New analysis indicates that Scottish people prefer the option of more powers devolved to Holyrood but not full independence

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1 New analysis indicates that Scottish people prefer the option of more powers devolved to Holyrood but not full independence On September 18, the people of Scotland are being invited to vote Yes or No on the question Should Scotland be an independent country. At various stages of the referendum campaign, reference has been made to the fact that a third option labelled devo max, which would result in more devolution of powers to the Scottish Parliament but stopping short of full independence, would be the first preference of a significant proportion of the electorate. Indeed, as has been recognised by many of those involved in the debate, the choice between independence and remaining within the Union is a complex issue but the method being used is a simple one, namely a binary referendum. Would a more sophisticated voting procedure be a more appropriate way to address the complex nature of the issue? The Modified Borda Count (MBC) is a method designed to facilitate a better understanding of complex issues to better reflect the various shades of opinion which exist within the population. It allows individuals to consider a number of different options which are presented to them and then rank these options in order of preference. Recently, an MBC survey was undertaken by the de Borda Institute using research conducted by TNS, to demonstrate its applicability in the context of the current constitutional debate in Scotland. A representative sample of 859 adults aged 16 years and over in Scotland was presented with six scenarios for the future status of Scotland. Respondents were asked to rank the six options in order of preference, from their most preferred to their sixth most preferred option. Based on the ranking given by each respondent, points were awarded to each option; these were then weighted and added up across the total sample. The outcome, in order of popularity, and the total number of points awarded to each option, is featured in the following table. (Please note that the calculation of points was based on a total of 805 respondents who identified at least one preferred option further details of the scoring system are outlined in the Notes). 1

2 1 st Option B - Scotland in the UK with devo-max powers in Holyrood (b) in the EU (subject to an all-uk in/out referendum) 2 nd Option A - Scotland in the UK with existing powers in Holyrood (b) in the EU (subject perhaps to an all-uk in/out referendum) 3 rd Option C - Scotland in a federal UK with devo-max powers in Holyrood (b) in the EU 4 th Option D - An independent Scotland (a) under the Queen, with full powers in Holyrood subject to the joint currency of controlled by Westminster, (c) in NATO but non-nuclear. 5 th Option E - An independent Scotland (a) under the Queen, with full powers in Holyrood subject to the joint currency of controlled by Brussels 6 th Option F - An independent Scotland (a) under an elected president, with full powers in Holyrood and its own currency, (c) not in NATO The distribution of scores from just under 2,100 to just over 2,700 does suggest that there are wideranging opinions within the Scottish population. Devo Max, offering increased powers to Holyrood, (Option B) emerged as the most popular selection. This top preference was closely followed by (Option A) which represents the status quo with the Holyrood Parliament. There was then quite a gap in terms of the scores to the third preference (Option C) which introduced an alternative version of devo max with Scotland part of a federal UK Overall, this would suggest that a composite of Options A and B, involving further devolution of powers to the Scottish 2

3 Parliament while staying within the current structure of the United Kingdom would attract the highest degree of support of the Scottish people. Looking at the three independence options (Options D, E and F), it is significant that the option which was most preferred was the one which could be regarded as independent lite with sterling being retained as the currency with the Queen as Head of State and Scotland being within the European Union and NATO. According to Peter Emerson, Director, the de Borda Institute: With a complex issue such as the future constitutional status of Scotland, dangers exist in reducing the electorate s options to just a Yes or No as the final outcome may not accurately reflect the collective will of voters. Precedents from other countries such as was the case in New Zealand in 1992 demonstrate how multi-option referendum can work. This special analysis using the MBC approach outlines how the Scottish voters may have voted if they had been given a broader choice. Tom Costley, Head of TNS in Scotland, added: A survey of this nature is valuable to all sides in the Scottish independence referendum debate. Whilst the decision on the day of the referendum boils down to a simple Yes or No vote, this survey highlights the nuances which are involved in people s thinking which an either-or referendum cannot accurately reflect. 3

4 Notes to editors 1. A sample of 859 adults aged 16 and over was interviewed in 39 Scottish Parliament constituencies across Scotland between 9 th and 27 th July All interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing) and quota sampling. 2. Of 859 people interviewed, 11 chose not to participate. Of the 848 who did take part, 43 submitted invalid votes, either by expressing no preferences, or by failing to state a first preference. Of the 805 valid votes, 659 were a full slate of six preferences, with over 150 different sets of preferences cast. The other 146 were partial lists (i.e. between five and one preferences), and these also had numerous variations.. 3. For those who ranked all six options in terms of preference, their first preference was awarded six points, their second preference five points and so on. However, if a respondent only selected say three preferences, their first preference was awarded three points, their second choice two points and their last preference one point. 4. To ensure the sample was representative of the adult population of Scotland, it was weighted to match population profile estimates in the analysis. The number of points awarded by each respondent were weighted accordingly. About TNS TNS UK advises clients on specific growth strategies around new market entry, innovation, brand switching and stakeholder management, based on long-established expertise and market-leading solutions. With a presence in over 80 countries, TNS has more conversations with the world's consumers than anyone else and understands individual human behaviours and attitudes across every cultural, economic and political region of the world. TNS is part of Kantar, one of the world's largest insight, information and consultancy groups. TNS UK was awarded the Market Research Society's (MRS) Large Agency of the Year About The de Borda Institute The de Borda Institute promotes the use of inclusive voting procedures on all contentious questions of social choice. This applies specifically to decision-making, be it for the electorate in regional/national polls, their elected representatives in councils and parliaments, or for members of a local community group, a company board, a co-operative, and so on. All enquiries about the de Borda Institute or the analysis of this research should be forwarded to the director, Peter Emerson: pemerson@deborda.org

5 Question READ OUT: As you may know, there is currently a lot of debate about the future of Scotland. We would like to ask you a question which is designed to establish which possible future of Scotland people would most prefer to see. This is a six-option, multi-option survey, based on the policies of political parties in Scotland. We would like you to read through the six possible options, and then rate the six options in your order of preference, indicating your 1 st preference, 2 nd preference, and so on. We will then analyse the data, and the winner will be the option which gets the highest average preference. To have a full influence in the survey, we ask you to rate all six options in your order of preference, but a partial vote will also be accepted. The analysis will be based on a points system. If you list all six preferences, your 1 st preference gets 6 points, your 2 nd preference gets 5, and so on. But if you submit a partial list, if for example you list only your 1 st and 2 nd preferences, then these two options get 2 and 1 points. So it s best to submit a full list. Option A Scotland in the UK with existing powers in Holyrood (b) in the EU (subject perhaps to an all-uk in/out referendum) and Option B Scotland in the UK with devo-max powers in Holyrood (b) in the EU (subject to an all-uk in/out referendum) and Option C Scotland in a federal UK with devo-max powers in Holyrood (b) in the EU and Option D An independent Scotland (a) under the Queen, with full powers in Holyrood subject to the joint currency of controlled by Westminster, and (c) in NATO but non-nuclear. Option E An independent Scotland (a) under the Queen, with full powers in Holyrood subject to the joint currency of controlled by Brussels, and Option F An independent Scotland (a) under an elected president, with full powers in Holyrood and its own currency, but (c) not in NATO. 5