INFRASTRUCTURES AND TRANSPORT. February Research

Transcription

1 INFRASTRUCTURES Research AND TRANSPORT February 2018 Towards the back end of 2017, the service sector regained the ground lost in previous months, off the back of an uptick in transport and commercial activities. Passenger and cargo traffic figures rose at a faster rate. Growth in the construction sector continued to gain speed throughout the year especially in housing, while the public works segment also rebounded. Public tenders rose 39% in 2017, driven by local authorities (+56.3%) and the increase in construction of social housing (+122.3%), despite standing at little more than 488 million euros (3.8% of the total) after the crisis in the sector. Of the total public tenders during the year, 38.5% were for transport projects, with the Ministry of Public Works publishing 15.3% more tenders following a negative start to the year. The Extraordinary Highways Investment Plan (PIC), Renfe s new investment plan to improve the suburban rail network, and real estate transactions on land owned by the Ministry of Public Works such as the Madrid Nuevo Norte site (formerly known as Operation Chamartín) or Aena s investments at El Prat and Barajas airports, have given the construction sector a boost. Motorways were once again in the news in 2018: in addition to the government takeover of bankrupt toll roads, the oldest concessions will expire over the next three years, affecting a third of the toll road network.

2 Index Overview... 2 Indicators: Economic performance... 4 Key indicators... 4 Status of the construction sector... 5 Construction in Europe... 6 Public tendering... 7 Tertiary-sector turnover by activity... 9 Airport traffic Port traffic Motorway traffic Urban and intercity rail passenger traffic Road haulage traffic Aena airports State ports State toll road network

3 Overview The economy continued to enjoy considerable growth and create jobs throughout 2017: GDP rose for the fourth year running (3.1%), up 13% on the lows reached. Meanwhile, the country saw the highest number of jobs created in 12 years, with upwards of 611,000 new Social Security registrations. On the supply side, the surge in industrial activity in late 2017 was welcome news, following a modest start to the year and fuelled by orders from abroad. In Q417, the IPI rose higher than at any time since 2000 (+5.1% year-on-year versus +2.8% in the previous year), ending the year up for the fourth year in a row with growth even outstripping that in 2016 (+3% versus 1.9%). Service sector turnover picked up in November following the slump in previous months, whereby growth at the end of Q417 was similar to that posted in July-September (+6.2% for October- November versus +6.1%). This additional buoyancy derives from greater commercial activity especially vehicle sales and repairs and activity in the transport sector. All indications are that the construction sector performed strongly throughout 2017: its GVA rose in the first nine months by 4.8% year-on-year a rate not seen since The short-term economic indicators for the construction industry support the aforesaid: employment (Social Security registered members) is growing sharply and accelerating (+7.6% year-on-year in January versus +7.1% in Q417); confidence in the sector is at a ten-year high (-3 in January); and the IPI for construction materials is increasingly positive (+7.2% in Q417 up six tenths of a percent on the previous quarter). Public tendering rebounded by 39% at 2017 year-end, standing at billion euros the highest level since Although tendering in all tiers of government is higher, local authorities (+56.3%) and regional governments (+37.6%) have been the most active, while state government tenders are up 22.3% and now represent 30% of the total, primarily due to the drop in tenders published by the Ministry of Public Works (-34.1%). Turning to state-owned companies, ADIF has heavily ramped up its tendering (+268.8%), having started the year in negative territory, although the Spanish State Port Authority has been less active (-39.7%). By project type, house building has seen the highest growth (+122.3%), although it only accounts for 3.8% of the total amount tendered. The lion s share of public works projects comprises transport-related projects, making up 38.5% of total investments following a 31.6% rise during the year. By autonomous community, Q317 data shows that Madrid has seen the greatest volume of public investment, with tenders totalling billion euros. Of this, 44.5% came from the regional government, and 56% has been earmarked for building projects. Catalonia comes second, with a total of billion euros. Unusually, 61.5% of that region s total comprised tenders from local authorities, with regional government tenders making up just 27.7%. The transport sector continues to move full steam ahead thanks to an extremely buoyant tourist sector and significant manufacturing activity. Over the first 11 months of 2017, turnover in the transport sector rose 6.7% year-on-year and almost three times more than in the previous year. Warehousing and support activities for transportation posted particularity high growth (+7.8%). 2

4 Looking at passenger transport figures, Aena s airport network handled 8.2% more passengers in 2017; the ten airports with the highest passenger throughput (83.3% of the total) performed better, especially Valencia (+16.3%), Malaga (11.7%) and Alicante (11.1%) thanks to excellent foreign tourist numbers. Renfe Operadora saw passenger numbers climb 3% to around 486 million at year-end the highest level since The medium-haul to high-speed segment has been most dynamic (+5.4% to November), with the high-speed segment growing by 3.9%. Suburban railways carried 86.8% of passengers and posted 3.2% growth versus 1.3% in According to figures published by the Spanish State Port Authority, the number of people carried by passenger ship increased by 3.9% to November: 4.3% increase in cruise passengers (while the number of ferries/cruise ships docking at Spanish ports rose 7.6%). The Balearic Islands (handling 25% of passengers transported by ship) enjoyed 4.8% growth, while Tenerife (the second busiest port) saw numbers rise by 8.8%. Algeciras (in third slot) suffered a 1.6% decline. Meanwhile, other ports such as Tarragona (+286.4%), A Coruña (+47.5%) and Cartagena (+20.7%) enjoyed considerable growth over the year. Road haulage figures rose more quickly, up 9.2% over the first nine months of the year (+2% in 2016). The greatest growth throughout 2017 was in journeys within Spain, which rose by 9.4% (2.1% in 2016), while trips made by international carriers increased 8.2% (2.7% in 2016). Export loads climbed 7.1% and import loads went up 3.7%. The volume of all cargo transported increased, especially construction materials (+17.4%) linked to the property sector rebounding and petroleum products (+13.7%). Air freight volumes were up 15% at year-end a greater rise than in 2016 (11.2%). Maritime freight transport volumes grew more to November than in 2016, although they did tail off slightly in the latter months of the year. Volumes of general cargo shipped increased by 7.7%, especially solid bulk (+10.6%) and containers (+7.5%). In contrast, transport of other cargo (such as fish and ship supplies) only accounted for 2.3% of total traffic. Barcelona, Las Palmas, Santander, Gijón and Almería enjoyed the highest growth in total traffic, with Pasajes, Seville, Algeciras, Alicante and Malaga posting the greatest declines. Container transport volumes fell 5.7% in Algeciras, in contrast to growth at the ports of Valencia (+4.1%) and Barcelona (+43.6%). Rail freight transport climbed 12.6% between January and November, following a 12% decrease in The improvement was the result of a 17.6% increase in traffic at the national level (which accounts for 83% of the total), while international traffic dropped by 9.6% similar to the reduction of 9.2% in Toll road traffic increased by 4.6% in 2017 slightly below the 5.7% uptick in All motorways performed well; most noteworthy was the sharp rise in traffic on the Madrid- Navalcarnero motorway (+32.1% compared to +16.5% in 2016), Madrid-Toledo motorway (+14.4%), R-4 ring road (Madrid Ocaña, +10.7%) and Alto las Pedrizas-Malaga motorway, with 8.5% more traffic adding to four years of intense growth. 3

5 Economic performance Key indicators 4

6 Status of the construction sector 5

7 Construction in Europe 6

8 Public tendering 7

9 8

10 Tertiary-sector turnover by activity Turnover in 2017 YOY change (%) November Jan-Nov COMMERCE TRANSPORT Land transport Maritime transport Air transport Transport auxiliary services Postal services HORECA IT AND COMMUNICATIONS PROFESSIONAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES GENERAL INDEX

11 Airport traffic Port traffic Motorway traffic 10

12 Urban and intercity rail passenger traffic 11

13 Road haulage traffic 12

14 Aena airports 13

15 14

16 Public Ports 15

17 National toll road network 16

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19 José Ramón Díez Guijarro Nuria Bustamante Martínez Concepción Alvarado Jabaloyes Sergio Díaz Valverde