Crop / Weather Update

Transcription

1 Crop / Weather Update

2 Corn Crop Condition Percent of Acreage Rated Good or Excellent The USDA s weekly Crop Progress report rated the U.S. corn crop as of September 30 as being 69% good-to-excellent, which was again unchanged from the week prior. That compares well to industry expectations for a 68% good-excellent reading, and to comparable year-ago and 10-year average readings at 63% and 61% good-excellent, respectively. The result slightly above the forecast implies futures may slip in overnight trading. The most interesting aspect of this latest report is the across-the-board improvement in the main Corn Belt states, with Nebraska s crop rating rising 1% to 83% good-excellent, Iowa reaching 75% (+2%), Illinois at 80% (+1%), Indiana at 74% (+1%) and Ohio at 81% (+1%). The biggest changes came in the form of a 6% rise in the Tennessee reading (to 82%) and a 5% loss in Michigan to 52% good-excellent.

3 Corn Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 The U.S. corn harvest advanced 10% to 26% complete during the week ended September 30. That s only slightly ahead industry expectations at 25%, but far ahead of last year s pace at 16%, and well ahead of the 10-year average at 21%. The North Carolina harvest continued leading the nation, with 83% of the crop now in the bin. Next come Texas (at 70% complete), Missouri (65%) and Kentucky (60%). The Missouri result marked a 22% surge in combining, easily the largest accomplished last week. The Illinois harvest is nearly half done at 48%, while the Indiana harvest is 27% complete. Harvesting in the other main states is still under 20% done, with Nebraska at 17%, and Iowa and Ohio both at 11% complete. As one would expect, the North Dakota harvest at just 6% complete is the slowest in the nation..

4 Cotton Crop Condition Percent of Acreage Rated Good or Excellent The USDA stated the condition of the cotton crop in the 15 major growing states at 42% good-to-excellent, thereby marking a 3% weekly improvement. That s still dramatically below the year-ago figure at 57% good-excellent and a good bit below the 10-year average reading at 47%. Still, the weekly improvement may weigh upon cotton futures in overnight trading. As one would expect, a 5% surge in the Texas reading to 28% good-excellent was almost surely the main driver of the aggregate increase. But the national norm was sizable weekly shifts for the various states. That is, all six of the states posting losses saw readings fall at least 4%, with the largest drop coming in Virginia (down 7% to 70% good-excellent). Conversely, four of the six states boasting of improved conditions showed good-excellent gains of 5% or more. Readings for North and South Carolina rebounded strongly (+6% to 32% and 5% to 55%) from the hurricane-damaged results posted the previous two weeks.

5 Cotton Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Recent rainfall continued limiting the cotton harvest pace, as indicated for the second consecutive weekly rise of just 3% completed to 19%. On the other hand, the normal pace isn t particularly strong at this time of year, as indicated by the 3% increase (to 17% complete) in harvesting done last year, as well as the 10-year average at 4% (to 14%). The Louisiana harvest remained farthest along at 38% complete, although that marked a weekly increase of just 2%, whereas Missouri harvesting surged 19% to 28% done. The Texas harvest edged 2% forward to reach 25% complete, with the three indicated being the only states in which the cotton harvest is one-quarter accomplished. Picking has yet to begin in California, Kansas and Virginia.

6 Rice Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 This week, the rice crop harvest is 70% complete, up 5 points from last week. This is 7 points below last year s harvest, which moved along exceptionally well at a faster pace than average. The 10-year average for this time of year is 67% complete. When looking at each of the six major rice-growing states individually, rice harvest progress is above the 5-year average for half of the states. Mississippi s harvest is 86% complete already this fall, up 3 points from last week, and 13% above average. Arkansas is 2 points above average at 77% complete this week, and Missouri is one point above average at 59%. The state lagging the most behind in rice harvest is California. The average for this time in the harvest season is 27%; but this year, California is only 18% complete, up 3 points from last week. Louisiana and Texas are slightly lower than average, but both are almost complete at 97% and 98%, respectively.

7 Soybean Crop Condition Percent of Acreage Rated Good or Excellent /3 6/17 7/1 7/15 7/29 8/12 8/26 9/9 9/23 10/7 This week s soybean crop condition rating is once again 68% good/excellent for the second week in a row. This year s soybean crop is still soaring above past years: 8 points above last year s good/excellent ratings and 9 points above the 10-year average. At this time of year, it s normal for the condition rating to stay consistent without much change. This is also true for the soybean conditions in the major soybean-growing states in the U.S. Seven states decreased in their good/excellent condition rating, but they were all only between 1 and 3 points down. The only state that decreased three points was South Dakota, down to 58% good/excellent. Five states had no change in their good/excellent condition rating: Kentucky 81%, Tennessee 74%, Mississippi 67%, Louisiana 53% and Missouri 44%, which is still the lowest condition rating of all states. Six states increased in their top condition ratings, but only two made major leaps: North Carolina went back up to 49%, recovering from the damage done by Hurricane Florence; and Ohio went up 4 points to 81% good/excellent. The highest good/excellent soybean rating is Nebraska at 85% good/excellent, up 2 points from last week s already great rating.

8 Soybean Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29 11/5 11/12 11/19 This week, soybean harvest is 23% complete, up 9 points from last week. This is 1 point above year-ago and the same as the 10-year average. Many states are right on target with the five-year average, give or take a point or two. These are Kansas (7% complete), Michigan (11% ), Minnesota (27%), Missouri (11%), North Carolina (5%) and Tennessee (18%). States that are above average completion with soybean harvest are: Illinois (35% complete, up 15 points above average), Nebraska (27%, up 10 points above average), Wisconsin (13% complete, up 5 points above average) and Indiana (24% complete, up 5 points above average). On the reverse side, some states are not as far along with the harvest as they usually are. The biggest story is in Arkansas, where producers are only 20% complete, but the 5-year average for this time of year is 37% complete. The other large gap is in Louisiana, where soybean harvest is at 69% complete, 15 points below last year and 6 points below average.

9 Winter Wheat Planting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 This week, winter wheat planted is 43% complete across the 18 major winter-wheat-growing states, which is 15 points above last week. Also, this is 9 points above year-ago and 1 point above the 10-year average. All states have now started planting winter wheat, although North Carolina is only 1% complete, which is typical for this time of year. States making progress above average are California (15% complete, above 10 points on the average), Indiana (17% complete, above 5 points on the average), Kansas (41% complete, above 9 points) and Oregon (32% complete, above 6 points). Many states are right on target with their averages, including Colorado with 67% complete, Idaho with 53% complete, Nebraska with 72% complete, Oklahoma with 41% complete, South Dakota with 67% complete and Washington with 69% complete. The big story for a state being behind in planting is in Montana. Winter wheat growers are only 35% complete, and the 5-year-average is 67% complete. Montana producers did make great progress from last week, up 27%, but still not enough to catch up to the average.

10 Weather The map summarizes rainfall over the past week to Monday. A front that had moved across the central Corn Belt one week ago made progress farther to the south and east during the early portion of the week. We find most of the central South, the Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast with above average rainfall. Despite those rains this week and late the prior week, they did not appear to have much impact on the corn harvest progress that jumped to 26%. Perhaps there was some tradeoff with the soybeans, which in contrast to corn, lagged expectations for progress. Wheat plantings also made normal progress to the low 40% range for completion. With many areas west of the Mississippi River drier than normal, that makes sense.

11 Weather The map displays Monday s seven-day rainfall forecast to next Monday. According to the forecast maps, it will be a very wet week ahead, but heavily weighted on the rainfall totals at the back end of the week. Per NWS, frontal activity has the potential to bring multiple inch totals from the Texas Panhandle north and east in the eastern Great Plains to northern Missouri, Iowa and from there into the Great Lakes. The Southeast will be mostly dry, and the rains may skirt mostly north of the Delta. We would expect quite a lot of harvesting to be accomplished early this week, but to the extent the forecast is correct, harvesting will get shut down or severely limited going into and during the weekend.

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