2017/18 Crop Market Outlook & Strategies

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "2017/18 Crop Market Outlook & Strategies"

Transcription

1 2017/18 Crop Market Outlook & Strategies Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist Director Burdick Center for Cooperatives (o) (c) NDSU Extension Service ND Agricultural Experiment Station Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied Economics

2 Key Points U.S. production (yield) is strong, but demand is also very good. Export pace and S.A. production is current focus. Geopolitical events and trade negotiations are the wildcards. Picking the top is nearly impossible! Strategies: Make several smaller sales. Place sell orders at key price levels in advance.

3 World Soybean Prod, Use & Stocks/Use (Million Metric Ton) Stocks-to-Use Total Production Total Use Million Metric Tons Stocks-to-Use Ratio Jan. 12, 2017 USDA WASDE & PSD Custom Query

4 Billion Bushels U.S. Soybean Total Prod. & Use (Billion Bushels) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Use Stocks to Use Ratio Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Oil Yearbook Table 3

5 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017

6 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Private estimates: Average = 49.5 High = 50.0 Low =49.0 Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017

7 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Total Production is fifth record year in a row! (2.2% above last year s record) Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017

8 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, U.S. Soybean Use Crushings Exports Seed & Residual Million Bushels 2000/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /18 Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Oil Yearbook Table 3

9 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table If correct, Crushings would be a another new record due to increased feed usage and strong export demand for meal. (2.7% increase) U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017

10 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) RFS for biodiesel is very important in today s market. Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. 32.6% of soybean oil is forecast to be used in biodiesel. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017

11 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Exports are forecast to decrease 1.0% from last year due to slow start to export season. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017

12 3,000,000 Weekly U.S. Soybean Export Sales (09/01/ /18/2018) 2,500,000 Metric Tons/Week 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug USDA FSA Weekly Export Sales Report

13 U.S. Soybean Export Destinations (1,000 Metric Ton) Country 2011/ / / / / /17 China 23, , , , , ,148.3 Mexico 3, , , , , ,665.0 Indonesia 1, , , , , ,296.9 Japan 1, , , , , ,137.2 Netherlands , , , ,044.9 Taiwan , , , , , Soybean Exports by Country FAS Online

14 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Will the dispute with North Korea impact trade relations with China? Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017

15 Ocean Vessel Movements in Asia Jan. 29, 2017

16 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Stocks to Use Ratio is forecast to increase from 7.2% to 11.1% Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Total Production is increasing faster than Use. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017

17 Billion Bushels U.S. Soybean Total Prod. & Use (Billion Bushels) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Use Stocks to Use Ratio Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Oil Yearbook Table 3

18 Mar. CBOT Soybean Pricing Points DTN Prophet X am

19 Historical Soybean Production (Million Metric Ton) Million Metric Ton United States Brazil Argentina Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & PSD Tables 21, 22 and 23

20

21

22 Brazilian Percent Soil Moisture Jan. 21, 2018 SMOS Hazard (wet) 90% 100% Optimum 50% 80% Hazard (dry) 0% 40% USDA FAS Crop Explorer

23 Argentine Percent Soil Moisture Jan. 21, 2018 SMOS Hazard (wet) 90% 100% Optimum 50% 80% Hazard (dry) 0% 40% USDA FAS Crop Explorer

24 World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use (Million Metric Ton) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Dom. Use Million Metric Tons Stocks to Use Ratio USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017 & PSD Custom Query

25 World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use Million Metric Tons (Million Metric Ton) Who Stocks to Use holds wheat ending Total Production Total Dom. Use stocks? 2016/ /18 China: 43.9% 47.8% U.S. : 12.7% 10.0% Russia: 4.3% 6.1% Stocks to Use Ratio USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017 & PSD Custom Query

26 World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use (Million Metric Ton) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Dom. Use Million Metric Tons Stocks to Use Ratio USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017 & PSD Custom Query

27 World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use (Million Metric Ton) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Dom. Use Without China Production and Use Million Metric Tons Stocks to Use Ratio USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017 & PSD Custom Query

28 U.S. All Wheat Total Prod. & Use Billion Bushels (Billion Bushels) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Use Stocks to Use Ratio Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Wheat Yearbook Table 6

29 U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu. Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu. Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu. Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu. Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu. Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017

30 U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A. A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. Planted Acreage is lowest since 1919, when USDA first began to track wheat plantings. Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu. Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu. Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu. Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu. Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu. Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017

31 Winter Wheat Seedings Report Winter Wheat Seedings (million acres) Total Winter Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter White Winter Average Trade Estimate Highest Trade Estimate Lowest Trade Estimate USDA 2017 seedings USDA 2018 seedings Winter Wheat Seedings Jan. 12, 2018

32

33

34

35 U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu. Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu N.D. Avg. HRSW = 41.0 bu./a N.D. Avg. HRSW = 46.0 bu./a. Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu. Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu N.D. Avg. Durum = 24.0 bu./a N.D. Avg. Durum = 40.5 bu./a. Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu. Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017

36 U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu. Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu. Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu. Total Production is 24.6% below 2016, and lowest since Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu. Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu. Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017

37 1,400 U.S. All Wheat Use (Million Bushels) Million Bushels 1,200 1, Food Exports Feed & Residual Seed USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017 & USDA Wheat Yearbook Table 5

38 U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Food use changes with U.S. population growth and flour extraction rates. Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu. Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu. Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu. Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu. Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu. Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017

39 U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. Exports are critical for U.S. wheat prices and are forecast to decrease 7.6%. Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu. Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu. Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu. Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu. Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu. Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017

40 Weekly U.S. All Wheat Export Sales (06/01/ /18/2018) 30,000,000 Accumulated Exports 25,000,000 Metric Tons 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May USDA FSA Weekly Export Sales Report

41 Weekly U.S. HRS Wheat Export Sales (06/06/ /18/2018) 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 Accumulated Exports Metric Tons 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013/ / / / /18 USDA FSA Weekly Export Sales Report

42 U.S. All Wheat Export Destinations (1,000 Metric Ton) Country 2011/ / / / / /17 Mexico 3, , , , , ,089.7 Japan 3, , , , , ,819.7 Philippines 2, , , , , ,729.2 Nigeria 3, , , , , ,540.4 South Korea 1, , , , , ,275.5 Taiwan , , , , All Wheat Exports by Country FAS Online

43 Trans-Pacific Partnership 11 Trade agreement including: Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, Mexico, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam. Will be signed on March 8, 2018 Will give Australia and Canada a $65/mt. reduction in tariff rates relative to the U.S. $65/mt. = $1.77/bu.

44 U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks remain large. Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu. Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu. Stocks to Use Ratio is forecast to decrease from 53.2% to 47.4% Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu. Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu. Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu. Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu. Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017

45 U.S. All Wheat Total Prod. & Use Billion Bushels (Billion Bushels) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Use Stocks to Use Ratio Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Wheat Yearbook Table 6

46 U.S. Spring Wheat Total Prod. & Use (Million Bushels) / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /18 Stocks to Use Ratio Stocks to Use Total Production Total Use Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Wheat Yearbook Table 6 Million Bushels

47 Mar. MGEX Wheat Pricing Points DTN Prophet X pm

48 Questions?

2017 Soybean Outlook & Strategies

2017 Soybean Outlook & Strategies 2017 Soybean Outlook & Strategies Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist Director Burdick Center for Cooperatives frayne.olson@ndsu.edu 701-231-7377 (o) 701-715-3673 (c) NDSU Extension Service

More information

2018/19 Crop Market Outlook & Strategies

2018/19 Crop Market Outlook & Strategies 2018/19 Crop Market Outlook & Strategies November CBOT Soybean Futures Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist Director Burdick Center for Cooperatives frayne.olson@ndsu.edu 701-231-7377

More information

Crop Outlook: Now What?!

Crop Outlook: Now What?! Crop Outlook: Now What?! Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist frayne.olson@ndsu.edu 701-231-7377 NDSU Extension Service ND Agricultural Experiment Station Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied

More information

Crop Market Outlook: Where do we go from here?

Crop Market Outlook: Where do we go from here? 2012-13 Crop Market Outlook: Where do we go from here? Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist NDSU Extension Service ND Agricultural Experiment Station Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied Economics

More information

What are the risks? Crop Market Outlook

What are the risks? Crop Market Outlook What are the risks? 2012-13 Crop Market Outlook Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist NDSU Extension Service ND Agricultural Experiment Station Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied Economics

More information

Crop Outlook: Now What?!

Crop Outlook: Now What?! Crop Outlook: Now What?! Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist frayne.olson@ndsu.edu 701-231-7377 NDSU Extension Service ND Agricultural Experiment Station Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied

More information

Developing a Marketing Plan

Developing a Marketing Plan Developing a Marketing Plan Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist frayne.olson@ndsu.edu 701-231-7377 NDSU Extension Service ND Agricultural Experiment Station Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied

More information

2018/19 Soybean Market Outlook & Strategies

2018/19 Soybean Market Outlook & Strategies 2018/19 Soybean Market Outlook & Strategies Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist Director Burdick Center for Cooperatives frayne.olson@ndsu.edu 701-231-7377 (o) 701-715-3673 (c) NDSU Extension

More information

Overview of Trade, Tariffs and Crop Marketing Strategies

Overview of Trade, Tariffs and Crop Marketing Strategies Overview of Trade, Tariffs and Crop Marketing Strategies Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist Director Burdick Center for Cooperatives frayne.olson@ndsu.edu 71-231-7377 (o) 71-715-3673

More information

2018/19 Crop Market Outlook & Strategies

2018/19 Crop Market Outlook & Strategies 2018/19 Crop Market Outlook & Strategies Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist Director Burdick Center for Cooperatives frayne.olson@ndsu.edu 701-231-7377 (o) 701-715-3673 (c) NDSU Extension

More information

Market Outlook. David Reinbott.

Market Outlook. David Reinbott. Market Outlook David Reinbott Agriculture Business Specialist P.O. Box 187 Benton, MO 63736 (573) 545-3516 http://extension.missouri.edu/scott/agriculture.aspx reinbottd@missouri.edu Trending Issues China,

More information

Prospects for Corn Trade in 2018/19 and Beyond

Prospects for Corn Trade in 2018/19 and Beyond Prospects for Corn Trade in 2018/19 and Beyond Ben Brown Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics The Ohio State University February 15, 2019 The agricultural industry is a

More information

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report of Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chairing Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural

More information

Grains Outlook for 2014 SAEA Crops Outlook Organized Symposium Dallas, TX February 4, 2014

Grains Outlook for 2014 SAEA Crops Outlook Organized Symposium Dallas, TX February 4, 2014 Grains Outlook for 2014 SAEA Crops Outlook Organized Symposium Dallas, TX February 4, 2014 Dr. Nathan B. Smith (UGA) and Dr. Mark Welch (TAMU) Corn Corn Situation Record production. Leveling off of corn-starch

More information

Corn and Soybean Market Update, August 9, 2017

Corn and Soybean Market Update, August 9, 2017 Corn and Soybean Market Update, August 9, 2017 Aaron Smith Assistant Professor Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of Tennessee Extension https://ag.tennessee.edu/arec/pages/cropeconomics.aspx

More information

2014 Wheat Situation. Crop Outlook & Durum Forum November 2014

2014 Wheat Situation. Crop Outlook & Durum Forum November 2014 2014 Wheat Situation Crop Outlook & Durum Forum November 2014 World Wheat 2014 Impact Issues RECORD CROP BUT SHORTAGE OF QUALITY BIG U.S. CORN CROP No shortage of sellers on world wheat market Inland rail

More information

2012 Farm Outlook. Highlights

2012 Farm Outlook. Highlights 2012 Farm Outlook Office of the Chief Economist USDA Highlights A promising spring planting was followed by historic drought. Record high commodity prices followed. Farm incomes are expected to be near

More information

August 10, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

August 10, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates August 10, 2017 - USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates Corn Market Reaction: September 2017 corn futures closed down 15 cents at $3.57 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $3.56 ½ to $3.75 ½. December

More information

China bulks up on U.S. soybeans Export sales data dump only one piece of demand puzzle. By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst

China bulks up on U.S. soybeans Export sales data dump only one piece of demand puzzle. By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst China bulks up on U.S. soybeans Export sales data dump only one piece of demand puzzle By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst China put its money where it s mouth apparently is, at least with soybeans.

More information

No lipstick for this pig USDA report bearish for soybeans -- period By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst

No lipstick for this pig USDA report bearish for soybeans -- period By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst No lipstick for this pig USDA report bearish for soybeans -- period By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst USDA s September reports were about as bearish for soybeans as you can get. A bigger than

More information

2019 Grain Market Outlook

2019 Grain Market Outlook 2019 Grain Market Outlook Ness City, Kansas January 7, 2019 DANIEL O BRIEN EXTENSION AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST Topics to be discussed.. 1) Macroconomic forces at work in the U.S. & where they are taking U.S.

More information

May 10, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

May 10, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates May 10, 2018 - USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates Corn Market Reaction: July 2018 corn futures closed down ¾ cent at $4.02 with a trading range for the day of $4.00 to $4.07. December 2018 corn futures

More information

North Dakota Wheat Commission Update. Best of the Best in Wheat Research Meetings Erica Olson Market Development & Research Manager

North Dakota Wheat Commission Update. Best of the Best in Wheat Research Meetings Erica Olson Market Development & Research Manager North Dakota Wheat Commission Update Best of the Best in Wheat Research Meetings Erica Olson Market Development & Research Manager BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS David Clough, Chairman Bruce Freitag, Vice-Chairman

More information

Fundamental Shifts Impacting U.S. Agriculture

Fundamental Shifts Impacting U.S. Agriculture Fundamental Shifts Impacting U.S. Agriculture Richard Brock California Grain & Feed Association San Diego, CA April 28, Game Changers 3 fundamental shifts Long term Impact $2 cotton in 2011 industry will

More information

Marketing Corn and Soybeans During the Growing Season Quarterly Zoom Marketing Meeting, June 13, 2018

Marketing Corn and Soybeans During the Growing Season Quarterly Zoom Marketing Meeting, June 13, 2018 Marketing Corn and Soybeans During the Growing Season Quarterly Zoom Marketing Meeting, June 13, 2018 Dr. S. Aaron Smith Crop Marketing Specialist, Assistant Professor, and Extension Economist Department

More information

OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE

OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE Agricultural Outlook Forum 216 OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE Robert Johansson Chief Economist 25 February 216 Fig 2 Main themes for 216 1. The macroeconomy is weighing on trade, but there are reasons for

More information

June 9, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

June 9, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates June 9, 2017 - USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates Corn Market Reaction: July 2017 corn futures closed up 2 cents at $3.87 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $3.80 ¾ to $3.89 ½. December 2017 corn

More information

January 12, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

January 12, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates January 12, 2017 - USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates Corn This month s U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced feed and residual use, increased corn used to produce ethanol, and smaller

More information

June 12, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

June 12, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates June 12, 2018 - USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates Corn Market Reaction: July 2018 corn futures closed up 10 ¼ cents at $3.77 ½ with a trading range for the day of $3.67 ¼ to $3.79 ½. December 2018

More information

January 12, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

January 12, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates January 12, 2018 - USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates Corn Market Reaction: March 2018 corn futures closed down 2 ½ cents at $3.46 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $3.45 ½ to $3.50. December 2018

More information

Commodity Outlook 2019: Corn and Soybeans Struggle to Find Strength

Commodity Outlook 2019: Corn and Soybeans Struggle to Find Strength Commodity Outlook 2019: Corn and Soybeans Struggle to Find Strength Wayne County 2019 Agricultural Outlook Ben Brown January 30, 2019 2018: A Tale of Two Halves January-May $4.00 corn and $10.50 soybean

More information

Farming is a gamble, and 2018 looked like a year when soybean growers rolled snake eyes then doubled down and rolled them again.

Farming is a gamble, and 2018 looked like a year when soybean growers rolled snake eyes then doubled down and rolled them again. Take the money and run Good yields, forward sales and Sonny Money could mean a profit By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst Farming is a gamble, and 2018 looked like a year when soybean growers rolled

More information

Market Outlook. David Reinbott.

Market Outlook. David Reinbott. Market Outlook David Reinbott Agriculture Business Specialist P.O. Box 187 Benton, MO 63736 (573) 545-3516 http://extension.missouri.edu/scott/agriculture.aspx reinbottd@missouri.edu Trending Issues Pre-2007

More information

FACTORS CREATING RISK IN U.S. GRAIN MARKETS

FACTORS CREATING RISK IN U.S. GRAIN MARKETS FACTORS CREATING RISK IN U.S. GRAIN MARKETS WAY TOO EARLY GRAIN MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2050 22 ND NATIONAL WORKSHOP FOR DAIRY ECONOMISTS & POLICY ANALYSTS APRIL 30, 2015 JOHN NEWTON UNIV. OF ILLINOIS JCNEWT@ILLINOIS.EDU

More information

LAGGING EXPORTS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TO CORN PRICES

LAGGING EXPORTS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TO CORN PRICES November 5, 2001 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 1825 LAGGING EXPORTS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TO CORN PRICES While current utilization projections show record corn use for the year ahead, the slow start for corn export

More information

Ag Outlook Webinar. Chris Hurt, Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics

Ag Outlook Webinar. Chris Hurt, Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics Ag Outlook Webinar Chris Hurt, Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics Michael Langemeier, Associate Director, Center for Commercial Agriculture James Mintert, Director, Center for Commercial Agriculture

More information

Grain and Cotton Economics. Mark Welch Extension Economist Grain Marketing (979)

Grain and Cotton Economics. Mark Welch Extension Economist Grain Marketing (979) Grain and Cotton Economics Mark Welch Extension Economist Grain Marketing JMWelch@tamu.edu (979)845-8011 Marketing 2012, here we come! Tight supplies Grain Strong demand Yoked to outside markets 2012,

More information

Commodity Outlook: September 2017 West Central Illinois: July 2017

Commodity Outlook: September 2017 West Central Illinois: July 2017 Commodity Outlook: September 2017 West Central Illinois: July 2017 William George Senior Agriculture Economist U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service Office of Global Analysis Commodity

More information

Market Outlook. David Reinbott.

Market Outlook. David Reinbott. Market Outlook David Reinbott Agriculture Business Specialist P.O. Box 187 Benton, MO 63736 (573) 545-3516 http://extension.missouri.edu/scott/agriculture.aspx reinbottd@missouri.edu Trending Issues Pre-2007

More information

U.S. Ag Trade: Existing vs Emerging Markets. Ohio Grain Symposium Ben Brown December 18, 2018

U.S. Ag Trade: Existing vs Emerging Markets. Ohio Grain Symposium Ben Brown December 18, 2018 U.S. Ag Trade: Existing vs Emerging Markets Ohio Grain Symposium Ben Brown December 18, 2018 Today s Outline- Trade Policy Understanding the U.S. Trade Deficit Ohio Ag Trade World Soybean Impacts from

More information

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report of Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chairing Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural

More information

Emerging Issues: Uncertainty in U.S. Ag Policy and Trade. Ohio Soybean Association- August 29, 2018 Ben Brown

Emerging Issues: Uncertainty in U.S. Ag Policy and Trade. Ohio Soybean Association- August 29, 2018 Ben Brown Emerging Issues: Uncertainty in U.S. Ag Policy and Trade Ohio Soybean Association- August 29, 2018 Ben Brown Most Common Questions The U.S. can sell more soybeans to other buyers, right? Example: would

More information

Marketing Corn and Soybeans during the Growing Season: 2018 Outlook and Pricing Opportunities

Marketing Corn and Soybeans during the Growing Season: 2018 Outlook and Pricing Opportunities Marketing Corn and Soybeans during the Growing Season: 2018 Outlook and Pricing Opportunities Dr. S. Aaron Smith Assistant Professor, Crop Marketing Specialist, and Extension Economist Department of Agricultural

More information

The Scoop on U.S. Wheat

The Scoop on U.S. Wheat The Scoop on U.S. Wheat 2017 Spring Technical Conference And IAOM Joint District Meeting Justin Gilpin Kansas WhEAT Commission Manhattan, KS jgilpin@kswheat.com Overview A quick look at current milling

More information

September 12, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

September 12, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates September 12, 2018 - USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates Corn Market Reaction: December 2018 corn futures closed down 14 ¼ cents at $3.52 ½ with a trading range for the day of $3.50 ¾ to $3.66 ¼. December

More information

Fresh Deciduous Fruit (Apples, Pears, and Grapes): World Markets and Trade

Fresh Deciduous Fruit (Apples, Pears, and Grapes): World Markets and Trade Fresh Deciduous Fruit (Apples, Pears, and Grapes): World Markets and Trade June 9 SUMMARY Global apple production is expected to expand percent and trade is expected to surge 5 percent in 8/9 due to strong

More information

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans 2018 WASDE Release Dates: June 12, 2018 Jan 12, Feb 8, Mar 8, Apr 10, May 10, Jun 12, Jul 12, Aug

More information

2019 Grain Market Outlook

2019 Grain Market Outlook 2019 Grain Market Outlook Sumner County Ag Day Wellington, Kansas January 17, 2019 DANIEL O BRIEN EXTENSION AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST 1) U.S. Economy 2019 Grain Market Drivers A relatively strong U.S. GDP,

More information

Wheat Outlook. Economic Research Service September 16, Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

Wheat Outlook. Economic Research Service September 16, Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board Wheat Outlook Economic Research Service September 16, 008 U.S. Department of Agriculture WHS-08ht text and tables Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board Larger Production and Beginning Stocks

More information

January 9, 2014 WE WILL BE UPDATING AND ADDING MATERIAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON JANUARY 10 TO THIS LETTER BEGINNING AT 11:00 AM CST.

January 9, 2014 WE WILL BE UPDATING AND ADDING MATERIAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON JANUARY 10 TO THIS LETTER BEGINNING AT 11:00 AM CST. January 9, 2014 WE WILL BE UPDATING AND ADDING MATERIAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON JANUARY 10 TO THIS LETTER BEGINNING AT 11:00 AM CST. PLEASE CHECK BACK OFTEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION!

More information

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans 2018 WASDE Release Dates: February 8, 2018 Jan 12, Feb 8, Mar 8, Apr 10, May 10, Jun 12, Jul 12, Aug

More information

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans 2018 WASDE Release Dates: April 10, 2018 Jan 12, Feb 8, Mar 8, Apr 10, May 10, Jun 12, Jul 12, Aug

More information

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans 2018 WASDE Release Dates: October 11, 2018 Jan 12, Feb 8, Mar 8, Apr 10, May 10, Jun 12, Jul 12, Aug

More information

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans 2018 WASDE Release Dates: September 12, 2018 Jan 12, Feb 8, Mar 8, Apr 10, May 10, Jun 12, Jul 12,

More information

Soybeans try to avoid a $7 handle U.S. prices are cheap, but could get cheaper By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst

Soybeans try to avoid a $7 handle U.S. prices are cheap, but could get cheaper By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst Soybeans try to avoid a $7 handle U.S. prices are cheap, but could get cheaper By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst In early July before China s tariffs on soybeans went into effect I wrote that

More information

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans 2018 WASDE Release Dates: July 12, 2018 Jan 12, Feb 8, Mar 8, Apr 10, May 10, Jun 12, Jul 12, Aug

More information

Agricultural Markets Situation & Outlook

Agricultural Markets Situation & Outlook Agricultural Markets Situation & Outlook VP s Outlook & Policy 3 December 2012 Matthew C. Roberts Roberts.628@osu.edu The Big Questions Progress of winter crops: SA soybean & corn NA winter wheat US export

More information

Growers who hedge now should cover the upside with call options, say selling a December SRW $6.20 call to pay for a $5.20.

Growers who hedge now should cover the upside with call options, say selling a December SRW $6.20 call to pay for a $5.20. Wheat market tries to get its mojo back Tighter global supplies should boost U.S. export hopes By Bryce Knorr, Senior Grain Market Analyst In a world without noise, the wheat market would be ready to rally.

More information

Signs align for corn profit hopes Short crop in Brazil could be fix the market needs By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst

Signs align for corn profit hopes Short crop in Brazil could be fix the market needs By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst Signs align for corn profit hopes Short crop in Brazil could be fix the market needs By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst Corn growers enjoyed an outbreak of optimism last week at Commodity Classic

More information

December 12, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

December 12, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates December 12, 2017 - USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates Corn Market Reaction: March 2018 corn futures closed down 1 ¼ cents at $3.47 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $3.47 ½ to $3.53. December

More information

2016 Economic Summit Iowa Farm Bureau Meat Export Outlook

2016 Economic Summit Iowa Farm Bureau Meat Export Outlook 2016 Economic Summit Iowa Farm Bureau Meat Export Outlook Erin Borror USMEF Economist June 27, 2016 Des Moines USMEF s Global Offices and Representatives Membership Membership is comprised of nine sectors:

More information

Cattle Market Situation and Outlook

Cattle Market Situation and Outlook Cattle Market Situation and Outlook Rebuilding the Cow Herd Series March 28, 2007 Falls City, TX Coordinated by: Dennis Hale-Karnes CEA Ag & Charlie Pfluger-Wilson CEA Ag Prepared and presented by: Larry

More information

World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. Lockup Briefing July 11, 2014

World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. Lockup Briefing July 11, 2014 World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing World Wheat Production Country or Region estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Million Tons Percent Percent

More information

Game Changers. Fundamental shifts Long term Impact

Game Changers. Fundamental shifts Long term Impact Game Changers Fundamental shifts Long term Impact Over The Past Three Years The U.S. co-op system has been cut by more than 50%. The world s largest seed genetics and chemical firms have merged, cutting

More information

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans 2019 WASDE Release Dates: February 8, 2019 Jan 11, Feb 8, Mar 8, April 9, May 10, Jun 11, Jul 11,

More information

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans

Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans Teucrium s Summary of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans 2019 WASDE Release Dates: March 8, 2019 Jan 11, Feb 8, Mar 8, April 9, May 10, Jun 11, Jul 11, Aug

More information

World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates

World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture Office of the Chief Economist Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service Farm Service Agency Foreign

More information

Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast

Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast U.S. soybean planted acreage is expected to increase 5.7 million acres over the forecast period. U.S. soybean yields are expected to increase 2.2 bushels per acre or

More information

Grain Market Outlook for

Grain Market Outlook for Grain Market Outlook for 2017-2018 KSU Ag Econ 520 Fall 2017 Manhattan, Kansas DANIEL O BRIEN EXTENSION AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST Topics to be discussed.. 1) Grain Market Analysis & Outlook Corn & Grain Sorghum

More information

CORN: USDA REPORTS FAIL TO CONFIRM SMALLER SUPPLIES

CORN: USDA REPORTS FAIL TO CONFIRM SMALLER SUPPLIES CORN: USDA REPORTS FAIL TO CONFIRM SMALLER SUPPLIES JANUARY 2001 Darrel Good No. 1 Summary Corn prices managed a significant rally from late September to late December 2000, partially on anticipation of

More information

Wednesday July 11, 2012 World Ag Supply & Demand Report

Wednesday July 11, 2012 World Ag Supply & Demand Report World Ag Supply & Demand Report U.S. 2011/12 Old Crop Corn is neutral Global Old Crop Corn is neutral USDA estimates the 2011/12 U.S. corn carryout at 903 million bushels, up from 851 million bushels from

More information

Market Outlook & Price Projections: Corn, Wheat, Soy Complex & Palm Oil October 7 th, 2016

Market Outlook & Price Projections: Corn, Wheat, Soy Complex & Palm Oil October 7 th, 2016 Market Outlook & Price Projections: Corn, Wheat, Soy Complex & Palm Oil October 7 th, 2016 Patrick Sparks Global Risk Management, Inc. psparks@grmcorp.com 651-209-9503 www.grmcorp.com 1 Commodity trading

More information

WORLD AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES

WORLD AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES WORLD AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES United States Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board WASDE-339 - June 12, 1998 NOTE Because planting

More information

Grain Market Outlook and Marketing Strategies

Grain Market Outlook and Marketing Strategies Grain Market Outlook and Marketing Strategies Presented by: Brian Roach Dec 6 & 7, 2016 Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Disclaimer: Futures/options trading involves substantial risk of loss and trading may not

More information

Cotton Update. Hosted by United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) and Cotton Incorporated

Cotton Update. Hosted by United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) and Cotton Incorporated Cotton Update Hosted by United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) and Cotton Incorporated September 27, 2018 2:00 P.M. Eastern/11:00 A.M. Pacific At any time during the presentation, you may enter

More information

World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates

World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service Farm Service Agency Foreign

More information

Wheat Market Outlook for

Wheat Market Outlook for Wheat Market Outlook for 2018-2019 2018 KSU Wheat Schools Ness City & Lenora, Kansas DANIEL O BRIEN EXTENSION AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST Topics to be discussed.. 1) U.S.-China Trade & Other Key Grain Market

More information

Wheat Outlook June 14, 2017 Volume 26, Number 36

Wheat Outlook June 14, 2017 Volume 26, Number 36 Today s Newsletter Market Situation Crop Progress 1 Weather 3 Grain Use 5 Marketing Strategies 2017 Wheat Marketing Plan 6 Upcoming Reports/Events 7 Market Situation Crop Progress. Only minor adjustments

More information

May 12, Dear Subscriber: We will be adding material to this shell letter after todays reports are released at 11:00 a.m.

May 12, Dear Subscriber: We will be adding material to this shell letter after todays reports are released at 11:00 a.m. May 12, 2015 Dear Subscriber: We will be adding material to this shell letter after todays reports are released at 11:00 a.m. Be sure to click back on the link often for the latest information. Whle today

More information

World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. Lockup Briefing April 9, 2014

World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. Lockup Briefing April 9, 2014 World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing World Wheat Production Country or Region Million Tons World 656.5 712.5 8.5 United States 61.7 58.0-6.0

More information

Grain Market Outlook for

Grain Market Outlook for Grain Market Outlook for 2018-2019 2018 KSU Risk & Profit Conference Manhattan, Kansas DANIEL O BRIEN EXTENSION AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST Topics to be discussed.. 1) U.S.-China Trade & Other Key Grain Market

More information

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report of Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chairing Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural

More information

Corn & Soybeans. Corn (source WASDE) Soybean (source WASDE)

Corn & Soybeans. Corn (source WASDE) Soybean (source WASDE) Corn & Soybeans Corn (source WASDE) Estimate for the 2015-16 Season Global and US outlook Soybean (source WASDE) Estimate for the 2015-16 Season Global and US outlook Global ending stocks Corn and Soybeans

More information

Weekly Comments

Weekly Comments Weekly Newsletters start in October and continue during harvest at least through October and likely into November. Position Management: The table shows how the Model Farm is positioned at this time. Individual

More information

Brenda L. Boetel UW-River Falls Extension Commodity Marketing Specialist

Brenda L. Boetel UW-River Falls Extension Commodity Marketing Specialist Brenda L. Boetel UW-River Falls Extension Commodity Marketing Specialist 2 Total Supply = 15472 5th highest corn acreage planted (1 st in 2012) 5th highest corn acreage harvested (1 st in 2012) 3 2012/2013

More information

World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. May 9, 2014

World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. May 9, 2014 World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts World Wheat Production Country or Region Million Tons 2014/15 World 714.0 697.0-2.4 United States 58.0 53.4-7.8 Foreign

More information

Wheat Outlook. Global Wheat Exports Raised on Expanded Russian, U.S. Sales. Jennifer Bond Olga Liefert

Wheat Outlook. Global Wheat Exports Raised on Expanded Russian, U.S. Sales. Jennifer Bond Olga Liefert Economic Research Service Situation and Outlook WHS-17k November 14, 2017 The next release is December 14, 2017. -------------- Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Wheat Outlook Jennifer

More information

Economic Research Service Situation and Outlook Report. Russian Wheat Exports Raised to a New Record, U.S. Exports Cut by 25 Million Bushels

Economic Research Service Situation and Outlook Report. Russian Wheat Exports Raised to a New Record, U.S. Exports Cut by 25 Million Bushels Economic Research Service Situation and Outlook Report WHS-18c March 12, 2018 Next release is April 12, 2018 Wheat Outlook Jennifer K. Bond, coordinator Olga Liefert Russian Wheat Exports Raised to a New

More information

Wheat Outlook. U.S. Ending Stocks Up With Smaller Domestic Use. Gary Vocke Olga Liefert

Wheat Outlook. U.S. Ending Stocks Up With Smaller Domestic Use. Gary Vocke Olga Liefert WHS-11a Jan. 14, 2011 Wheat Outlook Gary Vocke gvocke@ers.usda.gov Olga Liefert oliefert@ers.usda.gov U.S. Ending Stocks Up With Smaller Domestic Use Contents Domestic Outlook Intl. Outlook Contacts &

More information

World Wheat Supply and Demand. Crop Quality Seminars 2013 Ian Flagg

World Wheat Supply and Demand. Crop Quality Seminars 2013 Ian Flagg World Wheat Supply and Demand Crop Quality Seminars 2013 Ian Flagg Beginning Stocks 250 200 Exporter beginning stocks down 35% from 5-year average 199 199 174 150 125 100 83 122 50 0 27 14 14 32 48 38

More information

Morning Comments

Morning Comments Next USDA Reports: Tomorrow, Friday April 8, 2011 WASDE & Crop Production Position Management: The table shows how the Model Farm is positioned at this time. Individual recommendations may vary. 2010 Crop

More information

Feed Grain Outlook. May 26, 2017 Volume 26, Number 29. Today s Newsletter Market Situation Crop Progress 1

Feed Grain Outlook. May 26, 2017 Volume 26, Number 29. Today s Newsletter Market Situation Crop Progress 1 Today s Newsletter Market Situation Crop Progress 1 Grain Use 1 Outside Markets 5 Marketing Strategies Seasonality 7 2017 Feed Grain Marketing Plan 7 Upcoming Reports/Events 9 Market Situation Crop Progress.

More information

Corn & Soybeans. Corn (source WASDE) Soybeans (source WASDE)

Corn & Soybeans. Corn (source WASDE) Soybeans (source WASDE) Corn & Soybeans Corn (source WASDE) Estimate for the 2014-15 Season Global and US outlook Production, utilization and stocks Soybeans (source WASDE) Estimate for the 2014-15 Season Global and US outlook

More information

2019 Grain Market Outlook

2019 Grain Market Outlook 2019 Grain Market Outlook 2018 Ag Lenders Conferences Garden City & Manhattan, Kansas October 9-10, 2018 DANIEL O BRIEN EXTENSION AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST Topics to be discussed.. 1) U.S. Foreign Trade Uncertainty

More information

Steve Freed Vice President ADMIS Research

Steve Freed Vice President ADMIS Research Steve Freed Vice President ADMIS Research Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable

More information

SOYBEANS: HIGHEST PRICES IN OVER SEVEN YEARS. January 2004 Darrel Good 2004 NO. 2

SOYBEANS: HIGHEST PRICES IN OVER SEVEN YEARS. January 2004 Darrel Good 2004 NO. 2 SOYBEANS: HIGHEST PRICES IN OVER SEVEN YEARS January 2004 Darrel Good 2004 NO. 2 Summary At 2.418 billion bushels, the 2003 U.S. soybean crop was 34 million bushels smaller than the USDA s November forecast

More information

Morning Comments

Morning Comments Position Management: The table shows how the Model Farm is positioned at this time. Individual recommendations may vary. 2010 Crop 2011 Crop 2012 Crop Corn 100% sold with basis set 50% sold HTA 30% sold

More information

Hog and Pork Situation and Outlook

Hog and Pork Situation and Outlook Hog and Pork Situation and Outlook August 13, 2014 Lee Schulz Assistant Professor & Extension Livestock Economist Department of Economics Iowa State University lschulz@iastate.edu (515) 294-3356 2014 Midwest

More information

2017 Crop Market Outlook

2017 Crop Market Outlook 2017 Crop Market Outlook Presented at the Row Crop Short Course Jackson County Agriculture Conference Center March 2, 2017 Adam N. Rabinowitz, PhD Assistant Professor and Extension Specialist Agricultural

More information

Morning Comments

Morning Comments Position Management: The table shows how the Model Farm is positioned at this time. Individual recommendations may vary. 2010 Crop 2011 Crop 2012 Crop Corn 80% sold 20% basis open July 40% sold HTA 20%

More information