Climate Change and the Columbia Basin

Transcription

1 Climate Change and the Columbia Basin Watershed Governance Symposium June 18, 2015 Columbia River Treaty Round Table Greg Utzig Kutenai Nature Investigations Ltd. Nelson, BC CANADA

2 Climate Change Projects l Vulnerability/ Resilience Assessment of West Kootenay Forest Ecosystems q l Funded by BC Government MoFLNRO - Future Forest Ecosystem Scientific Council Climate Change Conservation Planning (Connectivity & S Rockies) q Funded by ENGOs Wildsight and Conservation Northwest Climate Information l l l l Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) U of Victoria Climate Western North America (ClimateWNA) BC MoFLNRO, UBC, U of A Edmonton Climate Impacts Group (CIG) U of WA International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2

3 Weather and Climate Variability Climate Change Climate Oscillations Multi-decadal oscillations in regional climate (e.g. PDO, NAO) Long-term trends or major shifts in climate (mulitdecadal to century-scale) Climate Variability Short term: (years to decadal) rises and falls about the trend line (ENSO) From: Reasoner CBT 3

4 Probability of occurrence Increase in Mean Temperature Loss of Coldest Weather Historical Climate New Climate More Hot Weather New Record Hot Weather Cold Average Hot Adapted from: Reasoner

5 European Summer Temperatures ( anomalies relative to mean) coldest years 5 warmest years From: Coumou and Ramstorf

6 Frequency of occurrence Increase in Variance (more extremes) More Cold Weather Historical Climate New Climate More Hot Weather Cold New Record Cold Weather Average Hot New Record Hot Weather Adapted from: Reasoner

7 Frequency of occurence Increase in Mean Temperature & Variance Historical Climate Reduced, but Continuing Cold Weather New Climate Much More Hot Weather and Record Hot Weather Cold Average Hot Adapted from: Reasoner

8 Decadal Summer Temperature Anomalies Northern Hemisphere Land ( reference period) Frequency of Occurrence Adapted from: Hansen et al Temperature Anomalies ( o C) 8

9 Climatic Extremes Heat waves Drought High intensity rainstorms/ flooding Windstorms/ tonadoes Lightening storms Hail storms Ice storms Early spring heat/ late frost combinations Grand Forks, BC - July, 2012 Crossfields, AB - July, 2012 Mechanisms? Jet Stream Modifications Increased amplitude Reduced rate of movement Weather systems stall Calgary & SE BC - June, 2013 High Low Boundary Sentinel High From: D. Vettese 2013 WN & N. Short,Sr. - FAS 9

10 Climatic Extremes 2012 Example Monthly Precipitation/ Rapid Snowmelt - Johnson s Landing June Precipitation: 1901 to : 206 mm Precipitation (mm) Maximum (1963): 120 mm Mean : 61 mm (preliminary data, subject to correction) Impacts 4 people killed 4 houses destroyed 6 properties damaged/ loss of access Community water system destroyed Main road destroyed Damage to utilities Ongoing future risks TMTV Increased Soil Moisture Decreased Soil Strength Landslide (July 12, 2012) 10

11 We Are the Cause CO2 levels are now higher than anytime in at least 2.1m years May (+3ppm/yr) From: Petit 2000 and CO2now.org 11

12 General Circulation Models (GCMs) Global Climate Models l Mathematical representations of the global climate system 3D pixels representing atmospheric conditions at various elevations around the earth through time 12 From: IPCC AR4 WG1

13 Modeling - Future Projections Greenhouse Gas Emissions various potential scenarios Scenarios From: IPCC 2007 and Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009 Current emissions exceed all projections 13

14 Projected Changes for the 2050s (A1B scenario) Temperature Winter Spring Summer Fall Precipitation Winter Spring Summer Fall From: Schnorbus et al

15 Variability: Past vs. Potential Future for the Columbia Basin Note that the projected annual temperature shifts far exceed historical variability (20 th century), while the projected precipitation shifts do not. From: Murdock PCIC-CBT 15

16 Glacial Retreat From: Menounos et al CBT & Vaux. BC Parks Short-term increased summer flows Long-term decreased summer flows Increased stream temperatures 16

17 Reduction in Snow Cover April s vs. 2050s (SWE) Current Climate 2020s (+1.7 C) 2040s (+2.25 C) From: Schnorbus et al & Murdock et al VIC model 17

18 Snow Water Equivalent and Watershed Regime Shifts From: Hamlet et al VIC model 18

19 Projected Changes in 100-year Flood Magnitudes From: Hamlet et al VIC model 19

20 Projected Changes in Low Flows From: Hamlet et al VIC model & Carver CBT 20

21 Changes in Seasonal Runoff Winter Spring Summer Fall % Changes from 1970s to 2050s (mean A1B scenario) 21 From: Schnorbus et al VIC model

22 Projected 100 year peak flows Columbia River at Revelstoke Boise River at Boise Cold Snowmelt Dominated Warmer Snowmelt Dominated From: Salathe et al VIC model regioal down-scaling 22

23 Projected 100 year peak flows Skagit River at Mt. Vernon From: Salathe et al VIC model regioal down-scaling 23

24 Annual Area Burned (ha) yr Running Average Annual Area Burned North West Kootenay Fire History Area Burned 0 Year years 50-90, yr Running Average Annual Area Burned Annual Area Burned (ha) South 0 Touchstones Archives, Nelson Year 24

25 Changes in Area Burned Kutetl 2003 Sitkum 2007 Jordan

26 Insects/ Pathogens /Decline Syndromes l l Tree decline drought/ resistance Bark Beetles q l Defoliators, blights, pathogens q l Mountain pine beetle, spruce bark beetle, Ips beetles, Douglas-fir beetle.. Spruce budworm, dothistroma, larch needle cast, root disease Complex Interactions q (A) Regions (B) Elevation (C) Stem diameter (D) Genus (E) Fire return interval From: Raffa et al Birch die-back, yellow cedar, 5-needle pines From: van Mantgem et al

27 Cold-Water Fish Guilds Currently Suitable Habitat for Juvenile Bull Trout Salmon ~ 1.6 C Increase Favourable Stressful Fatal Dan Isaak, USFS, Boise, ID & Peter Tschaplinski, BC MoF ~ 5.0 C Increase Potential Climate Change Impacts Habitat loss for cold water species, potential increase for warm water Loss of streamside vegetation due to fire/ insects Competition from invaders Reduced low flows - dewatering (loss of glaciers) Change in peak flows affecting spawning, egg incubation and rearing habitat Increased sedimentation from storm events Increased flood events degrading habitat Fragmentation of habitats Lake thermocline modifications Increased summer and winter fish kills in lakes 27

28 Changes in Seasonal Flows Columbia River at Keenleyside Dam Higher winter flows Earlier snowmelt Higher peakflow Earlier peakflow Lower summer/fall flows From: Schnorbus et al VIC model & Smith 2013 BC Hydro 5 28

29 Variability Across the Basin (at Corra Linn) (at The Dalles) (at Parker) Yakima River A1B B1 (Monthly - October to September) From: Hamlet et al VIC model 29

30 Variability Across the Canadian Basin From: Werner et al VIC model 30

31 Biogeoclimatic (BEC) Zones By: Daniel Mosquin Engelmann Spruce Subalpine Fir Ponderosa Pine Interior Cedar Hemlock Grasslands/ Sage Brush 31

32 Ecosystem Units as Bioclimate Envelopes Cold / wet Biogeoclimatic Zones x o Maritime X? o Continental Warm / dry Adapted from: Hamann and Wang 2006 & Roberts and Hamann

33 Alpine Alpine parkland Wet subalpine forest Dry subalpine forest Coastal hemlock Transitional coast/ interior hemlock Montane/sub-boreal spruce forest Wet interior cedar/ hemlock Moist interior cedar/ hemlock Dry interior cedar hemlock Grand fir/ Douglas-fir Wet Douglas-fir Dry Douglas-fir Ponderosa pine savanah Grassland/ steppe A Range of Projected Bioclimate Envelopes Warm/ Moist West Kootenays Hot/ Wet Very Hot/ Dry Original data from: Roberts and Hamann, U of A 33

34 Habitat projections for Ponderosa Pine Current 2020s 34 From: Laura Gray 2010

35 Habitat projections for Ponderosa Pine Current 2050s 35 From: Laura Gray 2010

36 Habitat projections for Ponderosa Pine Current 2080s 36 From: Laura Gray 2010

37 Ecosystem Response Ecosystem Range Shifts Ecosystem Re-organization 37

38 CO 2 Emission Reductions are the ONLY solution. Thank You kootenayresilience.org We have options, but past is not one of them Sauchyn and Kulshreshtha 2008, p.295 Times have changed no longer is our goal sustainable development. our goal must now be sustainable survival Blackstock 2008, p.15 38