Increasing Threats of Megafires on the WUI Communities of Canada

Transcription

1 Increasing Threats of Megafires on the WUI Communities of Canada Nirmal Subedi, Steve Taylor and Brian Peter Industry Trade & Economics Research Program Natural Resources Canada/Canadian Forest Service Wildland Fire Canada 2016 Building Resilience Conference Kelowna, BC

2 Outline Overview of Wildfire Disturbances Large Fire Events Catastrophic Wildfire Events Closer Look at a Few Mega-Fires A risk-based approach for wildfire management Challenges and Opportunities Wrap up

3 Wildland Fire - Canada Area Burned ( '000 ha) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Area Burned ('000 ha) Number of Fires ('000) Number of Fires ('000) Source: Canadian National Forestry Database

4 Wildland Fire in BC, Canada Area Burned ( '000 ha) Area Burned ('000 ha) Number of Fires ('000) Number of Fires ('000) Source: Canadian National Forestry Database

5 Wildfire Management Cost Suppression Cost ($ million) 1,200 1, Wildfire Management Cost ($ million) $ 657 million (2013 $ value) Average Cost ($ million) Year Source: Stocks and Martell 2016

6 Wildfire Management Cost Wildfire Management Cost ($ million) Linear (Wildfire Management Cost ($ million)) Suppression Cost ($ million) 1,200 1, y = x R² = Year

7 Large Fires Large Fire (> 200 ha) Total Area Burned ('000 ha) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, s 1930s 1950s 1970s 1990s Decades Source: CNFDB

8 Canadian Wildfire Disaster A disaster happens when a hazard [such as wildfire] intersects with a vulnerable community [e.g. WUI community] and exceeds or overwhelms the community s capacity to cope and may result into serious harm to the public safety, health, property, values, assets, and well being of community. (Public Safety Canada, 2011) Public Safety Canada defines a significant disaster" when it causes: 10 or more loss of lives 100 or more individuals affected / injured / evacuated or became homeless A situation that lead to appeal for national/international assistance Historical significance (unpreceded) Significant damage / interruption of normal processes beyond resilience

9 Canadian Disasters Events ( ) Conflict Incident 2% Geological 5% Biological 2% Others 5% Flood 29% Technology Incident 19% Hurricane 3% Winter Strom 7% Tornado 4% Drought 4% Wildfire 9% Severe Thunderstroms 11% Source: Canadian Disaster Database, PSC

10 Trend of Wildfire Disaster Number of Wildfire Disasters Source: PSC Canada

11 Evacuation- Wildfire Disasters Number of Evacuees ('000) Source: (CIFFC Data, Per. Comm. Erin Naydenov Feb 2 nd, 2016)

12 Number of Evacuees ('000) Wildfire Disasters and Federal Evacuation Number DFAA Payments Central and Northern MB Assistance Kelowna, BC and MB Fort McMurray, AB Multiple in BC 2008 Multiple in BC & MB Slave Lake, AB 2010 La Ronge, SK Source: (CIFFC Data, Per. Comm. Erin Naydenov Feb 2 nd, 2016) DFAA- Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements, PSC 0 Federal DFAA payment ($ Million)

13 Energy and Forest Industry- Capital Investment $ (Billion) Energy and Forestry Sector Year As a Share of Total Economy (%) Source: Stat Can As a Share of Total Economy (%)

14 Mega-fires Mega-fires refer to those events that cause catastrophic damages in terms of human casualties, economic losses, or both. (San- Miguel-Ayanz et al 2013) Mega-fire is more of a concept than a construct. What I interpret it to mean is not only is it large, but it affects a lot of people. Robert Keane, USDA-Forest Service A concept to define unprecedented, high intensity and unstoppable wildfire causing threats to community and loss of assets and values. Top Figure - Google Disaster Map- Fort McMurray

15 Recent- Mega fires

16 a) Fort McMurray Fire ,400+ $ 3.58 billion Loss of Insured property, business, and auto (Source: IBC, Aug 16, 2016) 90,000 people 589,552 ha $ 304 million Canadian Red Cross $615 million 1572 firefighters, 60 helicopters, 19 tankers 37 pieces of heavy equipment (Mack Lamoureux and Michelle Bellefontaine, CBC June 2016 news) $ 1.82 billion 1.2 million barrel/ day for 28 days (Goldman Sachs report cited in Global Mail on May 12, 2016) EI claim application Soared by 22,800 $ 1.5 million 20,000 cubic meters (Dan Healing, Canadian press May 20, 2016) Image credit: Cartoon online

17 b) Slave Lake Wildfire $ 700 million Loss of Insured property, business, and auto (Source: Flat Top Complex Wildfire Review Committee Report 2012) 15,000 people $133.3 million (Surge in operating cost of fire suppression than pre 2011 average annual cost ( million); Brian Stocks, personal communication) $ 300 million 21,685 ha Source: Flat Top Complex Report 2012

18 c) Firestorm $ 200 million Loss of Insured property, business, and auto (Firestrom Report 2004) Kelowna Wildfire, 25,600 ha McLure Wildfire 26,420 $317.6 million Additional suppression cost than pre-2003 average annual cost (Brian Stocks per. com.) 12 Wooden trestles and 2 other steel trestles 45,000 people Loss of 3 lives Source: FireStorm 2003 Report Photo credit: myra-trestles

19 True Cost of Wildfire Suppression Cost Health Effects Disruption of Water supply Evacuation Cost Post-fire clean up cost Loss of Business Operation Property Damage Loss of Timber Loss of Archeologi cal Heritage Damage to Infrastructure Loss of Outdoor Recreation Other Ecosystem servicescarbon, habitat Cost of an extreme wildfire can be devastating to local communities, businesses and publics. 19

20 A risk-based wildfire management approach Ignition Weather Topography Fire Behaviour Fuel Fire Adapted Homes, Business and Communities ASSETS & VALUES Ecological, social, economic Cost effective mitigation options LIKELIHOOD Probability of ignition or burning INTENSITY e.g. flame length Wildfire Management & Prevention Total Cost of Wildfire EFFECTS Positive or negative RISK Expected loss or gain Adopted from Miller and Ager 2013

21 A risk-based wildfire management approach Ignition Weather Topography Fire Behaviour Fuel Fire Adapted Homes, Business and Communities ASSETS & VALUES Ecological, social, economic Cost effective mitigation options LIKELIHOOD Probability of ignition or burning INTENSITY e.g. flame length Wildfire Management & Prevention Total Cost of Wildfire EFFECTS Positive or negative RISK Expected loss or gain Adopted from Miller and Ager 2013

22 Major Challenges Expanding WUI Communities Increasing Resource industry infrastructure and activities in Western Canada Extreme weather conditions longer fire season, increasing spring temperature (Flannigan et al 2009) and hotter drought (Allen et al 2010 and 2016)

23 Opportunities Further improvement on wildfire emergency response Risk-based approach - prevention and mitigation Identifying high risk communities and infrastructures Reducing fire hazard -fuel treatment and fire break

24 Opportunities Making communities wildfire adapted Develop Community wildfire protection plan Improving community land use plan, if possible Using fire resistant building material for shingles and siding Routinely implementing FireSmart guidelines

25 Conclusion Area burned by fire increasing Wildfire management cost and total loss soaring Wildfire disasters more frequent More people evacuated every year Wildland communities and resource industry expanding More investment needed in prevention and mitigation communities wildfire adapted

26 Thank you! (nsyilxcen) Nirmal Subedi Credit: Ashleigh Green, UBC Okanagan in dribble