A reprint of The Economist s special report on climate change brought to you, with permission, by

Transcription

1 A reprint of The Economist s special report on climate change brought to you, with permission, by

2 Dear Reader, I am pleased to provide you with this reprint of The Economist s special report on climate change. The report was originally published in the November 28th 2015 edition of The Economist newspaper. At The Nature Conservancy, we hope to see governments come together in Paris to reach a new international agreement that will result in significant emissions reductions an agreement that delivers transparency, accountability and a process for countries to ratchet up their commitments over time. For more than 60 years, The Nature Conservancy has relied on sound science, collaboration and innovation to tackle the biggest challenges facing nature and people. Science tells us climate change is an immediate risk to our communities, economies and conservation mission. That s why we are redoubling our efforts to catalyze the policies, practices and partnerships that will lead to a prosperous, low-carbon future. Investing in nature can provide powerful solutions for climate mitigation and adaptation. The Nature Conservancy s research suggests better management of forests, grasslands, wetlands and agricultural systems can mitigate at least 20% of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Healthy reefs, mangroves and marshes can cost-effectively reduce risks from climate-related storms and floods. And nature-based solutions can help us better manage scarce water supplies and make our cities healthier and more resilient. Many of the ideas, tools and resources we need to tackle the climate challenge already exist. But to affect change at the scale required, leadership will be key. The world needs more bold leaders to step up and make courageous decisions if we re going to stabilize our climate. It s a long road ahead, but I m optimistic that the kind of leadership we have already seen this year and that I hope we will see here in Paris will help us break the climate change logjam. I hope you find The Economist s report informative. To learn more about The Nature Conservancy s work on these issues, please visit global.nature.org. Sincerely yours, Mark R. Tercek President and CEO The Nature Conservancy 2

3 CONTENTS The science of climate change Supermodels Public opinion Groupthink Energy When the wind blows China Seeing daylight Adaptation If you can t stand the heat Biodiversity A modern ark Geoengineering If all else fails 17 The way forward Second-best solutions 3

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10 ADVERTISEMENT Nature holds a powerful solution Emerald Edge coastal rainforest, North America Bryan Evans Tapping nature s value as a climate change solution requires new approaches to development As world leaders gather for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP) 21, they carry hopes of a worldwide agreement to minimize climate change. How the world uses and produces energy has been the headline story but it is clear that lowcarbon land-use strategies also have a significant role to play in the portfolio of climate action. Natural systems have been stabilizing the climate for millions of years, with forests, grasslands and wetlands able to absorb and store enormous amounts of carbon. Latest research indicates that over and above that, we can mitigate at least 20% of human greenhouse gas emissions by protecting, restoring and improving how we manage these systems. In fact, it is no longer feasible to limit global warning to 2 Celsius without changing how we develop and conserve land. Prior to COP, more than 150 countries have published voluntary plans for reducing emissions. Almost all reference land sectors, but few contain specifics or the scale required for land to reach its full mitigation and adaptation potential. These natural climate solutions are available today, providing a biological bridge while longer-term technological solutions are phased in. The solutions Sponsored by

11 cut across ecosystems and land management types, such as highly productive farms, pristine wild lands, and community-managed forests. They provide climate mitigation and resilience, and contribute towards sustainable food production, rural employment, biodiversity protection, water security and community livelihoods. Our lands remain under intense pressure, driven by population growth and increasing demand for food, fuel and fibre. According to The Nature Conservancy s new Global Development Risk Assessment, 20% of the world s remaining natural lands could be developed by the middle of this century. How and where this is done will have real significance. An added complication is that ecosystems are not stable: the US Forest Service has found that forests in America could tip from being a net sink to a net source of CO2 this century unless there is better management and protection. Managing ecosystems to help mitigate and adapt to climate change requires a new approach to development. Recent years have seen more commitments to reduce deforestation and land-use emissions, but obstacles such as lack of political will, poor governance structures and trade-offs between shorter and longterm costs and benefits, complicate implementation. Governments, companies, and landowners Carbon monitoring in Indonesia Bridget Besaw Soy harvesting in Brazil The Nature Conservancy (Erik Lopes) ADVERTISEMENT must trade single-outcome decision-making for more fully-informed planning across entire landscapes and longer time horizons, said Justin Adams, Global Managing Director, Lands, at The Nature Conservancy. We have to move beyond the polarizing development versus environment debate. New business models, like restoring degraded land to production or reduced-impact logging, can contribute to economic, social and environmental goals. The Nature Conservancy is working with communities, governments, financiers, corporations, and civil society partners worldwide, including the US, China, Mexico, Indonesia, and Brazil. Groups are now coming together to prove a different development model. California has pioneered projects to manage landscapes for climate and economic benefits. In China, depleted forests are being regenerated while creating economic opportunities. Across Latin America, water funds are paying for watershed protection and reforestation, and in Brazil, programs to intensify beef production are helping to stabilize the forest frontier. The answer isn t to stop development but to make smarter development decisions which provide for the expanded production the world demands, while protecting and restoring critical landscapes and the climate, said Mark Tercek, The Nature Conservancy s President and CEO. Find out more at global.nature.org

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20 Bridget Besaw 2015