Tiger Conservation in India : perspective and challenges

Transcription

1 Tiger Conservation in India : perspective and challenges

2 Intro Project Tiger Over 50% ( ) of worlds wild Tigers are found in India Out of the 42 source populations identified 18 (43%) are in India These tiger landscapes are shared with over 1.2 billion people Pressure to maintain Economic Growth of GDP = 1.85 Trillion US dollars (2011)

3 Tiger Occupied Landscapes of India Political Area km 2 Forest Area km Sampled Area km 2 Effort km Tiger Occupied Area km Tiger Reserves Area km

4 Can Tiger Population in India Increase?

5 Factors Responsible for Increment of Tigers Tiger Occupancy & Density Models Covariates Coefficient Estimates a SE Ungulate Encounters Ungulate Dung Density NDVI Monsoon NDVI Pre Monsoon Elevation Road density Distance to Protected Area Distance to Night Lights Area of Forest Cover Area of Forest Core Ruggedness of Terrain b1 (Avg. Tiger Sign)

6 Potential Increment

7 Habitat - Absence Below Potential Presence Habitat + Prey - Habitat + Prey Tiger - Habitat + Prey + Tiger - Habitat + Prey + Tiger

8 1 Filling up Tiger Reserves K Current Population

9 Filling Up Protected Areas with Tigers Tiger Reserve r Instantaneous Growth Rate Tiger Density depressed by : 1)Direct Poaching of Tigers 2)Poaching of Prey Kanha 0.21 Corbett 0 Supkhar 0.18 Pench 0.07 Mudumalai 0.21 Tiger Densities Determined by: Female Territories Prey Abundance Smallest Breeding female territories recorded were km 2 Ranthambore Kanha Corbett

10 2 Reintroduction

11 3 Prey

12 Kuno WLS Wild ungulates y = 8E-21e 0.242x R² = Prey Recovery Village relocation. Habitat management. Law enforcement. Ex. Kuno, Kanha, Pench, Madumalai, Nagarhole, Corbett. Translocation Regaining lost species Upgrading protection. Prey Augmentation. Ex. Gaur reintroduction in Bandhavgarh. Augmentation Mass breeding. Sustaining populations. Law enforcement. Ex. Barasingha Breeding Program at Kanha Effective control of poaching through smart patrolling MSTrIPES

13 4 Human Disturbance

14 Village Relocation 7871 families Relocated from 141 villages 37,155 km 2 of Critical/ Core inviolate Areas legally mandated

15 5 Habitat Connectivity for Long-term Persistence

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17 Tiger dynamics

18 Inviolate Area For 20 breeding tigresses km 2 Total Population in the Core Tigers = Male 8 Cubs < 1 Year = Cubs 1-2 Year = Buffer km Year olds = Year olds = Old tigers & Surplus breeding age Tigers = Tot Pop = Tigers

19 Tiger dynamics Minimum population of tigers in breeding age needed for a viable population of ( tigers) which require an inviolate space of square kilometers

20 Source-sink dynamics

21 Causes for tiger decline Degradation of forest status outside Protected Areas / Tiger Reserves owing to: human pressure livestock pressure ecologically unsustainable land uses Fragmentation leading to loss of gene flow from source populations. Tiger deaths due to man-animal conflicts. Tiger deaths due to poaching. Loss of reproduction owing to disturbance on account of heavily used infrastructure like highways, etc. Lack of adequate protection in outside areas. Loss of forest quality in terms of prey biomass. Insurgency / law and order problems.

22 Poaching Several seizures reported More than 13 cases of tiger poaching

23 HABITAT LOSS There has been decline in extent and quality of wildlife habitats because of Encroachments Delayed settlement of rights Fragmentation of habitats. Diversion for development projects

24 MAN-ANIMAL CONFLICT Shrinking wild habitats, corridors and prey base lead to : Straying of wild animals into human habitation Increase in incidents of Human deaths Livestock killing Crop depredation Retaliatory killings

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26 Core Area (Potential Tiger Breeding Landscape) Serves as source of tigers Buffer Area Multiple use Less potential to sustain large population Sink for dispersing individuals or individuals displaced because of old age) Corridors offer different permeability, interspersed with roads, railway lines, less cover etc

27 Core Core Area: Established Tigers Passive Management Buffer Buffer Area: Tiger in Multiple Use Area Chances of Conflict Active Management Corridor Corridors: Areas conducive to tiger movement, some are potentially conducive and other s are less tolerant Chances of encounter between humans and animals or animal signs increase They result in Stray Tigers.

28 Najibabad CORBETT Kalagarh Afzalgarh Amangarh Range

29 Najibabad SONANADI RANGE ± CORBETT KALAGARH RANGE Kalagarh Afzalgarh Amangarh Range

30 Reasons for human-wildlife conflicts in Bijnore District Proximity / linkages with wildlife source areas (tiger reserve, forest) Forests, nullahs, sugarcane crops provide cover to create such connectivity Induced cover dynamics in an ongoing manner due to sugarcane cultivation fosters wildlife presence Presence of cultivation sites adjoining forest patches provide edges

31 Reasons for human-wildlife conflicts in Bijnore District Owing to terai conditions, tree / ground cover is good Interspersion of water, forests, sugarcane fields / crops with wild pigs and wild ungulates lure carnivores Such welfare factors are adjoining forests / human settlements (juxtaposition)

32 MUSTERING PUBLIC SUPPORT Deciding inviolate spaces for wildlife & relocation Co-existence agenda in other areas Landscape approach in such areas & fringe involving people Sectoral integration & mainstreaming wildlife concerns Ecologically sustainable development programmes Providing livelihood options for locals

33 PROBLEM OF INSURGENCY Special approach discussed in NTCA meeting Some seriously affected areas : Manas (Assam) Palamau (Jharkhand) Simlipal (Orissa) Indravati (Chattisgarh) Nagarjuna Sagar (Andhra Pradesh) Valmiki (Bihar)

34 BOTTLE NECKS IN IMPLEMENTATION Ban on recruitment &staff ageing Lack skill development Not posting the right personnel Lack of reciprocal commitment from States on directives Funds released by Center not reaching operational staff in time. Lack of corridors, buffer, unsustainable landuses

35 Issues and challenges in tiger conservation Demand for land : development agenda diversion of forests loss of habitat and connectivity Approach to XII Plan : 9% per annum growth of GDP Several flagship development programmes taken up, while highlighting the need for a balance between development and environmental protection, afforestation of degraded forest land, improving forest cover Demand of body parts and derivatives of tiger, mortality of wild animals due to poaching Degradation of forest status outside Protected Areas/Tiger Reserves owing to human pressure, livestock pressure, and ecologically unsustainable land uses

36 Issues and challenges in tiger conservation Fragmentation leading to loss of gene flow from source populations Mortality of wild animals due to man-animal conflicts Loss of reproduction owing to disturbance on account of heavily used infrastructure like highways, etc. Lack of adequate protection in outside areas Loss of forest quality in terms of prey biomass to support large carnivores like tiger and leopard Insurgency / law and order problems in some tiger reserves / protected areas / forest areas

37 Need for corridor connectivity Scenario 2: Initial population 10 tigers, with no poaching and no corridors connecting the reserve to other large tiger populations. Tiger Population Viability Analysis : Model-3, Scenario-2 If we increase the initial population size, then also the extinction probability is high as 69% indicating that the tiger population is likely to become extinct in next 100 years, but increase in the initial population reduces the risk of extinction marginally by about 20%.

38 Need for corridor connectivity Scenario 4: Initial population 5 tigers, with no poaching but with a corridor connecting the reserve to other large tiger populations due to which one tiger immigrates within the reserve in one year. Tiger Population Viability Analysis : Model-6, Scenario-4 In case of presence of corridors and no poaching the tiger population will not go extinct in next 100 years.

39 Need for corridor connectivity Tiger Population Viability Analysis : Model-7 In this scenario which had a moderate poaching threat, the metapopulation had a extinction probability of 1%, while individual populations faced a risk of 21 % for Achanakmar, 4 % for Kanha and 5% for Pench Tiger reserves over the next 100 years.

40 Geographic area Total forest area Total Protected Area Area under Tiger Reserve Area of potential tiger habitat Area under Tiger occupancy = km2 Current Numbers = 325 Possibility of increase to = 6500 km2 Potential Numbers = 130

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42 Area under Tiger occupancy = km2 Current Numbers = 325 Possibility of increase to = 6500 km2 Potential Numbers = 130 Geographic area Total forest area Total Protected Area Area under Tiger Reserve Area of potential tiger habitat

43 Area under Tiger occupancy = km 2 Current Numbers = 325 Possibility of increase to = 6500 km 2 Potential Numbers = 130 Geographic area Total forest area Total Protected Area Area under Tiger Reserve 8670 Area of potential tiger habitat

44 Current India Occupancy km 2 area with 1700 tigers Short Term Potential India Occupancy Area = km 2 Short term Potential for Tiger No = 694

45 Mitigation strategy for a tiger landscape The tiger landscape needs to be categorised as : Priority 1 areas (P1) Core areas of tiger reserves National parks Wildlife sanctuaries Priority 2 areas (P2) Buffer areas of tiger reserves All forest areas within the identified corridors (Zone of Influence) All non-forest areas within the identified corridors (Zone of Influence) Priority 3 areas (P3) Forest areas outside the corridor Non-forest rural areas with or without habitation outside the corridor Small towns (tiger towns) outside the corridor Priority 4 areas (P4) Existing industrial areas / diverted forest land (within or beyond the identified corridor) Existing non-industrial areas (developed cities within or beyond the identified corridor)

46 Habitat Connectivity : imperative for long term tiger persistence Some basic facts Per capita forest cover in India: 0.06 ha. (global: 0.6 ha.) Forest and tree cover: m ha. (23.81% of geographical area FSI, 2011) Forest cover: 21.05% of geographical area Tree cover: 2.76% of geographical area Annual estimated wood production from forests: m cubic meter (2011) Annual potential wood production from trees outside forests: 42.77% m cubic meter Annual consumption of wood: 48 m cubic meter Total fodder consuming livestock: % Total annual fuel wood consumption: million tonnes (58.75 million tonnes comes from forests)

47 Tiger Conservation and Development Need for green infrastructure: takes into account life support functions of natural ecosystems and their interconnectivity Green infrastructure: interconnected network of clean space to conserve natural ecosystem values Requires prior planning for safeguarding critical tiger habitats and corridors Existing gray developmental infrastructure (transportation, water, power, telecom etc.) require retrofitting measures in buffer and corridor

48 Tiger Conservation and Development Natural Capital, Green Economy, Green Accounting Natural capital : Stock of natural ecosystems providing goods and services (mostly intangible) The natural capital needs to be viewed as capital goods or real capital as understood in economic parlance World s economy : subset of a larger economy of natural ecosystem and services which sustained human beings Hence, natural resources and ecosystems should be recognised and given due value for a sustainable future

49 Tiger Conservation and Development Natural Capital, Green Economy, Green Accounting Indian context : several monographs brought out under a project Green Accounting for Indian States Project sponsored by Green Indian States Trust Valuation of important ecological functions of forest ecosystems has been provided Need for green accounting to factor in the value of present activities which cause future costs highlighted since these are not reflected in current model of national accounts (Sukhdev, 2012) Need for green GDP articulated, reflecting gains in physical capital and any resultant draw down or increase in natural capital Green GDP : represents nations green genuine savings

50 Tiger Conservation and Development Natural Capital, Green Economy, Green Accounting United Nations Division for Sustainable Development 2012: Guide Book on Green Economy GOI : Process on for preparation of Green National Accounts A framework for presenting asset accounts for forests has been described World Development Report (WB) 2009 : Analysis the implications of urbanisation (economic geography) Wild tiger : symbolizes well being of ecosystem their survival and sustenance through corridors and source areas linkage is essential for our well being

51 For the future: addressing the source-sink dynamics Stepping up protection in source areas of prioritized tiger landscapes Fostering a viable population of tiger in such source areas Making the source areas inviolate Addressing man-tiger conflicts in human dominated areas of prioritized landscapes through mainstreaming (landscape level management) Active management (translocation) Safeguards / retrofitting measures in prioritized landscapes Smart green infrastructure Green accounting

52 Thank You