CURRENT MARKETS AND FUTURE POSSIBILITIES. Presented by Stephen Cole

Transcription

1 CURRENT MARKETS AND FUTURE POSSIBILITIES 2014 Presented by Stephen Cole

2 H.C. Haynes Inc. Started in Nova Scotia in 1995 Originally from Maine; started in 1963 In Maine we own timberland, log trucks, and do real estate development In Nova Scotia we buy timber from Private Woodlot Owners and sell it to the strongest market we sold approximately 300,000 tonnes on behalf of landowners in Nova Scotia (18% of all wood from private woodlots in the Province) Everything from 200 acres of timber, to 2 truckloads of pulpwood that you cut yourself this winter.

3 H.C. Haynes Inc. Broker ALL forest products Mills usually cover our $2-$3/tonne commission for delivering large volumes/financing their log yards Show options that are available for products at all the mills. Find the best one for YOU Organize trucking for highest roadside price Pay fair trucking rate Show speciality products and prices Mixed loads for small producers

4 AMERICAN HOUSING STARTS million , ,000 (predicted 750,000) ,000 (predicted to be 1.1 million) 2014 predicted to be 1.1 million

5 LUMBER PRICES RANDOM LENGTHS (US $) $293/MBF $423/MBF don t forget the exchange on the dollar 2-5 % ($436/MBF CAD) Exchange on dollar at 9-10% now CAD $472/MBF

6 THAT DARN DOLLAR From 2010 to 2013 the Canadian $$ was at or above par for the most part. Today our dollar does not beat the Americans, but our hockey teams sure do. The effect of our $$ dropping below par is a double positive; 1. Our forest products are cheaper for the Americans to purchase so we gain market share (ship more MBF) 2. The lumber is paid for in American $$, so long as we are below par we gain a percentage (higher price per MBF) The result is a good market for Canadian lumber producers to sell products. And two Olympic Gold Medals in Hockey.

7 KRAFT PULP, NEWSPRINT KRAFT PULP (NBSK) $870/TON Today is around US $1,000/ton NEWSPRINT $ 615/TON Today is around US $580/ton SUPER CALENDAR $625/TON ALL ARE FAIRLY STATIC

8 EFFECTS OF COMPETITION BOWATER CLOSED JUNE 2012 PORT HAWKESBURY PAPER OPENED OCTOBER 2012 SCOTIA ATLANTIC OPENED JULY 2013 ROADSIDE PRICES/TONNE AT OAKHILL FOR SOFTWOOD FIBER LEDWIDGE 3.5 $56/TONNE ROADSIDE DATE BOWATER #1 NORTHERN #1 NORTHERN #2 SCOTIA ATLANTIC Sep Oct Dec May Jul Oct Mar Jul Nov Today

9 Pulpwood or Studwood?

10 The Haynes Price List The prices on that list are what we can pay YOU Some posted prices are absolute, some have room to negotiate We pay every week for wood that is trucked We can pay for timber OR road construction in advance (adverse weather or advances on woodlots) We offer the services of honest, reliable harvesting contractors, truckers, and professional Foresters

11 CURRENT MARKETS Spruce Logs Heflers 5 OR 11 top Elmsdale 4 Freeman 6 Turners 5 OR 11 Sp/Fir Studs (by the cord or tonne) Ledwidge 5 OR 3.5 Freeman 4 Heflers 5 (spruce only) Pine Logs/Studs Freeman 6 (5 grades) by mfbm Heflers 6 by tonne Turner 6 by mfbm Lewis Mouldings 6 by mfbm or cord

12 CURRENT PRICES (con t) Hardwood logs Savoie by grade AFT by grade Tie mills Hardwood pulp Scotia Bio Local firewood LP East River Softwood pulp and biomass Northern Pulp, Brooklyn Energy, Scotia Biofuels Speciality Products Poplar veneer Spruce veneer logs Instrument logs Juniper, Hemlock

13 RESPONSIBLE WOODLOT MANAGEMENT It is your land, what do you want and how can we help? Selection Management or Clear Cut? Silviculture treatments? Machine cut or hand cutting? Maximum $$ to landowner now, or long term management for a quality forest? All options are available to the landowners we deal with.

14 Overmature fir. Treatment: Clear cut Product: Studs and Pulp Sugar maple/birch Treatment: Thinning Product: Firewood Old Fir andhardwood Treatment: Softwood cut Product: Studs and Pulp

15 Red spruce regeneration established. Let light in. Harvested by machine. Some areas had no regeneration. Thinned for growth.

16 2014 OUTLOOK MARKETS FOR ALMOST ALL FOREST PRODUCTS ARE STRONG RIGHT NOW CANADIAN DOLLAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS SPRING WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR MOST MILLS DEMAND IS STRONG AS MILLS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO BUILD INVENTORY FOR SPRING DEMAND AND PRICE FOR WOOD PRODUCTS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE SUMMER

17 Thank you Any questions? Stephen B Cole HC Haynes Inc stephen.hchaynes@gmail.com