Modeling Timber Supply from Planted Forests in South America and European Forestry: A Snapshot

Transcription

1 Modeling Timber Supply from Planted Forests in South America and European Forestry: A Snapshot SOFAC Speech, 7 August 2013 Drawn from a Speech Presented at: 3 rd International Congress on Planted Forests Porto, Portugal 17 May 2013

2 Contributors, Co-Authors and Countries Fred Cubbage, USA Robert Abt, USA James Jeuck, USA Alvaro Perez de Castillo, Uruguay Luiz Carlos Rodriguez, Brasil Carlos Bohaman, Chile Sergio Alonso Orrego, Colombia Hugo Fassola, Argentina Louis Colcombet, Argentina Lawson Creekmore, USA Jesse Henderson, USA Omar Carrero, Venezuela Adriana Bussoni, Uruguay Bruno Kanieski, Brasil Marjorie Martin, Chile Victor Nieto, Colombia Patricia Egolf, Argentina Fernanda Pietratuono, Argentina

3 Economics

4 Area of Planted Forests by Function, Million Ha Africa Asia Oceania Europe North America Productive Forest Protective Forest Central America South America FAO 2005; million ha productive (78%); 30.1 million ha protective (22%); million ha total Planted forests could comprise 2/3 of industrial wood production (Carle and Holmgren 2008)

5 Total Productive Plantation Area For Major Countries in the World, Thousand Ha China U.S.A. Russian Fed Brazil Indonesia Chile Thailand France New Zealand Viet Nam Australia Malaysia FAO 2006 Working Paper FP38E EU planted: Finland 5904; Germany 5283; Sweden 3613

6 Total Productive Plantation Area For Major Countries in the World, Thousand Ha Spain S Africa Argentina Portugal India Venezuela Uruguay Peru Sweden Colombia Ecuador Mexico Paraguay FAO 2006 Working Paper FP38E

7 Annual Increase in Production by Region (%) South America Europe Oceania World 75% 65% N. & C. America 55% 45% 35% Countries accountable for changes in production of indutrial roundwood in South America Africa 25% 15% 5% Asia -5% -15% Brazil Chile Argentina Uruguay Ecuador -1.25% -0.25% 0.75% IAGA 1.75% 2.75% 3.75% Source: Gonzalez et al. 2008, NCSU, from FAO 2007 FAO 2007, Gonzalez et al. 2008

8 Production and Consumption of Industrial Roundwood in South America, 2003 Suriname Guyana Bolivia Venezuela Ecuador Colombia Peru Argentina Brazil Uruguay Paraguay Argentina Chile Chile Brazil Production Million m 3 Consumption Source: FAO 2007, Gonzalez Gonzalez et al. et 2008, al NCSU, from FAO 2007

9 Global Leader in Market Pulp Production capacity of the world s leading pulp producers in 2009 ( 000 tons) Source: Hawkins Wright; Fibria

10 Why worry about global supply? Supply from the rest of the world continues to grow, while traditional suppliers (US, Europe, Canada) have difficulty expanding supply Million Cubic Meters Rest of World United States Europe South America Canada Year Daigneault et al. 2008

11 SubRegional Timber Supply (SRTS) Model Description Inventory, Growth, Removals and Acres are Tracked By: Region e.g. survey units Owner Corp or NIPF Species Group Pine, Soft Hwd, Hard Hardwood Mgt. Type Planted Pine, Natural Pine, Mix Pine, Upland Hwd, Lowland Hwd Age Class 5 year Stand growth projection into future

12 SRTS Inventory Projection Stand table projection by forest management type though age classes V1 = Vo + G R + Area V1 = Volume in Year 1 Vo = Initial volume per age class G = Net annual growth (net current annual increment) R = Removals (harvests + clearing) Area = Change in area by management type

13 Typical SRTS Resource Analysis Project Demand or Harvest Assumption based on trends Harvest uses FIA historical Demand uses macroeconomic drivers Project Acres (timberland/planted) assumption price responsive Project Growth FIA for natural forests Can increase growth for planted pine

14 Model Outputs by Product Inventory Trends Harvest Shifts Between Owners/Regions/Types Price Trends

15 Southern USA Pine Sawtimber Projections, =100 Pine Sawtimber Price Inventory Removals =100 Pine Sawtimber Price Inventory Removals

16 Pine Product Inventory Shifts Southern U.S. Projected Shifts in Inventory,

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18 Shifting from the U.S. South to SRTS (Far) South America Same principles apply for plantations Advance inventory through age classes Stand table projection 5 year classes Pines grow at similar rotations But eucalyptus have most of rotation in 6-7 years Moderate model adaptation underway Demand, elasticities, land change also more dynamic & exogenous

19 Research Hypotheses H 1 : The joint SRTS southern U.S. and South America partial equilibrium models will provide better projections of timber supply in both regions than the global general equilibrium models. H 2 : The collection and use of detailed, fine scale data on timber area, inventory, growth, and removals in the SRTS framework will lead to better projections of timber supply in both regions of the Americas than the global general equilibrium models. H 3 : The fine scale SRTS South America model can provide a useful new management decision making tool for investors and companies there.

20 Research Hypotheses H 4 : The fine scale SRTS South America model can provide a useful tool for national timber supply, carbon accounting and REDD projects, and policy analyses. H 5 : South America will continue to increase its timber supply and global shares of industrial wood production and related forest products industries.

21 Calculating Timberland Area, Timber Inventory, and Annual Growth (1)Area by Age Class = Ha of Planted Area per Year Aged to Number of Years since Planting (2) Total Inventory Volume by Age Class = MAI*Age of Stand*Planted Area in Ha (3) Total Growth Volume by Age Class = MAI*Planted Area in Ha

22 Growth and Harvest Inputs for Uruguay as an Example Year (Amount Removed) Euc. Globulus Euc. Grandis Pinus taeda Growth Rate as MAI (m3/ha/yr) Year of Harvest (m3/ha removed) First Thinning (1/4) 10 (60) 9 (40) Second Thinning (1/4) 12 (44) Final Harvest (100%) 9 (200) 16 (340) 22 (312)

23 Uruguay Plantation Area by Age Class (ha), 2011 Uruguay Plantation Area Species Group: Area (ha) Year of Planting Age Class Euc globulus, pulp species Euc grandis, dunii Pinus taeda, Otros pinos ,964 25,319 6, ,918 36,791 9, ,653 51,599 10, ,395 61,916 12, ,687 57,578 6, ,064 32,367 12, ,204 17,106 4, ,521 9,876 6, ,763 6,941 5, ,974 7,196 8, ,946 8,376 14, ,299 9,359 22, ,860 9,764 23, ,606 14,730 18, ,885 9,403 11, ,801 7,106 5, ,230 3, ,971 1, ,321 1, , Total 257, , ,297

24 Uruguay Plantation Volume by Age Class (000m3 ob), 2011 Uruguay Plantation Area Species Group: Area (ha) Year of Planting Age Class Euc globulus, pulp species Euc grandis, dunii Pinus taeda, Otros pinos , , , ,737 2,022, , ,145,527 4,201, , ,007,442 6,878, , ,460,776 7,837, , ,782,117 5,266,213 1,363, ,439,219 3,233, , ,210,158 2,157,475 1,031, ,943,661 1,803, , ,313,328 2,045,889 1,601, ,223,919 2,711,720 2,907, ,545,496 2,996,295 5,155, ,277,308 3,483,248 5,789, ,315,198 5,953,420 4,820, ,732 4,191,418 3,121, ,893 3,425,907 1,678, ,838 3,664,429 1,030, ,665 3,638, , ,387 3,025, , ,574 2,371, , , , , , , , ,510 1, ,812 57, ,510 43, ,697 30, ,595 2, , , , , ,999 Total 26,354,059 73,241,805 35,408,878

25 Uruguay E. globulus Timber Inventory Available Vs. Projected Demand (000 m3) Inventory Demand

26 Uruguay E. grandis Timber Inventory Available Vs. Projected Demand (000 m3) Inventory Demand

27 Uruguay P. taeda Timber Inventory Available Vs. Projected Demand (000 m3) Inventory Demand

28 SOFAC March 2007

29 SOFAC March 2007

30 Brazil Plantation Area by Age Class (ha), 2011 BRAZIL: Plantation Area Species Group: Area (ha) Year of Planting Age Class Eucs (expanded) Eucs (members) Pinus (expanded) Pinus (members) Total

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32 SOFAC March 2007

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34 Hectares Timber Plantation Trends per Year, Brazil, Eucalyptus Pine 0

35 Hectares Timber Plantations by Age Class, Brazil, Pinus BRACELPA DATA ABRAF DATA Years

36 Hectares Timber Plantations by Age Class, Brazil, Eucalyptus ABRAF DATA BRACELPA DATA Years

37 Argentina Plantation Area by Age Class (ha), 2011 BRAZIL: Plantation Area Species Group: Area (ha) Year of Planting Age Class Eucs (members) Pinus (expanded) Pinus (members) ,117 40, ,117 40, ,117 40, ,117 40, ,117 40, ,414 52, ,414 52, ,414 52, ,194 20, ,194 20, ,194 20, ,194 20, ,304 12, ,304 12, ,304 12, ,304 12, ,304 12, ,985 13, ,985 13, , ,974 Total

38 SOFAC March 2007

39 SOFAC March 2007

40 Chile Plantation Area by Age Class (ha), 2011 BRAZIL: Plantation Area Species Group: Area (ha) Year of Planting Age Class Eucalyptus Pino Total

41 Age Chile Planted Forest Area by Species Group, Euc Pino

42 SOFAC March 2007

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45 Conclusions Timber Modeling SRTS Model extended to South America Data collection off to good start Planted area by age class for Uruguay, Brasil, Chile in process Argentina, Colombia, Venezuela soon SRTS model adaptations in progress Should provide much more detail than previous efforts, for whole region Stay tuned

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48 SOFAC March 2007

49 European Forest Trends 178 million ha in 27 EU countries vs. 82 million ha in US South ~500 million m3 (tons)/yr EU harvests vs ~375 million tons in US South EU forests older and more decadent EU Harvests only 64% of growth, and declining million m3/yr EU damaged or killed EU forestry becoming more nature oriented Could cause a 160 million m3 cut loss by million tons EU pellet demand 2010 No major EU forest / plantation investments occurring now Nabuurs et al. 2013

50 European forest management is nature oriented Which may cause a shortfall of wood supply of ~190 million m3/y by 2060 (Nabuurs et al. 2006, 2013) 1 ton ~ 1 m3

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64 Modeling Timber Supply from Planted Forests in South America and European Forestry: A Snapshot SOFAC Speech, 7 August 2013 Drawn from a Speech Presented at: 3 rd International Congress on Planted Forests Porto, Portugal 17 May 2013