Forest Fires in Portugal 2005 An economic approach

Transcription

1 Forest Fires in Portugal 2005 An economic approach 1 Content 1 - Objective 2 - Portugal s forest description 3 - Forest fires in Estimation of the forest fire costs 5 - Conclusions 6 - References 2 2

2 1. Objective Forest fires - Education and Fire prevention Fire fighting - + CO 2 sequestration Forest conservation Forest resources + CO 2 emissions - Forest resources lost - Forest recovery costs 3 3 Content 1 - Objective 2 - Portugal s forest description 3 - Forest fires in Estimation of the forest fire costs 5 - Conclusions 6 - References 4 4

3 2. Portugal s forest description [1] Areas by use of soil (10 3 ha) Continental Portugal 5% 2% Forest 38% Scrubland 34% Agriculture 21% Social Areas (unproductive included) Interior Waters Main uses: Forest and agriculture economic wealth produced for the country A great percentage of the soil (59%) are forest and scrubland that are sensitive to fire damage Portugal s forest description [1] Areas by forest sort (10 3 ha) Continental Portugal 1% 6% 1% Forest areas Burnt areas of forest Low cut areas Other wooded areas 92% Main forest sorts: real forest area 6 6

4 2. Portugal s forest description [1] 0.58% 0.45% 3.09% 0.90% 2.68% 3.76% 12.38% 9.42% Distribution of species (10 3 ha) Portugal 22.65% Wild Pine Eucalyptus Cork oak Holm oak Oaks Pine Chestnut tree 20.62% Varied trees Varied resinous 23.48% Other woody formations and varied Young forest Portugal s forest description [1] 100% 90% Predominant species geographical distribution 86% 80% 70% 60% 58% 72% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 27% 9% 5% 1% 19% 40% 22% 17% 21% 2% 1% 2% 4% 2% 8% 0% 4% Pine Eucalyptus Cork oak Holm oak Norte Lisboa and Vale do Tejo Algarve Centro Alentejo Center: Pine (58%) and Eucalyptus (40%) Alentejo: Cork oak (72%) and Holm oak (86%) 8 8

5 2. Portugal s forest description [1] Distribution of burnt species (10 3 ha) 7% Wild Pine Eucalyptus 26% Cork oak Holm oak Oaks Pine Chestnut tree 67% Varied trees Varied resinous Other woody formations and varied 9 9 Content 1 - Objective 2 - Portugal s forest description 3 - Forest fires in Estimation of the forest fire costs 5 - Conclusions 6 - References 10 10

6 3. FOREST FIRES 2005 [2] 3.1. Evolution Burnt Area Evolução Evolution Área Ardida (ha) for (ha) Portugal Portugal Continental There has been, with time, a progressive increase in the burnt area was an exceptional year with almost burnt ha FOREST FIRES 2005 [2] 3.1. Evolution Burnt Area Evolução Evolution Área Ardida (ha) for (ha) Portugal Portugal Continental There has been, with time, a progressive increase in the burnt area was an exceptional year with almost burnt ha

7 3. FOREST FIRES Influence of weather conditions [2] During 2005 almost all the area of Portugal Continental was under extreme forest fire risk. European Forest Fire Risk Information System, for the year 2005 (JRC). Why? Mainly due to severe drought conditions that, already in January to March, induced numerous forest fires FOREST FIRES Influence of weather conditions [2] Burnt area evolution and weather conditions There is a strong relationship between the weather conditions and fire danger, measured by the Daily Severity Rating (DSR). NOTE: DSR - is a numeric rating of the difficulty of controling fires. This index is based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI) which is a general index of fire danger. To calculate such indexes several meteorological factors are taken into account such as: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and 24-hour rainfall

8 3. FOREST FIRES Influence of weather conditions [2] Days and burnt areas by DSR classes In 2005, more than 60% of the year had a DSR of >10. The situation is getting worse: the number of risky days is increasing, as well as the burnt area FOREST FIRES Geographical distribution of burnt areas [2] Burnt areas are more significant in the transition from urban to rural areas, specially in the north and center interior. Occurences mainly in the litoral, near densely populated districts In 2005, 78% of the burnt area occured in areas classified as with high or very high fire risk

9 3. FOREST FIRES Geographical distribution of burnt areas [2] Burnt areas are more significant in the transition from urban to rural areas, specially in the north and center interior. Occurences mainly in the litoral, near densely populated districts In 2005, 78% of the burnt area occured in areas classified as with high or very high fire risk FOREST FIRES Causes of forest fires [2] Negligent causes Forest fires can be caused by: Natural causes Negligent fire use Accidental causes Intentional causes Intentional causes Accidental causes Similar spreading in Spain Causes per regions: Natural causes Negligent fire use Accidental causes Intentional causes 18 18

10 3. FOREST FIRES Forest fires dimension [2] Bigger forest fires Human loss increases Burnt Area (ha) FOREST FIRES Forest fires dimension [2] Significant increase of the number of small forest fires Burnt area caused by small forest fires did not increase, which means higher fire fighters efficiency Number of fires In 2005, fires with more than 100 ha represent 85.1% of the burnt area and respresent less than 1% of the total forest fires

11 3. FOREST FIRES What favors fire fighting? [2] Forest fires combat is favored by: Quick Detection Quick Intervention Forest conservation Fire duration class: > 24 hours hours 9-12 hours 6-9 hours 3-6 hours 0-3 hours Content 1 - Objective 2 - Portugal s forest description 3 - Forest fires in Estimation of the forest fire costs 5 - Conclusions 6 - References 22 22

12 4. ESTIMATION OF FOREST FIRE COSTS [3] Forest fires cost can be determined as: Costs due to future ecosystem restoration activities Estimates of the economic value of the different losses caused by fires How? a) Valuation using market prices analyze transaction prices in the market b) Hedonic methods the product market price is related to its properties or the services it provides c) Trip cost method the time and cost of someone dislocation to a certain area represent the price of acceding to that area d) Contingent valuation method consists in asking directly to people, using surveys, how much they are wiling to pay for a certain environmental asset or service e) Benefits shifting estimate economic values of ecosystems services using information of studies in other locations/contexts ESTIMATION OF FOREST FIRE COSTS 4.1. Forest Products [4,5] Forest products production and revenues in 2005: Resin Production of 32 thousand tons Revenue of 29 M Wood Production of 2.8 M tons Revenue of 539 M Cork Production of 153 thousand tons Revenue of 838 M Paper pulp Production of 1.3 M tons Revenue of 415 M Paper and paperboard Production of 1.3 M tons Revenue of 941 M Furniture Revenue of 175 M CO 2 sequestration 24 24

13 4. ESTIMATION OF FOREST FIRE COSTS 4.1. Forest Products [4] Products Volume (ton) Imports Amount (1000euros) Volume (ton) Exports Amount (1000euros) Resin Wood Cork Paper pulp Paper Furniture Total Balance of trade of Forest Products (2005) Although there is a large volume of exports the value exported is not very high ESTIMATION OF FOREST FIRE COSTS 4.2. Forest Product Losses [6] Damage to wood production Case by case analysis WPD= P C A Volume (1+ r) r m Mortality Where: WPD wood production damage ( ) A burnt area (ha) Volume commercial maturity volume of timber (m 3.ha -1 ) P r roadside price (.m -3 ) C felling and logging costs (.m -3 ) r discount rate m years of rotation time Mortality percentage of dead trees Volume = I a R Where: I a timber annual increment (m 3.ha -1.y -1 ) R -rotation time 26 26

14 4. ESTIMATION OF FOREST FIRE COSTS 4.2. Forest Product Losses [2,4,7] Damage to Forest Products Global analysis Considering forest production and market prices, the estimated losses caused by forest fires in 2005 are: Product Production (tons) price (M ) Pine =157 Eucaliptus =43 Cork Green wood price burnt wood price 60% devaluation Resin Biomass Total loss ESTIMATION OF FOREST FIRE COSTS 4.2. Forest Product Losses [2,4,7,8] Product Estimations for 2005 Production (tons) price (M ) Pine Eucaliptus Cork Resin Biomass Total loss Damage to Forest Products Global analysis Lost value of goods and services generated in burnt areas in 2003 Products Price (M ) Wood products 262 Non woody product 283 Recreational activities 20 Indirect use 85 total 651 Ainda que o total da área ardida deste ano seja inferior ao de 2003 (com quase 430 mil hectares e danos avaliados em 400 milhões de euros), o custo económico será superior, já que a madeira ardida era de melhor qualidade, nomeadamente a nível do pinho e da matéria-prima para as celuloses. [11] 28 28

15 4. ESTIMATION OF FOREST FIRE COSTS 4.3. The price of CO 2 emissions [6,10] Economic value of CO 2 released Global analysis CO = A C 44 P 2 C Mortality 12 Where: CO 2 economic value of CO 2 A burnt area (ha) C carbon emitted by fore (ton.ha -1 ) P C price of one ton of carbon (.ton -1 ) Mortality biomass consumed during biomass burning (assumed 20%) C = Volume wd BEF Where: Volume wood volume of stand when fire occurred (m 3 ) wd weight density of wood (ton.m -3 ) BEF biomass expanding factor c f carbon rate in one unit weight of biomass ( 0.5) c f CO 2 CO 2 Under-estimated biological carbon sequestration: CO M ton / year P(CO 2 )=? ESTIMATION OF FOREST FIRE COSTS 4.3. The price of CO 2 emissions [6,10] Economic value of CO 2 released Considering Global burnt analysis pine tree: CO 2 2 million tons CO = A P(CO C 44 2 ) = 45 P M 2 C Mortality 12 Where: Considering burnt eucaliptus: CO 2 CO economic value thousand of CO 2 tons A burnt area P(CO (ha) 2 ) = 17 M C carbon emitted by fore (ton.ha -1 ) P C Considering price of one ton burnt of carbon cork tree: (.ton -1 ) Mortality biomass consumed during biomass CO burning (assumed thousand tons 20%) P(CO 2 ) = 5 M C = Volume wd BEF Where: Cumulative losses: Volume wood COvolume of stand when fire occurred (m million tons ) wd weight density P(CO of wood (ton.m -3 ) 2 ) = 67 M BEF biomass expanding factor c f carbon rate in one unit weight of biomass ( 0.5) c f CO 2 CO 2 Under-estimated biological carbon sequestration: CO M ton / year P(CO 2 )=? 30 30

16 4. ESTIMATION OF FOREST FIRE COSTS 4.3. The price of CO 2 emissions [6,10] Economic value of CO 2 released Case by case analysis CCD CO d n+ d q 1 q A COa 2 d n d d r q r q q = 2 + Where: CCD environmental damage to absorption of CO 2 A burnt area (ha) CO 2 a economic value of CO 2 stores each year by stand (.ha -1 ) r discount rate d restoration time delay n stand age q r+1 CO ESTIMATION OF FOREST FIRE COSTS 4.4. Other losses [6] Potential lost hunting damage Case by case analysis HD= n (1+ r) 1 A AI Mortality n r (1+ r) Where: HD potential lost hunting damage ( ) A burnt area (ha) AI hunting rights income, cumulated in one year (.ha -1 ) r discount rate n years of lost hunting rights sale Mortality biomass consumed during biomass TD= Tourism and recreational activities Case by case analysis A N n (1+ r) 1 Vt n r (1+ r) t Mortality Where: TD tourism damage ( ) A burnt area (ha) N t mean number of visitors per year in one hectare V t mean value of one visit ( ) r discount rate n years of lost tourism activities in the burnt area Mortality biomass consumed during biomass 32 32

17 4. ESTIMATION OF FOREST FIRE COSTS 4.5. Prevention, Fire fighting and Recovery costs [8] Recovery value for burnt forest in 2003MADRP/MAI Measures Reforestation and improvement Prevention value in 2003 Entity Measures Price (M ) MADRP Fire Fighting value in 2003 Paper industry and private agents Entity Measures Price (M ) MAI/SNBPC Volunteer Firemen Fire fighting (aeroplanes; volunteers and operational costs); subsidies; army Fire fighting operations Price (M ) Paper industry Fire fighting systems 2 Total 63.9 Forest Infrastructures; surveillance; Forest firemen; Education Surveillance; Forest firemen Cleaning and conservation of forests Total Content 1 - Objective 2 - Portugal s forest description 3 - Forest fires in Estimation of the forest fire costs 5 - Conclusions 6 - References 34 34

18 5. Conclusions -24 M Education and Fire prevention CO 2 sequestration Forest fires Fire fighting -64 M Forest conservation Forest resources M Total lost 1092 M CO 2 emissions -89t to -67M M Forest resources lost Forest recovery costs Est M ; off M Conclusions Forest fires lead to great losses to Portuguese environment and economy, affecting the forest products trading, and possibly impairing exports reducing Portuguese competitiveness in the sector. This type of methodologies to account for the impact of forest fires is crucial and should be done more openly. Further measures should be undertaken in order to prevent forest fires: Penalties for absent owners Impose forest conservation Subsidies for certain trees Forest fires responsibility Social awareness for forest natural resources Private support for forest conservation and reforestation 36 36

19 6. Some References [1] Inventário Florestal Nacional, 2005/06 [2] Relatório de 2005 Incêndios Florestais [3] Pere Riera, A economia dos fogos florestais: questões e prática [4] Boletim de Divulgação, Valores Provisórios do Comércio Externo e Produto Florestais de Janeiro a Dezembro de 2005, Direcção Geral de Recursos Naturais [5] Dados do INE [6] Eva Valese et al, Economic estimation of forest fire damage in N-E Italy, Wildfire, 2007 [7] Dados da Associação das Indústrias de Madeira e Mobiliário de Portugal [8] Plano nacional de luta contra os incêndios [9] Aguiar, R. and F.D. Santos (2007). Prospective Model for Greehouse Gas Emissions in Portugal, Version 2.2. Final Report, Volume I: Reference Scenarios (in Portuguese). Project MISP ClimateChange: Mitigation Strategies In Portugal. Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation and Instituto D.Luiz, Lisbon [10] Narayan, C. et al., Potential for CO2 emissions mitigation in Europe through prescribed burning in the context of the Kyoto Protocol, Forest Ecol. Manage. (2007), doi: /j.foreco [11] Acknowledgments Eng. João Verde from Direcção Geral de Recursos Florestais Eng. Rui Almeida from Serviço Nacional de Protecção Civil Federação de Produtores Florestais de Portugal Associação Nacional de Bombeiros Florestais Instituto Nacional de Estatística Instituto Superior de Agronomia Department of Land Use and Agro-forestry Systems of Padua University 38 38

20 Work by: Adela Córdoba Alexandra Marques Márcia Pereira Patrícia Baptista 39