LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT

Transcription

1 LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT Jason Marocchi November 2016

2 WHO WE ARE

3 GRA Everingham is a Perth-based bipartisan independent strategic advisory firm at the forefront of government relations, regulatory and public affairs. We specialise in providing companies and institutions with strategic advice about government, public policy, regulation and stakeholder communications. Our staff are from varied backgrounds including elected government, senior ministerial advisory positions, departmental agencies, industry groups, and the private sector. Our team provides our clients with a unique blend of political and commercial experience. We work with Australian and international clients from a diverse range of industry sectors.

4 Our clients

5 Local government experience Community Connect South Assisted campaign to secure funding for local infrastructure. South West Group Strategic advice, planning and stakeholder engagement. Forum of Regional Councils Key stakeholder relationship building and engagement.

6 Points of discussion WA Political Overview understand the political and fiscal environment. The Election Season how it provides opportunity outside the annual budget process. Influencing election commitments how to get your project on the radar, build community support and become a key election issue. Conclusion are you prepared for March 2017?

7 WA POLITICAL OVERVIEW

8 State of Play Colin Barnett and the Liberals are struggling in the opinion polls. Very poor second term in Government. Reputation for economic management is damaged. Questions over leadership and succession. Mark McGowan leads the polls and enjoys strong personal support. Building the case that he can lead the State. Factional influence on policy development. Requires an historic 10 per cent swing to win Government.

9 WA s Fiscal Environment Record $3.9billion deficit forecast for , following revenue write-downs of $14.7billion since the Budget. Worst set of Budget figures in State s history. State debt will reach $33billion next year and grow to more than $40billion by Government will take asset sales program to the next election with the aim of raising $16billion, including proceeds from the sale of Western Power and Horizon s Pilbara assets. Treasurer Mike Nahanhas blamed a massive fall in revenue and GST receipts for the decline in the State s finances and continues to campaign for GST reform as a way to restore the Budget to health. March election has the potential to put further strain on the Budget and increase debt and deficit through election spending commitments.

10 Key Seats Target seats for Labor 7 in the bag? The challenge for Labor 3 more needed Seat Margin Seat Margin West Swan 0.9% * Belmont 1% Forrestfield 2.2% Collie-Preston 2.9%* Perth 2.8% Swan Hills 3.7% Morley 4.7% Mount Lawley 8.9% Balcatta 7.1% *notional Liberal seat after redistribution Bicton 10% Joondalup 10.4% Balcatta 7.1% Mount Lawley 8.9% Bicton 10% Kalamunda 10.3% Joondalup 10.4% Southern River 10.9% Wanneroo 11% Burns Beach 11.3% Bunbury 12.2% Darling Range 13.1% Wanneroo 11%

11 Primary Vote Newspoll % Election Dec-13 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 May-16 Nov-16 Liberal/National Labor Greens Others LNP: 40% Labor: 41% Greens: 9% Other: 10%

12 Two Party-Preferred Newspoll % Election Dec-13 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 May-16 Nov-16 Coalition Labor Coalition: 48% Labor: 52%

13 Better Premier Newspoll % Mar-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 May-16 Nov-16 Barnett McGowan Barnett: 29% McGowan: 47%

14 March Poll 2PP Liberals 44% Labor 56% Primary Liberals 34.8% Labor 36.7% Nationals 4.9% Preferred Premier Barnett 39% McGowan 61% ReachTel Comparison September Poll 2PP Liberals 49% Labor 51% Primary Liberals 38.2% Labor 36.5% Nationals 5.4% Preferred Premier Barnett 45% McGowan 55% October Poll 2PP Liberals 48% Labor 52% Primary Liberals 35.9% Labor 36.7% Nationals 6.1% Preferred Premier Barnett 44.4% McGowan 55.6% 13% swing to Labor ALP wins 18seats Labor wins Government 8% swing to Labor ALP wins 8seats Liberals hold Government 9% swing to Labor ALP wins 9seats Liberals hold Government

15 What does the Federal election tell us? Analysis by GRA Everingham of WA voting patterns at the 2016 Federal election results in Labor winning the following State seats at next year s election Belmont(Labor wins seat on 6.09% 2PP swing) Forrestfield(Labor wins seat on 4.03% 2PP swing) Morley(Labor wins seat on 10.11% 2PP swing) Perth(Labor wins seat on 4.04% 2PP swing) Southern River(Labor wins seat on 16.02% 2PP swing) West Swan*(Labor wins seat on 7.89% swing) Seats in Play Labor closing in on the following Balcatta(4.7%swingtoALP Liberalsholdonby2.4%) Bunbury(8.65%swingtoALP Liberalsholdonby3.45%) BurnsBeach(8.49%swingtoALP Liberalsholdonby2.81%) SwanHills(1.71%swingtoALP Liberalsholdonby1.99%) Wanneroo(9.26%swingtoALP Liberalsholdonby1.74%) DarlingRange(9.13%swingtoALP Liberalsholdonby3.97%) *notionally a Liberal seat after redistribution

16 What does the Federal election tell us? Analysis by GRA Everingham of WA voting patterns at the 2016 Federal election results shows the Nationals in trouble in the bush: Roe(35% primary vote swing against the Nationals) North West Central(32% primary vote swing against the Nationals) Pilbara(28% primary vote swing against the Nationals) Kalgoorlie(23% primary vote swing against the Nationals) Moore(23% primary vote swing against the Nationals) Central Wheatbelt(14% primary vote swing against the Nationals) Geraldton(13% primary vote swing against the Nationals) Significant One Nation vote in Pilbara booths for the Senate, ranging between 12-17% Difficult to compare Federal and State elections, but Nationals vote is struggling in the bush. One Nation could be the beneficiary. This could explain change of leadership and bold policy ideas from Brendon Grylls trying to differentiate the party from the Liberals.

17 Betting Markets Crownbet 2017 Sworn in Government Libs/Nats $2.75 Labor $1.45 Sportsbet Colin Barnett to be Premier at election Yes $1.87 No $1.87 Sportsbet Party of Next Premier Libs/Nats $3.30 Labor $1.30 Sportsbet Premier at next State election Colin Barnett $1.87 Liza Harvey $3.00 Dean Nalder $5.50 Joe Francis $8.00 Mike Nahan $21.00

18 THE ELECTION SEASON

19 An opportunity An election provides local governments with an opportunity to win political supportfor projects. Election commitments are not subject to the usual bureaucratic process of securing money from Government. Election commitments are decisions made by political parties to secure votes usually in marginal seats. Proponents must convince political operatives that their project will provide an electoral advantage. Objective to win support of both major political parties. Risk that the wrong side comes to the party.

20 Some good examples Forrestfield-Airport Link. Armadale Road upgrade. Arena Joondalup redevelopment. Sporting facilities, roads, rail, police stations, schools and hospitals are the usual suspects.

21 there are also some broken ones Perth MAX Light Rail Originally promised as part of Barnett Government s re-election pitch in Government delayed $2 billion project and then cancelled it in June Ellenbrook rail line Promised by both major parties at 2008 State election -cost of $850 million. Construction scheduled to start in 2012 and finish in In May 2010 Premier Colin Barnett announced cancellation of project.

22 Identifying a project One key project not a shopping list. Understand the political environment are you in a marginal seat, how can you provide electoral advantage? Understand the fiscal environment there is no money in the kitty, so perhaps hold back the billion dollar ask. Love thy neighbour can adjoining local councils provide their support to your project? It s better to hunt in packs. Does the project have strong community support?

23 Building political support Your project must have the support of the local MP and candidate. If your project is not on their wishlist its highly unlikely that you will secure a commitment. Win support of relevant Minister/Shadow Minister. Never miss an opportunity to advocate engage stakeholders directly. Express the benefits of the project not only community benefits but potential political mileage. Speak to both sides the objective is to secure bi-partisan support. One side will always commit first want to convince the other side to neutralise(or better) any political advantage.

24 Building community support Community support is the key community support = votes. If political parties cannot see the potential for votes from your project, the probability of securing an election commitment diminishes. Build an issue in local press/community which can be solved by an election commitment traffic congestion, lack of sports fields, etc. Keep the issue bubbling -narrative should be developed over several months. Engage the community third party endorsements, letters, s, petitions. More community involvement = more votes = higher probability of an election commitment.

25 Tactics Political engagement - talk to everyone who matters. Media use to build community support, not to slam either side. Polling demonstrate community support/votes. Social media use only in the context of building community support. Advertisingcampaign must focus on engaging the community, otherwise a waste of time. Third party endorsement, coalition-building and champions. Website and stakeholder generation has to generate significant numbers or could undo claims of community support. Grass roots campaigning flyers at train stations, door-knocking, petitions, town hall meetings.

26 Not in a marginal seat does that mean that we should just give up? Every MP and candidate wants to be able to deliver something for their community at election time. You can still have a win for the community just be realistic of your ask. Political parties will not commit to big ticket items in safe seats, but there are plenty of community facilities which could be funded. Regional councils should target the Royalties for Regions fund.

27 CONCLUSION

28 Are you prepared for March 2017? Understand the current political and fiscal environment. Prioritise ideally one key project. Support of local MP/candidate is critical. All tactics should be focused on building community support. Those in safe seats can still achieve outcomes for their community. Engage stakeholders directly, not just through the media. Community support = votes = higher probability of an election commitment.