Lluís Coll & François Lefèvre (IP)

Transcription

1 Lluís Coll & François Lefèvre (IP) ERA-NET Sumforest Conference, October 17-18, 2017, Barcelona

2 15 partners, 10 countries

3 Mediterranean forests Socio-ecological systems High biodiversity Multiple goods and services

4 Hotspot of global change

5 (mitigation) A process-based approach of social-ecological systems facing global change GLOBAL CHANGE climate change land-use land-cover demand for ecosystem services Disturbance and disturbance regime scenarios RESPONSE (stand, landscape or regional scale) (change in the social demand) Biodiversity & structure (genetic resources, species diversity) Management for adaptation (interventions, planning) Governance (organisations, regulations) Ecosystem functions Ecosystem services (Common International Classification CICES) Economic evaluation

6 Transdisciplinary research (functional & evolutionary biology, forest sciences, economy and governance)

7 Transdisciplinary research (functional & evolutionary biology, forest sciences, economy and governance)

8 Co-decision scientists with stakeholder panel (Nov 24, 2015) List of 20 relevant questions : General mechanisms in a Mediterranean forest SES (how...?) Contingent processes to be addressed locally in each case study (what...?) Scales : Our project should focus on local scale more than global scale (except contextualization in the scenarios) Three temporal scales to consider : 2035, 2050, 2100 Ecosystem services : List of 19 ES relevant for Mediterranean forests, CICES classification Synergies and trade-offs among ES : correlations are not fixed but variable => investigate the conditions and practices that generate positive, null or negative correlations From science to impact : Higher impact of the research if the research could be translated into local applied projects : transform case studies for research into future pilot studies for stakeholders

9 How do we work? List of 20 relevant questions : General mechanisms in a Mediterranean forest SES (how...?) Contingent processes to be addressed locally in each case study (what...?)

10 How do we work? List of 20 relevant questions : General mechanisms in a Mediterranean forest SES (how...?) Contingent processes to be addressed locally in each case study (what...?) Workshops, reviews

11 How do we work? List of 20 relevant questions : General mechanisms in a Mediterranean forest SES (how...?) Contingent processes to be addressed locally in each case study (what...?) Case studies, modelling Beltrán et al. 2012

12 Coord: L. Coll (UdL-CTFC), L. Brotons (CTFC-CREAF), J. Retana (CREAF) 1. Global change scenarios for Mediterranean forests 2. Management actions for adaptation

13 Coord: L. Coll (UdL-CTFC), L. Brotons (CTFC-CREAF), J. Retana (CREAF) 1. Global change scenarios for Mediterranean forests 2. Management actions for adaptation To review the use of scenarios and models to evaluate the future of nature values and ecosystem services in complex socio-ecologic systems.

14 Number of studies Systemic review (163 articles) Year Original extent of the article Number of drivers Number of articles Global/EU 1 9 Global/EU 2 3 Global/EU 4 1 Regional (Pan-Mediterranean) 1 14 National 1 26 National 2 10 SubNational 1 30 SubNational 2 9 SubNational 3 1 Local 1 37 Local 2 16 Local 3 4 Simulated landscapes (local) 1 2 Simulated landscapes (local) 2 1 TOTAL 163 Morán-Ordóñez et al. (2017) submitted

15 Morán-Ordóñez et al. (2017) submitted

16 Coord: L. Coll (UdL-CTFC), L. Brotons (CTFC-CREAF), J. Retana (CREAF) 1. Global change scenarios for Mediterranean forests 2. Management actions for adaptation To review the use of scenarios and models to evaluate the future of nature values and ecosystem services in complex socio-ecologic systems. To elaborate a conceptual framework to generate global change scenarios for the Mediterranean region (applied case studies)

17 Within a given socio-ecological system scenarios and models should ideally account for both indirect and direct drivers of global change operating at multiple spatio-temporal scales, as well as for the interactions and feedbacks among them (orange arrows) and with other socio-ecological systems (agriculture, water management, conservation and urban development ) Morán-Ordóñez et al. (2017) submitted

18 Coord: L. Coll (UdL-CTFC), L. Brotons (CTFC-CREAF), J. Retana (CREAF) 1. Global change scenarios for Mediterranean forests 2. Management actions for adaptation To provide a theoretical framework for classifying management strategies for adaptation and analyze their efficacy in achieving their objectives explicitly recognizing trade-offs with other untargeted ecosystem components.

19 Disturbance regime (frequency, extension, severity) trade-offs spatial scale, time of application, duration Vilà-Cabrera et al. (2017) For Ecol Manage (In press)

20 1) Reduction of stand density 2) Management of the understory 3) Promoting mixed forests 4) Changing species or genetic composition 5) Promoting spatial heterogeneity at the landscape-scale Vilà-Cabrera et al. (2017) For Ecol Manage (In press)

21 Coord: R. Alía (INIA), F. Aravanopoulos (AUTH), G. Simioni (INRA) 1. Ecological components of resilience 2. Process-based approach of the response of Mediterranean forests to disturbance

22 Coord: R. Alía (INIA), F. Aravanopoulos (AUTH), G. Simioni (INRA) 1. Ecological components of resilience 2. Process-based approach of the response of Mediterranean forests to disturbance To review the basic mechanisms of response to disturbance across spatial scales (from population to landscape) and among organizational levels (from genetics to communities)

23 Coord: R. Alía (INIA), F. Aravanopoulos (AUTH), G. Simioni (INRA) 1. Ecological components of resilience 2. Process-based approach of the response of Mediterranean forests to disturbance To review the basic mechanisms of response to disturbance across spatial scales (from population to landscape) and among organizational levels (from genetics to communities) To develop modelling approaches of forest resilience by coupling population dynamics with functional, evolutionary, and disturbance models.

24 Coord: D. Pettenella (UNIPD), J. Krc (ULJ), A. Stenger (AgroParisTech) 1. Economic and governance data collection

25 Coord: D. Pettenella (UNIPD), J. Krc (ULJ), A. Stenger (AgroParisTech) 1. Economic and governance data collection 2. Evaluation of cost of inaction

26 Coord: H. Daly-Hassen (INGREF). C. Pichot (INRA) Mont Ventoux, France Littoral region of Slovenia Case studies : - 5 integrated case studies - 23 focused case studies El Solsones, Catalonia Ain Snoussi, Tunisia Castillian plateau, Spain

27 Integrated approach in 5 case studies (local stakeholders involved) Morán-Ordóñez et al. (2016)

28 Case study: Solsonès region Mosaic of farmlands and forest Forest composed of pine & oak Wildfire in 1998 ( ha) Study species: Pinus nigra, Pinus sylvestris, mixed forests

29 Axis 1: climate change trends Scenario definition Axis 2: Supra-national policies C storage Wood energy RCP 4.5 The European Forest Sector Outlook Study II (EFSOS II) generated four policy scenarios to give insights into the behaviour of the forest system and how it could be influenced (time horizon 2030). For developments outside the forest sector, the IPCC SRES B2 scenario was used. The four policy scenarios are summarized as follows: Maximising biomass carbon: explores how much carbon could be stored in European forests by changing silvicultural methods, without affecting the level of harvest. Priority to biodiversity: assumes that decision makers give priority to the protection of biological diversity. RCP 8.5 Promoting wood energy: explores what would be necessary for wood to contribute to achieving the ambitious targets for renewable energies adopted by most European countries. Fostering innovation and competitiveness: explores the consequences for the sector of a successful strategy of innovation, leading to improved competitiveness. This scenario is treated in a qualitative way.

30 Axis 1: climate change trends Scenario narratives Axis 2: Supra-national policies C storage Wood energy RCP 4.5 A Low-Moderate climate change (RCP 4.5) implementation of policies to increase C sequestration in forests European and National policies are set and implemented to promote carbon sequestration through changes in silvicultural practices, without compromising the current levels of wood extraction (and economic revenues). This scenario assumes there is an incentive for the forest owner to maximise the carbon in his forest, for example through subsidies or carbon credits, as to cover the extra costs of the modified management regimes. B Low-Moderate climate change (RCP 4.5) implementation of policies that promote renewable energy production The current low levels of forest biomass extraction will increase substantially due to the implementation of European and National policies aimed at promoting the use of renewable energies (woody biomass). This scenario assumes there is a market for wood energy products (due to the proliferation of biomass energy plants, domestic biomass boilers ) so forest management for biomass extraction is economically viable. RCP 8.5 C Strong climate change (RCP 8.5) and implementation of policies to increase C sequestration in forests The expected increase in drought intensity and duration will lead to low levels of biomass accumulation, potential changes in forest species composition and in the maintenance of ecosystem services provision. European and National policies are set and implemented to promote carbon sequestration through changes in silvicultural practices while maintaining the provision of desired ecosystem services (e.g. soil protection, water regulation). This scenario assumes there is an incentive for the forest owner to maximise the carbon in his forest, for example through a subsidy or carbon credit at a sufficient level to cover the extra costs of the modified management regime. D Strong climate change (RCP 8.5) and implementation of policies that promote renewable energy production. The expected increase in droughts will lead to low levels of biomass accumulation, potential changes in forest species composition and in the maintenance of ecosystem services provision. Additionally, the high levels of biomass extraction may led to a reduction of soil protection and potential soil losses under extreme weather conditions (e.g. high-intensity rainfall). The reduced canopy cover may also compromise regeneration due to the exposure of young plants to high-evaporative demand. This scenario assumes there is a market for wood energy products (due to the proliferation of biomass energy plants, domestic biomass boilers ) so forest management for biomass extraction is economically viable even though the productivity of forests is low.

31 Modelling goals 1 Evaluate under each scenario the provisioning of ecosystem services in the pure and mixed pinewoods Timber Carbon storage Water availability (Blue water) Mushroom production Erosion 2 Evaluate the vulnerability of the pinewoods to: Wildfires (fire hazard) Drought-related mortality

32 Inputs Data Modelling framework Spanish forest inventory Initial forest structure Spanish forest inventory network (573 plots)

33 Inputs Data Modelling framework Spanish forest inventory Scenario definition Meeting with stakeholders Initial forest structure Silvicultural treatments

34 Inputs Data Modelling framework Spanish forest inventory Scenario definition Meeting with stakeholders Initial forest structure Silvicultural treatments

35 Annual rainfall (mm) Mean annual temperature (ºC) Inputs Data Modelling framework Spanish forest inventory Scenario definition GCM/RCM climate data Downscaling Initial forest structure Silvicultural treatments Bias-corrected climate data rcp 4.5 (point 1) rcp 8.5 (point 1) rcp 4.5 (point 2) rcp 8.5 (point 2) rcp 4.5 (point 1) rcp 8.5 (point 1) rcp 4.5 (point 2) rcp 8.5 (point 2) year year

36 ES outputs Models Inputs Data Modelling framework Spanish forest inventory Scenario definition GCM/RCM climate data Initial forest structure Silvicultural treatments Bias-corrected climate data SORTIE-ND (annual step) Light competition Growth Mortality Static models (annual step) Water balance model (daily step) (de Cáceres et al. 2015) Rainfall interception Plant transpiration Bare soil evaporation Runoff & deep drainage Forest structure Timber Carbon storage Fire hazard Erosion Drought stress Blue water Mushroom production

37 Same approach Same ecosystem services Different scales Different models Mont Ventoux, France Littoral region of Slovenia El Solsones, Catalonia Ain Snoussi, Tunisia Castillian plateau, Spain

38 Questions? Dr Lluís Coll Multifunctional Forest Management Centre Tecnològic Forestal de Catalunya Crta. de Sant Llorenç de Morunys, Km Solsona T ctfc@ctfc.cat