning OUTPUT: tree list (formatted for ORGANON, FVS, CACTOS and/or FPS) competing vegetation cover

42 tree list competing vegetation cover MODEL: (generate tree list) tree growth competing vegetation dynamics effects of competing vegetation cover effects of precommercial thinning tree list (formatted for ORGANON, FVS, CACTOS and/or FPS) competing vegetation cover

43 RVMM - Regional Vegetation Management Model Coast Range version allows minor components of western hemlock or Sitka spruce and includes competing hardwood tree vegetation from red alder, bigleaf maple, bitter cherry, willow, vine maple, hazel and cascara. Cascade Mountain version allows minor components of western hemlock or Pacific yew and includes competing hardwood tree vegetation from red alder, black cottonwood, tanoak, bitter cherry, willow, vine maple, hazel and cascara. Treatments built into the model include precommercial thinning and reduction of percent cover of the competing vegetation.

44 RVMM: Single-tree/distance-independent model To run the model requires the following information: 1. A tree list with the following recorded for each tree: a. Tree number b. Species c. Total height d. DBH (if total height > 4.5-feet) e. Crown width for Douglas-fir only (optional) f. Height to crown base for Douglas-fir only (optional) g. Expansion factor

45 RVMM: Single-tree/distance-independent model To run the model requires the following information: 1. A tree list with the following recorded for each tree: a. Tree number b. Species c. Total height d. DBH or D B e. DF Crown width f. DF Height to crown base g. Expansion factor Ideally, the tree list is from measured values. Each tree must have DBH or D B (diameter at 6 inches); if missing RVMM will fill in missing values. Similarly, if crown width or height to crown base for a Douglas-fir tree is not measured, RVMM will fill in the missing values.

46 RVMM: Single-tree/distance-independent model To run the model requires the following information: 2. Stand information: a. Site index b. Plantation age c. Number of years to breast height d. Aspect e. Slope f. Elevation

47 RVMM: Single-tree/distance-independent model To run the model requires the following information: 3. Non-tree competing vegetation measurements for each plot: a.percent cover for herbs b.percent cover for shrubs c.average height for shrubs

48 Start 6 March 2015