May 24, 2016 CL , May 19, 2016 PDC , May 11, 2016 Report PDS

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1 Administration Office of the Regional Clerk 1815 Sir Isaac Brock Way, PO Box 1042, Thorold, ON L2V 4T7 Telephone: Toll-free: Fax: May 24, 2016 CL , May 19, 2016 PDC , Report LOCAL AREA MUNICIPALITIES SENT ELECTRONICALLY Municipal Comprehensive Review How We Grow: Phase 1 and 2 Summary Report Regional Council, at its meeting of May 19, 2016, approved the following recommendation of its Planning and Development Committee: That Report, dated, respecting Municipal Comprehensive Review - How We Grow: Phase 1 and 2 Summary Report, BE RECEIVED and the following recommendations BE APPROVED: 1. That Council RECEIVE this report; and 2. That this report BE FORWARDED to the Local Municipalities, the NPCA, Niagara School Boards, Industrial Association, Homebuilders Association and the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing. A copy of Report is enclosed for your information. Yours truly, Ralph Walton Regional Clerk :amn cc: G. Bowie, Planner, B. Dick, Senior Planner, D. Morreale, Manager of Community Planning N. Oakes, Executive Assistant to the Commissioner, Planning & Development Services

2 Page 1 REPORT TO: Planning and Development Committee MEETING DATE: Wednesday, SUBJECT: Municipal Comprehensive Review How We Grow: Phase 1 and 2 Summary Report RECOMMENDATIONS 1. That Council ENDORSE this report; 2. That this report BE FORWARDED to the Local Municipalities, the NPCA, Niagara School Boards, Industrial Association, Homebuilders Association and the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing. KEY FACTS 1. The Municipal Comprehensive Review (MCR) is a key component of the Region s ongoing 2041 Growth Strategy. 2. The MCR is a growth management exercise that will update the Niagara Region Official Plan s population and employment forecasts to the year 2041 in order to conform to the Provincial Growth Plan. 3. Niagara is not growing at a fast pace overall and the growth which is occurring varies significantly across the Region. 4. New housing demand is outpacing the net increase in population, reflecting an aging population. As Niagara s population ages, housing demands increase due to greater proportions of empty-nesters households and single-person households. 5. Niagara is experiencing the out- migration of young adults to education and employment opportunities. 6. Some Niagara communities remain attractive to those over 60 years of age. 7. Recent housing development in the Region suggests that Niagara is presently meeting its intensification target and land supply for intensification is abundant in most Niagara municipalities. 8. The infrastructure capacity to accommodate growth, as well as distribution of land supply, is unevenly distributed across Niagara municipalities, which could pose challenges for planning to meet the Region s growth forecasts.

3 Page 2 CONSIDERATIONS Financial The overall budget for the Municipal Comprehensive Review is $546,000 and was approved in Corporate How We Grow, the Region s Municipal Comprehensive Review is a component of the Niagara 2041 Growth Strategy with other major projects (Transportation Master Plan (TMP) and Water/Wastewater Master Servicing Plan (MSP)). These are integrated to implement and support Niagara s forecasted growth. Phase 3 and Phase 4 of How We Grow will be analyzed through the TMP and MSP, providing greater context on the costs of growth in Niagara and ensuring the sustainable use of existing and planned infrastructure. The outcomes of the MCR, TMP and MSP will also feed directly into the Region s Development Charges Bylaw review. Governmental Partners Government partners are key stakeholders of the 2041 Growth Strategy, due to the legislative requirements of the Municipal Comprehensive Review, Transportation Master Plan and Water/Wastewater Master Servicing Plan. Throughout the MCR process, we have collaborated with Local Municipalities, the Province of Ontario and Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority. We have also interviewed the Industrial Association, Greater Niagara Chamber of Commerce and Homebuilders Association. Local Municipalities, specifically, have been heavily involved in the Growth Strategy and MCR. Local planning staff have reviewed the findings of the Phase 1 and 2 report and have confirmed the land supply calculations within their respective municipalities. Local councils have been (or will be) given the Niagara 2041 overview presentation. Public and/or Service Users Similar to government partners, the public have been and will continue to be stakeholders throughout the MCR with opportunities to provide input via Public Information Centres and open houses. The first round of Public Information Centres was held in November (in Port Colborne, Grimsby and St. Catharines). Two additional rounds will be held across Niagara throughout the remainder of the project.

4 Page 3 ANALYSIS The Provincial Growth Plan The Provincial Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006 ("PIaces to Grow") establishes policies and forecasts to support municipalities in planning for the land base and the infrastructure to accommodate future growth. Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan, which came into effect in June 2013, provided updated forecasts of population for 2031 and extended population and employment forecasts to 2036 and Places to Grow states Niagara is forecasted to grow to a population of 610,000 and employment of 265,000 by 2041 as indicated in Table I. The Region s Official Plan must be brought into conformity with Amendment 2 by June 17, Niagara Region 2031A 2031B Population 511, , , , , , , ,000 Table 1: Growth Plan Schedule 3 Forecasts Purpose of a Municipal Comprehensive Review In order to update the Region s growth strategy and conform to Amendment 2 to Places to Grow, the Region must undertake an MCR. A Regional MCR consists of a review of the Region s population and employment forecasts and subsequent allocations to the local municipalities supported by a land budget which includes a Regional land supply/demand analysis. It also includes a review of Regional Official Plan policies. The MCR that is the subject of this report will need to be approved by the Province under Section 26 of the Planning Act. The core focus of the MCR is to allocate population and employment to municipalities, with the main analysis being within urban areas and assessing the capacity for growth within them. How We Grow will align with Council s direction through the Provinces Coordinated Policy Plan Review, Council s strategic direction and work collaboratively with ongoing Niagara 2041 initiatives, including the Transportation Master Plan, the Water/wastewater Master Servicing Plan, Transit Hubs and Stations, and the urban structure. Niagara s Current Growth Strategy: Niagara 2031 The Region s current Growth Management Strategy, Niagara 2031 implemented the original Growth Plan forecasts by allocating population and employment forecasts at a

5 Page 4 municipal level by 5 year increments. Niagara 2031 was initiated in 2006, adopted by Regional Council in While originally appealed by the Province, it was ultimately approved by the Province in 2014 by way of a settlement agreement. Niagara 2031 presented three growth scenarios, including: Option A: Current Trends Option B: Grow South Option C: Multi-Nodal Ultimately, a combination of growth options was selected (referred to as Option D). The preferred option allocated continued growth to all of Niagara s communities, recognizing the significance of the Economic Gateway and providing strategic allocations of growth to West Lincoln and Pelham. Table 2 shows the existing 2031 population and employment forecasts for Niagara based on the Niagara 2031 Growth Management Strategy. Municipality 2006 Population 2006 to Population Population Growth to 2031 Growth Total Population and Growth Fort Erie 31,200 38,877 7,677 11,790 14,950 3,160 10,837 Grimsby 24,900 30,582 5,682 8,120 9,340 1,220 6,902 Lincoln 22,600 28,583 5,983 10,200 11,670 1,470 7,453 Niagara Falls 85, ,341 14,841 42,800 47,670 4,870 19,711 Niagara-on-the-Lake 15,200 20,688 5,488 11,000 12,690 1,690 7,178 Pelham 16,700 22,387 5,687 4,260 5, ,557 Port Colborne 19,300 20,888 1,588 6,760 7,770 1,010 2,598 St. Catharines 137, , ,750 68,740 2,990 3,609 Thorold 18,900 24,086 5,186 8,010 9,460 1,450 6,636 Wainfleet 6,900 8,195 1,295 1,430 1, ,495 Welland 52,300 61,464 9,164 20,410 23,650 3,240 12,404 West Lincoln 13,700 16,990 3,290 3,840 5,300 1,460 4,750 Niagara Region 444, ,000 66, , ,000 23,630 90,130 Table 2: Summary of Population and Forecasts from Niagara 2031 Niagara 2041Growth Management Strategy Niagara 2041 will build upon the original work of Niagara 2031 while updating policies and forecasts to reflect changes in Regional Council s strategic priorities and extend growth forecasts to 2036 and The intent of Niagara 2041 is to better position Niagara competitively within the Greater Toronto/Hamilton area by supporting an achievable urban vision by creating vibrant, authentic communities that optimize current

6 Page 5 and future infrastructure investments and are efficient and sustainable in terms of compactness, transit supportiveness and energy. How We Grow: Phase 1 and 2 Results The first two phases of the MCR focus on understanding how growth has actually occurred since the implementation of Niagara Before new growth options are presented, we need to look back at what was initially planned and understand the implications of the achieved and unachieved components of Niagara 2031 to date. Legislatively, the Region is required complete an MCR every 5 years, which allows for updating forecasts as new data becomes available. Reviewing and updating growth options every 5 years ensures Niagara is flexible to changing growth, market, economic and societal trends and can respond accordingly. Key findings of the Phase 1 and 2 report are: 1. Niagara is not growing at a fast pace overall and the growth which is occurring varies significantly across the Region. Meanwhile, the pattern of growth, largely reflecting demand for new housing, has not materially changed in recent years. 2. New housing demand is outpacing the net increase in population, reflecting an aging population. 3. The decline in Ontario s manufacturing base in recent years has impacted Niagara s economic prospects, although the Region has other opportunities to enhance its economic outlook going forward. 4. Niagara is experiencing an out- migration of young adults to education and employment opportunities in other GGH communities, while some Niagara communities remain attractive to those over 60 years of age. 5. Recent housing development suggests that Niagara is already meeting its Growth Plan intensification target of 40%, however the extent to which this meets the intent of intensification policy is not known. The supply for intensification is abundant and many Niagara municipalities are planning for higher densities and redevelopment within built up areas. 6. The capacity to accommodate population and employment growth is unevenly distributed across Niagara s municipalities, which could pose challenges for planning to meet the Region s Growth Plan outlook. The distribution of vacant urban designated land across a geographically large and dispersed Region continues to be a threat and in some areas is misaligned with market pressures for growth.

7 Page 6 Niagara Region Land Supply The Niagara Region established a land supply methodology in 2013 to understand where and how much urban land is available for development in Niagara. Through the first two phases of the MCR, the land supply work has been updated to reflect conditions as of January The land supply work is a major component in answering the core questions of the MCR: 1. Is there sufficient land designated for intensification and new greenfield development to accommodate the anticipated growth? 2. Where this growth should be accommodated across the Region? 3. How should this growth be accommodated across Niagara to meet the strategic objectives of Regional Council? Table 3 summarizes the updated land supply information for Niagara Region and will be used as the basis for addressing land needs in the subsequent MCR phases. Regional Vacant Land Supply Inventory (Gross ha) Niagara Region, 2016 Residential Municipality Built Up Area (BUA) Designated Greenfield Area (DGA) Built Up Area (BUA) Designated Greenfield Area (DGA) Total Fort Erie Grimsby Lincoln Niagara Falls Niagara-on-the-Lake Pelham Port Colborne St. Catharines Thorold Welland West Lincoln Niagara Region 706 1, ,602 Table 3: Regional Vacant Land Supply

8 Page 7 The table outlines the existing amount of developable land (free of environmental features, constraints, etc.) within Niagara. Phase 3 of the MCR (Growth Options) will address how various growth options can be accommodated within each municipality in Niagara and address the core land supply questions noted earlier. Land supply needs to be managed to ensure an appropriate quantity of land is available for development across Niagara. The Region can only designate up to a 20 year overall land supply at the time of an MCR 1. Allocating supply consistent with the forecasted population and employment growth is a fundamental challenge in achieving short, medium and long-term growth in Niagara. Individual communities must face the reality that an oversupply of designated urban land impacts local and regional growth objectives by undermining positive market conditions. The opportunity, capacity and likelihood of strong development within a municipality is not exclusively dependent on land supply. Having a large quantity of designated urban lands does not directly lead to strong growth if that land is not strategically located and serviceable it in fact marginalizes both development and viability. Urban development, as directed by the Growth Plan, needs to include intensification and development at higher densities than historically achieved in most of the Greater Golden Horseshoe, especially in Niagara. To achieve an appropriate balance of land supply in Niagara, rationalizing legacy designations that have seen no progress towards development, strengthening of Regional Phasing policies and reallocation of urban lands may be options in allocating growth consistent with the Phase 4 Preferred Growth Option. Next Steps The next phases of the study will involve: Describing and quantifying options for growth over the long term, including the implications on land supply and urban boundaries; Working with stakeholders, the public, and infrastructure planners to evaluate the options and determine a preferred growth option; and Making recommendations for amending the Regional Official Plan based on the preferred growth option. 1 Regional Council supported planning urban area boundaries to 2041, representing a 25 year land supply (PDS ). Niagara is being proactive, knowing that MCRs typically take significant time for Provincial approval, and are ensuring Niagara has an appropriate quantity of designated urban land for when the plan is ultimately approved.

9 Page 8 ALTERNATIVES REVIEWED The Phase 1 and 2 report is a technical review of how Niagara has been growing, key policies in place and the existing land supply in Niagara. The data used in this report was chosen as it best captures the current condition of growth in Niagara. While some of the data pieces date back to 2011 that is simply the most current reliable information available. ORIGIN OF REPORT This report has been prepared to inform Planning and Development Committee, as well as Regional Council, of the conclusions of the MCR (How We Grow) Phase 1 and 2 Summary Report. OTHER PERTINENT REPORTS PDS Implementation of Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe PDS Niagara 2041 Establishing a Growth Strategy PDS Project Initiation Report 2015 Regional Municipal Comprehensive Review PDS Project Awareness Pre-Initiation Report 2015 Regional Municipal Comprehensive Review SUBMITTED & SIGNED BY: Rino Mostacci, MCIP, RPP Commissioner APPROVED & SIGNED BY: Harry Schlange Chief Administrative Officer This report was prepared by Greg Bowie, Planner, Brian Dick, MCIP, RPP, Senior Planner, Diana Morreale, MCIP, RPP, Manager of Community Planning and Rino Mostacci, MCIP, RPP.