Identifying spatial priorities for adaptation action in the Welsh landscape

Transcription

1 Identifying spatial priorities for adaptation action in the Welsh landscape Clive Walmsley, Rob McCall, NRW Tim Pagella, Bangor University Robert Deane, LUC Climate Change and Nature Conservation in Europe Bonn, June

2 12% of land area national protected area for nature conservation (SSSIs incl. SACs/SPAs) 24% of land area including landscape designations (National Parks, AONBs) Crown Copyright and database right [2013]. Ordnance Survey licence number

3 Climate Vulnerability Index for SSSIs Based on proportion of all habitat and species features assessed as highly vulnerable to climate change over the next 20 years

4 Highest Astronomical Tide (mod) Site-based adaptive management approach - Bosherston Lakes SAC Baseline 2020s 2050s 2080s Time period Low High

5 Cambrian Mountains Initiative Collaboration between Local Authority, Agencies, land owners and NGOs Demonstrate integrated approach to sustainable land management Biodiversity and ecosystem service enhancement combined with socio-economic benefits

6 Defra Adaptive Landscapes Project Identifying opportunity for enhancing environmental resilience to climate change for biodiversity and other ecosystem services Through planned land-use change, can we apply biodiversity adaptation principles at a landscape scale, while maintaining or enhancing other ecosystem services?

7 UK Biodiversity Partnership Guidelines: adaptation principles 1 Conserve existing biodiversity 2 Reduce sources of harm not linked to climate 3 Develop ecologically resilient and varied landscapes 4 Establish ecological networks 5 Make sound decisions based on analysis 6 Integrate adaptation and mitigation measures into conservation management

8 The case study area From Pumlumon (750 m) to the Dyfi Estuary and Cardigan Bay 38,000 ha Around 250 farm holdings Catchments of the Rivers Leri, Ceullan, Clararch, Clettwr and Rheidol

9 The case study area existing land use and habitats Coastal Lowland Upland Transition

10 Polyscape: identifying land use change opportunity and risk A decision support tool that uses user-defined rules to identify areas where there are opportunities for land use change AND where land use should be maintained or enhanced Utilises GIS datasets to determine spatial priority areas for biodiversity conservation, agricultural production, flood risk management and carbon storage Additional input of expert opinion and local knowledge Outputs used to visualise priorities and opportunities and engage landowners and other stakeholders in conversation

11 Data sources and information behind the model TOPOGRAPHY: OS 10 m digital terrain model SOILS: NSRI Soilscapes LAND USE: Phase 1 habitat surveys (2009 and 1980s) Modelling derived from Habitat Networks output DESIGNATED AREAS: (SSSIs, SACs, SPAs) DRAINAGE AND FLOODING: Rivers and EA Flood maps INTERPRETED THROUGH: Local knowledge (ecological specialists, regional staff and land owners)

12 Biodiversity Adaptation Scenario - Polyscape Rules 1 Safeguarded sites and habitats SSSIs Raised and blanket bog (all heavy peat areas) Hedgerows and broadleaved woodland Lowland heath Upland heath (esp. adjacent to acid grassland) Lowland unimproved grassland Saltmarsh River corridors

13 Biodiversity Adaptation scenario - Polyscape Rules 2 Opportunity areas Land other than blanket bog over peat soils Conifer plantation on ancient woodland site All improved grassland Intermediate areas Other Conifer woodland Semi-improved grassland and all other habitats not accounted for

14 Polyscape mapping colour scheme Areas with priority for maintaining current land use High Moderate Areas with moderate potential for land use change Areas with high priority for land use change Moderate High

15 Polyscape output for the Biodiversity Adaptation scenario Highest existing values on Cors Fochno, on upland heath complexes and along river valleys Greatest opportunity on lowland farmland

16 Agricultural productivity scenario Polyscape Rules All land scored on the basis of: Soil fertility (NSRI); Drainage; and Slope Most productive land is that which has: Highly fertile soils Good natural drainage Slope of less than 5% Land most suitable for other uses has: Low fertility soils, especially in the uplands Poor natural drainage Slopes greater than 15%

17 Polyscape output for the Agricultural Productivity scenario Areas of highest value for agriculture are on the flat freedraining lowlands. Areas of lower value for agricultural productivity, and therefore potentially available for other priorities, are in the uplands

18 Reducing flood run-off scenario Polyscape Rules All land scored using soil and land use data on the basis of: Soil permeability Land use capable of storing or holding back water All land use or soil types that provide some level of regulation of water run-off Land with potential to produce large unregulated overland flow

19 Polyscape output for the Reducing Run-off scenario Areas of peat soils shown as sinks or stores of run-off. Greatest opportunity for interventions to reduce run-off are on impervious soils on steep slopes.

20 Combining layers in Polyscape Numerical score allocated to each zone Additive approach taken to combining layers Example + Layer A Layer B -1 2 = 1 Combined layer

21 Combined outputs Biodiversity and agriculture The services cancel each other out in the uplands and lowlands Leaves transitional zone as area for adaptation interventions

22 Combined outputs All four scenarios Cors Fochno, broadleaved woodland and peat soils are priorities for protection. Greatest opportunities lie in the transition zone or Ffridd and lowlands

23 Using Google Earth to display Polyscape layers

24 Conclusions on Polyscape adaptation scenario approach Process of devising rules within layers is instructive in itself! Can be used interactively especially with Google Earth to stimulate debate stakeholders appreciate the integration of different agendas Can be used as a shared space for policy-makers and land managers Helps identify not just win-win areas, but conflicts too so can help explore their resolution But relies on: Good underlying data potential for layer improvements Assumptions on the benefits provided by any land use Simplistic arithmetic used to combined layers potential for other approaches Land use change, rather than land management issues

25 Further developments Build community of the willing (landowners) in Cambrians through further stakeholder engagement Embed adaptation prescriptions within agrienvironment schemes (Glastir) Exploring potential for Payment for Ecosystem Services approach in Cambrians Gain recognition for importance of fridd (transition zone) as a habitat of conservation importance Natural Resource Planning statutory requirement in Wales?