Willow Biomass Production, Potential and Benefits

Transcription

1 Willow Biomass Production, Potential and Benefits T.A. Volk, P. Castellano, L.P. Abrahamson, L. Smart, E.H. White, T. Buchholz and K. Cameron, SUNY-ESF Forest Biorefinery: Establishing a path forward to cellulosic ethanol and other bio-products October 9-10, 2007, Syracuse, NY

2 Outline Background on renewable energy and perennial crops Woody biomass availability Natural forests Willow biomass crops Willow biomass crop production Willow biomass production life cycle analysis Economics of willow biomass crops

3 Renewable Energy in the U.S. 85% of our primary energy comes from fossil fuels { } Biomass (42%) (EIA 2007)

4 National Biomass Supply Assessment of whether land resources in the US could sustainably produce over 1 billion tons of biomass Enough biomass to replace about 30% of the country s petroleum consumption

5 National Biomass Supply 377 Over 1.3 billion dry tons annually from forest and agricultural land that is currently not being utilized 368 million odt from forests 998 million odt from agricultural land 377 odt projected to come from perennial energy crops (Perlack et al. 2005)

6 Woody Biomass Feedstocks Wood residues from primary and secondary wood product manufacturers, urban residues Low value wood from forests can be harvested sustainably Willow biomass crops can be grown on under utilized open land

7 NY s Forest Resources New York State Land Cover Legend NYS Land Cover Water Forest 19,557,155 ac. Pasture/Hay 6,033,572 ac. Row Crops 1,694,229 ac. Miles Map Created for the Willow Biomass Project Date: June 14, million acres of forest land 15.4 million acres of timberland 774 million tons of standing biomass Annual growth 3X greater than harvest 15 pulp mills in the mid 1980s, only 3 remain in operation Employment in forest industry has declined from 91,400 in 1979 to 61,500 in 2001 Limited markets for low value trees Exasperates in poor forest management, especially high grading

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10 Current removals + bioenergy harvests < 70% of Net Annual Growth

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13 Willow Biomass Crops on Marginal Agricultural Land New York State Land Cover Legend NYS Land Cover Water Forest 19,557,155 ac. Pasture/Hay 6,033,572 ac. Row Crops 1,694,229 ac. Land cover types in NY Miles Map Created for the Willow Biomass Project Date: June 14, 2005 Over 7.5 million acres of agricultural land cover in NY About million acres are under utilized Willow biomass crops could be an alternative crop for farmers and landowners Produces environmental and rural development benefits in addition to bioenergy and/or bioproducts

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15 Criteria for Selecting Forest Lands Started with all forest land from the NLCD (National Land Cover Dataset) Removed the following areas: Tax parcels restricted from timber harvesting (e.g. State/County Parks, Forest Preserve etc.) Wetlands from the NYS DEC database Bodies of water from the NYS hydrography database Tax parcels less than 5 acres in size Result is timberland

16 Timberland within 25 miles of Syracuse Over 584,000 acres of forest cover Remove land due to: Restricted use Small parcel size Slope >20% Wetlands or water bodies Result is over 409,000 acres of timberland (Castellano et al. submitted)

17 Technically Available Woody Biomass from Timberland in a 25 mile radius around Syracuse, NY Potential to sustainably supply over 245,000 dry tons of woody biomass per year from over 409,000 acres of timberlands Yield is 0.6 odt/ac Need to consider socioeconomic factors such as landowner preferences, economics, parcel size and location relative to other parcels (Castellano et al. submitted)

18 Criteria for Selecting Agricultural Land for Willow Production Areas classified as agricultural land cover in the NLCD (National Land Cover Database) Areas classified as agricultural land use from county tax parcel databases Areas with slope less than 8% calculated from a digital elevation model Areas with soils in a farmland classification from SSURGO NRCS Database Removed areas classified as wetlands from the NYS DEC database Removed parcels less than 5 acres

19 Agricultural land within 25 miles of Syracuse Over 440,000 acres of agricultural land cover Removed land due to: Other tax role classification (217, 532 ac) Slope <8% (54,396 ac) Designated wetlands (3,043 ac) Parcel size (677 ac) 167,773 acres of acceptable agricultural land (Castellano et al. submitted)

20 (Castellano et al. submitted)

21 Socio-economic Potential Amount of technically available resource will vary due to a range of socioeconomic factors: Market prices for other energy sources (coal, oil, natural gas) Prices for biomass for other uses (i.e. pulp logs, saw logs, mulch) Landowners management objectives Competition from other biomass users Incentives and policies that support renewable energy Pubic opinions about biomass resources and their use

22 Willow Biomass Production Cycle Site Preparation Three-year old after coppice Planting Harvesting One-year old after coppice Coppice First year growth Early spring after coppicing

23 Why Willow? Three-year old willow in Tully, NY High biomass production potential Produces uniform feedstock Easily established with unrooted cuttings Resprouts vigorously after each harvest Limited insect and pest problems Wide range of genetic variability

24 Planting Stock Harvesting one year old whips for planting stock 25 cm long dormant cuttings

25 Commercial Planting Stock Production Shrub willows in nursery beds at Double A Vineyards, Fredonia, NY. More than 75 acres of willow nursery beds planted since 2005 at Double A Willow for commercial planting stock production Supplemental supplies from fields planted as biomass crops Storage facilities for 10 million cuttings completed, enough for about 700 ha yr -1

26 Planting First commercial planting of willow biomass crops in North America occurred in the Tug Hill region of NY in 2006 by Catalyst Renewables

27 Three Year Old Willow Biomass Crops

28 Cut and Chip Harvesting Systems New Holland forage harvester being developed to harvest willow biomass crops Harvesting occurs during the dormant season to ensure vigorous regrowth Modified agricultural equipment is used to cut and chip willow biomass in a single pass

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30 LCA of Willow Crops - Boundaries (Heller et al. 2003)

31 Primary Energy Use Over 22 Years

32 EROI for Different Yield Scenarios (Keoleian and Volk 2005)

33 Yields from SUNY-ESF Varieties Bred in 1999 Harvested - Two years post-coppice BIOMASS - Top 20 Family ID 15 clones with greater yield than SV1 top clone had 40% greater yield than SV1

34 Management Scenarios (Heller et al. 2003)

35 System Biomass and Other Power Systems Net Energy Ratio Global Warming Potential (kg CO 2 eq/mwh elec ) Willow Biomass (-96.1%) -Gasifier Willow Biomass (-94.7%) - Direct fire BIPV (-94.0) Wind (-99.0) US Grid Ave (Keoleian and Volk 2005)

36 Willow Biomass - Economics Completing cash flow model for willow biomass crop production and delivery to end user Includes: Land rental Site preparation Planting, maintenance and harvesting 50 mile delivery of willow biomass Seven three year rotations Removal of willow crop at end of seven years Assumes a $30/green ton price at the plant gate

37 Economics of Willow Base Case US $/acre ,000-1, Year

38 Economics of Willow Base Case Realistic Optimistic (Revenues +10%; Expenditures -10%) Pessimistic (Revenues -10%; Expenditures +10%) Back to Input-Output Sheet 2,000 1,000 US $/acre 0-1,000-2, NPV - $197/acre IRR 8% Year

39 Distribution of Expenses over 22 Years 100% 6% Stock removal 90% Transport 80% 29% 70% Harvest 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 26% 3% 19% 2% 15% Fertilizer Establishment Administration Land cost and insurance

40 Economics of Willow With CREP $100/ac rental rate and 50% establishment cost share 1, US $/acre Year

41 Economics of Willow With CREP $100/ac rental rate and 50% establishment cost share Realistic Optimistic (Revenues +10%; Expenditures -10%) Back to Input- Output Sheet Pessimistic (Revenues -10%; Expenditures +10%) 6,000 5,000 US $/acre 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, , Year NPV - $1,617/acre IRR 23%

42 Now is the Time for Action The stone age did not end for lack of stone, and the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil. Sheikh Zaki Yamani, former oil minister for Saudi Arabia

43 Acknowledgements USDA CSREES NYS Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) NYS Dept. Agriculture and Markets NYSTAR US Dept. of Interior