Ecosystem Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies for a Changing Climate

Transcription

1 Ecosystem Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies for a Changing Climate David W. Wolfe Cornell University dww5@cornell.edu

2 The New Plant Hardiness Zone Map Climate envelopes affecting biosphere are shifting (maps based on minimum winter temperatures; prior 15 years of weather station record) Source:

3 1990 Hardiness Zones Average of the lowest temperature reached in the 5 previous years. 6

4 2006 Hardiness Zones 6

5 It is not just weather instruments telling us the climate is changing. The living world (plants, insects, birds and other animals) are responding to change. For example, in the Northeastern US. Apples are blooming 8 days earlier than they were in the 1960s Grapes are blooming 6 days earlier Lilacs are blooming 4 days earlier [Source: Wolfe DW et al Internat J Biometeor 49: ] National Phenology Network:

6 As each species responds uniquely to climate change: How will this affect the synchrony between organisms? Plants and pollinators? Number in Population Natural enemies of insect pests? DAYS

7 Expect the unexpected: More frost and freeze damage in a warmer winter world? Apple blossoms under snow

8 Projected Change in Snow Cover Days (days with fewer than 30 days of snow cover) Deer benefit from less snow because they can feed on more exposed vegetation all winter. N2O flux Snow cover affects soil temperatures and microbial activity that determines nitrogen retention in soils and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) release into the atmosphere.

9 Lake Champlain Ice-In Dates: days later over 190 years 33 times lake has not frozen over ( ) 78% since 1950; 54% since 1970 Data from NWS Burlington,

10 Climate Change & Coldwater Fisheries Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis)

11 Plants respond directly to rising CO 2 ; Plants and soils sequester carbon Duke Forest North Carolina

12 More Summer Droughts May Slow Growth: -Warmer, longer summers will increase water use by vegetation (potential evapotranspiration) -Summer rainfall not projected to increase Seasonal Temperature Rainfall Hayhoe et al Climate Dynamics 28:

13 Many plant species respond posi=vely to rising CO 2, but not all plants are equally desirable Poison ivy growth increase at Duke FACE ring = +149%, and more allergenic. (Mohan et al Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 103(24): ).

14 And high CO 2 reduces herbicide efficacy e.g. Ziska et al. Weed Science 2004 (Ziska et al Weed Sci 52: ; Ziska et al Weed Sci 47: )

15 Climate change will forever alter the fabric of our forests and other natural landscapes with implica=ons for ecosystem services

16 Ecosystems will be disassembling and re- assembling in new ways. Will species be able to move and adapt to climate change? Do we manage for stability, or facilitate change? Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: Iverson et al MITI. 13: What is an invasive species in this context?

17 Availability of migra0on corridors Suitable habitats Concurrent movement of forage and prey Will be complicated by other landscape changes such as roads, ci0es, and habitat fragmenta0on Source: P. Curtis

18 Some Species at Risk, Others May Benefit Likely to benefit White-tailed deer (warmer winters, less snow cover of winter vegetation) Warm-water fish (e.g., bass) Marginally overwintering pests (insect, weed, disease) Some invasive species (e.g., hemlock wooly adelgid, kudzu) Productivity of some hardwood tree species (due to longer growing season, higher CO2, but dependent on other environmental factors) At risk High elevation spruce-fir forests, Adirondack alpine and boreal communities Cold water fish (e.g., brook trout) Wetlands and wetland species (fate will depend on future rainfall and hydrology patterns) Species with poor dispersal ability Species at southern fringe of range, with little tolerance to higher temps or drought

19 Warmer winters = more pest pressure Many insects benefit: better overwinter survival; more generations per season; northward expansion of range Invasive weeds benefit Flea beetle Mountain Pine beetle Kudzu

20 Days Below -4 F (dark orange= potential spread of Kudzu range) Business as usual Lower emissions Wolfe et al Mitgation Adaptation Strategies Global Change 13:

21

22 Adapta=on Strategies for Natural Ecosystems Minimize other stressors (e.g., invasive species, eutrophication, acid rain, etc.). Maintain healthy ecosystems more tolerant or better able to adapt to climate change Manage to maintain ecosystem function and biodiversity rather than attempting to maintain the exact mix of species present today Facilitate natural adaptation by minimizing habitat fragmentation, protecting riparian zones and other corridors for dispersal and migration Institutionalize a coordinated monitoring and data sharing effort with easy user access, and associated decision support tools

23 Agriculture and Forestry Mitigation: What Is the Potential? McKinsey&Co, 2009 Pathways to a Low Carbon Economy The soil C sink alone: Increasing soil organic C by 10% in top 1 m by 2100: 240 Pg (1 x ) C by 2100, equivalent to reducting atm CO2 by 112 ppm. --Rattan Lal, Ohio State Univ

24 Acknowledgements Collaborators Climate Science Art Degaetano, Lee Tryhorn, Radley Horton, Katharine Hayhoe, Cynthia Rosenzweig Websites: www. nyserda.ny.gov/climaid Agriculture and Natural Resources Jonathan Comstock, Keith Paustian, Steve Ogle, Peter Woodbury, Zia Ahmed, Alan Lakso, Ian Merwin, Curt Petzoldt, Larry Chase, Susan Riha, Rebecca Schneider, Holly Menninger, David Weinstein, Vern Grubinger Communication Lauren Chambliss