Political participation at popular votes in Switzerland
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1 Political participation at popular votes in Switzerland Anja Heidelberger Postdoctoral Researcher Année Politique Suisse, University of Bern Congress of Citizen Participation, Donostia-San Sebastian November 23 th & 24 th 2017 ANNÉE POLITIQUE SUISSE INSTITUT FÜR POLITIKWISSENSCHAFT UNIVERSITÄT BERN FABRIKSTRASSE 3012 BERN
2 Structure of this presentation Participation at the local level Direct democratic participation at the national level Why is participation so low? Which factors influence participation in Switzerland? Challenges of direct democracy
3 Participation on a local level Citizen assemblies in 80% of all Swiss municipalities At least once a year (mostly twice) In 60% of them, the citizen assembly decides on all local matters People vote by open show of hands Parliaments Mostly in cities, bigger municipalities
4 (Non-systematic) evidence from the local level Participation Low turnout: up to 25% in smallest municipalities; 3-4% in biggest municipalities Decreasing participation over time Representation Overrepresentation of older voters, long-time residents, men But not of education or income Quality of Democracy Higher values of political interest, trust in authorities, satisfaction with democracy Ladner & Bühlmann (2007: 261 f.); Stadelmann-Steffen & Dermont (2015); Ladner
5 The Swiss semi-direct democratic system Popular votes: up to 4 times a year popular votes or elections on cantonal or communal level simultaneously Instruments: People have more possibilities for input, when an issue is more important Mandatory Referendum Popular Initiative Facultative Referendum
6 The Swiss semi-direct democratic system Influence of popular votes on the political system Pressure to include strong minorities, consensus democracy (Neidhart 1970) Coalition government: stable composition of government Comparatively low importance of elections (Powell 1982) Low participation in elections (2015: 48.5%) (Freitag & Stadelmann-Steffen 2010) High participation at popular votes? Low mean participation rate: 44%, lower than at elections
7 percent Why is participation so low? High variation in turnout between voting days: 27% - 78% Turnout in Swiss popular votes
8 share of citizens Own figure based on data from Dermont (2014: 47) Turnout in several popular votes participated 15 times participated 14 times participated 13 times participated 12 times participated 11 times participated 10 times participated 9 times participated 8 times participated 7 times participated 6 times participated 5 times participated 4 times participated 3 times participated twice participated once no participation Register data from the city of St. Gallen Almost 20 percent never participate About 15 percent always participate 50 percent participate 8 out of 15 times About 80 percent of all people participate, just not at all possibilities they get
9 Determinants of participation Same individual-level factors as with electoral turnout Ballot specific determinants: Content and topic (Marques de Bastos 1993, Goldberg et al. 2015) Difficulty (Nidegger 1993) Perceived relevance (Goldberg et al. 2015) Instruments: Initiative vs. facultative referendum vs. mandatory referendum (Vatter 2014) Conflict constellation: share of governing parties (Kriesi 2005) : Great coalition vs. center-left vs. center-right coalition vs. unholy alliance What about campaigning and finances?
10 Participation in % Number of ads Determinants: Campaign Can attendance at popular votes be bought? Number of ads in 52 newspapers (Année Politique Suisse) Only main proposals from significant relationship
11 Support of government position in % Can results of a popular vote be bought? Challenger Government camp Campaign spending (ln)
12 Can results of a popular vote be bought? Complex relationship between success and campaign finances Factors counteracting relationship Campaign managers react to closeness No campaign, when success is certain Predispositions Campaign can help the opponents as well Factors reinforcing relationship Conflict configuration (share of voters behind a position) Different receptiveness to campaign messages
13 Yes-votes in % Can results of a popular vote be bought? Share of campaign spending in favor of proposal in %
14 Can results of a popular vote be bought? The empirical literature is not sure Money certainly helps You probably can t gain to much support, but if the vote is close But: the most disputed proposals are least affected
15 Challenges of direct democracy: Minority rights Parliament decides upon validity of a popular initiative Only criteria: Consistency of form cohesion of subject matter observance of mandatory international law (ius cogens) In dubio pro popolo
16 Challenges of direct democracy: Minority rights No formal protection for minorities But: initiatives only change constitution, parliament has to draft the according laws Institutional arrangements: Necessity of cantonal majority
17 Conclusion Direct democratic institutions have a strong impact on the Swiss political system Benefits: High political confidence & interest, frequent discussion about issues Disadvantages: Tyranny of the majority? Minority rights?
18 Thank you for your attention!
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