Climate Change Policy Development Update on farm friendly policy advocacy JOHN BENNETT FARMER, ADVISOR SASKATCHEWAN SOIL CONSERVATION ASSOCIATION

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1 Climate Change Policy Development Update on farm friendly policy advocacy JOHN BENNETT FARMER, ADVISOR SASKATCHEWAN SOIL CONSERVATION ASSOCIATION

2 On the topic of Climate Change There is no denying it. We have a problem Climate change is real.

3 Climate Change White Paper Government of Saskatchewan There is no denying it. We have a problem; a problem that has to be solved for the sake of current and future generations. Climate change is real. Science tells us it is caused by factors that can be divided into two categories: factors related to natural processes and factors related to human activity.

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5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Fifth Assessment (Completed 2014) "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia". Human influence on the climate system is clear. It is extremely likely (95-100% probability) that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming between Pledges made as part of the Cancún Agreements are broadly consistent with cost-effective scenarios that give a "likely" chance (66-100% probability) of limiting global warming (in 2100) to below 3 C, relative to pre-industrial levels.

6 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Rio 1992 Established the UNFCCC COP (Council of Parties) Annual meetings since 1995, currently at COP22 Kyoto Protocol 1997 Paris Agreement 2015

7 Paris Agreement under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 2015 December Ratification by 55 UNFCCC Parties, accounting for 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Canada s commitment (October, 2016): Reduction of GHG by 30 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030

8 Canada's Emissions Breakdown by IPCC Sector (2014) Total National Emissions 733 Mt CO2e Source:

9 UNFCCC Recognized sinks as an important tool Soils and forests could be sources or sinks of GHG, particularly CO2. Regional differences presumed to exist globally and regionally. Based on scientific data from small plot research. Century Model Heavy reliance on by Canadian policy developers Outcomes are based on the assumptions used. SSCA felt that some assumptions needed to be tested.

10 Prairie Soil Carbon Balance Project Measure SOC change on a network of fields converted to low disturbance direct seeding in 1997 throughout Saskatchewan Fall 1996 (139 fields), Fall 1999 (137 fields), Fall 2005 (121 fields), and Fall 2011(83 fields) on benchmark microsites Number of fields in network decreased over time due to cooperator withdrawal and/or fundamental change in management (e.g. grass pasture)

11 PSCB - Learnings from a world class study. SOC is increasing on Saskatchewan farmland under direct seeding 0.23 Mg C/ha/yr or 0.38 ton CO 2 /ac/yr Increasing to at least 40 cm (16 ) depth Changes are greater than expected New information and ends controversy on soil sink value Extremely important for claims of positive environmental performance including low carbon footprint It is not practical to measure SOC change on individual fields

12 Soil Sinks Again recognized nationally and internationally as a mitigation tool Paris Agreement Canada ratified October 2016 Recognizing the importance of the conservation and enhancement, as appropriate, of sinks and reservoirs of the greenhouse gases referred to in the Convention Parties should take action to conserve and enhance, as appropriate, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases as referred to in Article 4, paragraph 1(d), of the Convention, including forests.

13 Soil Sinks Again recognized nationally and internationally as a mitigation tool Vancouver Declaration First Ministers Conference March 2016 First Ministers committed to: Work together to enhance carbon sinks, including in agriculture and forestry, taking into account international best practices and accounting standards, to recognize their contribution to mitigating GHG emissions, and toward the establishment of a pan-canadian offset protocols framework and verified carbon credits that can be traded internationally.

14 Climate Change White Paper Government of Saskatchewan There is no denying it. We have a problem; a problem that has to be solved for the sake of current and future generations. Climate change is real. Science tells us it is caused by factors that can be divided into two categories: factors related to natural processes and factors related to human activity. We have to take steps now to limit climate change: this fact is indisputable.

15 What s at stake for the Saskatchewan farmer? 8.3 million tonnes of annual CO2 storage A potential value of $30 per ton, some $250 million per year. Increased cost to farming operations.

16 Working premise: If emitters of GHGs are penalized through the imposition of a carbon tax on pollution or emission reduction limits, it is reasonable that those who are removing GHGs, through carbon sequestration or capture, should be compensated in equal measure.

17 Our objective: To facilitate the return of as much of this value as possible to growers. This includes: grower ownership, influencing the design of the Registry/Bank, and ensuring continuing research to reinforce the science and the value

18 Strength in Numbers - The supporting organizations in this advocacy

19 Focus of the Advocacy Soil sinks officially acknowledged Strong science, international acceptance Baseline year 2005 has huge implications Business-as-usual (BAU) concept Tradeable credit maintaining value to the grower

20 Soil sinks officially acknowledged Holding governments to their commitments Paris Agreement Vancouver Declaration Government of Saskatchewan Climate Change White Paper

21 Baseline year 2005 proposed

22 Million Metric Tonnes Business As Usual (BAU) Baseline Tradable? 15 First Counting Period Baseline 10 Tradable? Ratification Baseline 5 0 0% Baseline -5 BAU Offsets Govn't of Canada -7 *Marrakesh Tonnes (source) 1990 Basline Years

23 Business-as-Usual (BAU) concept Artificial construct from environmentalists. It ignores the very high importance that the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement place on sinks and the need to maintain and increase those sinks if a long term solution to climate warming is to be found.

24 Options to return value Carbon tax rebate Combination Carbon offset market Examption or rebate B.C. fuel tax examption Uncertainte in markets Chicago Climate exchange Alberta system London Carbon exchange California Carbon exchange China Failed Failed Struggling Struggling?

25 Moving forward easier with consistent messaging

26 If emitters of GHGs are penalized through the imposition of a carbon tax or emission reduction limits, it is reasonable that those who remove GHGs, through carbon sequestration or capture, should be compensated in equal measure. The Carbon Advisory Committee wants to ensure that soil carbon sequestration is fully recognized and rewarded for its contribution to climate change reduction goals.

27 In all of the discussion about soil sinks in Canada, the single most important fact is that the basic science is well established, conclusive and respected by soil scientists around the world. The 0.38 tons of CO2 per acre being sequestered every year by Saskatchewan growers using minimum or zero till (direct seeding). More research is also required to establish the management practices that will maximize carbon sequestration in hay and pasture land.

28 Saskatchewan growers using minimum or zero till (direct seeding) are sequestering 8.75 million new tons of CO2 every year on more than 23 million acres of farmland. That is the equivalent of taking 1.83 million cars off the road. These figures come from the Prairie Soil Carbon Balance (PSCB) Project a collaboration of the SSCA and soil scientists with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada - that analyzed thousands of samples, taken at intervals over a 15-year period, from farms in all of the soil zones across Saskatchewan s grain growing regions.

29 The federal and provincial governments agreed, in the Vancouver Declaration on March 3, 2016, to establish a pan-canadian offset protocols framework and verified carbon credits for carbon sinks that could be traded internationally.

30 Grower ownership of the soil carbon offset, and the option to bank that offset for sale at some future date, are the two critical elements necessary to ensure a fair return to farmers. The Alberta carbon offset trading experience, which required the use of aggregators for the sale of offsets, is a clear illustration of a system that did not provide a fair return to producers.

31 We propose that a Soil Carbon Registry/Bank, for growers to register and to hold their offsets until they are sold, could be developed in Saskatchewan by a partnership between producers and the Saskatchewan Crop Insurance Corporation (SCIC). Saskatchewan growers will own a majority of the soil carbon offsets created in Canada and have a long history of involvement in the research and policy development for soil carbon. SCIC has experience with soil carbon offsets and a long working relationship with producers so they would be a natural partner in the development of the model.

32 It is important to note that the Carbon Advisory Committee is not advocating for either a carbon tax or a carbon trading system. Grower ownership of the soil carbon offset, and the option to bank that offset for sale at some future date, are the two critical elements necessary to ensure a fair return to farmers.

33 Much of the previous scientific thinking about soil sequestration of CO2 was based on small plot research and incorporated into soil system computer models, the most notable one being the Century Model. The PSCB Project was initiated to move the science from small plots to the field scale. One of the early assumptions made in the Century Model, now proven false by the PSCB Project, was that carbon sequestration into the soil under zero or minimum tillage would decline over time and that soil would become saturated with the CO2 after a period of 20 to 30 years.

34 The Alberta carbon offset trading experience, which required the use of aggregators for the sale of offsets, is a clear illustration of a system that did not provide a fair return to producers. We propose that a Soil Carbon Registry/Bank, for growers to register and to hold their offsets until they are sold, could be developed in Saskatchewan by a partnership between producers and the Saskatchewan Crop Insurance Corporation (SCIC). The Soil Carbon Registry/Bank should be self-financing, with no cost to government over the long term.

35 The protocol to define a soil carbon offset or removal, whether it is developed by Canada or Saskatchewan, needs to be one that it is based on science and is accepted by international regulators. there will likely be serious consideration for an exemption from a carbon tax for the agricultural sector (as is the case in British Columbia). Significant research and analysis will be required so that growers can fully understand the financial implications of any potential national carbon tax exemption compared to a potential revenue stream through a carbon offset program. Any carbon tax exemption must consider all farm inputs, not just fuel alone.

36 Questions and Discussion

37 Strength in Numbers - The supporting organizations in this advocacy