The End of the Spanish Two-Party System? Vote Drain and no one s Gain

Transcription

1 JULY in focus The Barcelona Centre for International Affairs Brief The End of the Spanish Two-Party System? Vote Drain and no one s Gain CIDOB Barcelona Centre for International Affairs. July Since the early nineties, the PSOE (Socialist Party) and the PP (Popular Party conservative-), have been gathering around 75 of all vote. This dualization has been favoured by the formula d Hondt used in the Spanish electoral law to allocate seats in the Parliament, deliberately favouring the mainstream political options. In the current Parliament, there are only 4 national parties, the rest being mainly regional parties with strong support in their feuds, especially at local and regional elections. Graph 1. Evolution of a de facto two-party system in Spanish Elections (1993-) PP/PSOE Others political options* Turnout * Including blank or invalid ballot papers Source: Official Data from the Spanish Ministry of Home Affairs, in focus CIDOB. JULY 1

2 CIDOB Barcelona Centre for International Affairs. July Is there a raising alternative? Since January 12 the two main parties are rapidly loosing affections, both of them at the same time. In the latest general election (November ) a recently created political party (UPyD, Center-Left National Party, founded in September 7) has been able to capture some discontent (rising from 1 seat in to 5 in ). At the same time, IU (Coalition of left-wing parties-communist and Greens) has attracted a slice of the progressive vote (from 2 seats to 11). Nonetheless, Graph 2 shows how, in a potential coming election, the PP would win again (34), followed by the PSOE (28.2), with IU (9.9) and UPyD (7.4), far away from becoming majoritarian. Graph 2. Vote estimation for the coming election (four national major parties)* PP PSOE IU UPyD * Note: This graph uses Vote Estimation, an indicator that results from a statistical model created by the CIS to anticipate the final result of an election. It answers the question: Who would win?. Graphs (3 and 4) will be using Vote Intention, a raw indicator that takes more into consideration abstention and undecided vote, and answers the question For who would you vote?. 2 in focus CIDOB. JULY

3 Who will gain from this drain? Graph 3. Aggregated support for the two major parties vs. abstention (quarterly) * 7 PP+PSOE Abstention 6 CIDOB Barcelona Centre for International Affairs. July Note: * Share of Vote intention. A great deal of traditional voters seems to be evaporating from the political system, in form of potential abstention. High records for the abstention option that appear as vote intention (22.7 in April ) usually become much higher at election day. In April, abstention was 12.9, while the share of undecided was 17. In that year s election, the final abstention was 31 (see graph 4). in focus CIDOB. JULY 3

4 CIDOB Barcelona Centre for International Affairs. July Graph 4. Mapping abstention: how did we get here? * Year of the poll (vote intention) Abstention - Vote to to major parties 35 Spanish Financial Crisis Popular Party Govt. Socialist Party Govt.... Finish here President: M. Rajoy (-) Takes office at the peak of the economic crisis. 5 million people unemployed. EU s dictates austerity fiscal policies and labour market reforms. Risk of intervention. Regional territorial tensions deepen. Abstention on the rise. Two-party polarization declines to low records. And what really happened? The disparity between intention and real vote in the latest election shows slight differences on party s distribution, but much higher records for abstention. Those found doubtful in intention polls, finally decide not to vote. Year of general election Abstention over total potential voters, two major parties Abstention () pass through... President: J.L Rodriguez Zapatero (-) Troops out of Iraq. First term focused on progressive legislation. Second term affected by the financial crisis. Unemployed rise from 1.9 milion in 7 to 4. 9 milion in. Growing abstention. Start here President: J.M Aznar (1996-) Polarization of the Civil Society. Spanish Troops in Afghanistan and Irak. Abstention declined 6-65 Support to two major parties () Note: * Vote intention (as in April) and final election results. 4 in focus CIDOB. JULY

5 Hard times for any government Polls on government approval in mid revealed that Spaniards were not satisfied with ruling PSOE. In November s general election, voters provided absolute majority to the PP. Almost immediately, the new government became as unpopular as it had been its predecessor. Graph 5. Share of Approval of the Spanish Government (7-) 9 Elections Nov- CIDOB Barcelona Centre for International Affairs. July Jan-13 Not known Very bad Bad Regular Good Very good in focus CIDOB. JULY 5

6 CIDOB Barcelona Centre for International Affairs. July Confidence lost According to a cover story of the New York Times (5/5/), 1, politicians are being scrutinized in Spain in cases related to corruption. The proliferation of political scandals, mainly related to the appropriation of public funds and illegal party funding, have severely affected the image of political parties and its leaders. Even the Royal family, traditionally one of the most popular institutions, is being damaged by scandals. Corruption and politicians have consequently climbed to the second and fourth position amongst Spaniards major concerns. Graph 6. Spaniards main concerns (5-) 9 Unemployment Corruption and fraud Economy Politics, parties and polititians Migration Terrorism January-5 June-5 January-6 June-6 January-7 June-7 January-8 June-8 January-9 June-9 January- June- January-11 June-11 January-12 June-12 January-13 Mar-13 6 in focus CIDOB. JULY