Land Cover and Land Use Change in Amazonia

Transcription

1 Land Cover and Land Use Change in Amazonia LCLUC Science Team Meeting University of Maryland November David Skole Michigan State University

2 Deforestation, regrowth, fragmentation, and degradation in Amazonia: carbon dynamics David Skole Jiagou Qi Walter Chomentowski Eraldo Matricardi Robert Walker Marcellus Caldas Marcos Pedlowski Andrea Silva Yushuang Zhou Mark Cochrane Chris Oliver Bill Salas Pedro Mourao Luis Guilherme Richard Houghton Bill Laurance

3 Objectives Are the inter-annual dynamics and rates of deforestation and abandonment to secondary forest significantly different than the decadal mean values in Amazonia, and can this account for a dampening of the biogenic source of carbon apparent in annual observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide? Through the integration of socioeconomic and satellite data and the development of dynamic deforestation models, can we improve our understanding of the dynamics of deforestation and the various controls on rates of deforestation and regrowth

4 Objectives Research Objective 1: To measure inter-decadal rates of deforestation and regrowth and its spatial pattern at less than 100 m resolution over the whole using Landsat data from Landsat Pathfinder; Research Objective 2: To measure inter-annual rates of deforestation and regrowth for the whole basin using stratified sampling methods with Landsat data between the inter-decadal inventories from Objective 1; Research Objective 3: Amazônia-wide coupling of sociodemographic, agricultural, and econometric data at the municipio level for a suite of specific variables in order to develop land-use change variable sets; Research Objective 4: Establish intensive case studies using multi-temporal (annual) satellite data at specific sites to estimate transition dynamics and transition probabilities for secondary growth turnover in simple LUCC models; Research Objective 5: Conduct field-based case study analyses of the decisionmaking processes for farmers and other land-managers, using key informant surveys and models; Research Objective 6: Couple empirical results and models of LUCC at the basin and site level to biogeochemical models through collaboration with other teams and utilization of an existing terrestrial carbon model.

5 Publications 16 peer review papers in print, in press, or in review: e.g. Science, Nature, Int. J. Remote Sensing, Conservation Biology, Journal of Tropical Ecology

6 Activities Focus has been on documenting and understanding the full suite of land cover disturbances by humans: Deforestation, regeneration, and degradation through selective logging and fire Synergies between forms of disturbance, such as fire and logging, logging and deforestation Spatial attributes, such as fragmentation and changes in size class distribution of clearings And building diagnostic and prognostic models. Use two case studies at field sites (Para and Rondonia) for understanding fine scale issue, and basin-wide analysis for comprehensive perspective

7 Sites for analysis

8 Area Changes at Amazon 1 site Cleared Secondary Vegetation Area of Study Site (%)

9 Rates of change at Amazon Forest to cleared class Forest to Secondary Vegetation Deforestation Rate (ha/yr)

10 Transitions at Amazon Cleared to secondary Secondary to cleared Rate of Change (ha/yr)

11 Survivorship: Life cycle dynamics Persistence (% of cohort) yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 6yr 7yr 8yr 9yr 10yr 11yr 12yr Age of Secondary Vegetation 1990A 1991A 1992A 1993A 1994A 1995A 1996A 1997A 1988R 1989R 1991R 1992R 1995R 1996R 1997R 1987U 1988U 1991U 1992U 1996U 1997U

12 Survivorship of second growth 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 6yr 7yr 8yr

13 Carbon flux over space

14 Carbon flux over time Net Flux Year

15 Basin scale deforestation

16 Basin wide deforestation and regrowth data (

17 High resolution fractional cover assessment 50-60% 80% 60-80% 100% Site 2 Color composite Site 2 Fractional Cover

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20 Evolution of the landscape

21 Synergy between agents

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23 Origin of Logging in % 3% New areas Areas logged in 1992 Origin of Logging in % 16% New logging areas Areas logged in 92 and/or 96

24 Dynamic of Logging 1992 in % 16% Deforested Re- logged Forest 4% Dynamic of Logging 1992 in % 31% 11% Deforested Re- logged Forest Dynamic of Logging 1996 in % 56% 32% Deforested Re-logged Forest

25 State Area (Km2) % Area (Km2) % Area (Km2) % Acre Amapá Amazonas Maranhão , MatoGrosso 2, , , Pará 2, , , Rondonia Roraima Tocantins Total 5, , ,

26 Continuous fields for detection of logging Site 2 Color composite Site 2 Fractional Cover

27 Fractional Coverage of Logged Forest Green fractional (%) / / / / / / / / / /068 path/row Max Min Mean Fractional Coverage of Non-logged Forest Green fractional (%) / / / / / / / / / /068 path/row Max Min Mean

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30 ETM+ IKONOS

31 ETM+ IKONOS

32 IKONOS

33 Validation of advanced products IKONOS fc Map ETM+ fc Map

34 Validation -- Statistical Analysis Fractional Cover (IKONOS-ETM) ETM FC y = x R 2 = IKONOS FC Full Density Range

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37 The basic idea Regrowth Reclear Forest Deforest Deforestation 2ReGrowth nd Abandon regrowth rate2 Regrowth2 Def orest Regrowth1 FOREST DEFORESTED SECONDGROWTH total abandonment total reclearance

38 Def orest agro dev elopment road logging f ire mining

39 Actual Agro Land Expected Demand Agro-Land Change Land Discrepanc y Desired Inventory Agro Land Needed Cobb- Douglas Function Agro Supply Inventory Adjustme nt Agro Inventory Expectati on Change Agro Demand Agro Labor Population Demand Expansio n Figure 7: Dynamic agricultural economic growth processes (demand expansion, inventory correction and expectation adjustment) and agricultural land demand through a Cobb-Douglas Production Function

40 Expectation Change EXPECTED DEMAND clearance rate inv entory cov erage desired inv entory f ractional adjustment auto abandon rate new clearance Clearance reclearance f ractional correction inv entory correction inv entory discrepancy Auto Abandonment AGROLAND land discrepancy Agro Supply INVENTORY Agro Demand In Abandonment land input income induced demand in demand ex demand agro labor marginal consumption auto demand urban demand export rural population auto spending rate urban population

41 birth rate 1529 Death15Below surv iv rate 1529 birth 1529 death rate 15below surv iv 1529 Death1529 death rate1529 surv iv 1529 Birth AGE15BELOW Grow15Below AGE1529 Grow1529 Death3044 death rate 3044 surv iv 3044 surv iv 4559 Migration1 Migration2 AGE3044 Grow3044 birth3044 birth rate 3044 surv iv rate 3044 Migration3 surv iv 3044 AGE15BELOW total population population AGE1529 AGE3044 AGE4559 birth4559 birth rate 4559 surv iv 4559 Grow4559 Death4559 death rate 4559 surv iv rate 4559 AGE75UP AGE6074 AGE4559 AGE6074 Death6074 DeathRate75Up Death75up AGE75UP Grow6074 death rate 6074

42 80,000 70,000 Agro Land (1000 ha) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Year Rice Sugar Cane Beans Manioc Corn Soybeans Banana Cacau Coffee Black Pepper Cattle

43 12,000 10,000 Agro Land (1000 ha) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Year Rice Sugar Cane Beans Manioc Corn Soybeans Banana Cacau Coffee Black Pepper Cattle

44 Model Brazilian Amazon (1990) State of Rondonia (1990) Data Model Data s E% Rice 2, , Sugarcane 4, , Beans Manioc Corn 1, , Soybeans 1, , Banana Cacau Coffee Black Pepper Cattle 12, , , TOTAL 23, , , ,

45 1: 2: 3: 1: FOREST 2: DEFORESTED 3: SECONDGROWTH 4.00e e e : 2: 3: 3.00e e e : 2: 3: e e Land Cov er (Untitled) Time 6:35 PM Sat, Sep 01, 2001

46 Remote Sensing 1,000,000 ha Model Estimate Deforest 1999 Deforest 1992 Regrow th 1999 Regrow th

47 @ Michigan State University

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