ONTARIO LEADERSHIP EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM EST, NOVEMBER 7, 2016 PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK

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1 ONTARIO LEADERSHIP EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM EST, NOVEMBER 7, 2016 PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,524 Ontario residents by Smart IVR on November 2nd, A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.95%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age, gender and geography based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

2 A2 "Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia. WYNNE LIBERALS HEADED FOR DISASTER IN 2018 November 7, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds a grim electoral picture for Kathleen Wynne s Ontario Liberals with 58% of Ontarians saying the Premier should resign. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll was conducted November 2, 2016, with 2,524 respondents it has a margin of error of +/- 1.95%, 19 times out of 20. With the next Ontario election just a little more than 18 months away, Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals continue to plumb new depths as they now trail both the Patrick Brown led PCs and the Andrea Horwath led NDP said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. Wynnes' approvals continue to drive down these numbers as her approval is now just 15% compared to 67% who disapprove including 30% who strongly disapprove. There is very little good news for the current government and it may get worse as the effects of the recent charges against Ontario Liberal Party staff and operatives continue to dominate headlines. The really bad news is, there are two current by-elections underway that may also be affected by the latest scandal. Niagara West Glanbrook was vacated by former PC leader Tim Hudak and is likely to be held by the PCs with the likeliest competition coming from the NDP who hold nearby Niagara Falls. In Ottawa-Vanier, a close contest in a Liberal fortress riding could point to the beginning of the end for the 13-year incumbent Ontario Liberal Government. A loss in Ottawa-Vanier would be unthinkable, and could prompt an early exit by the embattled Premier. Andrea Horwath continues to lead approval measures, now at 59% approval, including 26% strongly, and just 30% disapproval with 17% strongly disapproving. As Kathleen Wynne s fortunes fall, left and centre left voters across Ontario are turning to Horwath. Her high approvals have now started to register on the voter intentions as the NDP now has the support of 27% among decided and leaning voters across Ontario compared to 25% for the Wynne led Liberals. Patrick Brown continues to make gains in approvals and awareness. Just 19% of Ontario voters are not aware of Brown and his approval now rivals Horwath at 51% including 23% strongly approving. His disapproval matches Horwath at 30%, but just 9% strongly disapprove of Brown. The PCs continue to lead among voters with 43% among decided and leaning voters. The lead in Eastern Ontario of 20 points over the Liberals (48% to 28%) could point to a closer than expected result in Ottawa-Vanier where star candidate Andre Marin is running for the Brown led PCs. The really, really bad news for Ontario Liberals is that 59% of Ontario voters are following the recent charges against Ontario Liberal Party staff and operatives, including 42% either Very or Somewhat closely. When asked if they believe the Premier was involved in the case, 53% believe she may have, although just 2% believe she was very involved and 11% somewhat. Almost 6 in 10 people (58%) said the Premier should resign compared to less than 2 in 10 (17%) who said she should not. A quarter of Ontarians were not sure whether the Premier should resign or not. If there is a silver lining in these numbers for the Liberals, it would be that they continue to lead in the 416 with 35% to the PCs 31% and NDP s 27% among decided and leaning voters. The rest of the numbers point to a possible wipeout in the 905, South Central and Southwest with divided fortunes in Eastern and Northern Ontario, finished Maggi. About Mainstreet Research Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election Available from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca For More Information: David Valentin, david@mainstreetresearch.ca,

3 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? A3

4 A4 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? Male Female Liberal 16% 26% 12% 23% 19% 19% PC 36% 35% 39% 34% 37% 35% NDP 22% 17% 27% 17% 21% 21% Green PC Undecided 8% 18% 5% 18% 3% 18% 4% 23% 5% 18% 5% 20% Sample ,199 1,325 ON SW SC North East Liberal 19% 13% 16% 31% 17% 15% 16% PC 36% 40% 39% 27% 37% 33% 43% NDP 21% 31% 13% 21% 19% 23% 14% Green 5% 6% 5% 6% 3% 3% 7% Undecided 19% 10% 27% 15% 24% 26% 20% Sample 2,

5 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? [DECIDED & LEANING] A5

6 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? [DECIDED & LEANING] A6

7 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kathleen Wynne is handling her job as Premier of Ontario? A7

8 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kathleen Wynne is handling her job as Premier of Ontario? A8

9 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrea Horwath is handling her job as NDP Leader? A9

10 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrea Horwath is handling her job as NDP Leader? A10

11 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Patrick Brown is handling his job as Progressive Conservative Leader? A11

12 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Patrick Brown is handling his job as Progressive Conservative Leader? A12

13 On Tuesday, the Ontario Provincial Police laid bribery charges under the Elections Act against two Ontario Liberal Campaign Operatives including the former deputy chief of staff to Kathleen Wynne and CEO of the Ontario Liberal Party. How closely have you been following this story? A13

14 On Tuesday, the Ontario Provincial Police laid bribery charges under the Elections Act against two Ontario Liberal Campaign Operatives including the former deputy chief of staff to Kathleen Wynne and CEO of the Ontario Liberal Party. How closely have you been following this story? A14

15 The OPP allege that two Liberal insiders, including the former deputy chief of staff to Kathleen Wynne, offered a job or appointment to a former Liberal Candidate in Sudbury in exchange for him stepping aside. Premier Kathleen Wynne has previously maintained there was no bribe and that she was not at all involved in these proceedings, no charges have been laid against the Premier. Thinking about everything you have seen, read or heard do you believe Kathleen Wynne was involved in these proceedings or not? A15

16 The OPP allege that two Liberal insiders, including the former deputy chief of staff to Kathleen Wynne, offered a job or appointment to a former Liberal Candidate in Sudbury in exchange for him stepping aside. Premier Kathleen Wynne has previously maintained there was no bribe and that she was not at all involved in these proceedings, no charges have been laid against the Premier. Thinking about everything you have seen, read or heard do you believe Kathleen Wynne was involved in these proceedings or not? A16

17 Patrick Brown, the leader of the PC Party, has called on the Premier to resign over the bribery charges. Do you believe Kathleen Wynne should resign as Premier or not? A17

18 Patrick Brown, the leader of the PC Party, has called on the Premier to resign over the bribery charges. Do you believe Kathleen Wynne should resign as Premier or not? A18

19 A19 SCRIPT If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown NDP led by Andrea Horwath Green Party led by Mike Schreiner Undecided And which party are you leaning towards voting for? [UNDECIDED ONLY] Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown NDP led by Andrea Horwath Green Party led by Mike Schreiner Undecided Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kathleen Wynne is handling her job as Premier of Ontario? Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrea Horwath is handling her job as NDP Leader? Do you approve or disapprove of the way Patrick Brown is handling his job as Progressive Conservative Leader? Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure On Tuesday, the Ontario Provincial Police laid bribery charges under the Elections Act against two Ontario Liberal Campaign Operatives including the former deputy chief of staff to Kathleen Wynne and CEO of the Ontario Liberal Party. How closely have you been following this story? Very Closely Somewhat Closely Not Too Closely Not At All Closely Not Aware The OPP allege that two Liberal insiders, including the former deputy chief of staff to Kathleen Wynne offered a job or appointment to a former Liberal Candidate in Sudbury in exchange for him stepping aside. Premier Kathleen Wynne has previously maintained there was no bribe and that she was not at all involved in these proceedings, no charges have been laid against the Premier. Thinking about everything you have seen, read or heard do you believe Kathleen Wynne was involved in these proceedings or not? Very Involved Somewhat Involved Not Too Involved Not At All Involved Not Sure Patrick Brown, the leader of the PC Party, has called on the Premier to resign over the bribery charges. Do you believe Kathleen Wynne should resign as Premier or not? Yes No Not Sure

20 CALGARY GREENWAY WHITBY Most Accurate Pollster of the Calgary Greenway by election. Most Accurate Pollster of the Whitby by election. SASKATCHEWAN MANITOBA Most Active Pollster of Saskatchewan s general election, top results within MoE. Most Active Pollster of Manitoba s general election, top results within MoE.

21 ONLY WE CALLED THE LIBERAL MAJORITY. I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it s an interview with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a week before we voted. Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013, in defiance of the majority of the polls. His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015 Mainstreet Research B Queen Street East Toronto Ontario M4E 1G3 Canada

22 Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE mainstreetresearch.ca FACEBOOK fb.com/mainstresearch 2016 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved