James M. Vose USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station Center for Integrated Forest Science

Transcription

1 THE CHANGING U.S. FORESTS: HUMAN AND CLIMATE IMPACTS James M. Vse USDA Frest Service Suthern Research Statin Center fr Integrated Frest Science

2 Frest develp in respnse t the physical envirnment, bilgical dynamics, and human decisins regarding use. Changing Frests Enduring Values

3 Current science n climate and frests 2013 Natinal Climate Assessment technical input dcument 45 expert authrs frm federal agencies, universities, NGO s Mre than 1000 peerreviewed citatins Jim Vse, Dave Petersn, Tral Patel-Weynand Changing Frests Enduring Values

4 The Natinal Climate Assessment reprt answers tw key questins: Hw will climate change affect frest ecsystems in the United States? Which adaptatin and mitigatin strategies can be used t respnd t climate change? Changing Frests Enduring Values

5 Higher CO 2 and ther greenhuse gases Changes in the Earth s climate system 1.4 F increase ver past 100 years Lss f Arctic ice Sea level rise (8 since 1870) Heat waves and extreme temperatures Changing Frests Enduring Values

6 What s ging t happen in the future? Observatins Experiments Frecasting mdels

7 Temperature Future climate Precipitatin Frm Kunkel et al. (2013) Changing Frests Enduring Values

8 Drught severity will increase Frm Burke et al. (2006) Changing Frests Enduring Values

9 Sea level will rise Frm Paris et al. (2011) Changing Frests Enduring Values

10 Climate change will have significant effects n U.S. frests Direct effects Warming Changing precipitatin (amunt and extremes) Elevated CO 2 Sea level rise Indirect effects Fire Insects and pathgens Invasive species Cmbined effects, stress cmplexes Changing Frests Enduring Values

11 Direct Effects Higher grwth where nutrients and sil misture are available Lwer grwth in water-limited frests and where benefits are ffset by disturbance Higher mrtality in drier areas Altered habitat that will affect distributin f plant and animal species Altered hydrlgic, nutrient, and carbn cycling prcesses Changing Frests Enduring Values

12 Distributin and abundance f tree species will change Changing cnditins will substantially alter suitable habitat fr many species Lsers and winners Pssible km nrthward mvement by 2100 Pace f change may be faster than species can migrate Species distributin mdels (Prasad and Iversn 1999) Changing Frests Enduring Values

13 Hydrlgic and bigechemical cycling will change Changing snw amunt (lwer) and snwmelt timing (earlier) Increased flding, ersin, landslide ptential Higher N in streams Increased C strage in Eastern frests Ptential increase may be ffset by lss f frests, drught, ther disturbance Decreased C strage in Western frests Changing Frests Enduring Values

14 Indirect effects and stress cmplexes will alter many frests Indirect effects: altered disturbance regimes Wildfire Insects and pathgens Invasive species Stress cmplexes: cmbinatins f stressrs Warming + drught + fire exclusin + insects + air pllutin Changing Frests Enduring Values

15 Prjected wildfire area burned Statistical mdel utput: Changes cmpared t Data frm J. Littell Changing Frests Enduring Values

16 Prjected wildfire ptential Prjected Keetch- Byram drught index, based n temperature and precipitatin changes fr the end f the 21 st century Winter Summer Spring Autumn Orange-red clrs indicate areas with highest fire ptential Data frm Liu et al. (2010) Changing Frests Enduring Values

17 Insect utbreaks are widespread Muntain pine beetle and ther insects are expanding, including at high elevatins This will prbably cntinue as the climate warms Changing Frests Enduring Values

18 Insect utbreaks are widespread Suthern pine beetle hazard map Hazard will increase as the climate cntinues t warm Hazard rating White = nne Green = lw Yellw = mderate Orange = high Data frm US Frest Service Frest Health Prtectin Changing Frests Enduring Values

19 Insect utbreaks are widespread Suthern pine beetle has reached the New Jersey pinelands Winter temperature is n lnger lw enugh t kill beetles This utbreak is changing the eclgy f frests in the regin Aerial pht by Bb Williams, Land Dimensins Clse-up pht by Erich Vallery, US Frest Service Changing Frests Enduring Values

20 Invasive plant species will increase Many invasives are mre cmpetitive at higher temperatures Cgngrass (right) is increasing in the sutheastern U.S. Pht by James Meeker, US Frest Service Changing Frests Enduring Values

21 Stress cmplexes will be affected Interactins f multiple stressrs will accelerate with higher temperature and mre drughts by a warmer climate Stress cmplexes fr upland and castal frests in the suthern U.S. (right) Changing Frests Enduring Values Frm Dn McKenzie

22 Climate change effects and management respnses will differ acrss rural t urban envirnments RURAL WILDLAND-URBAN URBAN Land-use change Fire risk Tree health Rural ecnmy Hme values & safety Cmfrt & energy use Incentives Firewise Intensive treatments Changing Frests Enduring Values

23 What can we d abut climate change in frest ecsystems? Slw it dwn = Mitigate carbn) Buy sme time = Adapt systems and species) (manage (prepare Changing Frests Enduring Values

24 Land wnership patterns will affect management respnses Public frest lands dminate much f the western U.S., whereas private lands dminate in the East Frm Wear and Jyce (2012) Changing Frests Enduring Values

25 Human Impacts Brad scale decisins abut land use Frest vs. alternative Managed vs. unmanaged

26 Human Ppulatin Change A1B Scenari Additinal # peple per sq. mile by 2060 Wear 2011 Changing Frests Enduring Values

27 Changes in majr land uses A1B Scenari Wear 2011 Changing Frests Enduring Values

28 Ttal Frest Land in Cnterminus U.S.

29 Changes in Frest Land Use A1B Scenari Prprtinal change in frest land use Wear 2011 Changing Frests Enduring Values

30 Cnclusins disturbances Increased wildfire will have majr eclgical, scial, and ecnmic effects by the mid-21 st century. Bark beetles and ther insects will have majr effects in sme frests. Invasive plants and sme pathgens will increase, but with uncertain lng-term utcmes. Changing Frests Enduring Values

31 Cnclusins prcesses Hydrlgy and bigechemical cycling will differ by frest ecsystem, interacting with altered disturbance and decreased snwpack. Species will mve up in elevatin and nrth, but with high variability; mdels disagree n spatial and tempral patterns. Carbn strage will decrease in the western U.S. and may increase in the East. Changing Frests Enduring Values

32 Cnclusins land use change Ppulatin grwth and ther factrs are likely t put pressure n frest land uses and may result in a lss f frests. Prjected lsses will be cncentrated in the eastern U.S., cinciding with where the majrity f private frest wnership is lcated.

33 Cnclusins frest management Managing frests t help mitigate and adapt t climate change will be critical. Land wners and managers have always had t deal with external stressrs what s different is the pace and magnitude f climate change. Private land wners will play a crucial rle!

34 Fr mre infrmatin See the publicatin Cntact the authrs Jim Vse USFS Suthern Res. Stn. Dave Petersn USFS Pacific Nrthwest Res. Stn. Changing Frests Enduring Values