Mobilizing sustainable bioenergy supply chains

Transcription

1 Mobilizing sustainable bioenergy supply chains Tat Smith Professor University of Toronto Connecting Communities - Building Futures Fueling Growth and Driving Change Tuesday, 28 May 2013 Clarion Resort Pinewood Park North Bay, ON

2 Outline: Some challenges & opportunities Factors underpinning mobilization of potential Food for thought

3 We need a global 50% CO 2 cut by 2050 Gt CO Baseline emissions 57 Gt BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt WEO ppmcase ETP2010 analysis CCS 19% Renewables 17% Nuclear 6% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5% End use fuel switching 15% End use fuel and electricity efficiency 38% Source: ETP 2010 A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO 2 emissions substantially Source: OECD/IEA 2010

4 GLOBAL BIOENERGY PERSPECTIVES Current bioenergy Modern bioenergy: EJ/year Total bioenergy: 50 EJ/year Deployment level of IPCC scenarios by ppm CO 2 eq target: EJ/year <440 ppm CO 2 eq target: EJ/year Current production of other biomass Industrial roundwood: around 15 EJ/year Major agricultural crops: about 60 EJ/year Is a 10-fold increase possible and sustainable?

5 Biomass share of total energy production What challenges to moving % biomass up significantly? FI & SE 80% share in forest sector ( 320 PJ & 400 PJ TGC) (EIA, 2008; EUROSTAT, 2009) CA ~80% share in forest sector (~600 PJ TGC) 5

6 Total volume and sources of forest energy must change significantly Note the current importance of manufacturing by-products ~ 3 TWh Imports < 5 TWh Recycled wood Forest sector > 50 TWh 0.7 TWh Thinning Residues 4.4 TWh Chipwood 1 TWh By-products 5 TWh Black liquor, Pine oil > 35 TWh Source: Björheden, 2004

7 Wood pellet trade streams, 2010 Fig. 10. World wood pellet trade streams above 10 ktonnes in 2010 based on [28,38,42,44,47,48]. Source: Lamers et al. 2012

8 ENGOs continue to raise sustainability concerns European Commission wants to avoid unintended negative consequences of otherwise noble climate change driven goals e.g. EU-RED 2009 criteria

9 COMPLICATED FORESTRY AND BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY GOVERNANCE Example: Canadian exports to EU markets Managed Crown forestland in Canada Non certified forest: 31% of managed forest Certified forest: 69% of managed forest Path 1 Path Path 22 Provincial policies and guidelines Uncertified, but verified to comply with BMPs Voluntary certification: CSA, FSC, SFI? SFM certified, fibre sourcing New EU Standards (EU RED, EU TR )? EU markets Graphics credit: Jessica Murray, University of Toronto. Adapted from: Kittler et al. 2012

10 Forests will continue to be a globally important bioenergy feedstock can we get greater penetration? Market penetration depends on: Energy market development and penetration Forest supply chain complexity and cost Confidence in feedstock inventory estimates Development status of major conversion technologies Sustainability considerations

11 Forests will continue to be a globally important bioenergy feedstock can we get greater penetration? Market penetration depends on: Energy market development and penetration Forest supply chain complexity and cost Confidence in feedstock inventory estimates Development status of major conversion technologies Sustainability considerations

12 Canada s electricity feedstocks, 2009 a challenge to penetrate this sector by replacing existing capacity Source: The Globe & Mail, 12 Sept 2011

13 Forests will continue to be a globally important bioenergy feedstock can we get greater penetration? Market penetration depends on: Energy market development and penetration Forest supply chain complexity and cost Confidence in feedstock inventory estimates Development status of major conversion technologies Sustainability considerations

14 Requires efficient integration STAND: 3 Round wood 250 m Forest residues 100 m 42 odt At least one third of the logging residues and stumps will be left in the forest as a fertiliser ROUND WOOD WITH BARK 105 odt 3 HARVESTING FOREST RESIDUES 1 hectare STUMPS 3 Potential m For energy m m = 2,5 i-m odt odt 250 m odt m odt odt Bark, sawdust and other wood residues E.Alakangas 3 SAWMILL/PULP MILL m Wood fuel odt TOTAL WOOD FUELS odt m = MWh Heat production = MWh Electricity production = MWh

15 Consider complexity of feedstock supply chains All flows of assortments Swedish case Source: Filsberg et al. 2010

16 Forests will continue to be a globally important bioenergy feedstock can we get greater penetration? Market penetration depends on: Energy market development and penetration Forest supply chain complexity and cost Confidence in feedstock inventory estimates Development status of major conversion technologies Sustainability considerations

17 Biomass inventory studies conducted in Canada for forest and agriculture sources of biomass Huge variation in some estimates and what amount is sustainably and commercially available? Source: Smith et al

18 Canadian forest sector AAC vs actual harvest Prior to global financial meltdown. What proportion available? Unused AAC 50 million m 3 /yr Source:

19 Cost of northeastern Ontario biomass supply chains Harvest residue recovery Cost of delivered biomass is 72%-88% higher for whole-tree harvest Cost ($/odt) Grinding, no pre-piling Grinding, with pre-piling Chipping, no pre-piling Comminution scenario Chipping, with pre-piling Unutilized AAC whole-tree harvest Other costs Transportation cost Biomass recovery Harvesting cost 80 Cost ($/odt) Other costs ($/odt) Transportation cost ($/odt) Biomass recovery ($/odt) Harvesting cost ($/odt) Source: Ralevic Grinding, no pre-piling Grinding, with Chipping, no pre-piling pre-piling Comminution scenario Chipping, with pre-piling

20 Forests will continue to be a globally important bioenergy feedstock can we get greater penetration? Market penetration depends on: Energy market development and penetration Forest supply chain complexity and cost Confidence in feedstock inventory estimates Development status of major conversion technologies Sustainability considerations

21 Development status of main technologies upgrade, heat & power IEA Bioenergy: ExCo: 2009:05 Source: E4tech 2009

22 Development status of main technologies biofuels for transportation IEA Bioenergy: ExCo: 2009:05 Source: E4tech 2009

23 Forests will continue to be a globally important bioenergy feedstock can we get greater penetration? Market penetration depends on: Energy market development and penetration Forest supply chain complexity and cost Confidence in feedstock inventory estimates Development status of major conversion technologies Sustainability considerations

24 Our responsibility & challenge: Design low-impact systems Identify risks to soils, water, biodiversity, GHG balances Identify practices to mitigate risks Develop standards and C&I for SFM Environmental incl. LCA Economic Social Commit to certification of whole value chain Graphics source: Courtesy Tapio Ranta, VTT Processes 2002

25 Risk assessment and SFM guidelines should be site-specific Site type 3b Sources: OMNR 1997, CFS 2006

26 Classify sites by management intensity Bioenergy production Silvicultural system Minimal Conservation, Wildlife, Aesthetics etc Incidental objective Conventional Industrial wood Incidental objective Incidental Conventional plus Industrial + bioenergy Secondary objective Bioenergy crops Short-rotation crops Intensive wood-fuels Primary objective Branch and foliage removals Site nutrient losses Unmanaged Salvage, Improvement cuts Selection Selection Seed tree Shelterwood Clearcutting Clearcutting Seed tree (including thinning) Clearcutting Coppice systems (wood-fuel collection) Mead & Smith, 2012

27 : Classify sites by site quality Quality of site? Survey & classify Very High No limitations High to moderate Fertile to average / small to moderate limitations Marginal Infertile / moderate limitations Low Infertile / known deficiencies / major limitations Very Low Very low fertility / shallow <25 cm / major limitations Limited or no monitoring, despite harvesting intensity Full tree harvesting? Intensive bioenergy? No Yes Full tree harvesting? Intensive bioenergy? No Yes No bioenergy production Limited production No bioenergy Long-term monitoring Fertilizer inputs unlikely Regular monitoring Limited fertilizer inputs Intensive monitoring Regular fertilizer inputs Mead & Smith, 2012

28 Increasing demand for Life Cycle Assessment of bioenergy systems Bird et al. -- IEA Bioenergy:ExCo:2011:03

29 Debate regarding the timing of benefits of forest bioenergy systems Source: Francesco Cherubini, NTNU-Trondheim

30 Overall message Mobilizing Sustainable Bioenergy Supply Chains The foundation for mobilising sustainable bioenergy supply chains should be a competitive business case that is efficient along the whole supply and value chain from the growing side to energy markets and consumers. Sustainability criteria can often be viewed as constraints on the system, but also provide an adaptable framework that provides an opportunity for all actors to engage and contribute to sustainable deployment of bioenergy systems. Challenges to resolve: Develop competitive supply and value chains Quantify (+ / -) sustainability impacts of bioenergy supply chains Simplify governance of supply chains

31 Policy -Enablers and roadblocks Supply chain 1 Feedstock -Sources of uncertainty Need to reduce uncertainty and increase profitability Logistics - Factors that influence agility, efficiency and profitability Sustainability - Footprint and governance schemes Supply chain 2 Logistics - Factors that influence agility, efficiency and profitability Sustainability - Footprint and governance schemes Feedstock -Sources of uncertainty Supply chain 3 Logistics - Factors that influence agility, efficiency and profitability Sustainability - Footprint and governance schemes Feedstock -Sources of uncertainty

32 Mobilising sustainable bioenergy supply chains project Questions: What affects and/or limits mobilisation? Technical and non-technical opportunities, incentives & barriers Economic Presence of entrepreneurs Amount of investment & profits for all actors Policy incentives & barriers Public concerns or support for sustainability (iluc, GHG, biodiversity) Why is potential not realized? What creates markets? How can business expand? What sustains it? Is it good? What does industry need to be successful and expand? Opportunity for hedging? What prevents regions from becoming significant suppliers? What risks might cause collapse of existing significant supply chains? How can energy poverty be minimized?

33 The overall objective for IEA Bioenergy inter-task project during period is to enhance the mobilization of sustainable bioenergy supply chains globally. Identification of the necessary elements of a successful and sustainable bioenergy supply chain. Develop new and existing frameworks that seek to understand and explain the underpinning elements that. contribute to sustainable supply chains. Include elements of availability of feedstock, applicable conversion processes, GHG balances, land use issues, governance mechanisms and other aspects of bioenergy production and supply. Integration across complex systems which leads to transfer of knowledge to new and upcoming bioenergy technologies or feedstocks in different regions of the world.

34 Urgent need for new science-industry-policy communities ecoenergy Innovation Initiative

35 Thanks! Questions?