ALBERTA S FOREST INDUSTRY MEETING ITS GHG AND ECONOMIC GOALS

Transcription

1 ALBERTA S FOREST INDUSTRY MEETING ITS GHG AND ECONOMIC GOALS GARY BULL FACULTY OF FORESTRY, UBC, VANCOUVER BIOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS FORUM: MEETING OUR GHG GOALS CALGARY, AB SEPT 9-10, 2013

2 UPDATE ON NORTH AMERICAN FOREST CARBON STANDARD GARY BULL, UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA FORESTS AND ENERGY GROWING TOWARDS A CARBON NEUTRAL ALBERTA OCTOBER 20, OCTOBER 21, 2010 MAPLE LEAF ROOM, LISTER HALL CONFERENCE CENTRE, UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA 87 AVENUE AND 116 STREET, EDMONTON, ALBERTA

3 3 OUTLINE Context Economic Goals GHG Goals How to mix and match in the forest industry Create a rulebook Remove the policy barriers Learn by doing Meet both goals

4 4 GLOBAL EMISSIONS

5 5 CANADIAN EMISSIONS _e_01.pdf

6 6 VOLUNTARY MARKETS

7 ECONOMICS- MARGINAL ABATEMENT COST CURVES 7

8 8 ECONOMIC GOALS

9 9 GO GREEN

10 10 AB ROADMAP 2012

11 FOREST INDUSTRY CHALLENGES FOR FIBER SECURITY 11 Mountain Pine Beetle Land Use Change- losses to conservation and other industrial users Biodiversity Competing Land Uses Oil and gas, mining, ecological services

12 12 ALBERTA MPB 2007

13 13 ALBERTA MPB

14 14 GHG GOALS

15 15 ALBERTA GHG DEFICIT

16 16 ENGINEERS/BIOLOGISTS

17 17 STATUS REPORT ON AB Little action in AB on the forest carbon solutions No standard for forest carbon No market mechanisms (OTC trades) Yes the fossil fuel industry is interested and early on there were some companies that were the most progressive at the global scale. We heard this in 2010!

18 18 THE REST OF THE WORLD! What is happening elsewhere? Review a few examples

19 19 GREAT BEAR FOREST CARBON

20 20 CALIFORNIA

21 21 DISNEY TO UP ANTE ON CARBON OFFSETS The entertainment giant that runs the Happiest Place On Earth is wild about carbon offsets, so much so that the Walt Disney Company will expand its already substantial voluntary offset purchasing program to account for indirect emissions... Internal price of carbon - $11 to $14 per metric ton. Source: Greenbiz: Sept. 19, 2013.

22 22 COMPETITION The Kariba REDD+ Project will generate carbon credits (20MT) from reduced emissions associated with improved forest management (i.e deforestation) over 30 years ha, 6.7 million t per year. The project was announced yesterday, October 07, 2013 as validated and verified and registered with Markit. Source: Ditto Congo Basis REDD project. 2.5 million t CO2E per year on ha.

23 23 MANAGING THE FORESTS Increase growth Reduce/increase harvest Increase use of biomass Increase area of forest

24 14 YIELD CURVES

25 22 Height GENETIC GAINS Forecast the stand following Lambeth s approach Age

26 26 BARRIERS TO INNOVATION An example, Marker Assisted Selection (MAS) MAS will reduce biological diversity MAS technology is not understood MAS is expensive so why do it MAS is a tool designed for industry

27 MODELLING STRUCTURE 27 Resource Inventory Spatially explicit Growth and Yield Modelling Improved growing stock (Increase SI + 15%) Economic Agent Production planning Strategy choice Processing Harvesting Manufacturing Carbon Pricing Market Model Capital Recovery Incorporate new markets

28 28 Carbon (Co2e) CASE STUDY: ALBERTA 4.50E E E E E E E E E E+00 Improved +15% Baseline BAU Years Economic agents 7 pulp mills 21 saw mills 8 panel mills Conifer species: Sw, Pj, Pl, Sb Sensitive to product recovery factors and production capacity 1 Non commercial landbase Public land commercial landbase

29 29 RESOURCE OPERATIONS & LOGISTICS SIMULATION SOFTWARE Specifications: Based on JaamSim simulation engine Java based software Multi-agent concept Features: Captures high level of detail throughout bioenergy supply chain (Close to emulation) Highly integratable with Google Earth and GIS datasets 3D and interactive graphics Intuitive graphical user interfaces Developed in-house (2:32)

30 30 INDUSTRY ACTION PLAN Review government policies and identify obstacles Secure the landbase for projects through co-operatives Create bio-solution GHG standards Use and develop automated tools to reduce transaction costs Links with existing and future reporting requirements in areas such as health, safety and environment Link with First Nations aspiration on the landbase Harmonize standards and procedures to meet marketplace requirements

31 31 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Suborna Ahmed Sean Pledger Saeed Ghafghazi Kyle Lochhead Chelsea Nilhausen. A fabulous team of talent!!!! They are all looking for the next great step in their careers!!!!!!!

32 CANADIAN FOREST INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE 32 Pulp and Paper Green Transformation Program - $950 Million Reduced mills GHG by 10% from 2009 levels t per Increased energy produced by 200 Mw Source: Accessed Oct. 4 th, 2013.