Hazus: Estimated Damage and Economic Losses. North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia, United States

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1 Hurricane Florence Advisory 49, 11 September EST (1500Z) Hazus: Estimated Damage and Economic es North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia, United States Caution: Due to the level of uncertainty associated with the current advisory (#46), results should be used with caution for initial planning purposes only. The results are based on the official National Weather Service (NWS) advisory. However, significant changes to the track and intensity may occur. Note: Model results produced by Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) and FEMA s HAZUS program, utilizing the FEMA Hazus 4.2 model. Level 1 data. These results are based on the official NWS advisory. Disclaimer: The estimates of social and economic impacts contained in this report were produced using Hazus loss estimation methodology software which is based on current scientific and engineering knowledge. There are uncertainties inherent in any loss estimation technique. Therefore, there may be significant differences between the modeled results contained in this report and the actual social and economic losses following a specific Hurricane. Pacific Disaster Center response@pdc.org FEMA HAZUS program Casey.Zuzak@fema.dhs.gov/Jesse.Rozelle@fema.dhs.gov

2 Quick Assessment Report September 11, 2018 Study Region : Scenario : Scenario Description : Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph) : Florence49 FLORENCE_2018_stm_1507PM Forcast/Advisory 121 Regional Statistics Area (Square Miles) Number of Census Tracts Number of People in the Region 44,902 1,964 8,499,350 Scenario Results General Building Stock Occupancy Building Count Dollar Exposure ($ M) Residential Commercial Other Total Number of Buildings Damaged 3,221, ,836 94,242 3,481, , ,114 73, ,519 Damage State Residential Commercial Other Total Minor 34,000 1, ,000 Moderate 8, ,300 Severe 1, ,100 Destruction 900 <10 < Total 44,000 1, ,000 Shelter Requirements Displaced Households (# Households) 1,200 Short Term Shelter (# People) 800 Economic ( $ Millions ) Capital Stock 1,663 Residential Property Commercial Property Other Property 1, Business Interruption (Income) Total Direct Economic 193 1,856 Totals only reflect data for those census tracts/block included in the user's study region. Disclaimer: The estimates of social and economic impacts contained in this report were produced using HAZUS loss estimation methodology software which is based on current scientific and engineering knowledge. There are uncertainties inherent in any loss estimation technique. Therefore, there may be significant differences between the modeled results contained in this report and the actual social and economic losses following a specific Hurricane. These results can be improved by using enhanced inventory data.

3 Hurricane Florence - Peak Wind Gusts (mph) by Census Tract North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia Advisory 49-11SEP Z Tropical Cyclone Positions " ) Hurricane/Typhoon >150 mph Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph Tropical Storm: mph Tropical Depression: <39 mph Current Position Peak Wind Gusts (mph) U.S. County Boundaries ** Indicates peak wind gusts measured in miles per hour based on the NWS advisory Miles 80 Kilometers The delineation of political boundaries, and associated data shown here do not imply endorsement by the Pacific Disaster Center. Produced By: Pacific Disaster Center & FEMA Product Created: 9/11/2018 Source Data: ESRI, NOAA, HAZUS Projection: Mercator Datum WGS84 response@pdc.org

4 Hurricane Florence - Direct Economic es for Buildings by County - North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia Advisory 49-11SEP Z Tropical Cyclone Positions " ) Hurricane/Typhoon >150 mph Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph Tropical Storm: mph Tropical Depression: <39 mph Current Position Direct Economic es ($K) $0 - $1,571 $1,571 - $20,048 $20,048 - $71,449 $71,449 - $310,381 $310,381 - $896,863 ** Indicates losses related to building repair and replacement costs, damage to contents, losses of building inventory, relocation expense, capital-related. $1,856 Million Commecial Property (Billion $) % Other Property (Billion $) % Residential Property (Billion $) % The delineation of political boundaries, and associated data shown here do not imply endorsement by the Pacific Disaster Center Produced By: Pacific Disaster Center & FEMA Product Created: 9/11/2018 Source Data: ESRI, NOAA, HAZUS Projection: Mercator Datum WGS84 80 Miles 80 Kilometers response@pdc.org

5 Hurricane Florence - Debris Generated by County (HAZUS) North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia Advisory 49-11SEP Z Tropical Cyclone Positions " ) Hurricane/Typhoon >150 mph Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph Tropical Storm: mph Tropical Depression: <39 mph Current Position Total Debris (tons) ,266 6,267-54,939 54, ,347 *Debris includes: brick/wood, concrete/steel and tree debris only in or near right of ways. 355K Tons Total Wind Debris Generated Miles 80 Kilometers The delineation of political boundaries, and associated data shown here do not imply endorsement by the Pacific Disaster Center. Produced By: Pacific Disaster Center & FEMA Product Created: 9/11/2018 Source Data: ESRI, NOAA, HAZUS Projection: Mercator Datum WGS84 response@pdc.org

6 Hurricane Florence - Displaced Households by County North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia Advisory 49-11SEP Z Tropical Cyclone Positions " ) Hurricane/Typhoon >150 mph Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph Tropical Storm: mph Tropical Depression: <39 mph Current Position Displaced Households Residential building damage categories depicted in the table are based on FEMA IA program PDA guidance. These are the same as the HAZUS categories: Minor, Moderate, Severe, and Destruction. 1,237 Total Households Displaced Miles 80 Kilometers The delineation of political boundaries, and associated data shown here do not imply endorsement by the Pacific Disaster Center. Produced By: Pacific Disaster Center & FEMA Product Created: 9/11/2018 Source Data: ESRI, NOAA, HAZUS Projection: Mercator Datum WGS84 response@pdc.org

7 Hazus: Region Name: Gordon9 Hurricane Scenario: GORDON_2018_stm_1526PM Print Date: Tuesday, September 4, 2018 Disclaimer: This version of Hazus utilizes 2010 Census Data. Totals only reflect data for those census tracts/blocks included in the user's study region. The estimates of social and economic impacts contained in this report were produced using Hazus loss estimation methodology software which is based on current scientific and engineering knowledge. There are uncertainties inherent in any loss estimation technique. Therefore, there may be significant differences between the modeled results contained in this report and the actual social and economic losses following a specific Hurricane. These results can be improved by using enhanced inventory data.

8 Table of Contents Section Page # General Description of the Region 3 Building Inventory 4 General Building Stock Essential Facility Inventory Hurricane Scenario Parameters 5 Building Damage 6 General Building Stock Essential Facilities Damage Induced Hurricane Damage 8 Debris Generation Social Impact 8 Shelter Requirements Economic Building es 9 Appendix A: County Listing for the Region Appendix B: Regional Population and Building Value Data Page 2 of 19

9 General Description of the Region Hazus is a regional multi-hazard loss estimation model that was developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Institute of Building Sciences. The primary purpose of Hazus is to provide a methodology and software application to develop multi-hazard losses at a regional scale. These loss estimates would be used primarily by local, state and regional officials to plan and stimulate efforts to reduce risks from multi-hazards and to prepare for emergency response and recovery. The hurricane loss estimates provided in this report are based on a region that includes 63 county(ies) from the following state(s): - Alabama - Louisiana - Mississippi Note: Appendix A contains a complete listing of the counties contained in the region. The geographical size of the region is 40, square miles and contains 714 census tracts. There are over 1,164 thousand households in the region and a total population of 3,095,028 people (2010 Census Bureau data). The distribution of population by State and County is provided in Appendix B. There are an estimated 1,291 thousand buildings in the region with a total building replacement value (excluding contents) of 291,958 million dollars (2014 dollars). Approximately 92% of the buildings (and 75% of the building value) are associated with residential housing. Page 3 of 19

10 Building Inventory General Building Stock Hazus estimates that there are 1,291,883 buildings in the region which have an aggregate total replacement value of 291,958 million (2014 dollars). Table 1 presents the relative distribution of the value with respect to the general occupancies. Appendix B provides a general distribution of the building value by State and County. 240,000K Building Exposure by Occupancy Type 200,000K 160,000K Residential Commercial 120,000K 80,000K 40,000K Industrial Agricultural Religious Government Education 0K Table 1: Building Exposure by Occupancy Type Occupancy Residential Commercial Industrial Agricultural Religious Government Education Exposure ($1000) 218,452,857 45,474,545 10,667,496 2,632,972 7,699,532 2,447,116 4,583,831 Percent of Tot 74.82% 15.58% 3.65% 0.90% 2.64% 0.84% 1.57% Total 291,958,349 10% Essential Facility Inventory For essential facilities, there are 106 hospitals in the region with a total bed capacity of 17,175 beds. 1,331 schools, 340 fire stations, 362 police stations and 26 emergency operation facilities. There are Page 4 of 19

11 Hurricane Scenario Hazus used the following set of information to define the hurricane parameters for the hurricane loss estimate provided in this report. Scenario Name: Type: GORDON_2018_stm_1526PM Forcast/Advisory Maximum Peak Gust in Study Region: 81 mph Storm Information: HURREVAC Storm Advisory Download; FILE PATH: ftp://ftp.hurrevac2.com/g_2018.stm User Defined Storm Track Input Data Point Latitude Longitude Time Step (hour) Translation Speed (mph) Radius To Max Winds (miles) Max. Sustained Wind Speed 10m) Cental Pressure (mbar) Profile Parameter Radius to Hurricane Force Winds (miles) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Page 5 of 19

12 Building Damage General Building Stock Damage Hazus estimates that about 55 buildings will be at least moderately damaged. This is over 0% of the total number of buildings in the region. There are an estimated 0 buildings that will be completely destroyed. The definition of the damage states is provided in the Hazus Hurricane technical manual. Table 2 below summarizes the expected damage by general occupancy for the buildings in the region. Table 3 summarizes the expected damage by general building type Expected Building Damage by Occupancy 800 Minor Moderate 600 Severe Destruction Agriculture Commercial Education Government Industrial Religion Residential Table 2: Expected Building Damage by Occupancy None Minor Moderate Severe Destruction Occupancy Count (%) Count (%) Count (%) Count (%) Count (%) Agriculture 5, Commercial 67, Education 2, Government 2, Industrial 16, Religion 9, Residential 1,185, Total 1,290, , Page 6 of 19

13 Table 3: Expected Building Damage by Building Type Building Type None Minor Moderate Severe Destruction Count (%) Count (%) Count (%) Count (%) Count (%) Concrete 14, Masonry 106, MH 189, Steel 34, Wood 944, Page 7 of 19

14 Essential Facility Damage Before the hurricane, the region had 17,175 hospital beds available for use. On the day of the hurricane, the model estimates that hospital beds (only 10%) are available for use by patients already in the hospital and those injured by the hurricane. After one week, 10% of the beds will be in service. By 30 days, 10% will be operational. Thematic Map of Essential Facilities with greater than 50% moderate Table 4: Expected Damage to Essential Facilities # Facilities Classification Total Probability of at Least Moderate Damage > 50% Probability of Complete Damage > 50% Expected of Use < 1 day EOCs Fire Stations Hospitals Police Stations Schools 1,331 1,331 Page 8 of 19

15 Induced Hurricane Damage Debris Generation Estimated Debris (Tons) Total Debris 233,955 Tree Debris Brick/ Wood Concrete/ Steel 229,285 4, K 40K 80K 120K 160K 200K 240K Hazus estimates the amount of debris that will be generated by the hurricane. The model breaks the debris into four general categories: a) Brick/Wood, b) Reinforced Concrete/Steel, c) Eligible Tree Debris, and d) Other Tree Debris. This distinction is made because of the different types of material handling equipment required to handle the debris. The model estimates that a total of 233,955 tons of debris will be generated. Of the total amount, 206,587 tons (88%) is Other Tree Debris. Of the remaining 27,368 tons, Brick/Wood comprises 17% of the total, Reinforced Concrete/Steel comprises of 0% of the total, with the remainder being Eligible Tree Debris. If the building debris tonnage is converted to an estimated number of truckloads, it will require 187 truckloads (@25 tons/truck) to remove the building debris generated by the hurricane. The number of Eligible Tree Debris truckloads will depend on how the 22,698 tons of Eligible Tree Debris are collected and processed. The volume of tree debris generally ranges from about 4 cubic yards per ton for chipped or compacted tree debris to about 10 cubic yards per ton for bulkier, uncompacted debris. Page 9 of 19

16 Social Impact Shelter Requirement Estimated Shelter Needs Displaced Households 3 Temporary Shelter Hazus estimates the number of households that are expected to be displaced from their homes due to the hurricane and the number of displaced people that will require accommodations in temporary public shelters. The model estimates 3 households to be displaced due to the hurricane. Of these, 3 people (out of a total population of 3,095,028) will seek temporary shelter in public shelters. Page 10 of 19

17 Economic The total economic loss estimated for the hurricane is 92.4 replacement value of the region s buildings. million dollars, which represents 0.03 % of the total Building-Related es The building related losses are broken into two categories: direct property damage losses and business interruption losses. The direct property damage losses are the estimated costs to repair or replace the damage caused to the building and its contents. The business interruption losses are the losses associated with inability to operate a business because of the damage sustained during the hurricane. Business interruption losses also include the temporary living expenses for those people displaced from their homes because of the hurricane. The total property damage losses were 92 million dollars. 3% of the estimated losses were related to the business interruption of the region. By far, the largest loss was sustained by the residential occupancies which made up over 98% of the total loss. Table 5 below provides a summary of the losses associated with the building damage. Page 11 of 19

18 70K 60K 10K Total by General Occupancy Income Relocation Rental Wage Building Content Inventory Type by General Occupancy 50K 40K 30K 20K Residential Commercial Industrial Others 0K Building Content Income Inventory Relocation Rental Wage Table 5: Building-Related Economic Estimates (Thousands of dollars) Category Area Residential Commercial Industrial Others Total Property Damage Building 66, Content 21, , , , Inventory Subtotal 87, , , Business Interruption Income Relocation 1, Rental 1, , , Wage Subtotal 2, , Page 12 of 19

19 Total Total 90, , , Page 13 of 19

20 Appendix A: County Listing for the Region Alabama - Baldwin - Mobile Louisiana - East Carroll - Franklin - Madison - Morehouse - Plaquemines - Richland - St. Bernard - St. Tammany - Tangipahoa - Tensas - Washington - West Carroll Mississippi - Amite - Attala - Bolivar - Carroll - Claiborne - Coahoma - Copiah - Covington - Forrest - Franklin - George - Greene - Grenada - Hancock - Harrison - Hinds - Holmes - Humphreys - Issaquena - Jackson - Jasper - Jefferson - Jefferson Davis - Jones - Lamar - Lawrence - Leake - Leflore Page 14 of 19

21 - Lincoln - Madison - Marion - Montgomery - Neshoba - Newton - Pearl River - Perry - Pike - Rankin - Scott - Sharkey - Simpson - Smith - Stone - Sunflower - Tallahatchie - Walthall - Warren - Washington - Yazoo Page 15 of 19

22 Appendix B: Regional Population and Building Value Data Page 16 of 19

23 Building Value (thousands of dollars) Population Residential Non-Residential Total Alabama Baldwin 182,265 17,894,058 4,449,496 22,343,554 Mobile 412,992 30,057,273 12,238,443 42,295,716 Total 595,257 47,951,331 16,687,939 64,639,270 Louisiana East Carroll 7, , , ,712 Franklin 20,767 1,337, ,408 1,727,146 Madison 12, , , ,206 Morehouse 27,979 1,801, ,900 2,301,365 Plaquemines 23,042 1,691, ,239 2,344,219 Richland 20,725 1,309, ,388 1,691,252 St. Bernard 35,897 2,741, ,270 3,681,095 St. Tammany 233,740 19,324,932 4,079,530 23,404,462 Tangipahoa 121,097 7,271,289 1,710,075 8,981,364 Tensas 5, , , ,787 Washington 47,168 2,696, ,549 3,361,459 West Carroll 11, , , ,198 Total 567,123 40,466,149 10,104,116 50,570,265 Mississippi Amite 13, , , ,698 Attala 19,564 1,159, ,213 1,538,762 Bolivar 34,145 1,988, ,156 2,829,550 Carroll 10, ,532 67, ,475 Claiborne 9, , , ,351 Coahoma 26,151 1,326, ,518 1,968,300 Page 17 of 19

24 Copiah 29,449 1,707, ,751 2,423,028 Covington 19,568 1,148, ,550 1,490,469 Forrest 74,934 4,872,303 2,450,750 7,323,053 Franklin 8, , , ,259 George 22,578 1,237, ,651 1,574,811 Greene 14, , , ,490 Grenada 21,906 1,284, ,847 1,954,519 Hancock 43,929 3,240, ,391 4,046,515 Harrison 187,105 15,563,653 5,628,522 21,192,175 Hinds 245,285 17,710,793 8,173,875 25,884,668 Holmes 19, , ,755 1,276,470 Humphreys 9, , , ,076 Issaquena 1,406 64,234 9,792 74,026 Jackson 139,668 10,772,953 2,679,208 13,452,161 Jasper 17, , ,360 1,245,148 Jefferson 7, , , ,438 Jefferson Davis 12, , , ,292 Jones 67,761 3,808,770 1,695,111 5,503,881 Lamar 55,658 4,112, ,106 5,002,071 Lawrence 12, , , ,971 Leake 23,805 1,200, ,064 1,633,044 Leflore 32,317 1,855,775 1,074,329 2,930,104 Lincoln 34,869 2,121, ,464 2,946,803 Madison 95,203 9,546,901 2,549,212 12,096,113 Marion 27,088 1,473, ,460 2,035,626 Montgomery 10, , , ,828 Neshoba 29,676 1,658, ,867 2,147,855 Page 18 of 19

25 Newton 21,720 1,271, ,855 1,721,891 Pearl River 55,834 3,350, ,330 4,283,877 Perry 12, , , ,256 Pike 40,404 2,117,147 1,099,700 3,216,847 Rankin 141,617 11,191,184 3,048,621 14,239,805 Scott 28,264 1,479, ,823 2,075,948 Sharkey 4, , , ,309 Simpson 27,503 1,720, ,926 2,230,145 Smith 16, , ,574 1,187,251 Stone 17,786 1,097, ,186 1,423,061 Sunflower 29,450 1,333, ,511 1,959,550 Tallahatchie 15, , , ,126 Walthall 15, , , ,953 Warren 48,773 3,325,474 1,426,691 4,752,165 Washington 51,137 3,033,488 1,678,719 4,712,207 Yazoo 28,065 1,299, ,217 1,866,393 Total 1,932, ,035,377 46,713, ,748,814 Study Region Total 3,095, ,452,857 73,505, ,958,349 Page 19 of 19

26 Direct Economic es For Buildings: September 11, 2018 All values are in thousands of dollars Capital Stock es Income es Cost Cost Inventory Relocation Capital Wages Rental Total Building Contents Ratio Related es Income Damage Damage % North Carolina Alamance.0 Anson.0 Beaufort.0 Bertie.0 Bladen Brunswick 7,863 2, ,416 Camden.0 Carteret 142,835 54, , , ,676 Caswell.0 Chatham.0 Chowan.0 Columbus Craven 14,583 5, ,049 Cumberland Currituck.0 Dare.0 Davidson.0 Duplin 46,979 20, , ,449 Study Region : Scenario : Florence49 FLORENCE_2018_stm_1507PM Page : 1 of 6

27 Direct Economic es For Buildings: September 11, 2018 All values are in thousands of dollars Capital Stock es Income es Cost Cost Inventory Relocation Capital Wages Rental Total Building Contents Ratio Related es Income Damage Damage % North Carolina Durham.0 Edgecombe.0 Forsyth.0 Franklin.0 Gates.0 Granville.0 Greene Guilford.0 Halifax.0 Harnett Hertford.0 Hoke.0 Hyde.0 Johnston 1, ,572 Jones 5,372 1, ,416 Lee.0 Lenoir 8,967 1, ,481 Martin.0 Study Region : Scenario : Florence49 FLORENCE_2018_stm_1507PM Page : 2 of 6

28 Direct Economic es For Buildings: September 11, 2018 All values are in thousands of dollars Capital Stock es Income es Cost Cost Inventory Relocation Capital Wages Rental Total Building Contents Ratio Related es Income Damage Damage % North Carolina Montgomery.0 Moore.0 Nash.0 New Hanover 215,581 49, ,224 1,770 1,493 6, ,875 Northampton.0 Onslow 595, ,608 1, ,575 3,585 6,279 29, ,864 Orange.0 Pamlico Pasquotank.0 Pender 200,248 72, ,892 1,818 2,513 8, ,381 Perquimans.0 Person.0 Pitt Randolph.0 Richmond.0 Robeson.0 Rockingham.0 Rowan.0 Study Region : Scenario : Florence49 FLORENCE_2018_stm_1507PM Page : 3 of 6

29 Direct Economic es For Buildings: September 11, 2018 All values are in thousands of dollars Capital Stock es Income es Cost Cost Inventory Relocation Capital Wages Rental Total Building Contents Ratio Related es Income Damage Damage % North Carolina Sampson 6,993 2, ,466 Scotland.0 Stanly.0 Stokes.0 Tyrrell.0 Vance.0 Wake 1, ,564 Warren.0 Washington.0 Wayne 8,858 1, ,650 Wilson Total 1,257, ,265 2, ,158 8,035 11,480 49,877 1,855,915 South Carolina Chesterfield.0 Dillon.0 Horry.0 Study Region : Scenario : Florence49 FLORENCE_2018_stm_1507PM Page : 4 of 6

30 Direct Economic es For Buildings: September 11, 2018 All values are in thousands of dollars Capital Stock es Income es Cost Cost Inventory Relocation Capital Wages Rental Total Building Contents Ratio Related es Income Damage Damage % South Carolina Marion.0 Marlboro.0 Total Virginia Brunswick.0 Chesapeake.0 Danville.0 Emporia.0 Greensville.0 Halifax.0 Hampton.0 Henry.0 Isle of Wight.0 Martinsville.0 Mecklenburg.0 Newport News.0 Study Region : Scenario : Florence49 FLORENCE_2018_stm_1507PM Page : 5 of 6

31 Direct Economic es For Buildings: September 11, 2018 All values are in thousands of dollars Capital Stock es Income es Cost Cost Inventory Relocation Capital Wages Rental Total Building Contents Ratio Related es Income Damage Damage % Virginia Norfolk.0 Northampton.0 Patrick.0 Pittsylvania.0 Poquoson.0 Portsmouth.0 Southampton.0 Suffolk.0 Surry.0 Virginia Beach.0 York.0 Total Study Region Total 1,257, ,265 2, ,158 8,035 11,480 49,877 1,855,915 Totals only reflect data for those census tracts/blocks included in the user's study region and will reflect the entire county/state only if all of the census blocks for that county/state were selected at the time of study region creation. Study Region : Scenario : Florence49 FLORENCE_2018_stm_1507PM Page : 6 of 6