Jose A. Marengo, Jean Ometto, Carlos A. Nobre

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1 Climatic and hydrological consequences of the large scale land use changes due to bio-fuel and soy bean production in tropical and subtropical South America Jose A. Marengo, Jean Ometto, Carlos A. Nobre Earth System Science Center/National Institute for Space Research São Paulo, Brazil

2 Facts Climate change in Brazil, impacts, vulnerability (land use changes and greenhouse gases emissions) Future climate change scenarios and the Amazon, due to increase in greenhouse gases concentration and land use changes Most important deforestation factor is cattle ranching Adaptation and mitigation alternatives: REDD, environmental services, biofuel, agrobussines Food security vs conservation

3 Brazilian agriculture The miracle of the cerrado Brazil has revolutionised its own farms. Can it do the same for others? Aug 26th 2010 CREMAQ, PIAUÍ

4 Brazil has more spare farmland than any other country. The FAO puts its total potential arable land at over 400m hectares; only 50m is being used. It is often accused of levelling the rainforest to create its farms, but hardly any of this new land lies in Amazonia; most is cerrado.

5 Food Systems-Food Security A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress How will global environmental change (GEC) affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions? How can we adapt food systems to cope with GEC and improve food security? How will the various adaptation options feed back on environmental and socioeconomic conditions? ESSP is a joint initiative of

6 Total precipitation Precipitation-Evaporation Future climate change scenarios in Brazil for Heavy precipitation Consecutive Dry Days Mean air temperature

7 Projected Precipitation Changes in Amazonia due to replacement of forest by grasland and soybean GRASSLAND SOYBEAN 1.2 Amazonia - PASTURE Area: East/Northeast 1.2 Amazonia - SOYBEAN Area: East/Northeast Relative Precipitation (p/p 0) DJF MAM JJA SON Relative P recipitation (p/p 0) DJF MAM JJA SON 0.6 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0.6 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Deforestation Area (%) Deforestation Area (%) Season All Pasture All Soybean JJA -27.5% -39.8% SON -28.1% -39.9% Precipitation Anomaly (%) The reduction in precipitation is larger during the dry season, and is more evident when the deforested area in Eastern Amazonia is larger than 40%! Sampaio et al., 2007

8 Timber Soy farners Small Holders Regional Plan Ranchers Water Resources Biodiversity and environmental services

9 CASTOR OIL PALM NORTH NORTHEAST COTTON ANIMAL FAT WEST CENTRAL SOUTHEAST SUNFLOWER SOY SOUTH PEANUTS RAPESEED

10 Spatial distribution of cattle ranching activities in Brazil (2003) CEPEA/USP 35,00 30,00 25,00 20,00 15, Brazilian GDP 10,00 was R$ 2,558,822 5,00 (~ 1.3 trillion US$) 0,00 Share (%)of the Agribusiness in the Brazilian GDP, 1994 to

11 Brazil: land use 2006 Agriculture: 67 million ha Country area: 851 million ha 2009 ~ 8 Million ha Rural Properties/agriculture: 266 million ha Source: EMBRAPA, FAOSTAT, IBGE

12 AGRIENERGY ETHANOL Sugarcane ethanol production in Brazil ACTUAL (2008/2009): Sugarcane...: 622 million ton Planted area...: 7.8 million ha Sugar...: 31.6 million ton Ethanol...: 26.7 billion liters Sugarcane brandy...: 1.5 billion liters Employees direct...: 1.0 million indirect...: 2.6 million FUTURE (2012): Sugarcane...: 1 billion ton Planted area...: million ha Ethanol...: 48 billion liters 8 % of ethanol production 92% of ethanol production Source: MAPA/CONAB April 2009

13 88% of the Brazilian National production

14 Brazil Ethanol program Pró Álcool (Programa Nacional do Álcool ) 1975 response to oil crisis of the early 70 s; 1978: First car 100% ethanol Marcos S. Jank/UNICA

15 SUGARCANE R&D Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning EMBRAPA Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology analysis of the potential for expansion of sugar cane in Brazil Areas considered adequate for SC expansion 64 millions ha Source: EMBRAPA / MAPA Main considered maps in the zoning: soil, climate, topography, land use and preserved areas. List of pre conditions: Land with declividade higher than 12% Areas with native vegetation Amazon and Pantanal Conservation areas Indian reservation Others i.e. Reforestation; urban areas Project underdevelopment by Embrapa and Brazilian Government.

16 Climate change and Food sucurity in the future in Brazil: Food and agrobussines Changes in production, value in the B2 climate change scenario for 2050 for some crops in Brazil, as compared to the present 2006 CROPS Production (TM) Value (x1000 R$) Production ( TM) Production (TM) Production ( TM) Present A2, 2020 A2, 2050 A2, 2070 Cotton Rice Coffee Sugar cane Beans Sun flower Cassava Corn Soy bean

17 If the prime object of biofuels is mitigation of CO 2 -driven global warming, in the short term (30 years or so) it is better to focus on increasing the efficiency of fossil fuel use Conversion of large areas of land to biofuel crops may place additional strains on the environment Righelato and Spracklen, Science 17.Aug.2007

18 Still work to be done Development of future climate change scenarios due the increase in greenhouse gases concentration and land use changes (agriculture, urbanization) Assessment of impacts of climate change in food security and agroindustry Assessment of economical aspects of land use change in cattle ranching and agroinstry in the context value of ecosystem services and metigation options (REDD, CDM)

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