The State of Forestry in Minnesota (MN SAF Webinar)

Transcription

1 The State of Forestry in Minnesota (MN SAF Webinar) Alan R. Ek Department of Forest Resources College of Food, Agricultural and Natural Resource Sciences University of Minnesota October 21, 2014; Cloquet, MN 1

2 Trail Map History of forests and forestry Forest management today Strategies for the future Minnesota s forests, as well as forest based products, markets, industry and associated technologies, are continually changing. Here we take a look back (way back), then to the present, then beyond to possible future forest conditions and tradeoffs for society. 2

3 MN Forestland: 17.3 million acres Timberland: 15.6 million acres 3

4 History of Forests and Forestry 14,000 ybp The early forest Pike s exploration Early settlement 1840+; beginning of land survey 1865 to 1920s exploitation and clearing for agriculture s regrowth and application of silviculture; recognizing the wall of wood, postwar demand. 1970s to 1990s advancement of environmental concerns 1990s GEIS update projections of impacts and futures for forest conditions, production and habitat Industry expansion yet decline in federal harvest 4

5 More Harvest and utilization trends Minnesota by the numbers approximately 3 million cords/year including firewood 1990s-approached 4 million cords/year by end of decade million cords new technologies in the woods and mills; increased mechanization and utilization percent of the timber harvested (2% increase per decade) new products, processes, markets, more species utilized nano materials, biorefinery products (e.g., plastics, fuels), cellulosic fibers and engineered wood products (e.g., cross laminated timbers) Timber increasingly viewed as a green material 5

6 More What about the forest? Age Class distribution Forest type acreage change Managing the age class distribution Mortality rates and causes Growth rates 6

7 MN Timberland Age Class Distribution ,000,000 5,000,000 Acres 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000, ,000, Stand Age 20-year Classes 7

8 Forest Type acreage changes, Forest Type Total 13,635,854 14,724,416 14,500,629 15,264,918 15,648,399 Jack pine 447, , , , ,595 Red pine 243, , , , ,075 Eastern white pine 74,671 63, , , ,089 Balsam fir 820, , , , ,008 White spruce 62, ,118 92, , ,231 Black spruce 1,036,967 1,321,900 1,334,305 1,324,497 1,332,667 Tamarack 491, , , ,853 1,046,952 Northern white-cedar 546, , , , ,451 Eastern redcedar 4,971 13,886 22,080 Other softwoods 3,800 6,000 3,086 8,235 9,588 Oak 928,561 1,166,614 1,267,688 1,384,489 1,434,790 Northern hardwoods 1,205,737 1,392,990 1,321,581 1,429,404 1,506,163 Lowland hardwoods 1,006,780 1,290,461 1,054,197 1,252,396 1,386,330 Cottonwood / Willow 72, ,988 77,006 Aspen 5,157,699 5,058,058 4,651,519 4,633,991 4,670,400 Birch 997, , , , ,486 Balsam poplar 554, , , , ,017 Non stocked 58, , , , ,152 Other 316, , ,320 8

9 Changing age class distributions Stand Age 20 yr classes (0 to 500+) Forest Type Total 2,427,935 2,922,418 4,787,651 2,106, , , ,702 12,299 Jack pine 57, , ,628 60,249 7,200 2, Red pine 63,195 44,007 47,331 58,390 24,497 6, Eastern white pine 2,800 1,300 12,310 21,200 29,763 7, Balsam fir 147, , ,845 86,594 15,199 2, White spruce 22,357 12,598 20,097 5,599 1,200 1, Black spruce 168, , , ,380 91,291 16,098 9,699 1,400 Tamarack 100, , ,316 70,145 51,405 36,799 20,599 1,200 Nwhite-cedar 20,631 39,997 85, , ,171 81,092 68,305 9,700 Oak 50,401 92, , , ,124 51,004 7,700 - N hardwoods 80, , , , ,075 54,439 17,401 - L hardwoods 152, , , , ,198 29,997 18,998 - Aspen 1,235,596 1,366,507 2,004, ,676 96,195 4,000 5,999 - Birch 105, , , ,272 42,800 6, Balsam poplar 162, , ,717 44,229 15,

10 Changing age class distributions Stand Age 20 yr classes (0 to 500+) Forest Type Total 2,867,617 2,606,600 3,296,957 3,721,652 1,971, , ,307 82,520 68,953 Jack pine 30,246 84,801 63,738 26,641 28,546 2,940 3, Red pine 124, , ,277 98,745 57,243 25,556 4,006 2,940 - Eastern white pine 17,102 14,279 27,746 44,817 17,100 16,774 12, Balsam fir 52,238 85, , ,181 27,247 6,680 2, ,259 White spruce 18,472 62,500 40,270 9,377 3,278 2, Black spruce 71, , , , ,446 98,944 94,428 15,703 3,750 Tamarack 96, , , , ,356 68,361 54,907 10,458 12,123 N white-cedar 2,003 13,614 32,250 97, , ,206 91,853 43, Oak 107,174 57, , , , ,277 28, N hardwoods 122, , , , ,224 71,922 8, Lowland hardwoods 95, , , , ,453 98,593 49,498 6,283 - Aspen 1,498,743 1,299,657 1,017, , ,143 12,270 2, Birch 119,072 87, , , ,444 10,670 12,590-1,460 Balsam poplar 118, , ,433 66,292 13,860 4, Note: Accumulation of older forest, slower overall growth rate compared to

11 Timberland Mortality, 1999 to 2013 Average annual mortality of trees on timberland in MN from was approximately 4 million cords The identifiable, primary causes of tree mortality: -weather (23 %) -disease (17 %) -insects (6 %) -animals (3 %) -fire (<1 %) -human-caused damage (<1%) -and other vegetation (<1%) -none reported (approximately 50%) 11

12 2000+ Forest Management Today softer silviculture, focus on diversity, reduced investment in practices that promote productivity reduced site preparation, planting, weed control slightly more emphasis on TSI, thinning, etc. (10-12% of harvest) increasing acreage of older forest health & productivity concerns diminished timber & wildlife habitat values increased mortality and fire fuel loads challenges of deer, climate change & invasive species focus on diversity and strategies for resilience 12

13 More Economic and operational challenges for government & industry investment forest management capability tied to logging infrastructure & vice versa infrastructure has become highly constrained by short winter season; need greater emphasis on summer harvesting NIPF have been slow to return to the market (since 2009) MN environmental review process uncertain and hinders new investment increasingly risk adverse behavior of natural resources personnel with greening of government; decision making today also has increased involvement by diverse parties government agencies are disinclined to consider economic implications of forest management and harvesting, i.e., tradeoff analysis. 13

14 Consider Timber Supply Current harvest levels (estimated 2.4 to 2.7 million cords in 2013) are significantly below available volume of wood: Potential (5.5 million) assuming current management investments. What if investment increases? 14

15 Strategies for the Future Manage the age class distribution Focus on the most economic age classes first (They pay for the rest) Plan for capturing older age classes before they are lost Reduce rotation ages (say between economic and MAI volume) Invest in silviculture that fosters growth, quality, health, diversity (in its many forms) and resilience More emphasis on site preparation, planting, weed control More emphasis on rapid early growth and browsing avoidance More emphasis on early thinning and capturing mortality. More emphasis on timber & wildlife habitat values Reduce fuel levels 15

16 More More summer disturbance to aid pine regeneration, enhance diversity and strengthen the logging infrastructure 16

17 Timberland by forest type and physiographic class. FIA Physiographic Class and Percent of DNR Forest Type Area Forest Type MnDNR Total Combined Xeric Flatwoods Rolling Uplands Other Mesic Swamps/ Bogs Other Hydric Total Jack pine Red pine Eastern white pine Balsam fir White spruce Black spruce Tamarack Northern white-cedar Eastern redcedar Other softwoods Oak Northern hardwoods Lowland hardwoods Cottonwood / Willow Aspen Birch Balsam poplar Non stocked Other Most types occur largely on 1-2 physiographic classes, 70% flatwoods or upland 17

18 Wildlife Habitat on Timberlands WHINGS (Wildlife Habitat Indicator for Native Genera and Species) Is based on models in the GEIS and was applied to the MN FIA data WHINGS uses percent changes in Habitat Suitability Indices (HSI) to quantify trends in habitat quality/abundance, where HSI ranges from 0 (non-habitat) to 1 (abundant, optimal habitat). Species that increased generally preferred forest types in the seedling/sapling stand size class; those that decreased preferred forest types in the poletimber/sawtimber size classes. This is consistent with FIA data that shows an increase in the percentage of the small size class, even though the timberland is aging. Other changes in HSI values were due to shifts in the unique habitat requirements of specific species (fox squirrel, gray squirrel, pickerel frog, and eastern hognose snake). Note the HSI models have limitations. 18

19 HSI Value Changes for MN Timberland Summary Group Species with Absolute Change 40% Large Mammals (in addition to black bear above) Grouse TESC (in addition to bells vireo and moose above) Common Name Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) %Ch Wilson's Warbler % Fox Squirrel % Gray Squirrel % Lincolns Sparrow % Pickerel Frog % Rufous-sided Towhee % Bells Vireo % Yellow-breasted Chat % Least Chipmunk % Black Bear % Eastern Hognose Snake % Moose % White-tailed Deer % Gray Wolf % Ruffed Grouse % Spruce Grouse % Acadian Flycatcher % Boreal Owl % Cerulean Warbler % Hooded Warbler % Loggerhead Shrike % Louisiana Waterthrush % Lynx % Northern Goshawk % Red-Shouldered Hawk % Timber Rattlesnake % 19

20 Simple Harvesting Math for Your Timberlands GEIS 4 million cord harvest level for 14.8 million acres 0.27 cords per acre What is your acreage producing? E.g. 100,000 acres x 0.27 = 27,000 cords Increased harvest carry benefits in terms of direct and indirect jobs, tax revenue, program revenues and further opportunities for investment. 20

21 Addressing forest change through management Efforts to reduce human impact have led to Smaller openings More residuals Reduced site disturbance Diminished regeneration More old forest Reduced timber values Reduced habitat values Strategies for Growth Efforts to enhance health and productivity can lead to Small to large openings Increased site preparation Improved plant resources Reduced browsing losses Shorter rotations Increased timber values Improved habitat values 21

22 Benefits of rotation ages Shorter rotations with management favor economic returns, maximum carbon storage, light demanding species, understory growth, flexibility adaptation Longer rotations reduce revenue, favor older forests, shade tolerant species, less carbon storage, reduced adaptation For wildlife habitat it depends 22

23 Where are you (and your lands) in this mix of possibilities? 23

24 The End Questions? 24