2017/18 Crop Market Outlook & Strategies
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1 2017/18 Crop Market Outlook & Strategies Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist Director Burdick Center for Cooperatives (o) (c) NDSU Extension Service ND Agricultural Experiment Station Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied Economics
2 Key Points U.S. production (yield) is strong, but demand is also very good. Export pace and S.A. production is current focus. Geopolitical events and trade negotiations are the wildcards. Picking the top is nearly impossible! Strategies: Make several smaller sales. Place sell orders at key price levels in advance.
3 World Soybean Prod, Use & Stocks/Use (Million Metric Ton) Stocks-to-Use Total Production Total Use Million Metric Tons Stocks-to-Use Ratio Jan. 12, 2017 USDA WASDE & PSD Custom Query
4 Billion Bushels U.S. Soybean Total Prod. & Use (Billion Bushels) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Use Stocks to Use Ratio Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Oil Yearbook Table 3
5 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017
6 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Private estimates: Average = 49.5 High = 50.0 Low =49.0 Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017
7 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Total Production is fifth record year in a row! (2.2% above last year s record) Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017
8 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, U.S. Soybean Use Crushings Exports Seed & Residual Million Bushels 2000/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /18 Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Oil Yearbook Table 3
9 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table If correct, Crushings would be a another new record due to increased feed usage and strong export demand for meal. (2.7% increase) U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017
10 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) RFS for biodiesel is very important in today s market. Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. 32.6% of soybean oil is forecast to be used in biodiesel. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017
11 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Exports are forecast to decrease 1.0% from last year due to slow start to export season. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017
12 3,000,000 Weekly U.S. Soybean Export Sales (09/01/ /18/2018) 2,500,000 Metric Tons/Week 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug USDA FSA Weekly Export Sales Report
13 U.S. Soybean Export Destinations (1,000 Metric Ton) Country 2011/ / / / / /17 China 23, , , , , ,148.3 Mexico 3, , , , , ,665.0 Indonesia 1, , , , , ,296.9 Japan 1, , , , , ,137.2 Netherlands , , , ,044.9 Taiwan , , , , , Soybean Exports by Country FAS Online
14 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Will the dispute with North Korea impact trade relations with China? Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017
15 Ocean Vessel Movements in Asia Jan. 29, 2017
16 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand Table U.S. Soybean 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Stocks to Use Ratio is forecast to increase from 7.2% to 11.1% Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu. Total Production is increasing faster than Use. Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu. Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu. Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu. Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu. Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017
17 Billion Bushels U.S. Soybean Total Prod. & Use (Billion Bushels) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Use Stocks to Use Ratio Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Oil Yearbook Table 3
18 Mar. CBOT Soybean Pricing Points DTN Prophet X am
19 Historical Soybean Production (Million Metric Ton) Million Metric Ton United States Brazil Argentina Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & PSD Tables 21, 22 and 23
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22 Brazilian Percent Soil Moisture Jan. 21, 2018 SMOS Hazard (wet) 90% 100% Optimum 50% 80% Hazard (dry) 0% 40% USDA FAS Crop Explorer
23 Argentine Percent Soil Moisture Jan. 21, 2018 SMOS Hazard (wet) 90% 100% Optimum 50% 80% Hazard (dry) 0% 40% USDA FAS Crop Explorer
24 World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use (Million Metric Ton) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Dom. Use Million Metric Tons Stocks to Use Ratio USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017 & PSD Custom Query
25 World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use Million Metric Tons (Million Metric Ton) Who Stocks to Use holds wheat ending Total Production Total Dom. Use stocks? 2016/ /18 China: 43.9% 47.8% U.S. : 12.7% 10.0% Russia: 4.3% 6.1% Stocks to Use Ratio USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017 & PSD Custom Query
26 World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use (Million Metric Ton) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Dom. Use Million Metric Tons Stocks to Use Ratio USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017 & PSD Custom Query
27 World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use (Million Metric Ton) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Dom. Use Without China Production and Use Million Metric Tons Stocks to Use Ratio USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017 & PSD Custom Query
28 U.S. All Wheat Total Prod. & Use Billion Bushels (Billion Bushels) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Use Stocks to Use Ratio Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Wheat Yearbook Table 6
29 U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu. Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu. Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu. Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu. Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu. Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017
30 U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A. A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. Planted Acreage is lowest since 1919, when USDA first began to track wheat plantings. Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu. Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu. Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu. Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu. Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu. Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017
31 Winter Wheat Seedings Report Winter Wheat Seedings (million acres) Total Winter Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter White Winter Average Trade Estimate Highest Trade Estimate Lowest Trade Estimate USDA 2017 seedings USDA 2018 seedings Winter Wheat Seedings Jan. 12, 2018
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35 U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu. Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu N.D. Avg. HRSW = 41.0 bu./a N.D. Avg. HRSW = 46.0 bu./a. Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu. Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu N.D. Avg. Durum = 24.0 bu./a N.D. Avg. Durum = 40.5 bu./a. Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu. Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017
36 U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu. Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu. Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu. Total Production is 24.6% below 2016, and lowest since Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu. Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu. Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017
37 1,400 U.S. All Wheat Use (Million Bushels) Million Bushels 1,200 1, Food Exports Feed & Residual Seed USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017 & USDA Wheat Yearbook Table 5
38 U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Food use changes with U.S. population growth and flour extraction rates. Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu. Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu. Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu. Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu. Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu. Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017
39 U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. Exports are critical for U.S. wheat prices and are forecast to decrease 7.6%. Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu. Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu. Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu. Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu. Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu. Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017
40 Weekly U.S. All Wheat Export Sales (06/01/ /18/2018) 30,000,000 Accumulated Exports 25,000,000 Metric Tons 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May USDA FSA Weekly Export Sales Report
41 Weekly U.S. HRS Wheat Export Sales (06/06/ /18/2018) 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 Accumulated Exports Metric Tons 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013/ / / / /18 USDA FSA Weekly Export Sales Report
42 U.S. All Wheat Export Destinations (1,000 Metric Ton) Country 2011/ / / / / /17 Mexico 3, , , , , ,089.7 Japan 3, , , , , ,819.7 Philippines 2, , , , , ,729.2 Nigeria 3, , , , , ,540.4 South Korea 1, , , , , ,275.5 Taiwan , , , , All Wheat Exports by Country FAS Online
43 Trans-Pacific Partnership 11 Trade agreement including: Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, Mexico, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam. Will be signed on March 8, 2018 Will give Australia and Canada a $65/mt. reduction in tariff rates relative to the U.S. $65/mt. = $1.77/bu.
44 U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2015/ /2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan) Planted A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Harvested A Mill. A Mill. A Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A bu bu bu. Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks remain large. Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu. Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu. Stocks to Use Ratio is forecast to decrease from 53.2% to 47.4% Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu. Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu. Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu. Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu. Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE Jan. 12, 2017
45 U.S. All Wheat Total Prod. & Use Billion Bushels (Billion Bushels) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Use Stocks to Use Ratio Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Wheat Yearbook Table 6
46 U.S. Spring Wheat Total Prod. & Use (Million Bushels) / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /18 Stocks to Use Ratio Stocks to Use Total Production Total Use Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Wheat Yearbook Table 6 Million Bushels
47 Mar. MGEX Wheat Pricing Points DTN Prophet X pm
48 Questions?
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