On Weather and Forest Monitoring, GEO, and GCOS. Thoughts for the GCOS Steering Committee meeting Geneva 30 September 2010

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1 On Weather and Forest Monitoring, GEO, and GCOS Thoughts for the GCOS Steering Committee meeting Geneva 30 September 2010 By Jim Baker 15 September 2010 Introduction This short note is a summary of the status of forest monitoring work that is related to GCOS interests, and is based on work that Gary Richards, John Zillman, I, and many others have been involved with on forest monitoring through GEO. There are some important parallels between forestry monitoring and weather monitoring and there have been some major advances made in the past year in terms of organization, planning, and potential funding. Thus it seemed useful to have an update for the GCOS Steering Committee. There are plenty of experts here today, so I will just do a brief summary, highlighting what I see as special opportunities for GCOS. It is widely understood that minimizing deforestation and forest degradation would contribute greatly to emission-reduction efforts. In addition, creating and restoring productive forestlands are two of our best options to sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Nonetheless, these significant potential contributors to global climate change strategies have not yet been part of climate solutions due to the historic inability to measure accurately enough their contributions to carbon emissions and sequestration. The inability of nations to produce credible evidence of their compliance with forestryrelated provisions has prevented inclusion of these practices in climate agreements. Now with new satellite technology, better ecosystem models, and improved data-delivery capabilities, it is possible to design forest carbon monitoring, reporting, and verification systems that can provide the required accuracy to allow forestry practices to become a key strategy for achieving global climate change mitigation goals. While the technical capacities exist, much work remains to develop national institutions and the international framework to provide operational systems for continuous and verifiable carbon information. This is essential for demonstrating compliance with international climate treaties. Such information will also provide a credible foundation for evolving carbon markets, which will enable efficient financing of emissions reductions and create economic incentives for sound forestry, poverty reduction and other social benefits. Fortunately, the evolution of global weather forecasting services provides helpful insights and a useful model for establishing an operational system to monitor, report, and verify (MRV) forest carbon emissions and sequestration. Since they also need operational global capability to provide products of important societal value, the development of forest carbon MRV systems can parallel the development of operational weather forecasting systems. 1

2 Weather Forecasting and WMO For both weather prediction and forest carbon accounting, we need high-quality observations, models to produce information from the data, and this information must be readily and easily accessible to all users. For weather, National Meteorological Services (NMS), operated by governments and referred to here simply as NMSs, combine these three elements to provide useful information to a variety of users. Forecast Models Delivery of Warnings and Forecasts To Users Satellite and Ground Observations Weather observations are collected on scales ranging from local to global. The data systems are funded and operated by national governments through NMSs and national satellite agencies. By international agreement, all essential data for weather forecasting and warning is provided in a free and open manner. The models incorporate the data and provide accurate depiction of weather anywhere in the world and are the basis for forecasts spanning hours to weeks. The NMS delivery system provides weather data, warnings and forecasts to a variety of users, including government, industry, international bodies, and the public. The delivery system allows collaborations among these sectors on such activities as sharing current weather information as well as disaster warnings and relief efforts after hurricanes and typhoons. The delivery system is managed by NMSs, providing basic forecasts to the public through the web and media outlets. There is also a thriving private market for specialized weather services. The WMO sets standards for weather and climate observations, ensures that weather data can flow easily, makes agreements about data sharing and data accessibility, and builds capacity in developing countries. These facilities are owned and operated by WMO member countries, each of which agrees to meet certain responsibilities so that all countries can benefit from the consolidated efforts. One of the features of the WMO system is its hierarchical structure of global, regional, and national analysis and modeling 2

3 centers through which, in exchange for the input of their national data, even the smallest NMSs have free access to guidance products from the network of regional/specialized and global centers which have the necessary resources for the data assimilation and modeling systems which are beyond the capabilities of the smaller countries. The NMS/WMO arrangement provides a good model for forest carbon monitoring, reporting, and verification, namely the use of government-based operational national systems coordinated internationally to make information available to citizens of all countries. The carbon landscape is more complex, shaped by emerging emissionsreduction regimes, regulation, and carbon markets, and involving numerous organizations and agencies. Much of this complexity can be linked to the general absence of government-run national operational systems. A similar situation existed in the 1860s in the U.S. when there were many entities making weather forecasts: the Army, the Smithsonian, several states, and even the Catholic Church had observing sites. The U.S. government exerted great effort to supplant these disparate efforts with a national weather service. Forest Carbon Monitoring and FAO Effective national forest carbon monitoring systems will help nations comply with international agreements and facilitate the evolving international carbon trading system by providing reasonably accurate data delivered in a timely fashion. Mirroring the global weather services system, a robust global forest carbon monitoring, reporting, and verification capability will include the same three components: data, models, and GIS systems. Forestry data, as weather data, comes from on-the-ground observations as well as instruments carried by aircraft and satellites. National forest services, national satellite agencies, non-governmental groups, and the private sector collect the data locally, regionally, nationally and globally. In contrast to weather data, significant amounts of forestry data are proprietary. It is to be hoped that the existence of national systems for international reporting, backed up by satellite data available to all, will provide transparency. For models, many groups have developed forestry ecosystem models to estimate carbon and nitrogen storage and fluxes among the atmosphere, vegetation, and soil. These, like weather models, are simplified representations of the natural system, but adequate for estimation of forest growth, soil organic matter levels, and the fluxes of climatically significant gases. There is much less standardization than in the weather community, but there is an active research effort to improve and standardize carbon models. In terms of data delivery, some countries have strong forest services with the ability to provide useful forestry information; many developing countries do not. Most countries, including developed countries, do not yet have operational national forest carbon monitoring, reporting, and verification systems that can meet IPCC standards. The challenge is to link the models and the data with GIS systems to provide policy-relevant 3

4 forest carbon information. As with weather systems, there will be a role for governments and the private sector, supplemented by non-governmental organizations, which have considerable forest-project experience. The commitment to an operational system for long-term observations is important since many forestry decisions have lasting implications. The figure below shows the elements required. Forest Carbon Models Delivery of Carbon Information through GIS To Users Forest Carbon Satellite and Field Studies As far as international coordination is concerned, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is the primary UN forestry agency. Just as WMO was formed by nations needing better weather services, FAO was founded in 1945 as a neutral forum for nations to negotiate agreements and debate policy and as a source of knowledge and information. FAO brings long experience to the subject, having monitored the world's forests at 5 to 10 year intervals since FAO s Global Forest Resources Assessments (FAO FRA) are based on national data that countries provide to FAO. The FRA heritage provides FAO with a comprehensive network of in-country contacts and access to a range of ground and forest inventory datasets, as well as knowledge of remote sensing techniques. While there is merit in existing efforts, they do not yet meet the needs required for a climate emissions reduction regime. Drawing on the weather experience, there needs to be a forest carbon monitoring and accounting analogue to the WMO, ensuring as WMO does for weather that institutions and policies are in place for: Setting Standards Ensuring Data Flow Supporting Developing Countries Representing the interests of national systems 4

5 Like the WMO, this new international framework for forest monitoring needs to draw on the authorities and capabilities of relevant UN agencies (at least the FAO, UNEP, UNDP, UNFCCC, and the IPCC) and the strength of other interested and experienced players, including foundations, universities, and businesses. It should also deliver the same support and coordinating functions that WMO provides to national weather services and foster the establishment of national carbon accounting systems as quickly as possible. It is in this area that the Group on Earth Observations is making a major contribution. The Global Forest Observations Initiative Replicating the weather system s effectiveness and success is contingent on creating a coherent international framework integrated with and supporting national carbon accounting systems to provide quality carbon information. This is exactly why the GEO Global Forest Observations Initiative (GFOI) has been developed. The material below is summarized from the recent GEO report on the Concept Phase for developing a Global Forest Observations Initative, that was prepared under the auspices of the GEO Forest Carbon Tracking Task. GEO has taken the initiative in investigating how to improve the provision of satellite and ground data for forest monitoring, in the framework of a proposed GFOI. The basic operating context of the GFOI is based on the fact that the key users of data and information are the governments developing national systems. These governments will report into various international agreements and global assessments. GEO will promote the coordination of data collection, and associated work of documentation, intercalibration and interoperability. GEO will work with various organizations to ensure there is comprehensive coverage and continuity of data. The National Demonstrators (NDs) that have been set up within the GEO FCT task have been useful in identifying what additionally needs to be done to establish or to strengthen national operational capabilities. The arrangements for the National Demonstrators are on a voluntary basis. A transition from demonstration to operations at a national level would need to be done on a different basis, requiring a more robust suite of agreements and obligations than has been needed for the NDs. Dedicated research and development activities are required to provide continuous improvement to the evolving national operational systems. The role of the GFOI is to support countries in preparing their national carbon reports, and it will be consistent with the reporting requirements of the UNFCCC, such as consistency, comparability and transparency. The components of the GFOI are Support to national governments: applying consistent and comparable methods is fundamental to building the individually developed and comparable national systems. Observations and measurement: regular and routine (systematic) observations and measurements are essential for effective reporting. Data acquisitions need to include satellite, periodic ground, and other measurements. Continuity of data 5

6 supply will be needed to ensure maintenance of time series and consistent reporting. Achieving interoperability between observations from different satellite sensors over time is crucial to ensuring time series consistency. Methods and protocols for data collection, processing and integration: GEO should promote and encourage the development of methods and protocols for data collection, processing and integration. Continuing research and development: GEO should promote coordinated research and development needed for continuous improvement of national forest information systems. National capacity building: to help governments develop national forest information systems, GEO will work in collaboration with other providers such as the FAO. The detailed plan for the GFOI will developed during 2011, and the planning process will, among other things: assess national capabilities for producing national forest information; identify strategies needed to improve national capabilities; identify potential sources of observations (satellite and in-situ) and associated data policies; provide a work plan with time lines and deliverables for the GFOI; identify recommendations to GEO Plenary 2011 and its participants for future action to implement the work plan; and, describe proposals for measuring success. Role of GCOS John Zillman has emphasized the importance of bringing the GCOS and GEO/GEOSS processes into alignment, and it will be important for the GFOI to be seen as part of the existing global climate observing systems that has been designed and progressively implemented within a well defined and accepted overall framework. As a consequence, there should be a close connection between the GFOI, GCOS/GTOS, and CEOS. The GFOI can be seen as contributing to the GCOS Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC as well as helping to meet the observing needs identified by GTOS. The Committee on Earth Observations Satellites (CEOS) has the mandate to serve as the space arm of GEO. It has already provided an undertaking to provide the necessary coordination of its Member agencies to address the space data requirements of the GEO GFOI effort, and to ensure that satellite Earth observations serve an appropriate role in coordination with ground observations. The GFOI will also contribute to the work of the UN Collaborative Program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in developing countries (UN- REDD), which in turn builds on the convening power and expertise of FAO, UNEP and UNDP. GFOI will also contribute to the World Bank Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) which assists developing countries in their efforts to reduce emissions from 6

7 deforestation and forest degradation by providing value to standing forests. Finally, the GFOI supports the WMO/UNEP IPCC Task Force on Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The Task Force has developed comprehensive guidelines for the preparation of national inventories of carbon stocks and emissions - including those from forests. Given the strong role of the GFOI in meeting the broad needs that have been identified by GCOS, it deserves full GCOS support. It would be useful to explore the scope for alignment and synergy between forest carbon monitoring and 'climate' monitoring in its traditional sense. When the concept for GCOS was formulated in 1991, monitoring of the carbon cycle was identified as critical, but the early preoccupation in GCOS with the more traditional climate programs tended to detract from the focus on the carbon cycle and its components. But now that the Climate Societal Benefit Area of GEOSS and GCOS are aligned and given the importance of an integrated approach to serving the observational needs of Parties to the UNFCCC, there appears to be a real opportunity to look for the best ways of achieving mutual support with the GCOS structures, processes and plans. 7