Scope This module provides methods for estimating emissions from displacement of unplanned deforestation (leakage due to activity shifting).

Transcription

1 Approved VCS Module VMD0010 Version 1.0 REDD Mehodological Module: Esimaion of emissions from aciviy shifing for avoided unplanned deforesaion (LK-ASU) I. SCOPE, APPLICABILITY AND OUTPUT PARAMETERS Scope This module provides mehods for esimaing emissions from displacemen of unplanned deforesaion (leakage due o aciviy shifing). Applicabiliy The module is applicable for esimaing carbon sock changes and greenhouse gas emissions relaed o he displacemen of aciviies ha cause deforesaion of lands ouside he projec area due o he avoided unplanned deforesaion in he projec area. Aciviies subjec o poenial displacemen are: conversion of fores land o grazing lands, crop lands, and oher land uses. The module is mandaory if BL-UP has been used o define he baseline and he applicabiliy crieria in BL-UP mus be complied wih in full. Parameer This module provides mehods o deermine he following parameer: Parameer SI Uni Descripion ΔC LK-AS,unplanned CO 2 -e Ne greenhouse gas emissions due o aciviy shifing leakage for projecs prevening unplanned deforesaion

2 II. PROCEDURE Aciviies ha deforesaion agens would implemen inside he projec area in he absence of he REDD projec aciviy could be displaced ouside he projec boundary as a consequence of he implemenaion of he REDD projec aciviy. Where his displacemen of aciviies increases he rae of deforesaion, he relaed carbon sock changes and non-co 2 emissions mus be esimaed and couned as leakage. Two differen groups of deforesaion agens may be displaced: a. Local deforesaion agens obaining heir livelihood inside or near he projec area since he sar of he REDD projec aciviy. This will be he main agen group in mos cases of mosaic deforesaion. This group will also be presen in some cases of fronier deforesaion. The risk of displacing aciviies of local agen groups mus be addressed in he design of he REDD projec aciviy using one or boh of he following wo approaches: Exclusion from he projec area of he fores locaions ha are likely o be deforesed by hese groups during he implemenaion of he REDD projec aciviy. Changes in he rae of deforesaion in hese areas, compared o he baseline case, mus be couned as leakage; and Implemenaion of leakage prevenion measures o mainain or increase he agens livelihoods, such as, bu no limied o, he creaion of alernaive sources of fuelwood, improved crop or animal producion sysems, and employmen 1. b. Immigran deforesaion agens expeced o encroach ino he projec area in fuure periods. This will be he main agen group in mos cases of fronier deforesaion. This group will also be presen in some cases of mosaic deforesaion. Influencing he land-use decisions of his deforesaion agen groups will no be possible in mos cases, paricularly if he agens are coming from disan locaions and are driven by economic reasons. Leakage prevenion measures may no be sufficien o avoid some level of aciviy displacemen from happening. Definiion of he boundary of he Leakage Bel A Leakage Bel is a criical componen of he analysis of leakage for unplanned deforesaion. The module BL-UP mus be used o esablish he boundary of he Leakage Bel. 1 Noe applicabiliy condiion above precluding leakage prevenion aciviies ha cause greaer han de minimis increases in emissions LK-ASU - 2

3 STEPS The basic seps o esimae displacemen of unplanned deforesaion are: STEP 1. STEP 2. STEP 3. STEP 4. STEP 5. STEP 6. Esimaion of baseline carbon sock changes and greenhouse gas emissions in he Leakage Bel Esimaion of he proporions of area deforesed by immigran and local deforesaion agens in he baseline Esimaion of unplanned deforesaion displaced from he projec area o he Leakage Bel Esimaion of unplanned deforesaion displaced from he projec area o ouside he Leakage Bel Emissions from leakage prevenion aciviies Esimaion of oal leakage due o he displacemen of unplanned deforesaion STEP 1. Esimaion of baseline carbon sock changes and greenhouse gas emissions in he Leakage Bel A baseline for he Leakage Bel mus be esimaed in order o assess leakage due o displacemen of unplanned deforesaion. For mehods o define he baseline of he Leakage Bel refer o Module BL-UP. STEP 2. Esimaion of he proporions of area deforesed by immigran and local deforesaion agens in he baseline Randomly sample communiies living wihin 2km of he boundaries of he Leakage Bel and projec area (defined in BL-UP Par 1). A leas 10% of communiies shall be sampled. If 10% of communiies is less han 10 communiies hen he sample size shall be se as 10 (or 100% of he communiies). If 10% is more han 30 communiies hen he sample size shall be se as 30. Using a paricipaory rural appraisal (PRA) approach, exising sudies and oher verifiable sources of informaion, deermine he proporion of area deforesed by he populaion ha has been residen in and around he Leakage Bel and projec area for 5 years (PROP RES ) and he proporion of area deforesed by populaion ha has migraed ino he area in he las 5 years (PROP IMM ). This assessmen shall be repeaed a leas every 5 years and he esimaed proporions will be assumed o be represenaive for up o five fuure years. LK-ASU - 3

4 STEP 3. VMD0010, Version 1.0 Esimaion of unplanned deforesaion displaced from he projec area o he Leakage Bel a. Ex ane assessmen Based on he expeced effeciveness of he proposed REDD projec aciviies, conservaively esimae he carbon sock changes and greenhouse gas emissions in he Leakage Bel ha are expeced o occur due o he implemenaion of he REDD projec aciviy and ha would no occur in he baseline case. This shall be done by muliplying he esimaed baseline carbon sock changes and greenhouse gas emissions for he projec area by a facor < 1.0 represening he % of deforesaion expeced o be displaced ino he Leakage Bel 2. The resul is added o he esimaed baseline for he Leakage Bel (Sep 1) o esimae carbon sock changes and greenhouse gas emissions in he Leakage Bel under he projec scenario. The difference beween projec and baseline carbon sock changes and greenhouse gas emissions in he Leakage Bel is he ex ane esimaed leakage due o displacemen of unplanned deforesaion from he projec area o he Leakage Bel. b. Ex pos assessmen Measure he area deforesed in he projec area (A,PA,unplanned, ) and Leakage Bel (A LK,unplanned, ). Follow insrucions and guidance in Module M-MON. Leakage in he Leakage Bel is esimaed as follows: C LK ASULB CP, LB CBSL, LK, unplanned C LK-ASU-LB C BSL,LK,unplanned C P,LB Ne CO 2 emissions due o unplanned deforesaion displaced from he projec area o he Leakage Bel; CO 2 -e Ne CO 2 emissions in he baseline from unplanned deforesaion in he leakage bel; CO 2 -e Ne greenhouse gas emissions wihin he leakage bel in he projec case CO 2 -e (1) If C LK-ASU-LB as calculaed is <0 hen C LK-ASU-LB shall be se equal o 0 (o preven posiive leakage). 2 If no leakage prevenion aciviies are planned he facor shall be equal o 1. Where leakage prevenion aciviies are implemened he facor shall be equal o he proporion of he baseline agens esimaed o be given he opporuniy o paricipae in leakage prevenion aciviies. Leakage prevenion aciviies mus be planned o fully replace income, produc generaion and livelihood. LK-ASU - 4

5 STEP 4. VMD0010, Version 1.0 Esimaion of unplanned deforesaion displaced from he projec area o ouside he Leakage Bel Immigrans prevened from migraing ino and deforesing he projec area are conservaively assumed o migrae o an alernaive fores area and o cause deforesaion in he alernaive area. The alernaive fores area could be wihin he Leakage Bel or i could be elsewhere in he counry. The proporion migraing o he Leakage Bel is calculaed as he area of he Leakage Bel as a proporion of he oal available fores area naionally. a. Define he oal available naional fores area (TOTFOR). This can be assessed wih a coarse-scale imagery (e.g. using MODIS imagery or similar), or wih official governmen saisics on fores area. The oal naional fores area should be reduced o jus he area of fores wihin 5km of a road 3 or river 4 ha is suiable for conversion o agriculure or raising livesock. If boundaries are available hen area of proeced foress 5 (PROTFOR) and he area of managed foress 6 (MANFOR) may be excluded from he oal fores area calculaed in his sep. AVFOR TOTFOR PROTFOR MANFOR (2) AVFOR Toal available naional fores area for unplanned deforesaion; ha TOTFOR Toal available naional fores area; ha PROTFOR Toal area of fully proeced foress naionally; ha MANFOR Toal area of foress under acive managemen naionally; ha b. Calculae he area of fores in he Leakage Bel as a proporion of he oal available naional fores area. Noe ha if areas of proeced foress and/or areas of managed foress are excluded from he oal available naional fores area hey mus also be excluded from he Leakage Bel fores area (LBFOR). PROP LB LBFOR AVFOR (3) Road defined as a mainained open public way for he passage of vehicles, people and animals River defined as a waerway flowing along a definie course, usually ino he sea, fed by ribuary sreams and navigable by vessels able o ranspor people and animals Proeced foress should be defined as foress wih acive proecion in place including fores guards and policies o evic squaers. The effeciveness of proecion mus be demonsrable for areas o be excluded from oal available fores area Acive managemen should be defined as under a specific ownership which has managemen plans and acively defends lands agains invasion by squaers. The effeciveness of acive managemen for prevening deforesaion mus be demonsrable for areas o be excluded from oal available fores area LK-ASU - 5

6 PROP LB LBFOR AVFOR Area of fores available in he Leakage Bel for unplanned deforesaion as a proporion of he oal naional fores area available for unplanned deforesaion; proporion Toal available fores area for unplanned deforesaion in he Leakage Bel; ha (calculaed from he Leakage Bel Fores Cover Benchmark Map) Toal available naional fores area for unplanned deforesaion; ha c. Sraify AVFOR by carbon sock. The sraificaion shall use peer-reviewed assessmens of fores carbon socks across he counry in combinaion wih coarse fores ype maps. An iniial sraificaion should be derived from biophysical parameers (e.g. soil ype, elevaion, precipiaion regime, emperaure, slope and aspec, ree species composiion, age class/disurbance hisory). Carbon socks daa shall be associaed wih each of he sraa eiher hrough limied field measuremens or hrough values derived from he peer-reviewed lieraure. Carbon sock shall include only live above-ground ree biomass (C AB_ree see Module CP-AB). AVFOR shall be separaed ino differen sraa where coniguous areas of a leas 100 ha differ in socks by 20%. 7 Take he area weighed average carbon sock across he Leakage Bel (C LB ) and he area weighed average carbon sock for all available fores area ouside he Leakage Bel (C OLB ). The proporional difference in socks is calculaed by dividing he sock ouside he Leakage Bel by he sock inside he Leakage Bel. PROP C C (4) CS PROP CS C OLB C LB OLB LB The proporional difference in carbon socks beween areas of fores available for unplanned deforesaion boh inside and ouside he Leakage Bel; proporion Area weighed average aboveground ree carbon sock for foress available for unplanned deforesaion ouside he Leakage Bel; CO 2 -e ha -1 Area weighed average aboveground ree carbon sock for foress available for unplanned deforesaion inside he Leakage Bel; CO 2 -e ha -1 d. The proporional leakage for areas wih immigraing populaions would hen be equal o he immigraing proporion muliplied by he proporion of available naional fores area ouside he Leakage Bel muliplied by he proporional difference in socks beween foress inside and ouside he Leakage Bel. 7 A validaion he source naional daases/maps shall be presened alongside he sraificaion of AVFOR and any divergence shall be explained LK-ASU - 6

7 PROP IMM 1 PROP LB PROP CS LK PROP * * (5) LK PROP PROP IMM PROP LB PROP CS Proporional leakage for areas wih immigraing populaions; proporion Esimaed proporion of baseline deforesaion caused by immigraing populaion; proporion Area of fores available for unplanned deforesaion as a proporion of he oal naional fores area available for unplanned deforesaion; proporion The proporional difference in socks beween areas of fores available for unplanned deforesaion boh inside and ouside he Leakage Bel; proporion e. Ex ane, leakage due o he proporion of he baseline deforesaion acors who are displaced o areas ouside he Leakage Bel would herefore be equal o he change in socks in he baseline scenario minus he change in socks in he projec scenario muliplied by he proporional leakage facor for areas wih immigraing populaions: C BSL, LK, unplanned CP, LB LKPROP C * LK ASU, OLB C LK-ASU,OLB C BSL,LK,unplanned C P,LB LK PROP Ne CO 2 emissions due o unplanned deforesaion displaced ouside he Leakage Bel ; CO 2 -e Ne CO 2 equivalen emissions in he baseline from unplanned deforesaion in he leakage bel; CO 2 -e Ne CO 2 equivalen emissions wihin he leakage bel in he projec case; CO 2 -e Proporional leakage for areas wih immigraing populaions; proporion (6) f. In each monioring period, measure he area deforesed in he projec area (A DefPA,i, ) and Leakage Bel (A DefLB,i, ). Use Module M-MON. g. Ex pos, as deforesaion in he projec area and Leakage Bel will be measured, C LK- ASU,INM-OLB will be esimaed as follows: Ex pos, he proporion of he oal area deforesed by immigran agens in he projec scenario shall be deermined from he same proporion calculaed in he LK-ASU - 7

8 baseline daa. The proporional area deforesed by immigran agens in he baseline and projec scenarios is assumed o remain he same. A LK-IMM, = PROP IMM * A BSL,PA,unplanned, (7) A LK-IMM, PROP IMM A BSL,PA,unplanned, Toal area deforesed by immigran agens in he baseline and projec scenario a ime ; ha Proporion of area deforesed by immigran agens in he Leakage Bel and projec area; proporion Projeced area of unplanned baseline deforesaion in he projec area a ime ; ha 1, 2, 3 * years elapsed since he sar of he REDD VCS projec aciviy Calculae he area deforesed by immigrans in he projec area and Leakage Bel under he projec scenario as follow: A LK ACT IMM A LK-ACT-IMM, PROP IMM A DefPA,i, A DefLB,i, i M, PROP IMM * ADefPA, i, ADefLB, i, (8) i1 Area deforesed by immigrans in he projec area and Leakage Bel under he projec scenario a ime ; ha Proporion of area deforesed by immigran agens in he Leakage Bel and projec area; proporion Noe: This proporion is esimaed a leas every 5 years. Area of recorded deforesaion in he projec area in he projec case in sraum i a ime ; ha Area of recorded deforesaion in he leakage bel in he projec case in sraum i a ime ; ha 1, 2, 3 M sraa 1, 2, 3 * years elapsed since he sar of he REDD VCS projec aciviy Calculae he area deforesed by immigrans ouside he Leakage Bel and projec area: A LK-OLB, = A LK-IMM, A LK-ACT-IMM, (9) A LK-OLB, Area deforesed by immigrans ouside he Leakage Bel and projec area under he projec scenario a ime ; ha LK-ASU - 8

9 A LK-IMM, A LK-ACT -IMM, Toal area deforesed by immigran agens in he baseline and projec scenario a ime ; ha Area deforesed by immigrans in he projec area and Leakage Bel under he projec scenario a ime ; ha 1, 2, 3 * years elapsed since he sar of he REDD VCS projec aciviy Deermine wheher leakage ouside he Leakage Bel has occurred: If: If: A LK-OLB, < 0 Leakage ouside he Leakage Bel has no occurred. A LK-OLB, > 0 leakage ouside he Leakage Bel has occurred. If leakage ouside he Leakage Bel has no occurred: C LK ASU OLB C LK-ASU,OLB, 0 (10) Sum of carbon sock changes and greenhouse gas emissions due o unplanned deforesaion displaced ouside he Leakage Bel; CO 2 -e If leakage ouside he Leakage Bel has occurred: C LK ASU OLB C LK-ASU,OLB PROP CS A LK-OLB, *, PROP CS ( A 1 LK OLB, ) (11) Ne CO 2 emissions due o unplanned deforesaion displaced ouside he Leakage Bel; CO 2 -e The proporional difference in socks beween areas of fores available for unplanned deforesaion boh inside and ouside he Leakage Bel; proporion Area deforesed by immigrans ouside he Leakage Bel and projec area under he projec scenario a year ; ha 1, 2, 3 * years elapsed since he sar of he REDD VCS projec aciviy STEP 5. Emissions from leakage prevenion aciviies Where leakage prevenion aciviies are implemened he emissions from biomass burning and ferilizer usage shall be couned and conservaively included in heir enirey as emissions LK-ASU - 9

10 caused by projec implemenaion. Sraificaion of leakage prevenion aciviies shall be on he basis of biophysical parameers 8. GHG LK, E GHG LK,E * M E BiomassBurn, i, N 2Odirec N, i, 1 i1 (12) Greenhouse gas emissions as a resul of leakage of avoided deforesaion aciviies; CO 2 -e E FC,i, CO 2 emission from fossil fuel combusion in sraum i in year ; CO 2 -e E BiomassBurn,i, Non-CO 2 emissions due o biomass burning in sraum i in year ; CO 2 -e N 2 O direc-n,i, i Direc N 2 O emission as a resul of nirogen applicaion on he alernaive land use in sraum i in year ; CO 2 -e 1, 2, 3 M sraa 1, 2, 3 * years elapsed since he sar of he REDD VCS projec aciviy STEP 6. Esimaion of oal leakage due o he displacemen of unplanned deforesaion ΔC LK-AS,unplanned = C LK-A SU-LB + C LK-ASU-OLB + GHG LK,E (13) ΔC LK-AS,unplanned Ne greenhouse gas emissions due o aciviy shifing leakage for projecs prevening unplanned deforesaion Ne CO 2 emissions ; CO 2 -e C LK-ASU-OLB C LK-ASU-LB GHG LK,E Ne CO 2 emissions due o unplanned deforesaion displaced ouside he Leakage Bel; CO 2 -e Ne CO 2 emissions due o unplanned deforesaion displaced from he projec area o he Leakage Bel; CO 2 -e Greenhouse gas emissions as a resul of leakage of avoided deforesaion aciviies; CO 2 -e III. DATA AND PARAMETERS NOT MONITORED (DEFAULT OR MEASURED ONE TIME) 8 e.g. soil ype, elevaion, precipiaion regime, emperaure, slope and aspec LK-ASU - 10

11 C LB CO 2 -e ha -1 Used in equaions: 4 Area weighed average aboveground ree carbon sock for foress available for unplanned deforesaion inside he Leakage Bel Source of daa: Measuremen procedures (if any): Lieraure, field surveys Calculae from field measuremens using Module CP-AB As foress in he leakage bel are deforesed, he area weighed average mus be recalculaed a each monioring period. C OLB CO 2 -e ha -1 Used in equaions: 4 Source of daa: Measuremen procedures (if any): Area-weighed average aboveground ree carbon sock for foress available for unplanned deforesaion ouside he Leakage Bel Eiher: 1. Calculae direcly from field measuremens using Module CP-AB 2. Use numbers derived from peer-reviewed lieraure ha are naionally or a leas regionally appropriae Areas included in he calculaion of C OLB shall be limied o areas demonsraed o be suiable for agriculure or livesock ranching. Demonsraion shall be hrough exising areas of agriculure or livesock ranching on adjacen lands wih he same soil ype and climae. Areas unsuiable for agriculure or livesock such as areas ha are excessively dry, flooded or nurien poor shall be excluded. The available naional fores area and MANFOR and PROTFOR will change over ime. The area weighed average mus be recalculaed a leas every 5 years. IV. DATA AND PARAMETERS MONITORED LK-ASU - 11

12 Used in equaions: 2 Source of daa: Measuremen procedures (if any): Monioring frequency: QA/QC procedures: MANFOR Ha Toal area of foress under acive managemen naionally Official daa, peer reviewed publicaions and oher verifiable sources Mus be moniored a leas every 5 years or if verificaion occurs on a frequency of less han every 5 years examinaion mus occur prior o any verificaion even A demonsraion is required ha areas will be proeced agains deforesaion. Such a demonsraion shall include he exisence of fores guards in sufficien numbers o preven illegal colonizaion and an acive managemen plan deailing harves plans and reurn inervals, and/or evidence ha he concession owner has previously eviced illegal coloniss/squaers from he fores areas. Ex-ane i can be assumed ha MANFOR shall remain consan. PROP IMM Proporion Used in equaions: 5, 7, 8 Source of daa: Measuremen procedures (if Esimaed proporion of baseline deforesaion caused by immigraing populaion The source of daa shall be chosen wih prioriy from higher o lower preference as follows: 1. Official (governmen) daa 2. Peer-reviewed published sources 3. Oher verifiable sources 4. PRA Esimaed as proporion of he area deforesed in he pas 5 years by populaion ha migraed ino he Leakage Bel and projec area in he LK-ASU - 12

13 any): Monioring frequency: QA/QC procedures: pas 5 years (all areas wihin 2km of he boundaries of he projec area and he leakage bel shall be considered here) Mus be moniored a leas every 5 years or if verificaion occurs on a frequency of less han every 5 years examinaion mus occur prior o any verificaion even Ex-ane i can be assumed ha PROP IMM will remain consan during he baseline period Used in equaions: Source of daa: Measuremen procedures (if any): Monioring frequency: QA/QC procedures: PROP RES Proporion Esimaed proporion of baseline deforesaion caused by populaion ha has been residen for 5 years The source of daa shall be chosen wih prioriy from higher o lower preference as follows: 1. Official (governmen) daa 2. Peer-reviewed published sources 3. Oher verifiable sources 4. PRA Esimaed as proporion of he area deforesed in he pas 5 years by populaion residen in he Leakage Bel and projec area for 5 years (all areas wihin 2km of he boundaries of he projec area and he leakage bel shall be considered here) Mus be moniored a leas every 5 years or if verificaion occurs on a frequency of less han every 5 years examinaion mus occur prior o any verificaion even Ex-ane i can be assumed ha PROP RES will remain consan during he baseline period PROTFOR Ha LK-ASU - 13

14 Used in equaions: 2 Source of daa: Measuremen procedures (if any): Monioring frequency: QA/QC procedures: Toal area of fully proeced foress naionally Official daa, peer reviewed publicaions and oher verifiable sources Mus be moniored a leas every 5 years or if verificaion occurs on a frequency of less han every 5 years examinaion mus occur prior o any verificaion even A demonsraion is required ha areas will be proeced agains deforesaion. Such a demonsraion shall include eiher: 1. Designaion as a UNESCO World Heriage Sie, or 2. Managemen by an inernaional NGO, or 3. Evidence ha he governmen has immediaely aced o evic any and all illegal squaers Ex-ane i can be assumed ha PROTFOR shall remain consan. Used in equaions: 2 Source of daa: Measuremen procedures (if any): Monioring frequency: QA/QC procedures: TOTFOR Ha Toal available naional fores area Official daa, peer reviewed publicaions, remoely sensed imagery (coarse scale imagery is appropriae) or cadasral maps and oher verifiable sources Mus be moniored a leas every 5 years or if verificaion occurs on a frequency of less han every 5 years examinaion mus occur prior o any verificaion even Limied o fores areas wihin 5km of roads and rivers suiable for LK-ASU - 14

15 conversion o agriculure / livesock VMD0010, Version 1.0 Ex-ane i can be conservaively be assumed ha TOTFOR shall remain consan for he baseline period. V. TERMS ORIGINATING IN OTHER MODULES Used in equaions: 7 Module parameer originaes in: A BSL,PA-unplanned, Ha Projeced area of unplanned baseline deforesaion in he projec area a ime BL-UP Used in equaions: 8 Module parameer originaes in: A DefLB,i, Ha Area of recorded deforesaion in he leakage bel in he projec case in sraum i a ime M-MON Used in equaions: 8 Module parameer originaes in: A DefPA,i, Ha Area of recorded deforesaion in he projec area in he projec case in sraum i a ime M-MON LK-ASU - 15

16 CO 2 -e Used in equaions: 1, 6 Module parameer originaes in: C BSL,LK,unplanned Ne CO 2 emissions in he baseline from unplanned deforesaion in he leakage bel BL-UP C P,LB CO 2 -e Used in equaions: 1, 6 Module parameer originaes in: Ne greenhouse gas emissions wihin he leakage bel in he projec case M-MON E BiomassBurn,i, CO 2 -e Used in equaions: 12 Module parameer originaes in: Non-CO 2 emissions due o biomass burning in sraum i in year E-BB Corresponding informaion shall be included in he VCS PD N 2 O direc-n,i, CO 2 -e Used in equaions: 12 Module parameer originaes in: Direc N 2 O emission as a resul of nirogen applicaion in sraum i in year E-NA LK-ASU - 16

17 Corresponding informaion shall be included in he VCS PD Used in equaions: 3 Module parameer originaes in: Leakage Bel Fores Cover Benchmark Map Map showing he locaion of fores land wihin he leakage bel area a he beginning of each monioring period. Only applicable where leakage is o be moniored in a leakage bel M-MON LK-ASU - 17