TOWARDS LOW CARBON SOCIETY: FOREST SECTOR

Transcription

1 TOWARDS LOW CARBON SOCIETY: FOREST SECTOR Rizaldi Boer Laboratory of Climatology Bogor Agricultural University (IPB-Bogor)

2 Emission per capita (t CO2) Vietnam China Thailand Brazil Malaysia Japan CAN, AUS. & RoK EU-Low LCD USA EU-High GDP per cap (PPP US$) Prolog Toward LCS???? Emission per capita has linear relationship with GDP/Cap. Can we maintain our emission low when level of our wealth improved?

3 To avoid dangereous impact of climate change ~ the increase in mean global temperature should be kept below 2 o C (Source: Meinshausen, 2005).

4 Global GHG Emission 100 Share (%) Redrawn from WRI and CAIT data of 2000: CO2 LULUCF F gases N2O CH4 CO2 from fossil fuel 20 0 Developed Countries Energy conservation Developing Countries Least Developed Countries REDD and Sink Ehancement The less developed a country the higher emission rate from LULUCF, the more developed a country the higher emission rate from the use of fossil fuels

5 Indonesia Emission Compare with Other Countries Total Emission Without LUCF (M t CO2) India China CAN, AUS. & RoK Malay sia EU-Low Japan EU-High GDP per cap (PPP US$) USA Total Em ission with LUCF (Mt CO2) Source: Based on data from UNDP (2007) China Indonesia India Brazil FI, TT, HRD Malay sia ` CAN, AUS. & RoK EU-Low GDP per cap (PPP US$) USA Japan EU-High EE & TI Concept on green economic growth (ecological quality)? If yes how we do it? Can we give price for UER (Unilateral Emission Reduction) not bothering too much with additionality ~ benchmark? CDM Reform? Can we increase pollution tax and use the money to assist developing countries to accelerate the achievement of LCS?

6 Forest transition Forest cover 1. Triggers (road) 2. Reinforcing loops (local demand, infrastr, capital accum, pop dynamics) 3. Stabilizing loops (off-farm jobs, forest scarcity etc) Undisturbed forests Forest frontiers Forest/agric. mosaics Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics Time Source: Kaimowitz and Angelsen (1997)

7 Need assistants

8 Forest transition: Region Forest cover PNG, DR Congo Indonesia, Brazil India, Bolivia China, Costa Rica Undisturbed forests Forest frontiers Forest/agric. mosaics Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics Time Source: Slide of Murdiyarso (2008)

9 Forest transition: Indonesia Forest cover Papua Kalimantan Java? Sumatra Undisturbed forests Forest frontiers Forest/agric. mosaics Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics Time Source: Slide of Murdiyarso (2008)

10 Per capita Emission in With addition emission 6000 from forest fire (including peat lands), level 4000 of per capita emission from Indonesian is almost Min the same 2000 as developed countries 0 Max Huge fires normally occur in El-Nino years Qatar Unit Emirat Australia USA New Zealand Singapur Belanda German EU25 Afrika Brazil China Indonesia India Negara Ded.Cs Maju Dvg.Cs Negara World Dunia Per Emisi capita per kapita emission (ton (ton CO2e). CO2 e) Emission (Mt CO2) Source: Baumert et al, 2005

11 National Target for REDD and Sink Enhancement 25 Land Rehabilitation Avoid Deforestation dan degradation Combating illegal logging and forest fire Target (Million Ha) An ambisious target (funding for land/forest rehabilitation only about 11 trilions or about 1.20 billion USD) ~ 2-4 million ha

12 GHG Sequestration and Emission Projection for LUCF in Indonesia 1,400 1,200 Emission Sequestration Programmatic CDM 1, Million ton CO2 IFCA works on REDDI Polution taxes, DNS, CSR etc

13 Baseline REDD STUDY IN INDONESIA Reduced Deforestation Monitoring Carbon markets ($) Payment distribution mechanism How much forest will be lost in the future? What can be done to reduce deforestation? What would it take to implement it? How much would it cost? Where to start from? How can we prove that reduced deforestation as really taken place? Who is entitled to sell forestry carbon? Who are the buyers? (Local and Global) How is the price formed?- give benefit to the sellers? How should carbon transactions be regulated? How will carbon payments be distributed to provide incentives to reduce deforestation? Who has a legal entitlement to receive payments?

14 Challenges for REDDI Governance Understanding the drivers of deforestation Illegal logging and illegal trading (leakage) Resolving central-local authorities Payment mechanisms Via market system: Carbon credit (various types of carbon assets) Non-market system (additional ODA, public fund, DNS etc) ~ carbon and other PES (biodiversity) Payment distribution Transparency and accountability Efficiency and equitability Social issues Forest-dependence group (promote benefits for forest-dependent community ) Elite capture Legal and regulatory Rules of the game - how to keep it simple? Property right issues

15