FWPA Project PNC : Evaluating and modelling radiata pine wood quality in the Murray valley region

Transcription

1 FWPA Project PNC325-14: Evaluating and modelling radiata pine wood quality in the Murray valley region Validation and development of ecambium within an evaluation of Pinus radiata wood variability in the Murray Valley Basin Jul 2014 Aug 2016 Geoff Downes Forest Quality Pty. Ltd. Dave Drew Forest Forecasting

2 Wealth from forestry Site average lumber value ($.m -3 ) $450 $425 $400 $375 $350 $325 y = 93.61x R² = 0.57 $ Site-average log Acoustic wave velocity (km.sec -1 ) The ability to turn sunlight into product and add value to it.

3 ecambium s prediction of site value ecambium predictions made 4 months before logs were harvested Partly dependent on grade thresholds for converting MOE into grade Actual calculated value $/m 3 $425 $400 $375 $350 $325 $300 $275 Vic NSW Bago cpt 66 high elevation $250 $225 y = 0.41x R² = 0.62 $225 $250 $275 $300 $325 $350 $375 $400 $425 ecambium predicted $/m 3

4 ecambium s prediction of log MOE ecambium predictions made 4 months before logs were harvested Vic NSW Hv0a Mean log MOE (GPa) Me111 Bg y = 1.01x R² = ecambium predicted BH MOE (GPa)

5 Overview of ecambium (Version 2) ecambium predictions of wood variation link effects of growth on board volume and quality

6 Drilling down into the lower level values Daily predictions of Wood density MFA Fibre diameter Fibre wall thickness

7 Tree growth predictions Predictions of Height DBH Stand Volume Soil water availability Predawn water potential

8 ecambium s main user interface

9 Defining site

10 Defining regime

11 Defining weather

12 Building a scenario

13 Murray Valley Basin Validation Project Objectives Regional assessment of wood property variation from P. radiata sites in the Murray Valley Basin close to harvest represent wide range of resource variability Obtain a representative data set describing site average and variance data of tree and wood properties as a basis for evaluating the performance of the ecambium modelling tool Produce a commercially-ready version of ecambium

14 Site Selection Buccluegh Greenhills Carabost Bago Ovens Valley Maragle Benalla Shelley

15 Stage 1: NDE Resource Evaluation 53 sites 30 trees per site DBH Outerwood density cores Standing tree acoustic velocity (ST300) 6 trees per site Tree height Branch diameter Bark thickness

16 ecambium prediction of outerwood density 50% of the variation in site mean OWD was predicted by ecambium

17 Empirical prediction of outerwood density OWD = (Branch Diameter) (Spring Rainfall) (Age) 38% variance explained UT_OWD = (Branch Diameter) (Autumn Rainfall) (Max. Autumn T)+2.45(Age) 55% variance explained T1_OWD = (Branch Diameter) 0.476(DBHOB) 0.066(Annual Rainfall) 21.55(Ave Temp) 0.07(Annual Radiation) (Age) 71% variance explained

18 a. CB Problem of 50mm outerwood cores 50 mm 50 mm 5 yr 5 yr b. CB Mean wood density (kg/m³) 50 mm Mean wood density (kg/m³) 5 yr 5 yr

19 Radial trends Comparison with actual Silviscan data allowed ecambium to be evaluated at the annual ring level to assess whether the model was predicting radial trends accurately.

20 IML Resistograph 30 secs per tree Provides radial variation No Laboratory work Easy to-use a. OuterWood Density (kg/m3) y = 0.15x R² = Outerwood Resi (resistance units)

21 ecambium site value predictions 1:HV $329 Count = DBHUB = :HV0a $347 2:ST $252 3:BR $265 5:MG $310 6:MG $314 7:MG $340 8:ME $315 9:NN $355 10:HC $320 11:MH $219 Count = DBHUB = :WT $318 :HL $315 14:WC $314 15:EV $276 16:JN $342 17:KO $345 18:LV $348 19:LV $305 20:LV $337 21:GO $247 Count = DBHUB = :BU $337 23:BU $317 24:TR $307 25:TR $344 26:GA $314 27:WB $369 27:WB $282 28:AR $352 29:GC $348 30:OC $330 Count = DBHUB = :OC $295 32:OC $321 33:OC $369 34:WJ $357 35:SP $223 36:SP $217 37:BI104T 312 $386 38:BI $363 39:MA $302 40:MA $309 Count = DBHUB = :BG $303 42:BG $321 43:BG $362 44:BG $318 45:GH $236 46:GH $277 47:GH $331 48:GH $268 49:GH $232 49:GH $229 Count = DBHUB = :CB $323 51:MU $354 52:CB $368 53:CB $328 utility F5 MGP10 MGP12 MGP15 Board Proportions

22 Sawmill study sites value predictions 2:HV0a value = $ 344 m^ utility F5 MGP10 MGP12 MGP15 8:ME111 value = $ 320 m^3 11:MH001 value = $ 250 m^3 18:LV015 value = $ 344 m^ Board Volume (m^3) Board Count = DBHUB = :LV018b value = $ 310 m^ :LV018a value = $ 334 m^ :BI104T1 value = $ 375 m^ :MA044UT value = $ 316 m^ Board Count = DBHUB = :BG587T1 value = $ 325 m^3 44:BG066UT value = $ 328 m^3 47:GH845T2 value = $ 331 m^3 52:CB011T1 value = $ 360 m^ Board Count = DBHUB =

23 Log Preparation

24 Comparing actual and ecambium log end images

25 Barcode application to log ends

26 Logs weighed for green density calculation

27 Logs loaded into mill infeed

28 Resultant boards imaged

29 ecambium s prediction of site value ecambium predictions made 4 months before logs were harvested Partly dependent on grade thresholds for converting MOE into grade Actual calculated value $/m 3 $425 $400 $375 $350 $325 $300 $275 Vic NSW Bago cpt 66 high elevation $250 $225 y = 0.41x R² = 0.62 $225 $250 $275 $300 $325 $350 $375 $400 $425 ecambium predicted $/m 3

30 Conclusions: 1 of 2 ecambium explained similar OWD variance to empirical models, These were fitted regressions and not applied in a predictively What is a commercially acceptable? Discussions with industry: 60% or better is what most would be comfortable with. ecambium predictions in range using general inputs for site descriptions publically available database values FR constant at 0.3, rock content constant at zero Parameter optimization, across Tasmania, Green Triangle, Victoria and NSW yielded calibration r 2 > 60%. Comprehensive optimization and further development should improve predictions.

31 Conclusions: 2 of 2 ecambium explained 50-60% of the site average sawlog value and log MOE Cheap and simple way to obtain broad-scale insights into wood property and value variation across an estate Used to target field sampling programs combine with Resistograph as a cost-effective approach to sampling for density and AWV. Model setup and operation has been simplified ready for commercial application

32 Industry workshops Two workshops will provide an opportunity for FWPA levy payers to try the model Wed 6 th July 2016 FCNSW offices, Tumut Friday 8 th July 2016 HVP offices, Melbourne

33 Questions: