Third Edition. Gregory C. Chow

Transcription

1 China's Economic Transformation Third Edition Gregory C. Chow WlLEY Blackwell

2 Contents Preface to the Third Edition Part I: Historical Background and General Survey 1 Economic Lessons from History 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Significant Events in Major Historical Dynasties 1.3 The Republic of China, Summary of Historical Lessons 1.5 What History Can Reveal about the Chinese Economy References and Further Reading Questions 2 Experiments with Flanning and Economic Disruptions 2.1 The Communis! Party Rises to Power 2.2 Historical Review: A Model of the Chinese Planned Economy 2.4 The Behavior of Economic Units in a Planned Economy 2.5 Output Flanning in Theory and Practice 2.6 Organization and Administration of Economic Flanning References and Further Reading Questions 3 Economic Reform up to the Mid-1990s 3.1 Why Economic Reform Started in Agriculture 3.3 Reform of State-Owned Enterprises

3 vi Contents 3.4 Price Reform The Banking System Foreign Trade and Investment The Nonstate Sectors Institutional Infrastructure Reform Policies Similar to Those of Taiwan Reasons for the Success of China's Economic Reform Summary 60 Appendix: China's Geography 61 References and Further Reading 63 Questions 63 4 Further Reform up to the 2010s Introduction Enterprise Reform Banking Reform Foreign Trade and Investment during the Asian Financial Crisis The Impact of WTO Membership Reform in Agriculture Rural Poverty Prospects for Reform 85 References and Further Reading 87 Questions 88 Part II: Analysis of the Macroeconomy 89 5 Economic Growth The Neoclassical Model of Economic Growth Data on Output, Capital, and Labor A Review of Regression Analysis Estimating Production Functions for China Use of the Neoclassical Growth Model to Forecast GDP How Large Will the Chinese Economy Be in 2020? Lessons from Forecasting 108 References and Further Reading 108 Questions Economic Fluctuations The Multiplier-Accelerator Model of Economic Fluctuations Dynamic Properties of the Multiplier-Accelerator Model An Econometric Method for Estimating Parameters of Linear Stochastic Equations Estimating a Multiplier-Accelerator Model of the Chinese Economy 116

4 Contents vii 6.5 AVector Autoregression (VAR) System Econometric Models of the Chinese Economy 122 References and Further Reading 122 Questions Macroeconomic Policies Introduction Monetary Policy An Econometric Analysis of Inflation and of Monetary Policy in China Basic Facts about Government Revenue and Expenditure Fiscal Policy 139 References and Further Reading 140 Questions The Effects of Political Movements on the Macroeconomy Specification of a Dynamic Optimization Model of the Chinese Economy The Solution of the Dynamic Optimization Problem Statistical Estimation Measuring the Effects oftwo Political Events Conclusions 156 References and Further Reading 157 Questions 157 Part III: Topics in Economic Development Consumption Trends in Per Capita Consumption Household Expenditure Pattems Rural Per Capita Consumption Expenditures in 1998 by Province Consumption of Housing in Rural and Urban Areas Demand and Supply of Urban Housing 175 References and Further Reading 176 Questions Energy and Environmental Problems and Policies Introduction Environmental Problems in China Laws, Agencies, and Policies for Protecting the Environment Problems of Policy Implementation and Law Enforcement A Study of Industrial Pollution 187

5 viii Contents 10.6 Regulation of China's Industrial Air Pollution Conclusions 191 References and Further Reading 192 Questions Population The Role of Population and Human Capital in Economic Development The Chinese Population and Its Rate of Growth Population Policy Evaluation of China's Population Policy Economic Explanation of the Birth Rate Why the Population Control Policy Should Be Terminated 207 References and Further Reading 207 Questions Human Capital The Importance of Human Capital and Its Measurement Labor Supply and Demand Investment in Human Capital Measuring the Rates of Return to Schooling in China Health Services The Social Weifare System 228 References and Further Reading 229 Questions 230 Part IV: Analysis of Individual Sectors The Banking and Financial System Commercial Banks The People's Bank Factors Affecting the Functioning of the Banking System Possible Weaknesses of the System Possible Directions of Reform Weakness of Commercial Banks and Related Problems Other Financial Institutions The Role of the Chinese Government in Reforming the Financial System 249 References and Further Reading 251 Questions 251

6 Contents ix 14 Shanghai Stock Price Determination Introduction A Model of Stock Price Determination Empirical Findings from the Shanghai Stock Exchange Comparison with Findings for Hong Kong and New York Stocks Concluding Comments 262 References and Further Reading 263 Questions The Behavior of State Enterprises Organization of a State Enterprise under Central Flanning Flanning and Operations of a Large-Scale State Enterprise A Simple Model of a State Enterprise under Central Flanning A Simple Model of a State Enterprise after Initial Reform State Enterprise Restructuring in the Late 1990s and Its Effects on Enterprise Behavior Current State of Chinese State Enterprises 283 References and Further Reading 284 Questions The Nonstate Sectors Relative Growth of Nonstate Sectors Private Enterprises Prior to Economic Conditions for the Growth of Township and Village Enterprises Econometric Measurement of the Relative Efficiency of State Enterprises and TVEs Characteristics of a Free-Market Economy Characteristics of the Chinese Market Ecomomy Role of Entrepreneurs in China's Economic Growth 297 References and Further Reading 299 Questions Foreign Trade Some Statistics of China's Foreign Trade Explanation of Trading Patterns under Free Trade The Determination of Foreign Exchange Rates China's Foreign Trade Policy Problems in Implementing Foreign Trade Policies in the Early 1980s Protectionism in the United States 322 References and Further Reading 324 Questions 324

7 X Contents 18 Foreign Investment The Role of Foreign Investment Historical Developments The State of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as of Policies for the Regulation of Foreign Investment Opportunities and Problems for Foreign Investors How Attractive Is China for Foreign Investment? The Impact of WTO Membership on Foreign Investment China's Investment and Economic Expansion Abroad 341 References and Further Reading 343 Questions 343 Part V: Studie«of Economic Institutions and Infrastructure Laws of Asset Management and Corruption Introduction Laws of Asset Management Managing One's Own Person Managing Physical Assets Managing Assets under the Responsibility System The Misuse of Collectively Owned Land Corruption and Economic Reform Concluding Comments 363 References and Further Reading 364 Questions The Legal System and the Role of Government The Legal System prior to The Legal System since The Role of the Legal System in a Market Economy The Economic Role of Government The Role of Flanning in China's Market Economy The Govemment's Decision Process 382 References and Further Reading 384 Questions The Education System and Policy The Education System prior to The Education System after Education Policy Economics Education Demand for Education 398

8 Contents xi 21.6 Concluding Comments 403 References and Further Reading 403 Questions Lessons from Studying the Chinese Economy Lessons for Understanding the Subject of Economics Lessons from Understanding the Chinese Economy Lessons from Forecasting the Chinese Economy 418 References and Further Reading 423 Questions 424 Index 425