Harris County Flood Control District Bond Election Survey

Transcription

1 Harris County Flood Control District Bond Election Survey Figure 1. This August, Harris County voters will be asked to approve a 2.5 billion dollar bond to fund flood risk reduction projects throughout the county. How likely are you to vote in this August bond election? Are you certain to vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, will not vote, or are you uncertain if you will vote in this August's County bond election? Certain 36.2% Very likely 28.6% Somewhat likely 14.5% Will not vote 20.7% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% N = 705 Note: Nonresponses ( Don t know and Refused ) are excluded. 1

2 Figure 2. According to the Harris County Budget Office, the bond would increase property taxes by $5 a year beginning in 2020 for a person whose home is worth $230,000, increasing to $50 a year by A homeowner whose home is worth $300,000 will pay about $7 more in property taxes per year beginning in 2020, increasing to $80 a year by Persons over 65 whose homes are worth less than $200,000 do not pay county taxes and would not pay any additional property taxes. Would you vote for or against the bond issue, or are you uncertain how you would vote? Vote for the bond 55.0% Vote against the bond 9.8% Unsure 35.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% N = 788 Note: Nonresponses ( Don t know and Refused ) are excluded. 2

3 Figure 3. Support for bond by likely voters Vote for the bond 51.8% 62.1% Vote against the bond 9.5% 9.9% Unsure 28.4% 38.3% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Yes No N = 788 Note: Yes means that respondents are likely voters who are certain to vote in this August bond election and No otherwise. 3

4 Figure 4. Support for bond by damage to residence due to Hurricane Harvey Vote for the bond 52.0% 60.8% Vote against the bond 9.3% 10.1% Unsure 29.9% 38.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Yes No N = 787 Note: Yes means respondents who had damage to their residence due to Hurricane Harvey. 4

5 Figure 5. Support for bond by flooding experience Vote for the bond 56.0% 55.0% Vote against the bond 7.6% 12.4% Unsure 31.7% 37.8% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Yes No N = 781 Note: Yes means respondents who or whose family members experienced a personal injury, property damage, or had to evacuate in face of severe weather since

6 Figure 6. Support for bond by age Vote for the bond Vote against the bond Unsure 18.3% 22.7% 6.0% 8.4% 8.5% 11.3% 35.8% 39.7% 30.6% 30.9% 58.3% 51.9% 60.8% 57.8% 59.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% N = 743 6

7 Figure 7. Support for bond by education Vote for the bond Vote against the bond Unsure 4.2% 11.1% 16.0% 14.7% 8.3% 6.4% 11.9% 22.8% 35.1% 40.0% 33.9% 39.8% 72.0% 51.5% 68.9% 53.8% 60.8% 49.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% N = 779 Less than high school High school graduate Business/trade school Attend college College graduate Post graduate 7

8 Figure 8. Support for bond by partisanship Vote for the bond 57.7% 62.8% 51.2% 46.8% Vote against the bond 9.5% 8.2% 8.3% 15.9% Unsure 32.9% 29.0% 40.5% 37.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Republican Democrat Independent Others N = 732 8

9 Figure 9. Support for bond among first wave respondents who opposed raising property taxes Vote for the bond 40.4% Vote against the bond 12.7% Unsure 46.9% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% N = 202 Note: The data come from the respondents who opposed raising property taxes to mitigate the impact of severe weather events in the December wave of survey. 9

10 Figure 10. Support for bond among first wave respondents who supported raising property taxes. Vote for the bond 70.9% Vote against the bond 5.3% Unsure 23.8% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% N = 211 Note: The data come from the respondents who supported raising property taxes to mitigate the impact of severe weather events in the December wave of survey. 10

11 Table 1. Do you support or oppose this policy proposed and adopted by area governments to protect the Houston area from the effects of severe weather? Policy Support Oppose Nonresponse A program to buy homes in areas that have repeatedly flooded with local state and federal moneys Construction of a new reservoir to protect the western portion of the Houston area Greater restrictions on construction in flood plains New building codes that require homes built in flood prone areas be elevated/raised to avoid flooding 59.6% 32.9% 7.6% 81.5% 8.9% 9.6% 84.1% 10.2% 5.7% 84.0% 11.4% 4.6% Widening bayous and channels 82.4% 8.6% 9.0% N = 813 Note: Nonresponse includes Don t know and Refused. 11

12 Table 2. Individual willingness to pay property taxes to implement the infrastructure that protects to reduce the risk of flood events Flood events 1.4% 5% 10% No increase Severe flood events 36.5% 22.3% 8.6% 32.6% year flood events 40.4% 19.8% 6.5% 33.3% year flood events 39.2% 15.6% 10.9% 34.3% year flood events 45.3% 16.1% 6.8% 31.8% 178 N 12

13 Figure 11. Some people believe that much of the money from the $2.5 billion bond issue for flood control will go to politically connected developers and construction firms instead of directly helping risk reduction projects throughout the county. Do you share this concern? Are you extremely concerned, very concerned, somewhat concerned, not very concerned, or not at all concerned? Extremely concerned Very concerned 21.5% 26.0% Somewhat concerned 34.4% Not very concerned Not at all concerned 8.0% 8.0% Nonresponse 2.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% N = 813 Note: Nonresponse includes Don t know and Refused. 13

14 Figure 12. Concern about much of the money from the $2.5 billion bond issue for flood control going to politically connected developers and construction firms instead of directly helping risk reduction projects throughout the county Extremely concerned 22.0% 26.9% Very concerned Somewhat concerned 26.6% 27.7% 33.5% 35.2% Not very concerned Not at all concerned 6.5% 8.1% 5.5% 8.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% Likely voters All voters N = 788 Note: Likely voters are those who are certain to vote in this August bond election. 14

15 Figure 13. How confident are you that your elected county and city representatives know how to reduce/mitigate the negative impact of future flooding in the Houston area? Are you very confident, somewhat confident, not confident, or not confident at all? Very confident 7.4% Somewhat confident 52.2% Not confident 22.7% Not confident at all 17.7% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% N = 791 Note: Nonresponses ( Don t know and Refused ) are excluded. 15

16 Figure 14. Confidence in elected county and city representatives knowing how to reduce/mitigate the negative impact of future flooding in the Houston area Very confident 5.4% 7.4% Somewhat confident 48.7% 52.2% Not confident Not confident at all 23.6% 22.7% 22.4% 17.7% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Likely voters All voters N = 791 Note: Likely voters are those who are certain to vote in this August bond election. 16

17 Figure 15. Do you support government funding for the development of renewable energy (e.g. solar, wind, thermal)? 100.0% 80.0% 73.5% 60.0% 40.0% 23.3% 20.0% 3.2% 0.0% Yes No Nonresponse N = 813 Note: Nonresponse includes Don t know and Refused. 17

18 Figure 16. Do you support the government regulation of greenhouse emissions gas? 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 56.8% 40.0% 20.0% 29.1% 14.1% 0.0% Yes No Nonresponse N = 813 Note: Nonresponse includes Don t know and Refused. 18

19 Table 3. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? Statement Agree Disagree N Global warming poses a threat to future severe flooding in the Houston area New construction in flood prone areas will result in more severe flooding 67.6% 32.4% % 25.2% 767 The state of Texas should spend money from its rainy day fund to assist local communities with recovery after flooding events Note: Nonresponses ( Don t know and Refused ) are excluded. 87.7% 12.3%

20 Figure 17. How many times since 2001 have you or any member of your immediate family experienced a personal injury, property damage, or had to evacuate from your home in face of severe weather? Once 15.8% Twice 15.4% Three times 7.3% More than three times 4.8% No prior experience 56.7% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% N = 813 Note: No prior experience includes non-responses ( Don t know and Refused ) and those who answered No to the question about whether they or their family members have experienced a personal injury, property damage, or had to evacuate in face of severe weather since

21 Figure 18. Did you have to move from your residence because of Hurricane Harvey? 100.0% 80.0% 80.3% 60.0% 40.0% 19.7% 20.0% 0.0% N = 813 Yes No 21

22 Figure 19. Have you moved back into your residence, are you still living in temporary housing, or have you relocated to a new residence? Back in home 43.0% Still in temporary housing 18.8% Relocated to new residence 36.8% Nonresponse 1.4% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% N = 162 Note: 1. Only those who answered Yes to the question about whether they had to move from their residence because of Hurricane Harvey were asked this follow-up question. 2. Nonresponse includes Don t know and Refused. 22

23 Figure 20. Have you lived in the Houston area all your life, or did you move here from somewhere else? 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 61.0% 40.0% 38.5% 20.0% 0.4% 0.0% Lifetime resident Moved to Houston Nonresponse N = 813 Note: Nonresponse includes Don t know and Refused. 23

24 Figure 21. How long have you lived in the Houston metropolitan area? 0-5 years 12.2% 6-10 years years years years years years years 8.8% 6.6% 7.9% 7.0% 8.9% 5.9% 8.4% More than 40 years 28.9% Nonresponse 5.5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% N = 813 Note: Nonresponse includes Don t know and Refused. 24

25 Figure 22. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or something else? Republican 23.9% Democrat 31.5% Independent 23.3% Others 13.4% Nonresponse 8.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% N = 813 Note: Nonresponse includes Don t know and Refused. 25

26 Figure 23. In which one of the following racial or ethnic categories would you place yourself? White or Anglo 49.2% Black or African American 20.4% Hispanic or Latino 20.2% Asian American 2.4% Others 6.0% Nonresponse 1.8% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% N = 813 Note: Nonresponse includes Don t know and Refused. 26

27 Figure 24. Respondents Age years old 6.0% years old 15.6% years old 14.2% years old 35.0% 65 years old and above 29.3% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% N = 766 Note: Nonresponses ( Don t know and Refused ) are excluded. 27

28 Figure 25. I'll read some annual family income categories. Could you please stop me when I reach the category that corresponds to your family income? Under $25, % $25,001 to $50, % $50,001 to $100, % $100,001 to $150, % More than $150, % Nonresponse 16.9% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% N = 813 Note: Nonresponse includes Don t know and Refused. Technical Note A total of 815 respondents in Harris County were interviewed in June - July Since we oversampled areas where flooding was expected to have happened, an unrepresentative sample of owner and renter occupied households occurred. Therefore, we employed probability weights for the sample to reflect the current share of renter and owner occupied households based on the U.S. Census Bureau s 2016 American Community Survey (ACS) for Harris County. Due to the use of probability weighting, the resulting number of observations for analysis is reduced to