Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona Tree-Ring Growth Response to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Transcription

1 .. 1. Proposed Contract with the Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN for Research on 'Detection of Forest Response to Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide' (Darrell C. West, P.I.) Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona Tree-Ring Growth Response to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Amount Requested: $60,000 Proposed Duration: 12 months - 12/01/85-11/30/86 Name of Principal Investigator~ Social Security No. Title: Research Associate in Dendrochronology Telephone: (602) or: (602) Department Affiliation: Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research Endorsements: o:;;; Principal Investigator Department ~ :l);i, J. R Research Assoc1ate in Directo Laboratory Dendrochronology of Tree-Ring Research Approving Administrat~ve Charles H. Peyton '&~!!~~ Vice President f~~earch Official Date:/~~$ Date: OCT

2 2 INTRODUCTION This document is a proposal for continuation of contract work by the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory project "Detection of forest response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide" (Darrell C. West-P.I.). The federal agency sponsoring the research is the Department of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Research Division. Research is in progress for the current contract period and this proposal is for work to be accomplished during the period 12/0l/85-ll/30/86. The principal investigator for the research at the University.of Arizona is Dr. Donald A. Graybill (Research Associate). Dr. Harold C. Fritts (Professor) will be available as a cooperating faculty scientist. Background through FY 1985 It was recently hypothesized that "- - subalpine vegetation generally, and upper treeline conifers in particular could now be exhibiting enhanced growth due directly to rising levels of atmospheric C0 2." (LaMarche~ Graybill, Fritts and Rose 1984). At the time the paper was written in late 1983 and early 1984 the available data that appeared to demonstrate this effect into the 1980's were ring widths of limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) from 3325 m. altitude on Mt. Jefferson, central Nevada and of Great Basin bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva D.K. Bailey) from m. altitude in the White Mountains of eastern California. Subsequent research was undertaken to increase the number of long climatically sensitive tree-ring chronologies that might show evidence of this phenomenon. A recent report (Graybill (1985) summarizes that research as of April, Figure 1 illustrates the current areal and elevational coverage of tree-ring chronologies that are now

3 I I I [ WHR o.(u.mo TCPo MAMo HERo l{,m I I I I i I oo Figure 1. Site collections. ABBREVIATION SITE NAME- ALM Almagre Mountain CAM Campito MOuntain GOL Mt. Goliath HER Hermit Lake IND Indian Garden MAM Mammoth Creek MTJ Mount Jefferson MTW ~ount Washington MWK Methuselah Walk SFP San Francisco Peaks SliP Sheep Mountain TCP Table Cliffs Plateau WHR Wild Horse Ridge SPU Spring M4ns upper SPL Spring Mtns lower HIL Hill m STATE co 64251C ~ 90251C co 64351C co 64151C NEV 28751L UT NEV NEV 80151C CA 99651L AZ 86451T CA 90151C UT UT NEV NEV NEV ALTITUDE Jll m m m 2805 m 2590 m 3300 m 3415 m 2900 m 3535 m 3450 m 3110 m 2805 m 3425 m 3000 m 3050 m SPECIES P.. ar~stata P. aristata P. aristata p. longaeva P. flexilis P. a:tistata

4 4 finalized or in process for the project. All have useful sample depth minimally from A.D to the early 1980's. Research Goals and Procedures 12/01/85-Tl/30/86 The ongoing purpose of this project is to develop new scientific understanding of the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on tree growth. Our contribution will be to continue to identify tree-ring records that may demonstrate growth changes due to atmospheric co 2 changes, as measured by annual ring-widths, quantify the nature of the effect and disseminate the research results. This will be accomplished by pursuing the goals described below. Goal I. Develop tree-ring records in the western U.S. that we consider promising in terms of evidencing a ring-width growth change since ~ 1850 due to increased atmospheric C0 2 The research to be undertaken in the next year will continue in part to identify sites with trees that may be relevant to the current problem. In some cases we are aware of sites that have not yet been collected. Intensive analysis of our data bank records has also turned up others that should be investigated. The principal investigator wi11 also travel to regional governmental offices to examine aerial photographs of remote areas with known and suspected tree-ring series of interest. The best types of sites for current purposes are those that are either known or likely to have the following characteristics: a) Trees with relatively great age, ca. 400 or more years b) No major stand disturbance due to logging, fire, construction, etc. c) Relatively low stand density d) Limited soil development e) Relatively cold and/or arid climate

5 5 Sites that m~et these criteria will be targeted for sampling or for updating if we have older series from them. The areas of primary interest are the Sangre de Cristo Range of northern New Mexico-Southern. Colorado, -. the Sawatch Range of central Colorado and the San Juan Mountains of southern Colorado. Other work in the Great Basin will possibly be di~ected at. new sites as well as recollection from older sites. This work is scheduled for Spring and Summer, 1986 as weather conditions permit. Labo.ratory processing will include data collected that year as well as from FY The dating and measuring of the cores for use in Tucson will be accomplished by an experienced research assistant according to standard procedures (Stokes and Smiley 1968). Final chronologies will be assembled by the principal investigator. Goal II. Furnish O.R.N.L. with cores for densitometric analysis from trees at sites that may evidence a co 2 fertilization effect. Duplicate sets of cores will be collected. One is first processed at the Tree-Ring Laboratory. Inspection of this data permits selection of a set for O.R.N.L. that should be free of distortion or other mechanical problems. They will be sent to O.R.N.L. as they become available and are needed there for analysis. Goal III. Furnish O.R.N.L. with index chronologies for dating samples. A chronology of the averaged annual index values for each site will be sent to O.R.N.L~ as processing permits. Goal IV. Statistically analyze the relationships of atmospheric co 2 concentration and the climatic variables of temperature and precipitation to ring-width index chronologies.

6 6 This is scheduled for winter of 1986 when a sufficient number of final tree-ring chronologies will have been assembled from one relatively homogeneous climatic region. Data from the central and southern Great Basin will be used initially. Further collection and processing of Rocky Mountain series should permit analysis of regional data there in the late summer-fall of All time series will be reviewed in terms of the need for ARMA modelling (Box and Jenkins 1976) and treated appropriately. Multiple linear regression and response function types of techniques (Fritts 1976) will be used to examine the relationships of the pertinent variables. Goal V. Develop a scientific report on the research effort to be given at the proposed 'International Symposium on Dendroecology' being organized by Dr. Gordon C. Jacoby (Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory). Deliverables (1) Monthly reports of research activity (December, 1985-November, 1986). (2) Tree-ring cores collected in western U.S. for densitometric analysis at O.R.N.L. (3) Final chronologies for dating the cores in (2) above. (4) Research paper for the proposed 'International Symposium on Dendroecology. 1

7 7 List of References Box, G.E.P. and G. M. Jenkins 1976 Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Halden-Day, San Francisco. Fritts, Harold C Tree Rings and Climate. Academic Press, London. Graybill, Donald A Western U.S. Tree-Ring Index Chronology Data for Detection of Arboreal Response. to Increasing Carbon Dioxide. No. 026 of the D.O.E. Response of Vegetation to Carbon Dioxide (green book).series. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson. LaHarche, Valmore C. Jr., Donald A. Graybill, Harold C. Fritts and Martin R. Rose 1984 Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Tree-Ring Evidence for Growth Enhancement in Natural Vegetation. Science 225: Stokes, Marvin A. and Terah L. Smiley 1968 An Introduction to Tree-Ring Dating. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.