Narration: In this presentation you will learn about the basic concepts of carbon accounting and the

Transcription

1 1

2 Narration: In this presentation you will learn about the basic concepts of carbon accounting and the different methods used in it. You will learn the general concepts, elements and approaches of carbon accounting, as well as cost-accuracy tradeoffs. 2

3 Narration: The presentation is divided into five sections. 3

4 Narration: Primary production is the rate at which energy is stored by green plants in the form of organic substances that may be used as food materials. Primary production has two processes: Gross Primary Production and Net Primary Production. Gross Primary Production is the result of photosynthesis in the leaves and needles, or foliage, of the tree crown. When a tree grows and produces more and more foliage, the Gross Primary Production also increases until it reaches it s maximum level. Respiration is the process by which the tree uses the energy captured during photosynthesis to maintain growth and other basic functions of the tree. As the tree grows, respiration increases proportionally to the amount of biomass the tree produces. Net Primary Production is the difference between the Gross Primary Production and respiration. It increases rapidly and reaches the maximum at the time of maximum growth of the tree. After that, it starts to decrease. Net Primary Production is the surplus of energy available for maintaining the basic functions and tree growth. When the Net Primary Production declines to zero, the tree dies. 4

5 Narration: The carbon balance of a forest consists of the carbon pool (sometimes called carbon stock) and the carbon flux. It is very important to distinguish these two concepts and to understand the fundamental difference between them. Carbon pool refers to a system that has the capacity to accumulate or release carbon. Examples of carbon pools are forest biomass, wood products, soils, and the atmosphere. Carbon flux is the transfer of carbon from one carbon pool to another. Carbon pool is the total accumulated carbon in a forest in a particular moment in time. It is expressed as megagramsof carbon per hectare. One megagramequals one metric ton, or 1000 kilograms. We can also talk about the carbon pool of the entire forest or about the carbon pool of different forest components, such as the carbon pool in the soil or in the above-ground tree biomass. The forest carbon pool increases when the forest gets older and stabilisesat the level characteristic to the forest type and it s growing conditions. It is at its maximum level in old forests that have been in stable conditions for long periods of time without any major disturbance. Carbon flux is the rate of flux (in or out) of carbon between the forest and the atmosphere. It is expressed as megagramsof carbon per hectare per year. In a growing forest, it is the rate of intake of carbon from the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide through photosynthesis. That s why it s called as carbon sequestration. Carbon flux reaches it s maximum at the age of maximum growth of the forest, i.e. in a rather young age. It starts the decrease when the forests (trees) are getting older. 5

6 Narration: Carbon accounting is a general term to describe the measuring, reporting and verifying process used to determine the amount of CO 2 that is sequestered, or the amount of carbon that is released into the atmosphere, through various activities, such as forest management or tree planting. Carbon accounting is the cornerstone of the book-keeping of forest carbon stocks. It plays a key role in national carbon management schemes and in carbon trading. Any emission trading transaction needs to be accompanied by an adequate carbon accounting system to verify that the carbon benefits traded really do exist in the project location. Carbon accounting is the cornerstone of the book-keeping of forest carbon stocks. It plays a key role in national carbon management schemes, such as the national reporting of emissions and sinks under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and in carbon trading. Any emission trading transaction, whether in compliance or voluntary markets, needs to be accompanied by an adequate carbon accounting system to verify that the carbon benefits traded really exist in the project location. 6

7 Narration: Carbon flux is the rate of exchange of carbon between two carbon pools, such as the atmosphere and a forest. If the forest carbon pools increases it s often called carbon sequestration. This is the case in a healthy, growing forest, where the uptake of carbon from the atmosphere increases the forest carbon pool. If the atmospheric carbon pools increases it s called carbon emission. This happens during forest fires, when the carbon stored in the forest is released to the atmosphere, or in forest conversion, where forests are cut down and converted to other land uses. 7

8 Narration: Any carbon accounting system must measure and monitor two variables: the area of forest and the changes in the area due to deforestation or afforestation; and the carbon stock density and the changes in it due to degradation, reforestation, and forest management. Measuring and monitoring of these two variables are carried out with a combination of remote sensing, or satellite imagery, and ground measurements such as taking forest inventory. 8

9 Narration: It is difficult to find just one definition of a forest. In nature there is a continuum of woody vegetation, from open woody vegetation on the left, to closed woody vegetation on the right. Where the forest starts and open woody vegetation, or savanna, ends is an arbitrary definition. This is illustrated with red lines in the graph. 9

10 Narration: The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations defines a forest as having a minimum area of land of half a hectare, a minimum canopy cover of 10 per cent, and a minimum tree height of 5 metres. 10

11 Narration: In the afforestationand reforestation activities under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol, the forest is defined by the host country, that is, the country hosting the activity), and the values of the three parameters can vary between the agreed limits. 11

12 Narration: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change uses the following definitions: Forest land includes all land with woody vegetation consistent [with thresholds] used to define forest land in the national GHG inventory, sub-divided at the national level into managed and unmanaged and also by ecosystem type as specified in the IPCC Guidelines. Non-forest land. This category includes all land areas that do not fall into any of forest land. Deforestation. The direct human-induced conversion of forested land to non-forested land Forest degradation.a direct human-induced long-term loss (persisting for X years or more) of at least Y per cent of forest carbon stocks [and forest values] since time T and not qualifying as deforestation or an elected activity under Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol. Forest management.a system of practices for stewardship and use of forest land aimed at fulfilling relevant ecological (including biological diversity), economic and social functions of the forest in a sustainable manner. 12

13 Narration: The CDM defines afforestationas the direct, human-induced conversion of land that has not been forested for a period of at least 50 years to forested land through planting, seeding or the human-induced promotion of natural seed sources. Reforestation is defined as direct human-induced conversion of non-forested land to forested land through planting, seeding or the human-induced promotion of natural seed sources, on land that was forested but that has been converted to non-forested land. For the first commitment period, reforestation activities will be limited to reforestation occurring on those lands that did not contain forest on 31 December

14 Narration:What is the difference between deforestation and forest degradation? Answer the question: Is there a land-use change? If the answer is yes, forest has been converted into other use such as agriculture, this is deforestation If the answer is no, we have to ask: is there a loss of carbon in the forest remaining as forest? If the answer is yes, the forest has been burned or logged, this is forest degradation. As you see, the term degradation refers only to changes in the forest carbon as an indicator of degradation. It does not take into account other factors, such as biodiversity. 14

15 Narration: The IPCC describes five carbon pools for measuring and monitoring purposes: aboveground biomass, which includes trees and other growing plants; dead wood; plant litter; belowground biomass; and soil carbon From the IPCC GPG (2003) = Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry The document: Penman, J., Gytarsky, M., Hiraishi, T., Krug, T., Kruger, D., Pipatti, R., Buendia, L., Miwa, K., Ngara, T., Tanabe, K. and Wagner, F Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry. IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programmeand Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Kanagawa, Japan. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available at: 15

16 Narration: This is an example from the IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (2003) document. It lists the five carbon pools and recommends methodological approaches for measuring an monitoring them in different project types. Take a few minutes to study it. For instance, for afforestation and reforestation projects: 1a. Above-ground tree biomass should be measured use the method described in chapter b. Above-ground non-tree biomass maybe measured (nor necessarily) use the method described in chapter Below-ground biomass - should be measured use the method described in chapter Litter - maybe measured (nor necessarily) use the method described in chapter Dead wood - maybe measured (nor necessarily) use the method described in chapter Soil carbon - maybe measured (nor necessarily) use the method described in chapter

17 Narration: Carbon accounting, the measuring and monitoring of carbon pools, can be executed at different levels depending on the scope. National-level carbon accounting is currently implemented by Annex 1 countries that are signatories to the Kyoto protocol. It also envisaged for the REDD schemes in the post 2012 climate agreement. Project-level carbon accounting is typical in the afforestationand reforestation project of the CDM mechanism and in project in the voluntary carbon markets. The nested approach is a proposal to combine national- and project-level accounting to be implemented in the REDD schemes in the post climate agreement. 17

18 Narration: The two main approaches for monitoring forest areas and changes in them are wall-towall mapping and sampling. In wall-to-wall mapping, the land use and land-use changes are mapped in entire area, such as a country or project, and the changes in forest area is obtained by studying maps created at different times. In sampling, the area is sampled either systematically or by using stratified sampling, and the forest area and changes in it are obtained by studying maps created at different times. 18

19 Narration: Here are two examples of the fate of different carbon pools. In an agroforestry plantation: The stock in living trees increases with tree growth and decreases with timber harvest The decreased tree carbon stock can result in increased wood products The soil carbon pool increases over time, particularly if the agroforestryplantation is established in degraded lands Following deforestation: The stock in living trees decreases The decreased tree carbon stock can result in more dead wood, more wood products or immediate emissions Dead wood stocks may be allowed to decompose over time or may, after a given period, be burned leading to further emissions Wood products over time decompose, burned, or are retired to land fill Trees can be replaced by non-tree vegetation such as grasses or crops. In this case, the new land-use has consistently lower plant biomass and often lower soil carbon, particularly when converted to annual crops 19

20 Narration: Detecting the difference in the carbon pool measured twice (at time 1 and at time 2) depends on two factors: the standard deviation of the mean and the length of the time interval between time 1 and time 2. The objective is to estimate the number of plots needed to establish the minimum change in the mean carbon stocks, with 95 percent confidence, that has taken place from one monitoring event to the next, rather than to estimate the number of plots needed to establish that the two means are significantly different from each other. For the RME approach, the monitoring results from plots are pooled to derive a mean for the sample population at Time 1 and Time 2. Change in soil carbon is estimated by subtracting the maximum estimate of the population mean at Time 1 (mean at Time 1 plus half the 95 percent confidence interval at Time 1) from the minimum mean estimate at Time 2 (mean at Time 2 minus half the 95 percent confidence interval at Time 2). The resulting difference represents, with 95 percent confidence, the minimum reliable change in mean soil carbon from Time 1 to Time 2 (Penman et al ). 20

21 Narration: This graph shows an example of the relationship between the number of plots and the precision level. The precision level here is the percentage of total carbon stock in living and dead biomass, with 95 per cent confidence, for all strata combined, for a complex tropical forest in the Noel Kempff Pilot Project in Bolivia. The project encompassed six strata and 625 plots were actually installed. Attaining a higher precision level requires more field measurement plots. 21

22 Narration: This graph depicts the total monitoring cost of the hectare Noel Kempffforest carbon project in Bolivia. The cost of monitoring forest carbon pools is strongly dependant on the precision level required. The fixed costs of establishing and maintaining monitoring systems are high in the tropics. 22

23 Narration: A forest carbon accounting system requires one method for measuring and monitoring the baseline or reference level and one method for monitoring changes in the forest carbon pools resulting from project activities. Baseline methodology consists of a method for defining the project boundaries; a method for measuring the additionalityof the project activity; a method for measuring and monitoring the baseline of net greenhouse gas removals by sinks; and a method for estimating leakage, risks, and uncertainties related to the project. Monitoring methodology consists of methods and protocols for measuring and monitoring changes in forest carbon pools resulting from project activities; a protocol for quality assurance and control; and a method for monitoring actual net greenhouse gas removals by sinks. 23

24 Narration: The Kyoto Protocol requires that the benefits of emission reductions are real, verifiable, and long-term. In addition, the emission reductions have to be additional and certified. In order to achieve these, the project developers must be able to provide information on various aspects listed in the graph. In order to verity that the emission reductions are real, the project developer has to have a credible monitoring system that takes into consideration risks and uncertainties related to the project and leakage that may result from the project activities. In order to have a verifiable system, an adequate measuring and monitoring plan is required. In order to secure long-term emissions reductions, the project has to develop methods to ensure permanence of the carbon sinks. To make sure that the emission reduction are additional, a credible baseline, or reference level, methodology is required. In many situations, particularly in carbon markets, the emission reductions have to be certified by an independent certifier. 24

25 Narration: The IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, published in 2003, describes all the approved methods that can be used for carbon accounting of forestrelated activities. 25

26 Narration: Additionality aims to answer the question What would happen without the project activity? For carbon benefits and climate change impacts, the question is: How much carbon is being sequestered as a direct result of the project activity? The definition of additionalityas agreed upon at the Ninth Conference of the Parties in Milan in 2003 is: The proposed project activity under the CDM is additional if the actual net greenhouse gas removals by sinks is increased above the sum of the changes in carbon stocks in the carbon pools within the project boundary that would have occurred in the absence of the registered CDM project activity. For policies and programmesthe question is: What would happen without the project? In other words, what are the existing plans, programmesand policies? Why do we need CDM or REDD to make this to happen? For investments, the questions are: what is the actual financing available? Why do we need additional funding? Is the funding coming from traditional development assistance or is this new and additional funding? 26

27 Narration: Here is an example of the additionalityin terms of emission reductions. The blue curve is the baseline of emissions, or the projection of emissions in the baseline, business-as-usual scenario. In other words, the blue line is the projection of emissions without the project activity. The red curve is the projection of emissions in the project scenario, or the projection of emissions in the presence of the project activity. The project additionality is the difference between the two lines. 27

28 Narration: Here is an example of additonalityin two scenarios of a reforestation project in abandoned pasture lands. In scenario 1, we assume that the carbon content of the pasture remains the same in baseline 1. If this is the case, the additionalityis the difference between baseline 1 and reforestation. In scenario 2, we assume that the carbon content in the abandoned pasture increases as a result of baseline 2. If this is the case, the additionalityis the difference between the Baseline 2 and Reforestation. 28

29 Narration: The project baseline aims to answer the question What would happen without the project? It is the scenario of anthropogenic emissions by sources or anthropogenic removals by sinks of greenhouse gases that would occur without the proposed project. In other words, it is the sum of the changes in carbon stocks in the carbon pools within the project boundary that would have occurred without the CDM or REDD project. 29

30 Narration: For REDD, the baseline is the projection of emissions from deforestation in the absence of REDD projects. The credits from the RDDD scheme are defined as the difference between the crediting baseline and real emission reductions. 30

31 Narration: To illustrate the baseline, or reference level, for REDD, this graph presents the changes in forest carbon pools in a Ha forest area in Chiapas, Mexico. The measured historical data on forest cover and deforestation is available for the period of 1974 to Mean annual deforestation rate during this period is 1.6 per cent a year. The graph presents three projected baselines from 1996 to 2045 based on low, mean, and high deforestation pathways. 31

32 Narration: In this graph you can see land-use in Purépecha region, Michoacán state in Mexico for 1993 and Forest areas are marked in grey and non-forest areas are marked in blue. 32

33 Narration: Here you can see different land-uses in the same area as the previous slide, in Purépecha region, Michoacán state in Mexico for 1993 and You can see, for example, that in 1993, oak forest covered an area of 11,988,000 hectares, and in 2000, it covered just 9,609,000 hectares. The area from the original oak forest remaining as oak forest was only 5,470,000 hectares. The area of fruit crops in 1993 was 28,149,000 hectares. It rapidly increased to 51,413,000 hectares in

34 Narration: Here you can see the projected deforestation in Purépecha region, Michoacán State in Mexico from 2000 to The deforested areas are marked in red. 34

35 Narration: For any carbon accounting system, there are several risks and uncertainties that have to be taken into account when designing a measuring and monitoring system. Risks include potential loss of carbon due to unexpected natural or human-induced disturbances. These disturbances include forest fires, hurricanes, earthquakes, and flooding and unexpected landuse change. Uncertainties are related to the measuring and monitoring system itself, such as measurement errors and errors related to the construction of the baseline scenario. One way to handle the risks is to use a discounting in the carbon accounting. For uncertainties, the solution is to develop better methods for measuring and monitoring and for baselines. 35

36 Narration: Leakage, or displacement of emissions, occurs when the implementation of project activities in one place lead to an increase of emissions in another adjacent area. An example of this is a situation where we observe increased deforestation outside the province X caused by relocation of human settlements due to REDD activity in the province Y. Methods for estimating leakage include discounting, mainly applicable for project activities. In REDD schemes, if national level accounting is used for carbon accounting, it eliminates the national leakage by definition. 36

37 37

38

39 39