Latest Canadian Forest Service Research Supporting Forest Sector Climate Change Adaptation

Transcription

1 Latest Canadian Forest Service Research Supporting Forest Sector Climate Change Adaptation Rik Van Bogaert & Miren Lorente Canadian Forest Service (CFS), Natural Resources Canada CIF National Electronic Series October 18, 2017

2 2 Climate Change Science in the CFS Decades of research - Diversity of expertise Multi-disciplinarity - Several syntheses

3 3 Forest Change Natural Resources Canada - CFS Adaptation Program Enhancing competitiveness in a changing climate o More tan 70 CFS staff from CFS centres o Improved coordination and focus o From discipline-specific to cross- and inter-disciplinarity science o Knowledge products and tools to inform adaptation decision making o Emphasis on knowledge exchange and transfer $1M/yr: o First phase: o Renewed:

4 4 Forest Change Tracking System of Indicators Adaptation Toolkit Integrated Assessment (IA) Trends and outlooks Tools and resources Potential impacts of cc on the forest sector

5 5 Tracking System To raise awareness and inform about the occurrence and scope of ongoing changes across Canadian forests associated with climate change To support the inclusion of adaptation considerations in forest management planning and forest-related policies Lorente et al. (submitted). Tracking forest changes: Canadian Forest Service indicators of climate change.

6 6 Identification of indicators of change Consultation process to develop a list of potential indicators (141) Scan of existing initiatives: national and abroad Selection framework Gauthier et al. (2014a) Available on-line: cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=35231

7 7 Selection of indicators on 15 topics From an initial list of 141 indicators, selection based on: o Relevance to decision making o Extent of coverage (space and time) o Sensitivity to climate o Measurability o Feasibility Gauthier et al. (2014a)

8 System Topic Indicator Climate Forest Drought Fire weather Growing season Permafrost Tree species distribution Fire regime Tree mortality Pest incidence Forest growth Phenology Climate Moisture Index (CMI)* Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)* Soil Moisture Index (SMI)* Start + end + length of fire season* Length of growing season* Permafrost temperature Distribution of tree species* Annual area burned* Number of large fires* Fire seasonality* Percent annual loss of living tree biomass* Pest species distribution Radial growth trends Timing of budburst Human Windthrow Cost of fire protection Wildfire evacuations Wildland Urban Interface Transportation Uprooting return interval Wildfire suppression resource expenditures* Number of evacuations & evacuees* Evacuations location* Number of home losses* Population at risk of forest fire Freeze-thaw of winter roads * Available on-line: cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/forestchange

9 9 Forest Change Website cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/forestchange

10 10 Indicators on the website - Drought Past trends Aspen parkland Hogg et al. (2013) ; Wang et al. (2014) cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/forestchange

11 11 The outlook 3 time periods Short-term: Medium-term: Long-term: Reference period: greenhouse gas emissions scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6: Rapid emissions reductions RCP 4.5: Moderate emissions reductions RCP 8.5: Continued emissions increases Hogg et al. (2013) ; Wang et al. (2014) cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/forestchange

12 Forest Change Data catalogue: downloadable maps and data PDF Shape Raster txt/xls NetCDF ASCII cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/fc-data-catalogue 12

13 13 Information on the Federal Geospatial Platform gcgeo.gc.ca

14 14 Information on Open Maps opendata.canada.ca

15 15 Adaptation Toolkit Climate Forest Human Climate Modelling Canada s Plant Hardiness Mapping the Occurrence of Canada s Forest Pathogens CCFM reports Climate Data for Modelling SeedWhere Forest Change Data Catalogue Database of Adaptation Options Assisted migration of tree species National Tree Seed Centre PlantWatch Canada s National Forest Inventory Bioclimatic Mapping of Forest Insects and Diseases Spatial Discrete Event Simulation

16 16 Link to SeedWhere - a climate similarity mapping tool Identifies locations with climate similar to a point of interest Employs two methods to calculate climate similarity Can be used with any number of climate variables Has been developed to incorporate climate change Can be used for both seed procurement and deployment Seed sources for planting at Sudbury, ON Deployment areas for seed from Sudbury, ON increasing similarity 0 1 McKenney et al.

17 17 Currently adding economic functionality Will help quantify the wood volume and economic return from seed transfer decisions Will allow the incorporation of universal response functions into Seedwhere model for several species (Pw, Pj, Sb, Sw) NPV ($/ha) < 0 0 to to to to to 1,000 1,000 to 1,200 1,200 to 1,400 1,400 to 1,600 1,600 to 1,800 White Pine Provenance Data White Pine Provenance Data White Pine URF White Pine Seed Deployment test site provenance Source: Yang, Pedlar, McKenney, Weersink Forest Ecology and Management 339: Yang et al. (2015)

18 18 Vulnerability of tree species to cc CLIMATE SCENARIOS D. McKenney & team INTEGRATED INFORMATION PRODUCTS Aubin et al. CLIMATE MOISTURE INDEX T. Hogg & team STAND COMPOSITION A. Beaudoin & team SPECIES TRAITS I. Aubin & team Sensitivity to drought of at-risk wood volume Potential Uses Multifaceted vulnerability assessment Integrating ecological knowledge with biophysical projections Creating value-added products from existing datasets Aubin et al. (submitted)

19 Aubin et al. submitted

20 20 Tree sensitivity to drought Stand data Species data Wood volume Sensitvity (t/ha) Acer saccharum 5 12 Acer rubrum Betula alleghaniensis 8 18 Total Total stand sensitivity Volume Sensitivity <1 t/ha 60 Species outside of hydric envelope Volume Sensitivity <1 32 <1 21 Available soon <1 47 <1 61

21 Towards a decision support tool Aubin & Boisvert-Marsh in prep. Functional Traits Good persistence ability: (drought tolerance) - Deep root system - Vegetative reproduction - fast recovery Persistence ability Migration capacity Adaptive capacity High migration capacity: - Large production of small seeds - Reach maturity early - Wind dispersion Low sensitivity Minimum intervention Strategy Increase landscape connectivity Strategy Conservation in current habitat High sensitivity Candidate species for assisted migration

22 Towards a decision support tool Aubin et al. (2016) Aubin & Boisvert-Marsh in prep. 1. Identify traits & mechanisms of tree sensitivity to main CC stressors 2. Assess sensitivities of Canadian tree species 3. Relate to management strategies Persistence ability Migration capacity Adaptive capacity Low sensitivity Minimum intervention Strategy Increase landscape connectivity Strategy Conservation in current habitat High sensitivity Candidate species for assisted migration

23 23 Database of Adaptation Options An interactive Excel version is available on the Forestry Adaptation Community of Practice (FACoP) site ( Gauthier et al. (2014b)

24 Integrated Assessment Biophysical data layers (disturbance regimes, forest productivity and composition) are used to model cc impacts on: o o o Timber supply Industry supply chain Communities

25 Temperature ( o C) Scenarios help to cope with uncertainty The biophysical analysis was done for three time periods and on different scenarios Temperature projections based on CanESM2 in forest HIGH (RCP 8.5) MEDIUM (RCP 4.5) LOW (RCP 2.6) 20 th Cent. Modelled 20 th Cent. Observed RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 Baseline RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 Year McKenney et al. (2013); Price et al. (2011)

26 Integrated Assessment: Cumulative effects will be complex Short-term impact projections ( ) ; RCP 8.5 Fire Drought Mountain pine beetle Gypsy moth Spruce budworm

27 27 Regional Integrated Assessments Regional Integrated Assessments RIA Tools Indicators Adaptation Collaboration Co-creation

28 Current RIAs Northwestern Boreal North Atlantic Prairies Eastern Boreal Maritimes Petawawa Research Forest

29 Next Steps for Forest Change Raise awareness Co-ordinate efforts Continue and extend collaboration

30 References Aubin, I., Munson, A.D., Cardou, F., et al Traits to stay, traits to move: a review of functional traits to assess sensitivity and adaptive capacity of temperate and boreal trees to climate change. Environmental Reviews, 24(2), pp Aubin, I., Boisvert-Marsh, L., Kebli, H., et al. (submitted). Tree vulnerability to climate change: improving exposure-based assessments using traits as indicators of sensitivity. Boulanger, Y.; Gray, D.R.; Cooke, B.J.; et al Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak. Global Change Biol. 22: Boulanger, Y.; Gauthier, S.; Burton, P.J A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 44: Gauthier, S., Lorente, M., Kremsater, L, et al. 2014a. Tracking Climate Change Effects Potential Indicators for Canada s Forests and Forest Sector. Natural Resources Canada. Available from Gauthier, S., Bernier, P., Isabel, N. et al. 2014b. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the managed Canadian boreal forest. Environmental Reviews, 22(3), Hogg, E.H., Barr, A.G., Black, T.A A simple moisture index for representing multi-year drought impacts on aspen productivity in the western Canadian interior. Agricultural and Forest Methodology, , Lorente M, Gauthier S, Bernier PY, et al. (submitted, Climatic Change). Tracking forest changes: Canadian Forest Service indicators of climate change. McKenney, D.W., Pedlar, J.H., Yang, J., et al., An economic analysis of seed source options under a changing climate for black spruce and white pine in Ontario, Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 45(10), pp McKenney, D., Pedlar, J, Hutchinson M., et al. (2013). Spatial climate models for Canada s forestry community. The Forestry Chronicle, 89(5), Price, D., McKenney D. Joyce L., et al High-resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for Canada derived from General Circulation Model simulations. Nat. Resour. Can., Can. For. Serv., North. For. Cent., Edmonton, AB. Inf. Rep. NOR-X-421. Wang, Y., Hogg, E.H., Price, D., et al Past and projected future changes in moisture conditions in the Canadian boreal forest. Forestry Chronicle 90, Yang,J., Pedlar, J., McKenney D., et al The development of universal response functions to facilitate climate smart regeneration of black spruce and white pine in Ontario, Canada. Forest Ecology and Management 339: 34 43