Environment and Sustainable Development of Mongolian Plateau Region: an overview of international collaboration activities and results

Transcription

1 NEESPI Regional Science Team Meeting Sept 2007, Urumqi, China Environment and Sustainable Development of Mongolian Plateau Region: an overview of international collaboration activities and results Funding sponsor: Chinese Academy of Sciences Lin Zhen, Jiyuan Liu, D. Dorjgotov, O. Batkhishig, Qinxue Wang, Yuhai Bao IGSNRR of CAS, IG of MAS, NIES of Japan, IMNU

2 What does Mongolian Plateau refer to? The Mongolian Plateau is part of the larger Central Asian Plateau and has an area of approximately 2,600,000 square kilometers. It is occupied by Mongolia in the north and Inner Mongolia (an autonomous region of China) in the south. The plateau includes the Gobi Desert as well as dry steppe regions. It has an elevation of roughly 900 to 1,500 meters. Human density: 0-50 people/km2.

3 Outline Background and focus of China-Mongolia collaboration Climate change and impacts Consumption and perceptions of ecosystem services: Mongolia vs Inner Mongolia Environmental consequence: soil erosion mechanism Mongolia vs Inner Mongolia Plans for future research and collaboration

4 BACKGROUND Discussion of Foreign Aid Project in Science and Technology Acting President T. Galbaatar of MAS President Lu Yong-Xiang of CAS In 2003: The Memorandum of Scientific Cooperation between CAS and MAS In 2004: Establishment of Joint Committee on Scientific Cooperation Between CAS-MAS, and the First Meeting of the Committee in Beijing

5 BACKGROUND China-Mongolia-Japan Meeting, Aug 2005 Ulaanbaatar Vice presidential meeting CAS-MAS, Oct 2005 Ulaanbaatar Cooperation Agreement between IGSNRR, IG & IMNU Dec 2005 Dec 22, 2005 IGSNRR-CAS, Beijing

6 Important Notes in MOU Joint field survey and building a national level GIS Establishing ecosystem monitoring /research stations in Mongolia Joint research programs in the field of environment and sustainable development Personnel exchanges and capacity building Implementation mechanism: setting up an international joint research center for Mongolian Plateau study

7 Opening Ceremony of JRC 26 Aug, 2006, Inner Mongolia

8 Organizational Structure Coordinating Panel The Directors/President of Each Party Managers of Intern l Affairs Co-Directors Ulaanbaatar Office Hohhot Office Beijing Office RG 1 Envi. Monitoring & GIS RG 2 Land degrad. & ES. RG 3 Human interv. & LUCC RG 4 Climate change & ES RG 5 Modeling soil erosion

9 Prof Dr O.Batkhishig, geographic & soil scientist, got degree from Moscow Uni.Director of soil lab of IG. Involved in natural geography, soil chemistry, land degradation, mapping projects at home and abroad. Lots of intern l publications. Ulaanbaatar Office Beijing Office Hohhot Office Prof Dr Yuhai Bao,graduated from IRSA of CAS in 1999.RS & GIS scientist, director of the key lab for RS & GIS of IM, vice president of the College of Geographic Sciences, IMNU. FOR: RS survey of res.-envi., LUCC, RS & GIS based forest, soil erosion, desertification,developed GIS for land & resources of IM, has wide intern l collaboration, a member of IGBP.Above 30 papers and 2 monographs. Well-known to the people and resources of the MP. Dr Lin Zhen, Asc Porf with IGSNRR of CAS, graduated from AIT in 2003, majoring in socioecology and NRM. Secretary general of res.-eco. committee of CANR. FOR: ecosystem-human interactions & eco-compensation. Ab 30 publications and 1 monography. Good relations with intern l org.

10 1. Capacity building: GIS & RS Training (Jul-Aug, 2006, IGSNRR)

11 Products using SuperMap GIS

12 So far, altogether 21 vector maps have been developed. Building Mongolian GIS system

13 International Exchanges Joint field surveys: since Visiting International conference on Environment and Sustainable Development of Mongolian Plateau and Surrounding Regions: - The first meeting: Ulaanbaatar The second meeting: Hohhot The third meeting: Nov 2007, IGSNRR of CAS, Beijing

14 2. Climate Changes and Impacts Precipitation of MN

15 Increment in Accumulated Temperature 10 of MN

16 10 8 Temperature & Precipitation: Hohhot vs Ulaabaatar 气温 ( ) 降水 )mm) 年份 0 呼和浩特 气温降水年份 气温 ( ) 降水 (mm) -6 Ulaabaatar 气温降水 0

17 温度 ( ) y 呼 = x R 2 = Hohhot Ten years temperature increase: Hohhot 0.51, Ulaanbaatar y 乌 = x R 2 = 年份 Ulaanbaatar 呼和浩特 Ul aabaat a Frost free days increased by 7~12 d in Northern Mongolia, a favorable tendency for crop growth.

18 Land cover of MN Land cover types Changes (%) Water body Sand, Bare land Desert Desert Steppe Dry Steppe Grassland, Steppe, Meadow Forested area Permanent snow, ice Total (sq. km.)

19 Permafrost changesh Pulse EKKOPRO groundpenetrating radar Permafrost degradation is observed in all the CALM and GTN-P boreholes of Mongolia. (Sharkhuu, 2003). Dagvadorjet al (2001) predicted that the area of permafrost will be shrunk to 24%-28% of Mongolia s territory by 2040 and 16%-25% by 2070.

20 Ulaanbaatar Impact of climate change on crop yield 谷物总产量 ( 千吨 ), 人口 ( 万人 ) 年份 人均谷物占有量 (kg/ 人 ) 谷物产量 ( 千吨 ) 万人 kg/ 人 面积 (hm , 总产量 ((T 1000) 单产 (T/hm 2 ) Hohhot 年份 1 面积 (*1000hm2) 产量 (*1000 吨 ) 单产 (t/hm2)

21 万头 Mongolia 年份 牛 绵羊 山羊 Impact of climate change on livestock 万头, 千人 年份 头 / 人 牛羊人口头 / 人 大牲畜 ( 1000 头 ), 羊 ( 头 ) Inner Mongolia 降水量 (mm) 年份 大牲畜羊降水

22 3. Human-natural system: Consumption and perceptions of ecosystem services: Mongolia vs Inner Mongolia Sampling Soum: 7 soums, 270 HH

23 Consumption items Mongolia Inner Mongolia kg/cap.yr kg/cap.yr Crops Wheat * Rice Potato Vegetables Sub-total Meat Mutton Beef Horse meat Sub-total Milk and products Fuel Fuelwood Dried grass Crop residue Animal dung

24 Nutrition intakes from actual consumptions and assessment Items Nutrition Intake Mongolia Caloric Protein Fat Inner Mongolia Carbohy drate Caloric Protein Fat 19, , Carbohy drate Plant (%) Animal (%) Intake reference 9,630 77* , Sufficiency (%) * Reference percentage: plant protein 70%, and animal protein 30%.

25 Perceptions of local stakeholders of ecosystem changes and conservation Inner Mongolia Mongolia Inner Mongolia Mongolia Inner Mongolia Mongolia Inner Mongolia Mongolia Inner Mongolia Mongolia Inner Mongolia Mongolia Inner Mongolia Mongolia Inner Mongolia Mongolia Inner Mongolia Mongolia Policy options for conservation M L T C R Grassland degradation Yes No Grassland conservation measures Yes No Conservation policy Known Unknown Using other energy Agree Disagree rather than fuelwood Willingness to pay Willing Unwilling Grassland functions F S N Grassland functions: F-fodder; S-soil conservation; N-natural beauty; U-unknown Causes of degradation: N-natural disaster; OG-overgrazing; F-fuel collection; C-cultivation; O-others Policy options for conservation: M-migration; L-limit livestock; T-tourism; C-cultivation of value added crops; R-remain as it is Grassland management entity: G-government; CO-co-managed by community and government; C-community; T-township; V-village committee U Causes of degradation N OG F C O Grassland management entity G CO C T V

26 Respondents knowledge and perceptions of grassland ecosystem conservation logistic regression results Question (X 2,P,R 2 ) Degradation of grassland (40.455,0.000, 0.317) Limiting animal raising (14.258, 0.014,0.106) Developing tourism (19.402,0.002, 0.129) Increasing value added crops(12.740,0.026, 0.09) Answer Yes 1 No 0 Willing 1 Unknown 2 Unwilling 3 Willing 1 Unknown 2 Unwilling 3 Willing 1 Unknown 2 Unwilling 3 Statistic variables Input variables GEN AGE EDU HHS LVR B S.E Wald P Exp(B) B S.E Wald P Exp(B) B S.E Wald P Exp(B) B S.E Wald P Exp(B)

27 Environmental and Socio- Economic problems Perceived by Respondents Index=1* P1+0.75* P2+0.5*P *P4 Issues Index Value (MN) Rank (MN) Rank (IMN) Index Value (IMN) Sand Storm Cultivation Tech. Drought Snowfall Cold Low income Pasture ins/dis,edu Disease of livestock Medical care Capital Information Insufficient water Transportation Animal rising tech

28 Drivers of Change Dynamics of population density

29 Population Changes (%) in of Study Area ot her 49% Dor nogovi 2% Dundgovi 2% Sel enge 4% Dar han 4% Tov 3% govi sumber 0. 5% Population to total (%) as of 2004 Ul aaubaat ar 36%

30 Dynamics of livestock density

31 Livestock changes (%) in of Study Area

32 4. Environmental consequence: soil erosion mechanism Mongolia vs Inner Mongolia 塔里亚特 - 草甸草原 Tsetserleg meadow grassland 巴彦淖尔 - 锦鸡儿 针茅草原景观 Bayantsogl - caragana 哈拉和林 锡林浩特 - 典型草原 Xilinhot typical grassland 卢斯 - 荒漠化草原 Lun-desert grassland 额勒济特 - 草原化荒漠 Erdehesant desert grassland 赛因山达 - 戈壁 Sampling sites: 137 Saynshand - Gobi Cs tracing method 正镶白旗 - 典型草原 Zhengxiangbai Qi Across forest-grassland, typical grassland, desert grassland, Gobi, typical grassland, degrading typical grassland, and mixture of farming f and herding

33 Scientists from the three Parties Enjoying hard-working 巴彦淖尔塔里亚特哈拉和林卢斯额勒济特赛因山达 Soil Samples: 95 MN, 84 IMN

34 Relations between green coverage and rate of soil erosion 侵蚀速率 /t km -2 a 森林草原盖度 70% 典型草原盖度 50-80% 荒漠化草原盖度 30% 草原化荒漠盖度 20% 戈壁盖度 <5% 典型草原盖度 60-80% 典型草原盖度 80% T 值 0 塔里亚特巴彦淖尔卢斯额勒济特赛因山达锡林浩特正镶白旗 Saynshand Mongolia Inner Mongolia Natural causes in MN vs human causes in IMN: Decreasing precipitation and green coverage vs overgrazing and population

35 Bayantsogl - caragana Hanahelin discarding arable land Response of herding vs farming to soil erosion

36 Rate of soil erosion using 137 Cs tracing method 采样点 137 Cs 面积活度土壤容重年侵蚀厚度侵蚀速率 (Bq m -2 ) (g/cm 3 ) (mm/a) (t km -2 a -1 ) B ± B ± B ± H ± Conclusions: grassland-light erosion; farmland-severe erosion, times erosion rate of grassland.

37 Future Perspectives

38 Future Perspectives Joint scientific research Joint survey on ecosystem-environment-socioeconomic consequences Mapping LUCC Remote Sensing Image and Landuse data base Key ecosystem services and consumption patterns Soil erosion modeling & land degradation drivers

39 Future Perspectives Exchanges and Capacity Building Training Joint master s & doctoral program Exchange of visiting scholars Conference, seminars, workshops

40 Thank You