Why can t we just put all the fires out? Craig Goodell Fire Ecologist BLM OR/WA USFS PNW/AK

Transcription

1 Why can t we just put all the fires out? Craig Goodell Fire Ecologist BLM OR/WA USFS PNW/AK

2 Ecosystem: An array of organisms and their physical environment, all of which interact through a one-way flow of energy and a cycling of materials. Most of the energy originally fixed by the autotrophs is lost to the environment as metabolic heat. Heat Energy Wildland Fire

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4 Succession Results from Disturbance. Scale, frequency and Severity of disturbance is important.

5 HISTORICAL FIRE REGIMES Low, mixed and high fire severity regimes (Mixed) Slide courtesy of Richy Harrod

6 PVG Dry Forest Moist Forest Cold Forest Fire Return Interval 15 Years Years Years Seral Predominant Tree Longevity (Years) Status Tree Species Typical Maximum Early Ponderosa pine Mid Douglas-fir Late Grand fir Early Western larch Mid Western white pine Late Grand fir Early Lodgepole pine Mid Engelmann spruce Late Subalpine fir

7 Fire Regime Drivers Climate and Weather Climate what grows where Weather annual productivity and fuel moisture dynamics Plant Community Composition and Structure Fuel amount and arrangement Type of fire

8 Low Severity Fire

9 Mosaic of High and Mixed Severity Fire Photo source: Richy Harrod

10 A full suppression strategy for wildfire was adopted by the USFS after a series of very large, destructive wildfires in 1910

11 Ecological Fire Workload LANDFIRE data products for existing vegetation type and MFRI were used to approximate the annual average ecological fire workload for the State of Colorado. The native vegetation types and associated fire regimes across the entire state of Colorado were analyzed to calculate the average number of acres that could be expected to naturally burn annually in Colorado

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13 Ecological Fire Workload Based on this analysis, it would be expected that under natural ecological conditions without human activities (e.g., fire suppression, grazing, timber harvest, landscape fragmentation, etc.), 1,154,167 acres on average would burn in Colorado annually.

14 Wildland Fire Acres in Colorado Wildfire Prescribed Fire Wildland Fire Use Annual Total ,750 76, , ,637 23, , ,068 41, , ,014 19,769 4,824 43, ,502 10,739 23, , ,655 22,249 3,519 53, ,996 47,788 9,599 82, ,390 48,213 7,175 82, ,484 36, , ,739 35, , ,966 43,048 2, , ,456 25, , ,788 17, , ,167 29, , ,445 8, , ,145 16, ,446 Total 2,642,218 Average RX acres 31,430 Annual Average 165,138 Source: National Interagency Fire Center

15 Excess Energy Stored in Colorado s Vegetated Ecosystems Ecological Fire Workload =1,154,167 acres/year Actual Average Fire Occurrence = 165,138 acres/year Just 14.3% of the Ecological Fire Workload

16 Photo Taken 1890 Photo Taken 2010

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19 Virtually all of Colorado s lodgepole pine is affected in addition to other forest types.

20 Fuel Profile Hazard Associated with MPB Mortality Greatest Hazard Tree Crown in Red and Dead Stage Needle Fall Leading to Snag Condition Surface Fuel Loadings Increase with Tree Fall Lowest Snag Stage Years Since Beetle Attack (Approximate)

21 Ips Beetle Piñon Pine Southwest US

22 Suppressing Wildland Fires without somehow managing the accumulating energy load will result in undesirable outcomes.

23 We Have Crossed a Threshold Excess energy stored in vegetated ecosystems. 86% per year X 100 years. Climate Change longer and more extreme fire seasons. The Wildfire Paradox (Calkin, et al., 2014)

24 0.5 miles WUI Community Residents Firewise Activities Full Suppression Mechanical Treatments

25 Community Protection Well-designed fuelbreaks and safe areas protect the community. Defensible Space Proper management of vegetation surrounding the home reduces the wildfire threat. Access Good access helps Emergency responders arrive in a timely manner. Evacuation Prepared communities can evacuate safely and effectively. Appropriate home construction and maintenance resists ignition

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30 Research has shown that fire is one of the best tools land managers have for protecting communities and maintaining ecosystem health and integrity.

31 We have found it to be impossible to remove or withhold fire from fire dependent ecosystems, yet we continue to expand our communities into these ecosystems. We are now being forced to make some difficult choices regarding wildfires, public safety, prescribed fire, and mechanical fuels treatments.

32 It will take all of us working together if we are to be successful in reducing the impacts of wildfires on the citizens and landscapes of this country. Collectively we need to do the right things, even if they may be difficult or nontraditional. Now is the time to be bold and take action.

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