Mixed Rules, Mixed Strategies

Transcription

1 Mixed Rules, Mixed Strategies Candidates and Parties in Germany s Electoral System Philip Manow

2 Contents List of Figures and Tables List of Abbreviations Acknowledgements Preface vii xv xvii xix Chapter One Introduction 1 PART I PARTIES IN GERMANY S MIXED-ELECTORAL SYSTEM 19 Chapter Two The Contaminated Cube Rule 21 Chapter Three Of the Cannibalistic Consequences 43 Chapter Four Contesting Districts: Why small parties enter (hopeless) district races 61 Chapter Five Coordinating: Locally or nationally? Or what if German parties suddenly behaved in a Duvergerian fashion? 87 PART II CANDIDATES IN GERMANY S MIXED ELECTORAL SYSTEM 105 Chapter Six Candidatures: Turning candidates into MPs 107 Chapter Seven Combining Candidatures: Hedging against electoral uncertainty 127 PART III MPS IN GERMANY S MIXED ELECTORAL SYSTEM 143 Chapter Eight Careers: Electoral rules and legislative turnover 145 Chapter Nine Characteristics: Electoral pathways to the Bundestag and MPs parliamentary strategies 159 Chapter Ten Conclusion 181 Appendix to Chapter Two 189 Bibliography 195 Index 209

3 List of Figures and Tables Figures Figure 1.1: Types of governments in thirty-six OECD countries, Figure 2.1: Share of constituency votes and district mandates, at the national level 23 Figure 2.2a: Disproportionate conversion of votes into seats, dependent on various values for ρ 26 Figure 2.2b: Disproportionate conversion of votes into seats, dependent on various values for β 27 Figure 2.3: Constituency votes shares and shares of district mandates in the Bundestag elections from Figure 2.4: The cube rule in sixteen federal elections the election level 32 Figure 2.5: The cube rule in sixteen federal elections the state level 34 Figure 2.6: The left-shift of the cube rule curve over sixteen Bundestag elections 38 Figure 3.1: Shares of constituency votes and of district mandates for the CDU/CSU and the SPD at the German state level for the Bundestag elections of 1983 and Figure 3.2: Density functions for the constituency-vote shares of directly elected Bundestag representatives, a comparison of the 8th and 9th legislative periods with the 13th and 14th legislative periods 47 Figure 3.3: The cube rule function for the Bundestag elections , a comparison of the new and old German states 49 Figure 3.4: Partisan bias in the plurality components of the German mixed member electoral system, constituency-vote shares of the CDU/CSU and SPD in the Bundestag elections from 1953 to

4 viii Mixed Rules, Mixed Strategies Figure 3.5: Density distributions of district votes, successful district candidatures, Figure 3.6: The cube rule function for Hamburg and North Rhine-Westphalia for the sixteen Bundestag elections from Figure 3.7: Percentage of directly elected Bundestag members in each of the respective parliamentary parties, 2nd 17th legislative periods 53 Figure 3.8: The polarity of the constituency-vote percentages, sixteen Bundestag elections ( ), 9 16 German states 54 Figure 3.9: Percentage of the constituency vote, percentage of district mandates, and surplus seats for the CDU/CSU and the SPD in the 2005 Bundestag elections 56 Figure 4.1: 1953 federal elections, districts with DRP candidates 69 Figure 4.2: 1953 federal elections, districts with DP candidates 70 Figure 4.3: 1953 federal elections, elections results of the DRP 71 Figure 4.4: 1953 federal elections, elections results of the DP 72 Figure 4.5: Regression discontinuity for candidates of the Green party, Bundestag elections from Figure 4.6: Regression discontinuity for candidates of the Liberal party, Bundestag elections from Figure 5.1: The effective number of parties and the effective number of candidates, Bundestag elections, Figure 5.2: Scenario 1 Seat share of SPD and Green Party in a case of complete local coordination, with CDU/CSU, FDP and PDS/die Linke running separately (proportional division of districts) 98 Figure 5.3: Scenario 2 Seat share of SPD and Green Party in a case of complete local coordination, with full coordination on the centre-right 100 Figure 5.4: Scenario 3 Seat share of CDU/CSU and FDP in a case of complete local coordination, with full coordination of a left block [SPD, Greens and die Linke] (proportional division of districts) 100

5 List of Figures and Tables ix Figure 6.1: Type of candidature, all candidates in per cent 110 Figure 6.2: The number of female and male MPs, Figure 6.3: Share of female MPs of all female candidates, share of female candidates among the total number of candidates, Figure 6.4: Relative list position of male and female candidates, SPD, Figure 6.5: Relative list position of male and female candidates, CDU/CSU Figure 6.6: Share of female candidates among all candidates, parties from the 9th to 17th term 119 Figure 6.7: Type of candidacy for female and male candidates since the 10th term, established parties only 119 Figure 6.8: Sequence-Modal Plot, ideal-typical career-sequences by sex and party, all terms 120 Figure 6.9: Survival estimates for the MPs of the Green Party, by gender 125 Figure 6.10: Survival estimates for CDU/CSU MPs, by gender 125 Figure 6.11: Survival estimates for SPD MPs, by gender 126 Figure 7.1: Percentage of party-list mandates 130 Figure 7.2: The percentages of strictly constituency candidatures, strictly party-list candidatures, and double candidatures among the members of the Bundestag for the legislative periods Figure 7.3: NR-Quotient for the SPD and CDU/CSU, 1st 17th term 133 Figure 7.4a: Fluctuation of the share of district mandates and of the share of the constituency votes for the CDU, Figure 7.4b: Fluctuation of the share of district mandates and of the share of the constituency votes for the SPD, Figure 7.5: Average list rank that secured election to the Bundestag,

6 x Mixed Rules, Mixed Strategies Figure 7.6: Share of safe seats (won by at least a 10 per cent margin), by party in per cent of all constituency seats 138 Figure 7.7: Share of party strongholds (won with at least 55 per cent of all constituency votes), by party in per cent of all constituency seats 138 Figure 8.1: Return rate, re-election rate and short spells in parliament 147 Figure 8.2: Short termers, substitutes, returning and re-elected MPs, as a share of total seats, Figure 8.3: Survival estimates for German MPs, (in days), double candidates with at least two terms in parliament and change or no change of elections modus (list vs. district) 156 Figure 8.4: Survival estimates for German MPs, , list vs. district candidates (in days) 157 Figure 9.1: Index plot, all parties, Figure 9.2: Index plot, CDU/CSU and SPD, Figure 9.3: Regional representation of CDU district- and list-mps and of double candidate list-mps in the Transportation Committee, Figure 9.4: Regional representation of SPD district- and list-mps and of double candidate list-mps in the Agriculture Committee, Figure 10.1: Vote-seat translation in the plurality tier, federal elections Figure 10.2: The left-shift of the cube rule curve over seventeen Bundestag elections 185 Figure 10.3: Constituency votes shares and shares of district mandates in the Bundestag elections, 1953 to Figure A2.1: Cumulative density function of the SPD (nominal) vote shares at the district and voting district level 192 Figure A2.2: Cumulative density function of the CDU (nominal) vote shares at the district and voting district level 193

7 List of Figures and Tables xi Tables Table 1.1: Numbers and types of governments in thirty-six OECD countries, Table 1.2: Turnout, effective number of parties, disproportionality, advantage ratio and polarisation in thirty-six OECD-countries, Table 2.1: District mandate shares for CDU/CSU and SPD in the Bundestag elections from , dependent on their share of the constituency vote 24 Table 2.2a: Estimated ρ and β, Bundestag elections 36 Table 2.2b: Estimated ρ and β, German states 37 Table 2.3: Determinants of disproportionality the β-parameter 39 Table 2.4: Determinants of disproportionality the ρ-parameter 39 Table 3.1: β as explanatory factor for surplus seats 57 Table 4.1: Share of contested districts, Liberals and Green Party 67 Table 4.2a: Candidate effects for the Deutsche Reichspartei and the Deutsche Partei in the 1953 elections 74 Table 4.2b: Candidate effects for the Deutsche Reichspartei and the Deutsche Partei in the 1953 and 1957 elections, a fixed-effects model 74 Table 4.3: Share of Liberal (FDP) and Green district candidates with a dual mandate 75 Table 4.4: Liberal (FDP) and Green MPs with a dual candidacy 76 Table 4.5: Quasi-incumbents as district candidates and the party s district PR-vote share, Liberal Party ( ) OLS regression 77 Table 4.6: Quasi-incumbents as district candidates and the party s district PR-vote share, the Green party ( ) OLS regression 77 Table 4.7: A regression-discontinuity analysis of quasi-incumbency effects, Liberal candidates,

8 xii Mixed Rules, Mixed Strategies Table 4.8: A regression-discontinuity analysis of quasi-incumbency effects, Green candidates, Table 4.9a: Quasi-incumbency effects for the Liberal party, , a fixed-effects model 84 Table 4.9b: Quasi-incumbency effects for the Green Party, , a fixed-effects model 84 Table 5.1: Seats per party under local coordination between CDU/CSU and FDP as well as between SPD and Greens 101 Table 6.1: Sequence elements for analysing German MPs political careers 111 Table 6.2: Sequence-frequencies, candidates and MPs, Table 6.3: Sequence-frequencies with identical order of episodes, candidates and MPs, Table 6.4: Political career sequences, male and female candidates, all parties and all legislative terms 121 Table 6.5: Age at first entry into the Bundestag, female and male MPs 123 Table 6.6: Restricted mean, MPs of CDU/CSU, SPD, Liberals, Greens and the Left, by gender 123 Table 6.7: Log-rank test for equality of survivor functions, all MPs by gender 124 Table 8.1: Restricted mean of German MPs, in days 148 Table 8.2: Return and re-election rates in Germany s sixteen general elections 149 Table 8.3: Determinants of turnover: a replication of the analysis of Matland and Studlar with the additional data of 13 German elections 153 Table 8.4: The return rate of list candidates 154 Table 8.5: Median parliamentary tenure for pure list- and pure district-mps 158 Table 9.1: Sequence elements for analysing German MPs political careers 167 Table 9.2: Three examples of political career sequences 168

9 List of Figures and Tables xiii Table 9.3: Frequency of sequences with identical elements, all parties 169 Table 9.4: Frequency of sequences with identical elements, CDU/CSU and SPD 170 Table 9.5: Chances of being a member in the Transportation, Agriculture, Defence Committees, , logistic regression odds ratios 175 Table 10.1: rho (ρ) and beta (β) in 2013 as compared to previous federal elections 183 Table A2.1: Standard deviations for Christian and Social Democrats 190 Table A2.2: OLS, regression of ρ at the election level on the standard deviation of the vote for Social or Christian Democrats, Table A2.3: Summary statistics for CDU and SPD vote share in the 2009 federal election in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia 192