Cost-Benefit Analysis of Forest Investment Projects

Transcription

1 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Forest Investment Projects Methods for Estimating Non-Market Value of Forest Gengyang TU Laboratoire d Economie Forestière

2 Methods for estimating non market value of forest Stated preference (SP) method Choice modeling Contingent evaluation Revealed preference (RP) method Travel cost method Hedonic pricing method

3 1 Introduction 2 Theoretical framework 3 Method 4 Discussion 5 Appendix

4 Introduction Theoretical framework One site model The random utility model

5 3 Method 3.1 Options for applying TCM Zonal travel cost method (ZTCM) Individual travel cost method (ITCM) 3,1,3 Random utility method (RUM)

6 Details of estimation steps Step 1. Identification of the site(s) Step 2. Identify the activities and their seasons Step 3. Sampling methods. (on-site/off-site, one site /multiple sites, population of interest) Step 4. Specify the model (list of variables) Step 5. Questionnaires designing (examples) Step 6. Treat the collected information and construct the database (multiple purpose/activities/days trip) Step 7. Estimation (function forms, distributions) Step 8. calculate the consumer surplus

7 4 Discussion 4.1 Limitations of the TCM 4.2 Advantages and shortcoming of each method 4.3 Further literatures

8 Appendix Simple exercises The recreational value of La Forêt de Haye, Nancy (ZTCM) The recreational value of La Forêt de Haye, Nancy (ITCM) The recreational value of La Forêt de Haye, Nancy (RUM) Research examples Garcia, S. and Jacob, J. Revue d etude en Agriculture et Environment Abildtrup, et al., Spatial preference heterogeneity in forest recreation in France Useful knowledge Poisson distribution negative binomial distribution Other extended TCM models (Further literature)

9 Survey of July,2013 Objective and design To investigate the non-market value of urban green spaces for local population through their residential location choice. Grand Nancy citizens information: recreation, personal and housing characteristics. (RP) A choice experiment is developed. (SP) D-optimal designs with SAS (Kuhfeld 2010) D-efficient design with 12 different choice sets of 3 alternatives. Each respondent repeat 3 times

10 Survey of July,2013 Survey Our face to face survey is realized in numbers public places of Nancy city. The respondents are all adults (+18 years old) who live in Nancy city and its agglomeration which is our study area. 226 respondents accepted our survey and 180 among them were sufficiently complete to be used for our analysis.

11 Exercises for the guideline Choice modeling Travel cost hedonic pricing Results of choice modeling Abildtrup,J. Garcia,S. TU,G.(2013) Stated preferences of French citizens for urban green spaces and forest: A discrete choice experiment on residential location choice

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14 Groupe of variables Dependant variables Information of the trip Number of visit Transport cost, mode of transport, equipment s cost, entrance/parking fee, association/club membership cost, companions (alone, with friends, family, club, association). Activities (skill level), purpose, itinerary. time spent for the trip (day-trip, overnight, multiple days) preparation: shopping, courses (clubbing, kayak) Variables of the visitor Demographic / socio-economic location of residence, characteristics of the residence(house, apartment, downtown or rural area) gender, age, income, family situation (marriage, number of children, etc. ) profession, association/club membership, social activities, number of free time (for example, days per year)

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17 Survey of July,2013 State Preference Mixed logit Nb obs=1620 ; -log liklihood=449.80; Pseudo R 2 =0.23; Y=choice Coef. Std. Err. z P>z [95% Conf. Interval] Mean statu_quo Nonrandom parameters O_RSdisF RSsurf NBVFdisF Random parameters RSdisF RSdisPJ RSsurf sview price SD RSdisF RSdisPJ RSsurf sview price WTP pref WTP space fixed coeff space var Coeff. mean Std. Err. Disf (***) 7 dispj (***) *** view ** * (***) 6 Surf ** * 9 WTP space rand coeff mean (***) (***) (***) (**) Std. Err S.D (***) (***) (***) (***) Std. Err

18 Survey of July,2013

19 Survey of July,2013