1 The Fourth GEOSS Asia Pacific Symposium Sanur Paradise Plaza Hotel and Suites, Bali, Indonesia March 2010 Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation in the Philippines Flaviana Hilario Climatology and Agrometeorology Division PAGASA/DOST
2 MDG-F 1656: Strengthening the Philippines Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change
3 Overview Donor: Government of Spain thru the MDG Achievement Fund Thematic Window on Environment and Climate Change Duration: (3 years) Amount: 8 Million US Major Partners: Government of the Philippines (NEDA, DENR, DA,DOST- PAGASA, DOH, DOLE, HUDCC, HLURB, DTI, Province of Albay) United Nations (UNDP,UNEP,FAO,HABITAT, ILO, WHO)
4 Programme Summary Supports the following Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets: Direct: 1. MDG 1- Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger 2. MDG 2- Achieve Universal Primary Education 3. MDG 3- Promote Gender Equality 4. MDG 6- Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other Diseases 5. MDG 7- Ensuring Environmental Sustainability Indirect: 1. MDG 4- Reduce Child Mortality 2. MDG 5- Improve Maternal Health
5 MDG-F for Climate Change Programme Summary This joint programme will: 1. Determine vulnerability of critical sectors of the Philippines to climate change; 2. Strengthen the country s adaptive capacity by enhancing the planning, programming and implementation capacities of key stakeholders; and 3. Undertake five (5) adaptation demonstration projects to develop / test systems for potential upscaling and replication.
6 Programme Outcomes Outcome 1: Climate risk reduction (CRR) mainstreamed into key national & selected local development plans & processes (e.g. land use/devt/investment planning & programming, EIA system) Outputs: a. Baseline risk scenario & CRR/adaptation monitoring system developed for priority sectors (water, agriculture, coastal,forestry,health); b. Adaptation options for key sectors assessed,valued and prioritized; c. CRR mainstreaming guidelines adopted by key NGAs and selected LGUs
7 Programme Outcome 2 Outcome 2 : Enhanced national & local capacity to develop, manage & administer projects addressing climate change risks (through better & effective forecasting, improving climate dependent services, strengthening academe s capacity to assist local authorities) Outputs: a. National capacity assessment b. National IEC Programme and Multimedia Materials c. CRR capacity development programme developed and implemented
8 Programme Outcome 3 Outcome 3: Coping mechanisms improved through pilot adaptation projects. Outputs: 1. Five adaptation demonstration projects
9 5 cc adaptation demo projects implemented DA/FAO Equitable Integrated Ecosystems Climate Change Adaptation in the Cordilleras (innovative adaptation measures/ technologies for agri, water/ watershed mgmt and biodiversity conservation); DOH/WHO Strengthening Disease Surveillance, Emergency Preparedness, and Response for Climate Change Related Conditions in Metro Manila and Albay; HUDCC/UN HABITAT Designing & Building with Nature: Showcasing a Climate Change Resilient Human Settlement in Sorsogon City (site selection, adaptation planning in coastal settlements);
10 5 cc adaptation demo projects implemented DTI/DOLE/ILO Climate Resilient Farming Communities in Agusan del Norte through Innovative Risk Transfer Mechanisms (innovative financial safety nets, to fund alternative livelihoods); PGA CIRCA/UNDP A2C2: A Local Governance Reform Model for Climate Resilient Development in the Bicol Region (capacity needs assessment/ training, crr enhanced land use/ dev plans, secondary/tertiary curriculum with cc concepts)
11 Equitable Integrated Ecosystems Climate Change Adaptation in the Cordilleras Strengthening Disease Surveillance, emergency Preparedness, and Response for Climate Change- Related Conditions in Metro Manila and Albay A2C2: A Local Governance Reform Model for Climate Resilient Development in Bicol Region Designing and Building with Nature: Showcasing a Climate Change Resilient Human Settlement in Sorsogon City Climate resilient farming communities in Agusan del Norte through innovative risk transfer mechanisms
12 Target Beneficiaries Policy and decision makers from key National Government Agencies (NGAs); 43++ Local Government Units (LGUs); Five Project Demo Sites Select NGOs and Academe (PNCC, PATLEPAM) Sectoral Focus (CHAW F) C Coastal; H Health; A Agriculture; W Water; F Forestry
13 Under the READY Project funded by UNDP 16. Zamboanga del Sur (City) 31. Quezon (Lopez-Calauag) 1. Surigao del Norte 17. Laguna 32. Oriental Mindoro (Calapan) 2. Surigao del Sur 18. Quirino 33. Camarines Norte (Daet) 3. Southern Leyte 19. Agusan del Sur 34. Aklan (Kalibo) 4. Ormoc 20. Nueva Viscaya 35. Cebu (Metro) 5. Bohol 21. Cagayan 36. Western Samar (Catbalogan) 6. Aurora 22. Isabela 37. Zamboanga del Norte (Dipolog) 7. Porac, Pampanga 23. Zamboanga Sibuegay 38. Bukidnon (Malaybalay) 8. Cavite 24. Rizal 39. Davao Oriental (Mati) 9. Catanduanes 25. Iloilo 40. Sarangani (General Santos City) 10. Eastern Samar 26. Ilocos Norte 41. CARAGA (Agusan Norte, Butuan City) 11. Northern Samar 27. Benguet (Baguio and La Trinidad) 12. Zambales (Subic) Under READY Project funded by GOP 42. CAR (Mt. Province, Bontoc) 43. ARMM 13. Antique 28. Pangasinan (Dagupan) Other Priority Areas 14. Ilocus Sur (Vigan) 29. Batanes (Basco) 44. Liguasan Marsh 15. Abra 30. Bulacan (DRT San Miguel)
14 Downscaled HadCM3 A1B scenario for 2020 and 2050 for 43 LGUs using PRECIS Started downscaling ECHAM4 A2 scenarios for 43 LGUs using PRECIS
15 Projected changes in future climates in Mean Temperature for 2020 and 2050 under A1B scenario over Philippines DJF_2020 DJF_2050 Projections for mean temp are likely to increase by o C in 2020 & o C in MAM_2020 MAM_2050 Projections for mean temp are likely to increase by o C in 2020 & o C in 2050.
16 Future Plans Climate Change Scenario:Downscaling of GCMs Impacts assessment using different emission scenario National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation