(R)EDD monitoring by WWF Indonesia WWF data contained in this presentation is not yet published, Please keep this for your eyes only.

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1 (R)EDD monitoring by WWF Indonesia WWF data contained in this presentation is not yet published, Please keep this for your eyes only. ALOS K&C9 meeting, 24 January 2008 Yumiko Uryu Consultant to WWF

2 REDD and Indonesia Ca. 20% of the world s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are caused by deforestation globally, ca. 50% of that in Indonesia and Brazil (Baumert et al. 2006). Indonesia s CO 2 emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, peat decomposition and burning make the country the 3 rd CO 2 emitter in the world (PEACE 2007, CAIT Ver.5.0, Hooijer et al. 2006). Peat decomposition & burning: 2,000 MtCO 2 e (40%) Energy: 275 MtCO 2 e (5%) Agriculture: 141 MtCO 2 e (3%) Waste: 35 MtCO 2 e (1%) Most of this is caused by deforestation. LULUCF: 2,563 MtCO 2 e (51%) Indonesia s total CO 2 emissions Most of this is caused by deforestation and forest degradation.

3 REDD and Indonesia and Riau Riau is the top driver of national deforestation. Riau s annual deforestation rate is higher than even in the Brazilian Amazon. Maps produced from MODIS/SPOT Vegetation by SarVision Riau has the largest volume of peat in the country, with estimated 14.6 Gt of carbon (Wahyunto et al. 2003). They are highly threatened by deforestation, causing large amount of CO 2 emission.

4 REDD and Riau and WWF WWF aims to stop deforestation in Riau by : Getting all of Riau Province and related areas chosen as official pilot REDD areas. Providing baseline data needed for the process. Improving the current the Eyes on the Forest deforestation monitoring system. How can ALOS help?

5 Baseline data generated so far Deforestation Forest Degradation CO 2 Emissions Biodiversity Loss Past: and Future: Data: 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2007 Landsat/field survey based land use maps, some simple forest-non forest maps from 1982, above ground biomass, peat atlas, fire hotspots, decomposition parameters, biodiversity (Sumatra elephant and tiger) distribution, land owner/users/concession, topography/infrastructure maps, field surveys, etc..

6 Past DD

7 Forest Cover 1982 Riau 1982 Mainland = Peatland forest = Non peatland forest = 8,265,556 ha 3,238,642 ha 3,181,857 ha

8 Deforestation Peatland forest loss since % Non peatland forest loss since % Total deforestation = 4,166,381 ha

9 Deforestation Baseline Peatland and non peatland forest areas ,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 Peatland forest Non peatland forest Poly. (Peatland forest) Poly. (Non peatland forest) 2,000,000 1,500,000 Forest Cover (ha) 1,000, ,

10 Average annual deforestation and impact of pulp industry 300, ,000 Non Peatland Deforestation Peatland Deforestation Riau pulp industry defaults on debt Riau pulp industry investigation for illegal logging 286,146 ha 11% loss! 36% Deforestation (ha) 200, , ,000 67% 65% 61% 38% 64% 27% 37% 62% 50,000 33% 35% 39% 20% 80% 73% 63% Data Period

11 WWF Riau 2007 Land Cover Database

12 What replaced natural forests? % of deforestation 24% of deforestation 29% of deforestation

13 Peatland Degradation ,200,000 Dry lowland forest very open canopy 1,000, ,000 Dry lowland forest medium open canopy (canopy closure 40-70%) Area (ha) 600, , ,000 Dry lowland forest rather closed canopy (canopy closure %) Degraded to medium open canopy Replaced by Acacia plantation Replaced by Small holder oil palm plantation Replaced by Waste" land Degraded to very open canopy Replaced by Oil palm plantation Replaced by Cleared land Replaced by Other land covers

14 Non Peatland Degradation ,800,000 Peatland forest very open canopy 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 Peatland forest medium open canopy (canopy closure 40-70%) Area (ha) 1,000, , , ,000 Peatland forest rather closed canopy (canopy closure %) 200, Degraded to medium open canopy Degraded to very open canopy Replaced by Acacia plantation Replaced by Oil palm plantation Replaced by Small holder oil palm plantation Replaced by Cleared land Replaced by Waste" land Replaced by Other land covers

15 CO 2 emissions from Riau, Cummulative Emissions (Gt CO2) Net Emission: 0.36 Net Emission: Net Emission: Net Emission: Cummulative Sequestration (Gt CO2) Emission by Deforestation Emission by Peat Decomposition Emission by Peat fire Emission by Forest Degradation Sequestration by Replacing Land Covers

16 Average annual CO 2 emissions from Riau Riau alone produced more CO2 per year than Germany saved to achieved Kyoto goals.

17 Elephant population decline in Riau, ,000, Non peatland forests Forest Cover (ha) 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, y = x x + 7E+06 R 2 = y = x x R 2 = y = x x + 3E+06 R 2 = All remaining forests Est. elephant population Poly. (Est. elephant population) Poly. (Non peatland forests) Poly. (All remaining forests) Only left! Elephant Population Estimate

18 The Future

19 Forest Cover (ha) 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 (1) Business As Usual (2) Full implementation of draft Land Use Plan Actual Forest Cover Reference for Avoided Deforestation Calculations Future deforestation scenario for peatland forest ,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 (1) Business As Usual (2) Full implementation of draft Land Use Plan Actual Forest Cover 1,500,000 1,000,000 Future deforestation scenario for non peatland forest 500,

20 2007 Peatland forest loss since % Non peatland forest loss since %

21 Deforestation Scenario based on Riau draft land use plan Peatland forest loss since % Non peatland forest loss since % Additional deforestation = 1,001,750 ha

22 Deforestation Scenario based on Business as Usual Peatland forest loss since % Non peatland forest loss since % Additional deforestation = 1,945,157 ha

23 What would replace natural forests? Based on Riau draft land use plan 74% of deforestation 23% of deforestation

24 CO 2 emissions from Riau from Deforestation only 1.00 Estimated Carbon Stock in Forest Biomass (Gt) Gt CO 2 already released 0.94 Gt CO 2 could be released 0.49 Gt CO 2 could be released Scenario (1) "Business as Usual" 2015 Scenario (2) "Draft Land Use Plan" Carbon Stock in Peat Swamp & Swamp Forest Carbon Stock in Dry Lowland & Mangrove Forest